股東會前巴菲特受訪全集：伯克希爾處於“換擋”期（中英文實錄）
美東時間4月30日，雅虎財經繼續更新雅虎財經總編輯安迪·塞爾沃（Andy Serwer）於3月10日專訪巴菲特的視頻內容。《紅週刊》進行了文字整理，期待能幫助到讀者朋友。
內容摘要：
富國銀行正經歷很多企業都會經歷的過程，作為企業負責人發現錯誤要及時、高效的解決。
超低利率甚至負利率不會讓我感到害怕，但會讓我感到困惑。
未來伯克希爾會有幾十億或者難以準確計數的資金將用於投資疫苗或者教育行業。
找到一個合適的CEO併為其可能發生的事情做好準備是董事會的最終責任。
每天做能讓自己開心的事情能夠對“健康長壽”起到很大作用。
不會投資特斯拉，讓電動車替代燃油車可能會阻礙經濟發展。
蒂姆·庫克非常耐心地花了幾個小時，試圖把我（使用手機的水平）提升到兩歲孩童的平均水平，但我沒能成功。
FAANG公司，除了Netflix需要資金其他都不需要大量資本投入，我不認為它們股價出現了明顯的泡沫。
以下為此次專訪實錄及中文編譯：
ANDY SERWER：Hello， everyone. I'm Andy Serwer. Welcome to “Influencers”and welcome to our very special guest， Warren Buffett， Chairman andCEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren， nice to see you.
安迪·塞爾沃：大家好， 我是安迪·塞爾沃。歡迎來到《領袖》，歡迎我們的特邀嘉賓，伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司董事長兼首席執行官沃倫·巴菲特。沃倫，很高興見到你。
WARREN BUFFETT：Good to see you.
沃倫·巴菲特：很高興見到你。
3月份以來的美股暴跌
沒有2008年或1987年那麼糟糕
ANDY SERWER:So it's March 10, and it's the day after the stockmarket crash. The Dow was down over 2000 points. Oil cratered to $30 a barrelor so. The 10-year bond went to below 0.5％. What the heck is going on， WarrenBuffett？
安迪·塞爾沃：今天是3月10日，股市崩盤的第二天，道瓊斯指數下跌超過2000點，油價跌至每桶30美元左右，10年期國債跌至0.5％以下，到底發生了什麼，沃倫·巴菲特？
WARREN BUFFETT:I told you many years ago， if you stickaround long enough， you'll see everything in markets. And it may have taken meto 89 years of age to throw this one into the experience. But markets， if youhave to be open second by second， they react to news in a big time way. It'snot like the market for real estate or farms or things of that sort.
沃倫·巴菲特:很多年前我就告訴過你，如果你在市場上呆的時間足夠長，您什麼事情都會遇到。但如今這個場面也是我活了89歲第一次遇到。但市場就是如此，新聞每時每刻都在影響著股價，而且市場對新聞的反應很大。我的意思是，它不像房地產或農場之類的市場。
ANDY SERWER:Does this remind you of any other time？
安迪·塞爾沃：這次暴跌有沒有讓您想起以往哪些經歷？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I've certainly been a fair number of timeswhen panic has reigned in Wall Street. And October 19, 1987 and the periodaround it，there was panic at the close of business on Monday， October 19, mostof the specialist firms， which were important in those days on the New YorkStock Exchange， were broke. And the next morning， there was a check to theclearinghouse in Chicago that didn't get there.
沃倫·巴菲特：我在華爾街確實經歷過很多次這種類似的情形。1987年10月19日“黑色星期一”，出現了恐慌，大多數當時在紐約證券交易所很重要的專業公司都破產了。第二天早上，給到芝加哥清算所的支票都沒有完成。
And sometime late in the morning，a decision， I think made thedecision， we're going to stay open. But it was really close. That was， and， ofcourse， the financial panic. There were， you had 35 million people on September1 that weren't worried at all about their money market accounts. On September15 or 16, they were all.
在早上晚些時候，（交易所做了）一個決定：我們將繼續開市。但它真的很接近金融恐慌。另外還有（一次），有3500萬人在9月1日還根本不擔心他們的貨幣市場賬戶，到了9月15日-16日，（賬戶資金）全部消失了。
疫情不會阻止美國或世界的進步
ANDY SERWER:How concerned are you about the coronavirus situation，Warren？
安迪·塞爾沃：沃倫，你是否會擔心新冠肺炎病毒？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you've got to defer to the doctors onthat. But you get an all these figures about flu regularly kills 20 times asmany people in this country as， or 40 times maybe as much as we've seen in theway of deaths， even more than that. But it is a pandemic. It is really spread.So we've got something that we don't know how long it will be with us. We don'tknow how severe it'll be. But there will be uncertainty about that for aconsiderable period of time. There has to be.
沃倫·巴菲特：這方面必須聽醫生的意見。我們從以往數據中可以看到，流感病毒導致的死亡率是國家正常死亡率的20倍甚至40倍，甚至更多。但這是一種流行病，它符合我們對流行病的定義。但現在沒有人知道它將持續多久，或者蔓延擴散的規模有多大。但在相當長的一段時間內，這方面仍將存在不確定性。
ANDY SERWER: What precautions are you taking personally？Have you changed any of your habits？
安迪·塞爾沃：您個人採取了什麼預防措施了嗎？或者為此改變了自己的哪些習慣？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I'm drinking a little more Coca-Colaactually. Seems to have warded off everything else in life.I'm 89. I just hadtwo different doctors tell me how I'm in much better shape than I was a fewyears ago. I'm not sure what I'm doing to get better. But by accident， I had anannual heart check where I wear something around my waist for a couple days.The guy said it's never been better. So I really， I'm the probabilities guy inmy nature. So I， there's going to be to 2.8 million deaths this year. At age89, I'm a little more likely than I was in that group.
沃倫·巴菲特：實際上，我（只是）多喝了一點可口可樂。這似乎可以避免生活中的一切問題。我已經89歲了，我只是需要不同的醫生告訴我，我現在的身體狀況好多了。我不確定如何來讓身體更健康，但出乎意料的是，我在每年的心臟檢查中，那段時間我需要把一些儀器在我的腰上掛幾天。體檢數據顯示，我的身體從來沒有這麼好過。我是天生的概率論者。今年將有280萬人死亡。在89歲的時候，我比以前更有可能（屬於這類人）了。
But 2.8 million， what we had so far，it will grow. But I've alwaysfelt a pandemic would happen in some time. I've actually used that term indescribing things that can interrupt the progress of not only this country， butthe world. It won't stop the progress of the country or the world.this is aterrible event that's occurring. We don't know how terrible. It may not turnout to be that big a deal when we get through， but it may turn out to be a verybig deal， and we just don't know. And I certainly don't know. And nobody knows.
但是280萬死亡人數是目前的，它還會增長。但我總覺得大流行病遲早會發生。我確實用過這個詞來描述那些不僅會阻礙這個國家進步，而且會阻礙整個世界進步的事情。但（此次疫情）它不會阻止國家或世界的進步。我的意思是，這是一個正在發生的可怕的事件。但我們不知道它有多可怕。當我們度過難關的時候，它可能就不會變成一件大事，但它存在變成一件大事的可能，只是我們還不知道而已。我當然不知道，而且也沒人知道。
But there will be other things that happen in the world in thenext five， 10, 20 years. That's the way the world works. It's not a totallyeven course. The progress of mankind has been incredible. And that won't stop. Youflew out here yesterday or today and you flew over a country that 250 yearsago， there wasn't anything here. That's only three of my lifetimes. And therewasn't anything here. And now you've got all these beautiful farms and you'vegot 260 million vehicles in the country. And you've got 80 million owneroccupied homes and and you've got 155 million or whatever it is million peopleworking.It's incredible.
但在未來5年，10年，20年，世界上還會發生其他事情。世界就是這樣運轉的。這並不是一個完全公平的過程。人類的進步是不可思議的，人們進步的步伐不會停止。我的意思是，你昨天或今天飛到這裡，你飛到一個250年前這裡什麼都沒有的國家。在我祖上三輩的時候，這裡什麼都沒有。現在這裡有這麼多漂亮的農場，全國有2億6千萬輛車。8000萬人擁有自己的房屋，1.55億人在工作。這太不可思議了。
When I had a medical check the other day， I went to incrediblemedical facilities that are just two or three minutes from here. And thatwasn't here-- wasn't even here 100 years ago. So we keep making progress.
你知道，那天我做了一次體檢，我去了離這裡只有兩三分鐘路程的醫療機構。250前年這裡肯定是沒有的，甚至100年前也是沒有的。所以我們一直在進步。
We haven't forgotten howto make progress in this country. And we haven't lost interest in makingprogress. And that will benefit to varying degrees， all kinds of people equallyaround the world. But there will be interruptions. And I don't know when theywill occur， and I don't know how deep they will occur. I do know they willoccur from time to time. And I also know all that we'll come out better on theother end.
