The US has ruined Afghanistan. It can’t just walk away now
美國毀了阿富汗，現在不能一走了之
美國與塔利班達成框架協議
The departure of American troops risks civil war, and many Afghans fear the return of a fundamentalist society
美國軍隊的撤離可能引發內戰，許多阿富汗人擔心原教旨主義死灰復燃。
The approaching US withdrawal from Afghanistan is not an honourable retreat – it’s a capitulation. The best the Americans can hope for in exit talks with the Taliban, due to resume in Doha later this month, is a promise that coalition troops, unlike the British army led by General Elphinstone in 1842, will not depart under fire. After more than 17 years of conflict, with at least 38,000 civilians killed and millions more injured, traumatised or exiled, none of the long-term objectives set out by George W Bush following the 2001 invasion has been met. In short, the US has lost the war, and lost badly.
美國即將從阿富汗撤軍不是一種光榮的撤退，而是一種投降。本月晚些時候將在多哈恢復與塔利班的撤軍談判，美國人所能期待的最好的結果就是承諾聯軍不會像1842年由埃爾菲斯頓將軍領導的英軍那樣在戰火中撤離。經過17年多的衝突，至少3.8萬平民喪生，數百萬人受傷、折磨或流亡海外，喬治•W•布什(George W Bush)在2001年入侵伊拉克後製定的長期目標沒有一個實現。簡而言之，美國輸了這場戰爭，輸得很慘。
The al-Qaida terrorists who used Afghanistan as a base from which to launch the 9/11 attacks have not been wholly vanquished, as Bush promised. Their former leader, Osama bin Laden, is dead but the group, and likewise Islamic State, made territorial gains in Afghanistan last year, according to UN experts. It is unlikely that Taliban leaders could in future prevent jihadists once again using parts of the country as a terrorist safe haven – a key demand of American negotiators – even if they sincerely wanted to.
以阿富汗為基地發動9/11襲擊的基地組織恐怖分子並沒有像布什承諾的那樣完全被擊敗。據聯合國專家稱，他們的前領導人奧薩馬•本•拉登已經死亡，但該組織，以及類似的伊斯蘭國，去年在阿富汗獲得了領土。塔利班領導人不太可能在未來阻止聖戰分子再次利用該國部分地區作為恐怖分子的避風港——這是美國談判代表的關鍵要求——即使他們真心希望這麼做。
The idea, promoted by successive US administrations and Nato partners such as Britain, that Afghanistan could become a model nation-building exercise has long since been exposed as a neoliberal fantasy. This is not to dismiss the tenacious efforts of British and allied forces on the ground who struggled valiantly, for instance, to bring stability to Helmand province. But they, and the Afghan people, have paid a terrible price for a lack of clarity and candour on the part of the politicians who sent them there.
在歷屆美國政府和英國等北約(Nato)夥伴的推動下，阿富汗可能成為一個模範國家建設行動的想法，長期以來一直被視為一種新自由主義幻想。這並不是要否定英國和盟軍在當地的頑強努力，例如，他們英勇地為赫爾曼德省帶來穩定而鬥爭。但是，他們和阿富汗人民為派他們去阿富汗的政客們缺乏透明度和坦率付出了可怕的代價。
Another delusion – that Afghan security forces could be trained and equipped to a point where they could, unaided, contain the Taliban and control the country – has also been shattered. Despite Nato’s best efforts, 30 to 40 Afghan soldiers and police were being killed each day last autumn. About 45,000 Afghan soldiers have died since 2014. This increase in mortality mirrors the decrease in western troop numbers since the 2011 peak.
另一種錯覺------即阿富汗安全部隊可以得到訓練和裝備，以便在沒有援助的情況下控制塔利班並控制該國-------也已破滅。儘管北約盡了最大努力，去年秋天每天仍有30至40名阿富汗士兵和警察被殺。自2014年以來，大約45000名阿富汗士兵死亡。死亡率的上升反映了自2011年高峰以來西方軍隊數量的減少
Despite massive diplomatic and developmental assistance, the Afghan government holds limited sway beyond the barricaded safe zones of central Kabul. The Taliban refuse to allow it to participate in withdrawal talks, dismissing it as a mere puppet. The implications, once the Americans have gone, are ominous. A rapid descent into civil war, involving government forces, jihadist groups and rival warlords, in a rerun of not-forgotten 1990s anarchy, is a strong possibility. Last year saw record civilian deaths, caused by terror bombings, intensified fighting and increased US airstrikes. Coming years may prove yet more deadly.
儘管得到了大量的外交和發展援助，阿富汗政府在喀布爾中部設置路障的安全區之外的影響力有限。塔利班拒絕讓它參與撤軍談判，認為它只是一個傀儡。一旦美國人離開，其影響是不確定的。政府武裝、聖戰組織和敵對軍閥很有可能迅速陷入內戰，重演上世紀90年代的無政府狀態。去年，由於恐怖爆炸、戰鬥加劇和美國空襲增加，平民死亡人數創下紀錄。未來幾年可能會更加致命。
Even if the worst is avoided, Afghan civil society organisations and education, public health and women’s rights advocates rightly dread the inclusion of Taliban Sunni fundamentalists in any postwar political settlement. Despite assurances to the contrary, the prospective return of Taliban hardliners to positions of influence presages a new dark age of regression, discrimination and bigotry. And how long will any pretence of democratic government persist? As in the past, Afghanistan could quickly revert to a Great Game free-for-all involving Pakistan, India, Russia, Iran – and now China, too. In sum, the Americans are leaving an unholy mess that they, more than any other individual actor, helped create.
