<strong>US gasoline exports to increase
美國汽油出口將增加
According to ESAI Energy’s recently released ‘One-Year Global Fuels Outlook’, the US gasoline surplus will expand by roughly 80 000 bpd in 2019 as demand continues to plateau and output keeps rising.
根據歐空局最近發佈的“一年全球燃料展望”，隨著需求持續平穩，產量持續上升，2019年美國汽油盈餘將增長約8萬桶/天。
Since first moving into surplus in 2016, the US gasoline balance has risen steadily to approximately 350 000 bpd in 2018. As a result of a growing surplus, combined US exports of finished gasoline and motor gasoline blending components will rise to over 1 million bpd this year.
自2016年首次進入盈餘以來，2018年美國汽油餘額穩步上升至約35萬桶/天。由於貿易順差不斷增加，今年美國成品汽油和車用汽油混合組分的出口總額將超過100萬桶/天。
However, at the same time, the gasoline deficit in Latin America, which receives most US exports, will narrow slightly as regional gasoline output recovers. With total US gasoline exports expected to rise and the deficit in the US’ primary export market shrinking, exporters will look not only to capture greater market share in Latin America by replacing volumes from other exporters in Europe and Asia, but also look to increase exports to other markets.
然而，與此同時，隨著地區汽油產量的恢復，接受美國大部分出口的拉丁美洲的汽油赤字將略有縮小。隨著美國汽油出口總額預計將上升，美國主要出口市場的赤字將縮小，出口商不僅將尋求通過替代歐洲和亞洲其他出口商的出口量來獲得拉丁美洲更大的市場份額，而且還將尋求增加對其他市場的出口。
But, as ESAI Energy Analyst Ian Page states: “Excess US gasoline volumes will face stiff competition in an oversupplied global market.” In 2019, the Asia-Pacific and FSU gasoline surpluses will both increase. Meanwhile the Middle East’s deficit will shrink dramatically from over 300 000 bpd to less than 150 000 bpd due to major supply growth in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE, where significant refining capacity is coming online. These developments, in combination with rising US exports, will exert bearish pressure on global gasoline markets and gasoline spreads to crude will weaken even further in 2019.
但是，正如歐空局能源分析師伊恩·佩奇（Ian Page）所言：“在供過於求的全球市場上，過剩的美國汽油量將面臨激烈的競爭。”2019年，亞太地區和FSU的汽油盈餘都將增加。與此同時，由於沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和阿聯酋的供應量大幅增長，中東的赤字將從30萬桶/天大幅減少到15萬桶/天以下，這些國家的煉油能力正在大幅提高。這些發展，加上美國出口的增長，將對全球汽油市場施加看跌壓力，2019年汽油與原油的價差將進一步減弱。
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