我們沒有忘記這個國家是如何取得進步的，我們依然對取得進步興趣高漲，這將在不同程度上對全世界所有人都有好處。但也會有中斷，儘管我不知道這種情況什麼時候會到來，我也不知道會發展到什麼程度，我只知道這種情況會不時發生。我也知道，如果我們發展進程不被打斷，一切都會更好。
富國銀行正經歷很多企業都會經歷的過程
作為企業負責人發現錯誤要及時、高效的解決
ANDY SERWER:And then what about the banks？ And they have been hitawfully hard.
安迪·塞爾沃：你對銀行怎麼看？它們（股價）受到了嚴重的打擊。
WARREN BUFFETT:They got hammered. Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，它們（銀行）遭受了重創。
ANDY SERWER:Because of rates and exposure to the energysector. Right？
安迪·塞爾沃：因為利率和能源部門的風險敞口。對吧？
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. And you don't know what other exposurethere is.The credit standards have been pretty darn good. And the quality ofwhat's on the books has been terrific， and the liquidity， and all of that. Thebanks are in a whole different situation than they were during the-- 10 or 11years ago. But there was-- you don't know the dominos that topple when airlinesget bad. And then that affects energy demand， because they're just-- they'reusing less fuel than they were three weeks ago.
沃倫 巴菲特：是的。不知道還有什麼其他的風險。信用標準已經相當不錯了。賬面上的資產質量很好，流動性也很好，等等。銀行現在的情況與10年前或者11年前完全不同。但是，當航空公司陷入困境的時候，不清楚多米諾骨牌是否會倒下。（疫情）影響了能源需求，因為它們（航空公司）比三週前用的燃料少了。
So there's ripple effects.And there always will be in recessions. That's the nature of recessions， is youget ripple effects. We get ripple effects on the railroad. but there's just--there's less intermodal traffic moving now because of the supply chaininterruptions and all that sort of thing. But that's-- you look at， again， in1942 when I bought my stock. The Philippines were about to fall.
這就是連鎖反應。而且總會有衰退，衰退的本質就是連鎖反應發生了。我們看到鐵路領域已經受到連鎖反應（影響），只是由於供應鏈中斷之類的原因，現在的多式聯運運輸減少了。但是，你再看一下，在1942年，我當時買股票的時候——菲律賓即將淪陷。
[LAUGHS] and the day I bought it， the Dow literally was down 2％.And 2％， that was only two points， literally. It broke 100 on the downside.[LAUGHS] But 2％， I felt it.I went to school in the morning and I bought thesethree shares. And when I came home at night， I already had a loss in them.[LAUGHS]
我是說（笑），我買的那天，道瓊斯指數真的下跌了2％，2％僅僅是兩個百分點，（那感覺就像）下跌了100點（笑）。就是那2％（的下跌），我印象深刻。我早上去學校時買了這三隻股票，當我晚上回家的時候，我已經失去了它們（笑）。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah. Well， I'm glad you kept with it.Because other people might have been discouraged.
安迪·塞爾沃：我很高興看到你堅持下來了，因為其他人很可能會氣餒。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. But，all the other kids in the 7thgrade had their money in something else. [LAUGHS]
沃倫 巴菲特：是的。我的意思是，其他七年級的孩子都把錢花在別的地方了。（笑）
ANDY SERWER:Right. Getting back to banks for just onesecond， Warren.
安迪·塞爾沃：沒錯，沃倫，讓我們先回到銀行。
WARREN BUFFETT:Sure.
沃倫 巴菲特：好的。
ANDY SERWER:Are you getting frustrated with Wells Fargo？
安迪·塞爾沃：你對富國銀行感到失望了嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I think they've been through a lot ofproblems. But I don't think that the fundamental franchise and all of that，I'mfine with that. They-- I forget whether it's in one out of every threehouseholds in the country，they are the mortgage servicer.That's huge. It went throughsomething that various other companies-- GEICO， in the early '70s， got-- hadits troubles. American Express， in 1964 when we got into it， it had the saladoil scandal， which everybody's forgotten about. But it was a terrifying eventthen.
沃倫·巴菲特:嗯，我認為它們已經經歷了很多問題。但這並不意味著，我對基本的特許經營和所有這些都很滿意。我忘記了美國是不是每三個家庭中就有一個是抵押貸款服務者。這是數量是巨大的。富國銀行正經歷一些其他公司遭遇的事情，例如1970s的GEICO也遭遇了麻煩，1964年的美國運通——當時發生了色拉油醜聞（現在大家都忘了這件事），這些在當時都是非常可怕的事件。
So something will happen at some point [LAUGHS]. You can't run aplace with 395,000 people and not know that something that's happening all thetime. And you just hope you catch it fast. And the moral of the Wells Fargostory is when you hear about something， you've got act fact. And you can haveincentives out there that are incentivizing the wrong thing. And we've hadthem. Everybody's had them.
許多事情都會在某個時刻發生（笑）。你不能管理著一個有39.5萬人口的地方，卻不知道一直在發生的事情，你會希望自己能快點抓住重點。富國銀行的故事告訴我們，當你聽到某件事時，你已經有了事實的行動的。你可能從它那裡得到了激勵，警惕錯誤事情的發生。我們有過這種經歷，每個人都有這種經歷。
Anybody that has a sales force makes mistakes sometimes in whatthey incentivize. And bad practices will spread if not jumped on. And that'swhat，you saw at Wells. I don't see how in the world they made any money out ofthe phony accounts [LAUGHS]. But，the cost-- again， there's a ripple effect.
我的意思是，任何有銷售團隊的人有時都會在他們激勵的事情上犯錯誤。而且，如果不立即採取行動，不好的做法將會蔓延。這就是你在威爾斯看到的。我看不出他們究竟是怎麼從假賬戶中賺到錢的（笑）。但是，成本也有連鎖反應。
When something goes wrong at Berkshire， if it doesn't getcorrected there'll be more problems subsequently. And when I was a Salomon，Charlie gave me the form. He said， get it right， get it fast， get it out， getit over. And any time you see a problem， and you're a responsible partly incorporate America， that means just get it right， get it fast， get it out， getit over. And- don't skip-- [LAUGHS]And just put that right in front of you and goto work on it.
當伯克希爾公司出現問題時，如果不能得到糾正，接下來就會出現更多的問題。當我還在所羅門的時候，查理給了我一張表格。他說，準確、高效地把問題找出來並解決掉。如果你是美國一家企業的負責人，任何時候你看到一個問題，那就意味著你要正確、高效地把問題找出來並解決掉。記住不要越過它們（笑）。把它放在你面前，那就解決掉它。
ANDY SERWER:OK. Fair enough. Let's switch over and talk aboutoil. You are an investor in the sector through this Occidental Petroleum deal
安迪·塞爾沃：好的，那我們換個話題，談談石油吧。你投資過西方石油公司，你是這個領域的投資者。
WARREN BUFFETT:Right.
沃倫·巴菲特:是的
長期不必過分擔心需求下降
石油公司仍是投資的好地方
ANDY SERWER:From last year. You put in $10 billion
安迪·塞爾沃：從去年開始你投入了100億美元。
WARREN BUFFETT:Exactly.
沃倫·巴菲特:沒錯。
ANDY SERWER:And maybe some more after that. I know you getpreferred dividends. But that investment has to be under water at this point.And what's your thinking？
安迪·塞爾沃：後續你可能會（在西方石油公司上）有更多的投資。我知道你會得到優先股息。但這些投資必須是私下進行的。你是怎麼想的？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， that the $10 billion is a preferredstock with warrants. And there is nomarket in it.
沃倫·巴菲特:這100億美元是有認股權證的優先股。但不受市場影響。
ANDY SERWER:OK.
安迪·塞爾沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:It's a private deal. But we also have about 2％ ofthe common stock. And that's down significantly. And as I said when I didit，the biggest variable is the price of oil. And I don't know the price of oil.And every day it gets quoted. If you have an opinion on oil， you can buy orsell oil either one year out or two years out or three years out or something ofthe sort.
沃倫·巴菲特:這是一筆私人交易，但是我們也有2％的普通股。這部分投資收益是顯著下降的。我在做這筆投資的時候，最大的變量就是石油的價格，我無法預測石油價格每天的漲跌和變化。但如果你對石油有自己的看法，你可以持有石油公司一年、兩年、三年等等。
And when oil was in the 30s， there was a lot of agony in the oilpatch. And the math just changes terrifically.It just doesn't pay to drill in alot of areas. And the Saudis can turn out a lot， but with practically nooperating costs or， they get very， very， very cheap operations.
在1930s的時候，石油行業備受煎熬，石油價格變化非常大。在很多地方鑽探並不划算。沙特阿拉伯可以生產很多石油，但這些石油的生產幾乎不需要運營成本，運營成本非常非常低。
ANDY SERWER:Between that war between the Saudis and the Russians，and then also perhaps the secular decline of demand given concerns aboutclimate change， is this really a great place to invest？
安迪·塞爾沃：在沙特和俄羅斯之間的戰爭，以及考慮到氣候變化帶來的長期需求下降，（石油公司）這真是一個投資的好地方嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I don't think the secular demand will changethat much. But， certainly， the immediate demand has changed. The airlines needless. And people drive less if they're working out of their homes. And you canchange-- when you're talking aboutsomething close to 100 million barrels a day， if you change it by 5％，that ishuge.
