Asian refiners lose in crude tug-of-war
亞洲煉油廠在原油拉鋸戰中輸了
LAUNCESTON, Australia, (Reuters) - The emerging dynamic for crude oil markets this year is the struggle between OPEC and its allies for higher prices against the vocal push for low prices from U.S. President Donald Trump.
路透澳大利亞launceston 11月23日電---今年原油市場的新動向是，歐佩克與其盟國為提高油價而展開的鬥爭，與美國總統唐納德•特朗普（Donald Trump）聲勢浩大地推動油價走低形成了鮮明對比。
Much has already been written on which side is likely to prevail, but in the meantime, the losers are refiners in Asia who face crude prices likely to be higher relative to those in Europe and the Americas.
關於哪一方可能佔上風，已經寫了很多文章，但與此同時，輸家是亞洲的煉油廠，它們面臨的原油價格可能比歐洲和美洲的更高。
This is likely because Asian refiners will bear the brunt of lower supplies from OPEC's Middle East producers, as well as Russia, while at the same time being unable to take full advantage of cheaper U.S. shale crude oil.
這很可能是因為亞洲煉油廠將首當其衝地受到歐佩克中東生產商以及俄羅斯供應量下降的影響，同時無法充分利用美國頁岩原油價格更低的優勢。
While more U.S. crude is expected to flow to Asia in coming months because of the discount of West Texas Intermediate to the global light crude benchmark Brent, it remains questionable as to whether this will offset lower supplies from the Middle East.
儘管預計未來幾個月將有更多的美國原油流向亞洲，因為西德克薩斯中質原油價格低於全球輕質原油基準布倫特原油價格，但這是否會抵消來自中東的較低供應仍存在疑問。
Differences in crude quality also aren't working in favor of Asian refiners, given the preference of many for heavier, sour crudes such as those typically supplied by top Middle East exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran.
原油質量的差異也不利於亞洲煉油廠，因為許多煉油廠更喜歡重質含硫原油，如通常由沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和伊朗等中東主要出口國供應的原油。
While there may be more U.S. crude available at competitive prices in Asia, there may not be the appetite for it among many refiners given their plants are optimized to run on heavier grades.
雖然亞洲可能有更多的美國原油以具有競爭力的價格供應，但鑑於許多煉油廠的工廠都經過優化，能夠以較重的等級運行，因此它們可能對美國原油沒有興趣。
And those heavier grades are looking more expensive as demand for them rises and OPEC and its allies cut output.
隨著對石油產品需求的增加，石油輸出國組織及其盟國削減產量，這些較重的等級看起來更昂貴。
OPEC oil production slumped by the most in almost two years in December, with the reduction coming ahead of a formal agreement between the 15-member producer organization and its allies, including Russia.
12月份，歐佩克的石油產量下降了近兩年來的最大幅度，在這15個成員國生產組織與其盟國（包括俄羅斯）達成正式協議之前，石油產量有所下降。
OPEC pumped 32.68 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to a Reuters survey published on Jan. 3, down 460,000 bpd from November and the largest month-on-month drop since January 2017.
據路透社1月3日發佈的一項調查顯示，上個月石油輸出國組織的日產量為3268萬桶，比11月下降了46萬桶，是2017年1月以來最大的月環比下降。
OPEC, Russia and other non-members, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd in 2019 from November 2018 levels starting this month. OPEC's share of that cut is 800,000 bpd.
歐佩克、俄羅斯和其他非成員國，一個稱為歐佩克+的聯盟，在12月同意從本月開始的2018年11月水平到2019年減少120萬桶/天的供應。歐佩克在這一削減中的份額是80萬桶/天。
The OPEC+ cuts are making Middle East heavier crudes lose their price advantage to lighter grades.
歐佩克+的減產正在使中東較重的原油失去價格優勢。
Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) futures for Oman crude for March settlement ended at $60.57 a barrel on Wednesday, while the similar Brent contract was at $61.83, a discount of just $1.26.
迪拜商品交易所（DME）3月交割的阿曼原油期貨週三收於每桶60.57美元，而類似的布倫特原油期貨合約收於61.83美元，折扣僅為1.26美元。
Six months ago Brent was at $79.44 a barrel while DME Oman was at $75.32, a significantly deeper $4.12 discount.
六個月前，布倫特原油的價格為每桶79.44美元，而阿曼二甲醚的價格為每桶75.32美元，大大低於4.12美元。
ASIA EXPOSED
亞洲曝光
The erosion of Oman's price advantage to Brent leaves many Asian refiners with little choice but to pay relatively more for their crude supplies.
阿曼對布倫特原油價格優勢的侵蝕，使得許多亞洲煉油廠別無選擇，只能支付相對更多的原油供應。
Even if they can switch to using lighter crude grades, they end up producing more gasoline than desired and not enough middle distillates, such as diesel and jet kerosene.
即使他們可以轉而使用較輕的原油等級，他們最終生產的汽油比預期的多，而沒有足夠的中間餾分，如柴油和航空煤油。
While the profit margin, or crack, for a Singapore refinery producing diesel from Dubai crude is off its November peak of $17.97 a barrel, at the close of $13.43 on Wednesday it is still comfortably above the profit on gasoline.
雖然新加坡一家煉油廠從迪拜原油中生產柴油的利潤率（或稱為crack）已從11月17.97美元/桶的峰值回落至週三的13.43美元/桶，但仍較汽油利潤高出不少。
Producing a barrel of gasoline from Brent crude in Singapore
週三，新加坡布倫特原油（brent crude）生產一桶汽油的實際產量為每桶37美分，低於去年8月15日達到的11.55美元利潤峰值。
The contrasting fortunes of gasoline and middle distillates in Asia is a reflection of the struggles Asian refiners are having in adapting to the conflicting aims of the governments of the major oil producers, namely the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
相比之下，亞洲汽油和中間餾分油的命運反映了亞洲煉油商在適應主要石油生產國（即美國、俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯）政府相互衝突的目標方面所面臨的鬥爭。
Throw in uncertainty over what happens in April when U.S. waivers over Iran's crude exports end, and the picture clouds further for Asian refiners, who buy about two-thirds of the oil exported from the Middle East.
四月份美國放棄對伊朗原油出口的限制後，形勢變得不確定，而購買中東出口石油三分之二的亞洲煉油廠的前景則更加黯淡。
It's not a situation of their making, but Asia's refiners are caught between the OPEC+ moves to boost oil prices, and Trump's Twitter onslaught aimed at keeping them low.
這不是他們的情況，但是亞洲的煉油廠被困在石油輸出國組織（opec+）提振油價的行動和特朗普（trump）推特（twitter）旨在保持低油價的攻擊之間。
And the geopolitics of Trump's renewed sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme, the war in Syria and the ongoing fallout from the killing by Saudi agents of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey add to the brew of uncertainty.
特朗普對伊朗的核計劃、敘利亞戰爭以及沙特阿拉伯特工在土耳其殺害記者賈馬爾·哈肖吉所造成的持續後果的重新制裁所帶來的地緣政治因素增加了不確定性。
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