沃倫·巴菲特:我認為長期需求不會有太大變化。但可以肯定的是，當前的需求已經發生了變化。航空公司需求減少。如果人們在外工作，開車的次數也會減少。這也可以改變，假設當前每天石油產量接近1億桶，如果改變5％，那也將是很大的。
可替代能源符合未來發展方向
ANDY SERWER:I was reading in your annual letter， on the otherhand， that you're so proud of Berkshire Hathaway Energy， which is so big inwind power and has this whole different business model. So you think thatalternatives actually have a real future？
安迪·塞爾沃：另外，我在你寫給的《致股東的信》中看到，你為伯克希爾·哈撒韋能源公司感到非常自豪，它在風能領域非常強大，並且有著完全不同的商業模式。所以你認為可替代能源真的有未來嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， alternatives have a future， and they arethe future， over time. But you can't change the base of the world. You've got260 million vehicles on the road， or whatever number it is in the UnitedStates， and I don't know how many around the world. And they're not changingwhat they use tomorrow [LAUGHS] .And the average age of the American vehicle，the auto， I think is 11 to 12 years， something like that.
沃倫 巴菲特:哦，可替代能源是有前景的，隨著時間的推移，它們就將是能源行業的未來。你不可能改變這個世界的運行基礎，美國大概有2億6千萬輛車在路上——或者是其他數字，我不知道世界上有多少輛車在路上。他們不會改變明天使用的東西（笑）。你知道，美國汽車的平均使用年齡，差不多11年~12年。
And so the world can't change dramatically. And if anybody thinksyou can change energy sources 10％ at a year， it just doesn't work that way.Butthe world is going in the right direction in terms of working towardminimization of carbon.
所以世界不可能發生翻天覆地的變化。如果有人認為你可以每年改變10％的能源，那是行不通的。但是世界正在朝著正確的方向前進——努力減少碳排放。
不會投資特斯拉
讓電動車替代燃油車可能會阻礙經濟發展
ANDY SERWER:Speaking of those cars，look at Tesla andwhat Elon Musk is doing.That kind of is a revolution. Right？
安迪·塞爾沃：談到車，我們看下特斯拉和埃隆·馬斯克正在做什麼吧。這是一場革命。對吧？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it's an important change. But if youguessed on the penetration of electric cars-- let's say we， sell 17 million orsomething year in 2030, when I'll be 100 years old. I'd be surprised if morethan a third of those would be electric.That's 2/3 of that cars plus all theones in the total vehicles on the road， it still might be 10％ electric orsomething like that， worldwide.
沃倫·巴菲特:這是一個重要的改變。但是如果你猜電動汽車的普及程度，假設我們在2030年銷售1700萬輛左右，那時我將100歲。如果其中超過三分之一是電動的，我會很驚訝。可能的情況是，全世界佔比2/3以上的車會是汽車，剩下的是約10％的電動汽車，以及其他動力汽車。
you can't change this mass of transportation. You can't change itin a year or two. It is changing， and it should change. But in terms of justthe math of replacing it-- if we said we're going to junk all the cars we have，the economy would stop. we can't producethat. We couldn't replace it.
你不可能在一兩年內改變交通方式。是的，交通方式正在改變，也應該改變，但是就替換它的數學問題來說——如果我們說我們要丟棄我們所有的汽車，經濟就會停擺。因此我們不能（停止）生產它們（傳統燃油汽車），我們也做不到替換它。
ANDY SERWER:What do you think of Elon Musk， though？ Haveyou met him？ And would you invest in Tesla？
安迪·塞爾沃：你怎麼看埃隆·馬斯克？你見過他嗎？你會投資特斯拉嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:[LAUGHS] Well， I think you're trying to baitme a little bit.
沃倫·巴菲特:（笑）嗯，我覺得你是想讓我上鉤。
ANDY SERWER:I'm just asking you. You can say no， no， andno or yes， yes， and yes.
安迪·塞爾沃：（笑）我只是問你。你可以說“不"，或“是”。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， listen， he's done some remarkablethings.
沃倫·巴菲特:不，聽著，他做了一些了不起的事情。
ANDY SERWER:Have you met him？
安迪·塞爾沃：你見過他？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， yeah. He's joined The Giving Pledge someyears ago. That-- I've only met him once or twice. But， yeah， I've talked with him， but not for quite awhile.
沃倫·巴菲特:哦，是的。他幾年前加入了“捐贈誓言”，我只見過他一兩次。是的，不久之前我們會過面。
ANDY SERWER:And would you invest in Tesla？
安迪·塞爾沃：你會投資特斯拉嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:No.
沃倫·巴菲特:不會。
負利率讓我感到困惑
這將降低股票投資最低預期回報率
ANDY SERWER:OK. Let's switch over and talk about bondyields and interest rates. Because that's a crazy subject right now.
安迪·塞爾沃：好的。讓我們來討論一下債券收益率和利率。這是一個瘋狂的話題。
WARREN BUFFETT:It is really crazy.
沃倫·巴菲特:這的確很瘋狂。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah. So what is your thinking on that？
安迪·塞爾沃：是的，那你怎麼看？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know [LAUGHS]. I have never beenable to predict interest rates， and I've never tried. Charlie and I， we believein trying to function on what，or to focus on what's knowable and important. Now interest rates areimportant， but we don't think they're knowable. And there are some things thatare-- it just gets back to something-- who was it？ Don Rumsfeld or something[LAUGHS]
沃倫·巴菲特:我不知道（笑）。我從來不去預測利率，也從來沒試過。查理和我，我們相信嘗試著去做什麼，或者專注於什麼是可知的和重要的。利率很重要，但我們不認為它是可知的。有些事情是——它只是回到常識——誰能預測得準？唐·拉姆斯菲爾德（名言：不知道自己不知道）？（笑）
ANDYSERWER:Knowns knowns and unknown knows and unknown unknowns.
安迪·塞爾：知之為知之，不知為不知。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah， and all that.And the question is thebox that says knowns and important。
沃倫·巴菲特:是的，完全正確。問題是同一個盒子上，可能同時寫著“可知”和“重要”。
WARREN BUFFETT:Is there anything in that box？ And can youtell what's in that box and what isn't in that box？ And that's what I callknowing your circle of competence. And my circle of competence doesn't includethe ability to predict interest rates a day from now or a year from now or fiveyears from now. So I say， can I function without knowing that？ It's the sameway as predicting what business is going to do or the stock market's going todo. I can't do any of those things. But that doesn't mean I can't do wellinvesting over time.
沃倫·巴菲特:盒子裡有什麼東西嗎？你能說出那個盒子裡有什麼，沒有什麼嗎？這就是我所說的瞭解你的能力圈。我的能力範圍不包括預測一天以後，一年以後，五年以後的利率的能力。所以我能在不知道這些的（要素的）情況下工作嗎？這和預測股市走勢是一樣的。我不能做這些事。但這並不意味著我不能長期做好投資。
ANDY SERWER:Things have changed. They're different nowbecause rates are so low.And you have negative rates.
安迪·塞爾：事情已經改變了。它們現在不同了，因為利率很低。甚至還有負利率。
WARREN BUFFETT:It's unbelievable.
沃倫·巴菲特:這難以置信。
ANDY SERWER:And then you were talking about EdgarLaurence Smith and his discovery about bonds versus retained earnings. And thenI think you were saying that it makes for-- as far as central banks， it makesno sense to lend at 1.4％ and then to have 2％ inflation.
安迪·塞爾：你談到了埃德加·勞倫斯·史密斯和他對於債券與留存收益的發現。我記得你說過，對於央行來說，以1.4％的利率放貸，2％的通脹率是沒有意義的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it doesn't make sense for you to buy bondsif somebody is telling you that they're going to try and destroy the unit inwhich the bond[LAUGHS] , the promise is included. They're going to try to destroy 2％ of thata year.
沃倫·巴菲特:嗯，如果有人告訴你，他們將試圖摧毀債券管理部門，你購買債券是沒有意義的（笑），也包括所謂的承諾。（其實）他們只是想要每年減少那2％（的利息）。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞爾：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:And for you to now pay，now receive maybe a half apercent and pay taxes on it.
沃倫·巴菲特:現在你來支付，可能得到0.5％的收益，還要為此納稅。
ANDY SERWER:Right.so where do you think these low superrates are going to go， and negative rates？just what are the implications on？
安迪·塞爾：是的。那你認為這些超級低的利率會去向哪裡，負利率的去向是哪裡？這暗示了什麼？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know.I would say that's the mostimportant question in the world. And I don't know the answer. [LAUGHS]If weknew the answer， it wouldn't be the most important question.
沃倫·巴菲特:我不知道。我認為這是世界上最重要的問題，可我不知道答案。（笑）如果我們知道答案，它就不是最重要的問題了。
ANDY SERWER:I don't like that.
安迪·塞爾：我不喜歡那樣（超低利率）。
WARREN BUFFETT:[LAUGHS] No， but it's true.
沃倫·巴菲特:不，但這是真的（笑）。
ANDY SERWER:Right.So let me ask this way， What hasinvesting in equities changed given the interest rate environment？ It makesequities look super cheap.
安迪·塞爾：好的，那在利率環境下，投資股票有什麼變化嗎？這使得股票看起來超級便宜。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， it reduces the hurdle rate.
沃倫·巴菲特:不，它降低了最低預期回報率。
WARREN BUFFETT:That's why they like to decrease it， is thatit pushes asset values higher. Because， obviously， if you promise to pay mesomething at 3％ a year， that would have been a terrible instrument for me toown，almost any time in history. But today， if you're good for it， it'sfabulous. [LAUGHS]
沃倫·巴菲特:這就是為什麼他們喜歡降低利率，因為這會推高資產價值。因為，很明顯——在歷史上的任何時候，如果你答應以每年3％的利率支付給我，那對我來說將是一個可怕的工具。但今天，如果你做得好，那才是神話。（笑）
ANDY SERWER:Do negative rates scare you， Warren？
安迪·塞爾：負利率會讓你感到害怕嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:They puzzle me， but they don't scare me.
沃倫·巴菲特:不會讓我感到害怕，只是會讓我很困惑。
蘋果是一家偉大的公司
具有令人不可思議的商業模式
ANDY SERWER:OK. Fair enough. I want to switch over toApple， one of your biggest holdings.
安迪·塞爾沃：是的，很公平。（接下來）我想（把話題）切換到蘋果公司，這是你們最大的持股之一。
WARREN BUFFETT:Mm-hmm.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯。
ANDY SERWER:Does-- does the amount of shareholderinterest in this company concern you or Todd or Ted？ In other words， the marketcapitalization basically relative to the S&；；P 500. Is that something youlook at？
安迪·塞爾沃：這家公司（蘋果）大量的股東權益是否與你、託德或泰德有關？換句話說，（蘋果公司）的市值基本上與標普500指數相關聯（《紅週刊》記者注：蘋果公司市值佔標普500指數的權重在5％左右），這是你所看重的嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you look at everything and relate oneto another. I mean， that's the nature of markets. So you're always trying tothink about A， what's in my circle of competence， and then what makes the mostsense that's within that circle. But the important thing is know where theperimeter of the circle.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，人們總會把自己看到的事情進行相互聯繫。我的意思是，這就是市場的本質。所以你總是想著，什麼（A或者其他）在我的能力圈之內，然後（思考）在（自己的）能力圈裡，什麼是最有意義的。其實，最重要的你要時刻明白自己能力圈在哪裡。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞爾沃：對。
WARREN BUFFETT:I mean， that's way more important than how big thecircle is or the whole bunch of other factors. So I think Apple is within mycircle of competence. I think it's at an incredible business run by a fellowthat's one of the great managers of all time. And he was underrated for awhile， but now he's being seen for what he really is. It's an astounding-- youcould almost-- if we had a--
沃倫·巴菲特：我是說，這比能力圈究竟有多大或任何其他因素都更重要。我認為，蘋果公司是在我的能力圈之內的。我認為這是一個由有史以來最偉大的經理之一的傢伙、經營的一項不可思議的業務。他被低估了一段時間，只是現在他真正的實力正被大家所發現。真是令人驚訝-如果我們有——
ANDY SERWER:I got one.
安迪·塞爾沃：我有一個。
WARREN BUFFETT:If we had a card table here-- well， yeah. Wecould put all their products on one table.
沃倫·巴菲特：如果我們這裡有一張牌桌——嗯，是的。我們可以把它們所有的產品放在一張桌子上。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞爾沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Can you imagine that？
沃倫·巴菲特：你能想象嗎？
ANDY SERWER:Yeah.
安迪·塞爾沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:I mean， and I just think of basically theutility of those products to a ecosystem that is demographically terrific， andfinds that instrument useful dozens and dozens of times a day. It's-- it'salmost indispensable not only to individuals， business， I mean， everything.
沃倫·巴菲特：我的意思是，我只是想到這些產品對如此多的人所產生的出色的生態意義上的作用，並發現（蘋果的）設備每天都被使用很多次。它幾乎是必不可少的，不僅對個人、企業，而是對一切（事物來說，都是如此）。
ANDY SERWER:And you have one of these babies now. Right？
安迪·塞爾沃：你現在有一臺這樣的（設備）（《紅週刊》記者注：iPhone）。對吧？
WARREN BUFFETT:I've got-- I've got one of them. I don'thave it on me.
沃倫·巴菲特：我有-我有一個。但我沒帶在身上。
ANDY SERWER:OK.
安迪·塞爾沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Because I would be afraid it would ring andI wouldn't know what to do with it. [LAUGHS]
沃倫·巴菲特：因為我害怕它（手機）會響，我不知道該怎麼處理。[笑]
ANDY SERWER:It's OK. You can take a call during this. Itwouldn't be-- have a problem with that. And what sort of apps do you have？ Doyou have any apps loaded？
安迪·塞爾沃：沒關係。你可以在（我們談話）期間打電話，不會有問題的。你（手機上安裝了）什麼應用程序？你下載了應用程序嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， they've got a lot of apps on it. But--but the other day-- actually， yesterday I was someplace. Normally， I don'tcarry it in town. I carry it out of town. But-- and somehow I was having alittle trouble just getting to the-- but this is only me. Any two-year-oldcould do this. But I-- in fact， I have trouble getting to the part where Iactually phone somebody. [LAUGHS] I use it as a phone.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，它們（蘋果系統裡）有很多應用程序在上面。昨天，我在某個地方。一般情況下，我不會在城裡攜帶它（手機），（但）我（會）帶著它出城。但是，不知怎麼的，在（使用iPhone方面，我）有點困難，但這只是（針對）我（而言），（對於）任何兩歲的孩子（來說，他們）都能做到（使用iPhone）。但我，事實上，我很難找到給別人撥打電話（那個功能在哪裡）。我把它用作電話（《紅週刊》記者注：或主要用來接電話）。
ANDY SERWER:Right. So you're not—
安迪·塞爾沃：好的。所以你不是-
WARREN BUFFETT:But I got a lot of apps on it.
沃倫·巴菲特：但我有很多應用程序在手機上。
ANDY SERWER:Have you used any of the apps？
安迪·塞爾沃：你用過這些應用程序嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:No.
沃倫·巴菲特：沒有。
ANDY SERWER:No gaming apps or—
安迪·塞爾沃：沒有遊戲或（其他應用程序嗎）-
WARREN BUFFETT:No. People have shown them to me—
沃倫·巴菲特：沒有。（但）已經有人給我展示過了（該如何使用）—
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm.
安迪·塞爾沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:--occasionally. They've-- there's even someapp with-- with me involved， on this newspaper boy tossing thing. It's the appthat-- that I revealed a year ago in the movie that-- I went out to California.And-- and to Tim Cook very patiently spent hours trying to-- trying to move meup to the level the average two-year-old. And I didn't quite make it. [LAUGHS]But I supposedly developed an app in this little movie we had. And as I walkedout， I turned to Tim and I said， by the way， what is an app？ [LAUGHS] We had alot of fun. He is a terrific guy.
沃倫·巴菲特：-（只是）偶爾。它們甚至有一些應用程序和我有關，是一個報童扔東西的應用。這個應用程序，我一年前在電影中透露過。（當時）我去了加利福尼亞，而且，蒂姆·庫克非常耐心地花了幾個小時，試圖把我（使用手機的水平）提升到兩歲孩童的平均水平，但我沒能成功。我在這部小電影裡開發了一個應用程序。當我走出去的時候，我轉向蒂姆，並對他說，“順便問一下，什麼是應用程序？”我們（在一起交談得）很開心。他是個很棒的人。
ANDY SERWER:Right. And—
安迪·塞爾沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:And that is a-- that is an unbelievableproduct.
沃倫·巴菲特：這是一個令人難以置信的產品。
ANDY SERWER:Just one more about those stocks-- you know，the so-called FANG stocks？
安迪·塞爾沃：（我還有一些問題）關於那些股票，-你知道，所謂的FANG股票？
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:And， again， you know， does that approach asort of bubble to you， when you just see—
安迪·塞爾沃：而且，（我還想再問問你），你知道，它們（FANG）對你來說，接近泡沫（的水平）了嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:No， it's just the opposite. I mean， you'reseeing in this kind of a market， those companies don't need capital. Well，Netflix needs capital. They're new. But， basically， the big-- the big companiesin market value don't need capital. And that will separate them from-- evenmore from the rest of the pack.
沃倫·巴菲特：不，正好相反。我是說，顯而易見，那些公司不需要資本。嗯（當然），Netflix（除外）需要資金。但是，基本上，市值大的公司不需要資本。這（個特點）將使得它們與其他公司，甚至更多的公司與眾不同。
I mean， they-- they have a incredible business model. If you lookat the top 10 market value of companies-- go back 10 years， 20 years， 30 years.I mean， go back years. It's， you know， it's AT&；；T， the old AT&；；T， and theGeneral Motors， and Standard Oil in New Jersey， as it was called then. You knowthe 500. You worked on it.
我是說，它們有著不可思議的商業模式。如果你看看這個市場上前十大市值的公司-追溯到10年、20年、30年，我是說，回到過去許多年，你知道，它們（具有不可思議商業模式的公司）是AT&；；T，舊的AT&；；T，通用汽車以及新澤西的標準石油公司（美孚石油），也就是（當時一些人為之）工作的世界500強。
And-- but those companies needed money. I mean， when AndrewCarnegie was-- went in the steel business， he built one steel mill， you know，made money that， saved it. Then three or four years later， he built anotherone. And it was-- it was capital retention and-- and oil business， the sameway， whatever it was. And now the really incredible companies are the ones thataccount for just the top five would-- would be well over 10％ of the marketvalue of the company-- country. They really don't-- they don't take capitalthat-- they make it-- their suppliers may in some cases， and all that. But--but they are really-- overwhelmingly， they're capital light. And-- and that isreally different.
但是那些公司需要錢。我是說，當安德魯·卡內基從事鋼鐵生意時，他（需要）建立一家鋼鐵廠，你知道，（然後他）賺了錢，（再把賺到的錢）存下來。三四年後，（通過留存下來的錢）他又造了一座（鋼鐵廠）。這就是資本留存以及石油業務。不管是什麼（其他類似業務），它們都是一樣的。現在，真正令人難以置信的公司是那些前五名的公司，它們的市值甚至會達到或超過（國家/州）（生產力）的10％。它們並不需要（外在的）資本（補給）——它們自己就能賺到——（儘管）在某些情況下，它們的供應商可能會（需要）。它們絕大多數都是輕資產，這是它們真正差異（與以前的公司相比）所在。
錯過谷歌 已經少量買入亞馬遜
不知道FANG目前是否有泡沫
ANDY SERWER:Then the question is， why don't you own Googleand Amazon， those two in particular？ Let's take those two.
安迪·塞爾沃：那麼（接下來的）問題是，你為什麼不擁有谷歌和亞馬遜這兩家公司呢？讓我們來看看這兩家公司吧。
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， that's a pretty damn good question.[LAUGHS] But I don't have a good answer. [LAUGHS] The-- I definitely shouldhave owned Google. They-- the guys came to see me before they did a-- when theywere—
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，這是個非常好的問題。但是我沒有好的答案。我確實本來應該擁有谷歌。他們曾經來拜訪過我。
ANDY SERWER:Larry and Sergey？
安迪·塞爾沃：拉里和謝爾蓋？（《紅週刊》記者注：谷歌的兩位創始人）
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Yeah. And they-- and we were-- thiswas a long time ago. I mean， this was before they went public. They weretalking to me a little bit about it. And we were using search at GEICO in asignificant way. So I knew the power of search. And I actually used search alot myself， starting with Altavista or something， going way back. And search isincredibly valuable to me. And-- and it was valuable to GEICO.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，是的。這是很久以前的事了，還在他們成名之前。他們跟我談了很多（關於Google的事）。我們在GEICO（《紅週刊》記者注：GEICO即政府員工保險公司，美國第四大汽車保險公司，是沃倫·巴菲特的BerkshireHathaway投資公司的合夥人）進行了一次重要的搜索，所以我知道搜索的力量。實際上，我自己也經常使用搜索，從Altavista（《紅週刊》記者注：全球最知名的搜索引擎公司之一，同時提供搜索引擎後臺技術支持等相關產品）或其他東西開始。搜索對我來說是非常有價值的，而且它對GEICO也很有價值。
So I-- I was capable of understanding of that. On the other hand，I had seen that Google was taking out Altavista to some degree. And I thought，you know， maybe somebody else can take out Google. And maybe if they'd startedearlier， somebody else could have taken out Google. So I was always a stepbehind on that.
所以我能理解。（但）另一方面，我（也）看到谷歌在某種程度上淘汰了Altavista。（所以）我想，也許其他人（也）可以幹掉谷歌。如果它們早一點開始，可能（就）會幹掉谷歌。所以我總是落後一步。
ANDY SERWER:What do you do？ Do you kick yourself？ Whatdoes Warren Buffett do？
安迪·塞爾沃：你在做什麼？你給了自己一下嗎？這是沃倫·巴菲特做的（決策）嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:No， I don't. Because I've made so manymistakes. You know， I'd-- if I tried to kick myself， my legs would beexhausted.
沃倫·巴菲特：不，不是的。我承認我犯過很多錯誤。你知道，如果我想踢自己，我的腿會累壞的。
No. It-- you don't— you don't kick yourself in the investment. Andincidentally， you don't kick yourself when you make a mistake. I mean， it ispart of what you do.
你絕不想在投資上（懲罰）自己的。順便說一句，即使你犯了錯誤你也不會懲罰自己。我是意思是，這（犯錯）是工作的一部分。
ANDY SERWER:Right. And what about Amazon， same kind ofthing？
安迪·塞爾沃：對。那麼，亞馬遜這家公司呢？
WARREN BUFFETT:Incredible business.
沃倫·巴菲特：（它也是一筆）不可思議的生意。
ANDY SERWER:But why-- why-- it's not too late to buythese stocks， is it？
安迪·塞爾沃：但是，為什麼（你沒有買入這家公司）呢？現在買這家公司的股票還不晚，是嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know.
沃倫·巴菲特：我不知道。
ANDY SERWER:But you're not-- you're not buying themright now.
安迪·塞爾沃：但是，你現在並沒有買入它們。
WARREN BUFFETT:No. But I don't buy much.
沃倫·巴菲特：不，（我買了）只是買的不多。
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm.
安迪·塞爾沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:Thos those are the kind of businesses Ithink about a lot. Charlie thinks about them a lot. You can't help but do it. Imean， those are incredible business stories.
沃倫·巴菲特：它們是那種我經常會思考的生意。查理（也）想了很多，你會忍不住要這麼做。我是說，它的商業模式非常不可思議。
ANDY SERWER:Right. I mean， so the door is not closed，necessarily.
安迪·塞爾沃：是的，我是說，（你還可以對它們進行投資）這扇門並沒有關著。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， no.
沃倫·巴菲特：不，不（我沒說它關了投資者的門）。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞爾沃：對。
WARREN BUFFETT:No， not at all.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，完全沒有。
ANDY SERWER:OK.
安迪·塞爾沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， actually， one of the other fellows nowhas bought a little Amazon. I mean， that-- that showed up in our 13F.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，實際上，我們團隊中另一個人買了一點亞馬遜的股票，這個我們在13F財報中已經披露過了。
ANDY SERWER:Ted or Todd？
安迪·塞爾沃：是泰德還是託德？
WARREN BUFFETT:One of the two.
沃倫·巴菲特：他們兩個中的一個。
ANDY SERWER:One of the two bought some Amazon？
安迪·塞爾沃：他們兩個人中有一個買了一些亞馬遜？
WARREN BUFFETT:Mm-hmm.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯。
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞爾沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. That-- that was in our 13F. Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，這個之前在我們的13F報告中披露過。
WARREN BUFFETT:Right. There you go. You took the plunge.
安迪·塞爾沃：好的。這樣做，你冒險了。
WARREN BUFFETT:Not me.
沃倫·巴菲特：不是我。
ANDY SERWER:Berkshire-- Berkshire took the plunge.
安迪·塞爾沃：那是伯克希爾冒險了。
WARREN BUFFETT:Berkshire took-- yeah， Berkshire. They cando anything they want to do. They can't short Berkshire's a few stocks.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，是伯克希爾冒險了。除了不能賣空伯克希爾自己的股票，它們可以做任何他們想做的事。
ANDY SERWER:And then speaking a little bit more aboutAmazon and Jeff Bezos， he owns "The Washington Post."
安迪·塞爾沃：（接下來）談一點關於亞馬遜和傑夫·貝佐斯的事吧，他擁有《華盛頓郵報》。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:They offered it to you， my understanding9 is，when it is for sale. Or-- I mean， you talk to Don a lot.
安迪·塞爾沃：我的理解是，當它需要出售時，會向你提供（出售方案）。而且，你經常跟唐納德（特朗普總統）談論此事。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. I talk to Don a lot. Sure.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，當然，我和唐納德（特朗普總統）談了很多。
ANDY SERWER:Talk to-- and why-- do you regret not buyingit or did you not？
安迪·塞爾沃：談談--為什麼--你後悔沒有買它嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:No. I-- If I buy anything， it's got to befor Berkshire. You know， I-- I mean， I'm-- I'm just committed that way. I'mmentally-- Berkshire comes before me. And-- and it would have been a mistakefor the-- for Berkshire to own "The Washington Post."
沃倫·巴菲特：不。如果我買什麼東西，那一定是為了伯克希爾的。我是說，我只是這樣做。我將伯克希爾（的利益）放在我個人之前。如果伯克希爾擁有《華盛頓郵報》，這對伯克希爾來說可能會是個錯誤。
ANDY SERWER:Because of the political stuff？
安迪·塞爾沃：因為政治方面的事情嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah.
安迪·塞爾沃：好的。
WARREN BUFFETT:People would think-- I will guarantee youthat-- that Jeff Bezos is not telling Fred Hiatt [LAUGHS] or anybody there--Marty Baron-- but I'll bet-- I'll bet 80％ of the people， you know， or some hugenumber of people just generally think that-- that if you own a newspaper， youtell them what to run every day. I mean， it's just-- it-- you know， it doesn'thappen very often.
沃倫·巴菲特：人們會認為-我向你保證-傑夫·貝佐斯不會告訴弗雷德·希亞特或那裡的任何人-馬蒂·巴倫-但我敢打賭-我賭80％的人，或者很多人只是普遍認為-如果你擁有一份報紙，你會告訴他們每天應當做些什麼事情。我是說，你知道這並不經常發生。
It used to happen with some papers， obviously， and it probablydoes still happen with some papers. But that is not the way it generally works.And that certainly wouldn't be the way it would work at The WashingtonPost."
很顯然，它曾經發生在一些報紙身上，而且它可能仍然發生在一些報紙身上。但這不是它通常應當具有的運行方式。這肯定（也）不是《華盛頓郵報》的運行方式。
ANDY SERWER:Yeah. I mean， it sounds like President Trumpmay think that.
安迪·塞爾沃：是的。我是說，聽起來特朗普總統可能會這麼認為。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Well， a lot of-- and， I mean， KayGraham did not tell Ben Bradlee what to write. I can—
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。嗯，有很多-我是說，凱·格雷厄姆沒有告訴本·布拉德利該寫什麼。我可以—
ANDY SERWER:Right.
安迪·塞爾沃：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT:You know， that， I know. I mean， and-- well，I don't Really know Don and Graham. But， I mean， it-- they just don't do it.But I will guarantee you that， you know， particular among political figures，but really in the- the man on the street， they-- 90％ of them probably wouldthink that the-- that the Graham family was telling-- telling editors what todo.
沃倫·巴菲特：你知道，我並不完全理解唐納德和格雷厄姆。但是，他們並不會這麼做。我向你保證，你知道，特別是在政治人物中，實際上，他們中90％的人可能會認為-格雷厄姆家族-會告訴-告訴編輯該怎麼做。
ANDY SERWER:I know you're reluctant to wade intopolitics.
安迪·塞爾沃：我知道你不願意涉足政治。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。
ANDY SERWER:But I want to ask you—
安迪·塞爾沃：但我還是想問你—
WARREN BUFFETT:I may demonstrate that reluctance here.
沃倫·巴菲特：我可以在這裡證明這種不情願。
ANDY SERWER:Right. Good. You will in a second， I'm sure.
安迪·塞爾沃：對。是的。你馬上就會的，我肯定。
ANDY SERWER:But， you know， we've talked about thisbefore， Warren， that the country seems to be fairly divided up. And you've saidit's eventually going to get back together. Do you still feel that way？
安迪·塞爾沃：但是，你知道，沃倫，我們以前談論過這件事，就是國家內部看起來矛盾重重，可你說過它最終會歸於圓滿。你現在還有這種感覺嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， sure. Sure.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。當然。
ANDY SERWER:What will-- how will we get back together？
安迪·塞爾沃：我們會怎樣--我們會怎樣重新走向圓滿？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you could have asked me the samequestion in the Vietnam period. And I will tell you， it was-- it was even moreintense. I mean， I watched-- I happened to be in New York at the time. And Iwatched that crowd come up to Wall Street. I mean， it was coming up whicheverstreet that is-- Broad Street. Oh， no. Yeah， may have been Wall and Broad. Butwhatever-- I mean， have seen—
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，你好像在越戰時期問過我同樣的問題。我要告訴你，那時更強烈。我是說，我當時碰巧在紐約。我看著那群人來到華爾街，不管是哪條街—是啊，可能是—布羅德街。無論如何，我曾經見過—
ANDY SERWER:They were demonstrators.
安迪·塞爾沃：他們是示威遊行者。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. And during the Vietnam period， I mean，people were just as inflamed， I would say， on both sides. I mean， there were--it was a-- it was-- and it went on a long time. And， you know， caused thepresident not to run again， in the case of Johnson. So this country has been--we had a civil war. I mean， you know， and-- so we've-- we've had-- we've alwayshad-- we're a democracy.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。在越戰時期，兩邊都處於膠著（狀態），它持續了很長時間。而且，你知道，造成約翰遜總統時期無法正常運行的狀況。
You know， we've got-- we'll have strong opinions on both sides.And sometimes they-- they rev up more than others. But I do not regard this assome unique period in history. All-- everybody-- I've been reading about uniqueperiods in history ever-- [LAUGHS] ever since I was old enough to read. So I—
你知道，我們雙方都有強烈的意見。但我不認為這是歷史上某種獨特的時期。所有的人—我們每個人，我一直在閱讀關於歷史上這段獨特時期的（書籍），對我來說，我已經不夠年輕再去讀這些內容。
ANDY SERWER:Some of the things that—
安迪·塞爾沃：有些事情—
WARREN BUFFETT:My dad-- listen， I grew up in a householdthat-- that it was the family's belief-- and it went beyond my dad and mymother， but went to， you know， all my uncles and all-- I mean， that basically，that-- the country had gone socialist， you know， in the '30s.
沃倫·巴菲特：我在一個家庭里長大，（我爸爸是這個家庭的）信仰，基本上，國家在30年代已經社會主義化—這超出了我爸爸和我媽媽的（認知）範圍。
ANDY SERWER:Your father was a Republican congressman.
安迪·塞爾沃：你父親是共和黨議員。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Yeah， very Republican. We didn't getdessert at dinner until we said something nasty about Roosevelt. I mean--[LAUGHS] my sister's [INAUDIBLE]. It was sort of ritualistic. [LAUGHS]
沃倫·巴菲特：是啊，非常（具有）共和黨（傾向）。如果我們不在餐桌上說點關於羅斯福的壞話，我們是不會在晚餐上得到甜點的。我是說，我的姐妹們...有點儀式感。
伯克希爾仍處於“換擋期”
巴菲特99％的錢來自伯克希爾收益
ANDY SERWER:You said-- shifting gears here a littlebit， you said you might continue to underperform the S&；；P 500. You mightcontinue to do that.
安迪·塞爾沃：你說過會在這個階段“換個檔”，伯克希爾的表現可能會繼續低於標普500指數。你會繼續這麼做嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， I will from time time， for sure.
沃倫·巴菲特：沒錯。
ANDY SERWER:But what is the appeal， then， to own BerkshireHathaway stock？
安迪·塞爾沃：那麼伯克希爾的股票還有什麼吸引力呢？
ANDY SERWER:Well， I've got 99％ of my money， so[LAUGHS] it appeals to me. But it appeals-- actually， it appeals to a lot ofpeople who feel very comfortable with the fact that we'll never blow it，basically. And I think that they could feel very certain， relative to almostany company， that， you know， we won't be at the bottom quartile or something ofperformance. But they can feel very-- they also should feel very-- we're notgoing to be in the top decile， either.
沃倫·巴菲特：（哈哈）我自己99％的錢都來自伯克希爾的收益，顯然這些股票對我而言有十足的吸引力。實際上它還吸引了很多其他人，這些人認為持有伯克希爾是非常舒服的賺錢方式，因為他們相信我們不會把事情搞砸——我們的收益表現不會墊底（底部1/4），當然也不會排在前十。
We-- we run it-- we run-- if you're a shareholder at Birkshire，we-- we are running the business like you've got 100％ of your money in it， andyou're going to keep it in. And it's up to us to take care of it.
比如你是伯克希爾公司的一個股東，你只需要把自己100％的錢投入進來，我們則負責經營好這個公司，如何管理你的財產取決於我們。
ANDY SERWER:You said that my market value-- my valueis not so high. And it seems like you're trying to really create a BerkshireHathaway that works well， maybe not in perpetuity but for a very long time.
安迪·塞爾沃：你曾經說過自己的市值不會非常高，看起來你似乎真的在嘗試創造一個運營良好的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司，儘管可能不是永續的，但起碼它會運營很長一段時間。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的。
尋找能夠獻身於伯克希爾的繼任者
未來將重點投資疫苗和教育
ANDY SERWER:And then you also said， we're wellprepared for a succession. It's almost going to be embarrassing， how well.
安迪·塞爾沃：你還說過你們已經為繼任做好了充分的準備，不得不說這令人感到十分尷尬。
WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. Well--
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，嗯……
ANDY SERWER:What does that-- what does that mean？
安迪·塞爾沃：這該如何理解？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it just means that Berkshire doesn'tneed me. And-- and we've got somebody that's extremely better than I am inmany， many， many respects to succeed me. And that's-- and-- and you want thatcompany， and I want it. I mean， you know， whatever the number may be-- but it'smany billions that will go for vaccines or whatever it may be， education， fordecades to come. That depends on that.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，這只是意味著伯克希爾不需要我了，我們有一個在很多方面都比我優秀的人來接替我的位置。可能我們想要（投資）的公司不同，但是無論如何，未來伯克希爾會有幾十億或者難以準確計數的資金將用於投資疫苗或者教育行業。
But more important， it's-- it's really a couple-- it's at leasta million people or a disproportionate number， have got something close to theirwhole savings in. And so we're their partner. I mean， Berkshire came out of apartnership. Charlie ran a partnership， I ran a partnership. We actually-- wedo look at the people as partners. And we look at a partner or somebody whotrusts us to make sure that we-- we don't-- they don't get killed in theprocess. [LAUGHS]
但更重要的是，至少有百萬人把他們幾乎所有的存款都投入進來，我們是這些人的合作伙伴。伯克希爾是一個合夥制企業，我和查理在運營這家合夥制企業的時候，會把所有（出資）人當作我們的合作伙伴，我們要確保不讓這些信任我們的夥伴在（運營伯克希爾的）過程中被“消滅”。（哈哈）
And they are not-- if they're shooting for the top 1％ ofperformance or 5％ of performance， they're not going to find it. They might havefound it in our partnership where I work with tiny sums of money， but we can'tdo it. And we don't want you to think we can do it.
如果人們的目標是（收益）表現在前1％或者前5％的基金公司的話，他們是找不到有這種成績的目標的。我們的合作伙伴可能在於我們合作的過程中也發現了這一點，我用很少的錢工作，但也做不到成績在前1％或者前5％。我們也不希望你們認為我們可以做到。
ANDY SERWER:You said a person to succeed me， I thinkjust now. And so is that a person that we know or is it-- I mean， there arevarious people at the top of Berkshire that you've tapped. I mean， there's Gregand Ajit are going to be on stage this year at the meeting.
安迪·塞爾沃：剛才你說有個人會接替你，所以是一個我們都認識的人還是？我的意思是，你在伯克希爾公司的高層中提拔過很多人，或許格雷格或者阿吉特將會在今年的會議（伯克希爾股東大會）上登臺。
WARREN BUFFETT:It depends what happens to me and what happensto other people. But—
沃倫·巴菲特：這取決於我和其他人身上發生了什麼。但是……
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm. It's not Justin Bieber or someoneout there.
安迪·塞爾沃：嗯。不會是賈斯汀·比伯或者其他人。
WARREN BUFFETT:No. It isn't even Elon Musk.[LAUGHTER] Butthe interesting thing is， if you take our top 10 holdings at Berkshire-- abouta week ago I got $150 billion in them.
沃倫·巴菲特：不會的，也不會是埃隆·馬斯克。（哈哈哈）不過有趣的是，如果你看看我們伯克希爾的前十大股東——大約一週前我就拿到了1500億美元。
ANDY SERWER:Mm-hmm.
安迪·塞爾沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know who the successor is to theCEO in any one of those 10. And I've watched a lot of successors come and go inthose holdings. So to think that we wouldn't have somebody able is just crazy，I mean， in our case， that-- that is just the ultimate responsibility of the boardof directors， is to have the right CEO and be prepared for if something happensto that person.
沃倫·巴菲特：我不知道他們10箇中的哪一個會繼任CEO，我見過許多繼任者在他們中來來去去。因此，認為我們沒有一個可以勝任CEO的人選的這種想法是很瘋狂的。在我們的體制之下，找到一個合適的CEO併為其可能發生的事情做好準備是董事會的最終責任。
ANDY SERWER:Right. You said that we possess skilledand devoted top managers for whom running Berkshire is far more than simplyhaving a high paying or prestigious job. How do you know that？
安迪·塞爾沃：沒錯。你曾經說過你們擁有經驗豐富且忠心耿耿的頂級經理人，對他們來說管理伯克希爾遠不止是一份高薪或者有聲望的工作。你怎麼知道他們是這樣想的？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you don't know for sure. But-- butyou've got to make judgments on that. You make judgments on a marriage. Imean-- [LAUGHS] and you've got more time to look them over， and-- thenselecting successor CEOs. But that's the most important decision， though， thatyou make. It isn't what their IQ is. And it-- it isn't even necessarily thetop， maybe in a given type of managerial skill. I mean， if they're-- if they'rethe kind that will leave you tomorrow-- I mean， you really want somebody thatis devoted to Berkshire.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，你確實無法完全保證，但是你仍需要作出決策，就像為婚姻作出決策一樣。（哈哈哈）我的意思是，你有充足的時間來觀察他們，並挑選出CEO的候選人。儘管這是你（為伯克希爾）做出的最重要的決定，你也未必要選擇那個智商最高或者管理能力最優秀的人——如果他們很可能明天就會離開伯克希爾的話。因為你真正想要的是一個能夠獻身於伯克希爾的人。
And incidentally， we look for the same thing in oursubsidiaries. In other words， we've got a group of managers. And dozens anddozens and dozens-- now everyone doesn't feel this way. I mean， but we've got amuch higher percentage that feel that way than， I think， than virtually anybodyelse. But-- but you can't bat 1,000 in that game.
順便想說，我們也在自己的子公司尋找同樣的人。換句話說，我們有一群經理人，他們並沒有獻身於伯克希爾的想法，但是我們也有相當比例的經理人是這樣考慮的。只不過你不能在一場遊戲裡擊球1000次。
閱讀對於巴菲特而言意義重大
重視會計學這門“投資語言”
ANDY SERWER:Another topic that people are very keen onright now is student debt. And I know that you are really prided yourself onhelping students. Is this something that really concerns you？
安迪·塞爾沃：現在大家熱議的另一個話題是學生債務。我知道你對於幫助學生感到非常自豪，這是你真正關心的事情嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， it would be a tough considerationfor me if I were going to school， whether I wanted to not only invest about a college，whether I wanted to invest the four years. I didn't want to go to college thatmuch when I went-- got out of high school. But not only the four years， but ifI had to incur， you know， hundreds of thousands of dollars in student debt， I--I don't know which decision I would make.
沃倫·巴菲特：嗯，是否上學對我來說是一個十分艱難的抉擇，我要考慮清楚我是否想不僅投資一所大學以及是否想投資四年。在我高中畢業的時候，我並沒有那麼渴望去上大學。當我不得不承擔數十萬美元的學生債務的時候，我不知道我會如何來抉擇。
No. It's-- you know， higher education is really expensive. Andwe've helped out many thousands of students， and the Gates Foundation has donethe same thing， and other foundations that I support. But it's just expensive.It's very expensive.
你要知道，儘管我們幫助了成千上萬的學生，蓋茨基金會和我支持的其他基金會也做了同樣的事情，但不得不說高等教育真的十分昂貴。
ANDY SERWER:Is it still worth it？
安迪·塞爾沃：現在還值得嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:It depends on the individual. It dependson the individual more than the school. I mean， it-- there's a lot to learn inthose four years. I mean， there's a lot you can learn in those four years. Andwhether you do or not depends on-- more on the individual. I don't think it-- Idon't think it makes sense for everybody to go to college. You know， and-- andI'm not so sure it made sense for me to go to college.
沃倫·巴菲特：這取決於個人而非學校。在上大學的四年間我們可以學到很多東西，但上大學並非對每個人都是有意義的，甚至我也不確定上大學對我來說是否有意義。
ANDY SERWER:Really？ Come on.
安迪·塞爾沃：真的嗎？願聞其詳。
ANDY SERWER:No， I'm not kidding. I mean， I learned alot by reading. And you know， I spent three or four year-- counting graduateschool， four years， that I could have been doing other things. [LAUGHS] Andthere were a lot of intelligent things to do then. Who knows？ No， I don't thinkit was essential. I mean， I had some wonderful people. I met through it.
沃倫·巴菲特：我沒有在開玩笑。我的意思是，我在閱讀中學到很多東西。算上研究生，我花了四年的時間來上學，但我本可以做很多其他“明智”的事情，所以我不認為這（上學）是必要的。其實通過讀書，我也認識了很多優秀的人。
Main thing when I went to Columbia， though ，with taking BenGraham's-- because I already knew what he was going to say. I mean， I read it.I understood-- you know， I mean， he was a very good writer. But it wasinspirational. It was inspirational more than it was educational.
一個很典型的例子，我是帶著本傑明·格雷厄姆的書去哥倫比亞大學的，所以在上課之前我就知道他（格雷厄姆）會說什麼了，因為我讀過他寫的書，我理解（他的理念）。他是個很好的作家，與其說他的作品是具有教育意義的，不如說是鼓舞人心的。
ANDY SERWER:We have a few questions from our audienceat Yahoo! Finance from Twitter. One is， what advice would you give to a younginvestor today？
安迪·塞爾沃：雅虎財經的讀者在推特上發表了一些對您的提問，其中一個問題是，對年輕的投資者您有什麼建議？
WARREN BUFFETT:Well， you've got to understand accounting.You've got to-- that's got to be like a language to you. And so， yeah， you haveto know what you're reading. I mean， and unless you know that language-- andsome people have more aptitude for that than others. You know， but-- and that'sone thing I learned by myself. Now， I took courses in it afterwards， forexample. But I learned it myself in a-- largely.
沃倫 巴菲特：必須要懂會計。對你（投資者）來說，會計就像一門語言，你必須知道你在讀什麼。有些人在這方面會比其他人更有天賦，但我是自學的。雖然我後來選修了一些課程，但大部分的會計知識我都是自學的。（注：巴菲特在童年就開始了送報紙、挨家挨戶地推銷口香糖和可口可樂等創業活動，11歲時就自學了會計基礎知識）。
So you have to do that. And you have to have the attitude thatyou're buying part of a business， and not that you're buying something thatwiggles around on a chart or that has resistance zones or 200 day movingaverages or that you buy puts it calls on or anything like that. You're buyingpart of a business. And if you buy intelligently into a business， you're goingto make money.
你（投資者）必須這樣做。同時要知道（投資）是在買入一家公司的一部分，而不是在買入某個在圖表上搖擺不定的東西，或是有阻力區域的東西，或是有200天移動平均線的東西，或是買進看跌期權或看漲期權的東西，或諸如此類的東西（注：巴菲特指的是投資者不要依靠技術分析，即通過研究股票價格在不同時期的走勢來做投資）。
And then you have to buy something that， in my view， which youdo if you're buying a business， that you're not going to get a quote on forfive years. That they're going to close a stock exchange tomorrow for fiveyears， and that you'll be happy owning it as a business.
如果你明智地投資了一家企業，你就會賺錢，那麼你就必須買這家公司的股票。在我看來，如果你買了一家5年內都無法報價的公司，例如，明天證券交易所就要關閉5年，你會很高興擁有這家公司。
If you ownedCoca-Cola， it didn't make any difference in 1920 if it went public. Theimportant thing was what I was doing with customers. And you probably wouldhave been better off if there wasn't any market in it for 30 or 40 years.Because then you wouldn't have gotten tempted to sell it. [LAUGHS] And you justwatch the business and you'd watch it grow and you'd feel happy. So the-- theproper attitude toward investing is much more important than any technicalskills.
例如，如果你擁有可口可樂，它與在1920年上市時沒有任何區別。重要的是它如何對待客戶。如果30年或40年沒有任何市場表現，你可能會過得更好，因為那樣你就不會受到出售它的誘惑。你只要看著這個行業，看著它成長，你就會感到快樂。 因此，正確的投資態度比任何技術技能都重要得多
積極的態度不僅能帶來更好的生活體驗
還有助於“健康長壽”
ANDY SERWER:Another question from one of our audiencemembers-- with all your success， what keeps you and Charlie going？
安迪·塞爾沃：另一個觀眾提的問題，你那麼成功，是什麼讓你和查理走下去的？
WARREN BUFFETT:We have so much fun. I just talked to himthe other day for an hour. And we have fun every time we talk. And we arehaving-- we are doing what we love to do with people we love every day. And，you know， I've been lucky on health. God knows， you know， how Charlie at 96 ofme at 89 with our habits and everything， it's-- I don't know what it's a testamentto. I think， actually， being happy in what you're doing makes a huge difference.
沃倫·巴菲特：我們之間有很多樂趣。前幾天我剛和他交談了一個小時，我們每次談話都很開心。我們每天都和自己愛的人做喜歡做的事情。而且我們都是非常幸運的，查理96歲了，我89歲了，這或許與健康的生活習慣有關。在我看來，每天做能讓自己開心的事情能夠對“健康長壽”起到很大作用。
And you don't want to go around having grudges against people.And， I mean， all these things that cause you to think negatively， whether it'sabout the world or about individuals or about your own bad luck or anything ofthe sort. Just forget it， basically. I think-- I think that helps.
學會忘記，能夠在很大程度上幫助我們維持快樂的心情。你一定也不想生活在對他人的怨恨中——那就忘掉那些讓你產生負面情緒的因素，比如讓你不開心的人和事，或者你的壞運氣。把它們統統忘記吧。
ANDY SERWER:How do you clear that stuff out of yourmind？
安迪·塞爾沃：你是如何把這些負面情緒從腦子裡清除出去的？
WARREN BUFFETT:I don't know whether you're born to someextent that way. But you certainly see the works， and the-- you know， I mean，you just take the people you know. And the ones are sour at the world， theworld gets sour on， you know， basically. [LAUGHS] And so it's-- now it's goingto be tough， you know， in certain situations. And if you've got some majorillness or something， I'm sorry. I mean， that's just-- you can have terribleluck at life， and that's-- it's-- and it can seem very unfair to you.But you'regoing to have-- you're going to have a better experience in life if-- ifbasically you-- you see the positive side of things.
沃倫·巴菲特：我不知道你是否在某種程度上生來如此（愛抱怨），但你肯定也見過這樣的人或事——那些經常對世界不滿意的人，他們的生活也會一團糟。如果你是遭遇了身患重疾這樣的困難，那麼我很抱歉。我的意思是，你在生活中可能會經歷“黴運”，這對你來說似乎很不公平。但是如果你能看到事物積極的一面，你會收穫更好的生活體驗。
ANDY SERWER:Hm.
安迪·塞爾沃：嗯。
WARREN BUFFETT:You know， when I sold shirts at Penney's and Iwas getting $0.75 an hour， I would rather have been doing something else.[LAUGHS] But since I've been certainly 24, I've always-- I've never-- therewasn't anything else I wanted to do. And I had everything I needed， and lifewas wonderful. And-- and I tell those students that comes-- you know， you gotto live. So you may take a job at first for some organization that you don'tadmire or work for somebody you don't admire.
沃倫·巴菲特:我在彭尼百貨賣襯衫的時候每小時掙0.75美元，我寧願去做別的事情。（哈哈）但是自從24歲以後，我就再也沒有其他想做的事情了。我得到了我需要的一切，生活很美好。然後我便告訴那些前來的學生——你必須先維持生計。所以一開始你可能會為你不喜歡的公司工作，或者為你不喜歡的人工作。
But look for somebody you admire. Look for somebody whereyou're looking forward to working with them that day， and doing something thatyou're looking forward to， that you'd do if you didn't need the money. And Charlieand I found that a long time ago.
但要找一個你欣賞的人，找一個你願意和他一起工作的人，做一些你願意做的事情，即使你不需要錢你也會去做的事情。我和查理在很久以前就發現了這一點（我們適合與自己喜歡的人一起做願意做的事情）。
ANDY SERWER:And you're going to turn 90, what， in afew months？
安迪·塞爾沃：幾個月之後你就要90歲了？
WARREN BUFFETT:About five months. Yeah.
沃倫·巴菲特：是的，五個月之後。
ANDY SERWER:So looking back over these years， what areyou most proud of？
安迪·塞爾沃：回首這些年，你最值得驕傲的事情是什麼？
WARREN BUFFETT:Oh， I would-- well， I'm-- I'm certainly--well， I have to give all the credit to my mother. But I'm certainly proud of howmy children have worked out. I mean， that's not easy， in a sense， having a namethat becomes famous or， you know， and thought of as having all kinds of money，although they don't. But all three of them are now in their 60s. In fact， you'relooking at a guy whose youngest child is 61. I mean that's-- [LAUGHS] andthey've all-- they've all lived very productive lives. And they-- and they allget along fine with each other， and they-- and I've seen a lot of richfamilies. It doesn't always work out that way.
沃倫·巴菲特:我得把這一切（成就）歸功於我的母親，我也確實為我的孩子們的表現感到自豪。我的意思是，從某種意義上說，“出名”並不是一件容易的事。我的孩子們現在都60多歲了，他們都過著富裕、快樂且有活力的生活。而我見過的其他很多富裕的家庭卻並非都是如此。
ANDY SERWER:And another question from the audience--if you were going to start a business today， what kind of company or what industrywould you look to get into？
安迪·塞爾沃：觀眾的另一個問題是，如果你今天開始創業，你希望進入什麼樣的公司或行業？
WARREN BUFFETT:I'd-- I'd do the same thing I've done. Imean， I—
沃倫·巴菲特：我可能會做和現在一樣的事情。
ANDY SERWER:Can everyone do what you do， though？ Imean， do you think that？
安迪·塞爾沃：你認為其他人能作出和你一樣的成就嗎？
WARREN BUFFETT:I'm cut out for-- for managing money. [LAUGHS]You know， it doesn't mean it makes-- you know， different people have differentkinds of minds. I-- I play bridge with people who can remember the hand theyplayed 30 years ago， you know， and watch a basketball game at the same time.But-- but-- so there's all kinds of different smarts that people have. And I'vebeen fortunate enough that I-- mine have been in something that pays off big.And I could be， you know， very good at something else that is just as muchutility to society. But it doesn't-- it doesn't fit the market system as well.
沃倫·巴菲特：我天生就擅長理財。（哈哈哈）我還記得三十年前我也和別人一起打橋牌，一起看籃球賽。人們各有各的聰明才智，而我足夠幸運，我的工作有豐厚的回報。我也可以做其他自身擅長的工作，也會對社會帶來貢獻，但那樣並不符合市場體系（即通過分工，做最擅長的事情，以實現社會效率的最大化）。
（編者注：本文英文部分來自雅虎財經。另，本文中文部分來自“有道”機器翻譯）
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