即使最壞的情況得以避免，阿富汗公民社會組織、教育、公共衛生和婦女權利倡導者也有理由擔心，塔利班遜尼派原教旨主義者會被納入戰後的任何政治解決方案。儘管得到了相反的保證，但塔利班強硬派可能重新回到有影響力的位置，預示著一個倒退、歧視和偏執的新的黑暗時代。民主政府的偽裝還能持續多久?就像過去一樣，阿富汗可能很快就會重新陷入一場暗無天日的混戰，巴基斯坦、印度、俄羅斯、伊朗。總而言之，美國人正在留下一種邪惡的混亂局面，這種局面是他們自己造成的，比任何其他個人行為者都要嚴重。特朗普想要退出美國最長的戰爭，但是阿富汗人不能就這樣走開
From a narrow US viewpoint, there are still plenty of reasons for quitting while they’re behind. Donald Trump campaigned against “endless wars”, and recently decided to halve the current US force of 14,000. Most voters want the troops out. Billions of dollars have been expended to no lasting effect, while millions more have been lost to corruption. In the absence of any post-9/11 foreign terrorist attacks on US soil, Bush’s old claim that fighting terror abroad avoids the need to fight it at home carries diminishing weight.
從美國狹隘的觀點來看，即使阿富汗亂的一鍋粥，仍然有很多理由撤軍。唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)發起了反對“無休止戰爭”的運動，並在最近決定將目前美國1.4萬人的駐軍數量減半。大多數選民希望撤軍。數十億美元的支出沒有產生持久的效果，還有數百萬美元因腐敗而損失。9/11事件後，外國恐怖分子沒有在美國本土發動任何襲擊。在這種情況下，布什的那句老掉牙的言論——在海外打擊恐怖主義，避免了在國內打擊恐怖主義的必要性——越來越不合時宜。
In a significant shift, the New York Times which, like all major US media, supported the 2001 invasion, called this week for the troops to come home – and eviscerated the overall US approach to fighting terror. Far from eradicating international terrorism as Bush pledged, the “global war on terror” was in large part responsible for the worldwide growth since 2001 of Islamist-inspired terrorist groups, the paper’s editorial noted.
阿富汗部隊押著在掃蕩中抓獲的武裝分子
與美國所有主要媒體一樣，《紐約時報》也支持2001年的入侵行動。本週，《紐約時報》做出了一個重大轉變，呼籲美軍撤回伊拉克，並徹底改變了美國打擊恐怖主義的總體方針。該報社論指出，“全球反恐戰爭”遠未如布什所承諾的那樣根除國際恐怖主義，而是在很大程度上對2001年以來伊斯蘭恐怖組織在全球範圍內的增長負有責任。
Put this another way. The British-supported US global war on terror, which has claimed about half a million lives, been waged across 80 nations, corroded respect for human rights and international law, and cost an estimated $5.9tn, was, from the outset, a catastrophic mistake based on a false premise, aggravated by self-righteous arrogance and an unforgivable ignorance of the world beyond America’s shores. At long last, reality dawns!
換句話說。捅刀子的美國全球反恐戰爭,已經造成約一百萬人喪生,這場戰爭涉及80個國家，耗資5.9萬億美元。美軍及其盟友以反恐為由，踐踏人權和漠視國際法,。基於一個錯誤的信息，自大和無知，就發動了一場災難性的戰爭。最終，被現實打臉了。
Yet wait. Is this a lesson the US leviathan in all its many guises can now safely be assumed to have learned? Not really. Trump’s announcement this week that he plans to redeploy troops and air power from Syria to neighbouring Iraq, in order to “keep watch” on Iran, is the latest clue to Washington’s next Middle East war of choice.
然而,等待。現在，我們可以有把握地假設，美國這個以各種形式出現的軍事力量已經吸取了這一教訓嗎?不是真的。特朗普本週宣佈，他計劃將軍隊和空中力量從敘利亞重新部署到鄰國伊拉克，以“監視”伊朗，這是華盛頓選擇的下一場中東戰爭的最新線索。
US intelligence chiefs told Trump last week that Iran was not a pressing concern, noting that it continued (unlike the US) to honour the 2015 nuclear pact. But Trump and his gang of ideologues and know-nothings, egged on by Israel and the Saudis, persist in mendaciously characterising the Tehran regime as the “world’s leading state sponsor of terror”, and a direct threat to US national security. That is what they said about Saddam Hussein. In Washington speak, it’s a casus belli.
美國情報官員上週告訴特朗普，伊朗不是一個緊迫的問題，並指出伊朗繼續(不像美國)遵守2015年的核協議。但是，在以色列和沙特的慫恿下，特朗普和他的一群空想家和一無所知的人堅持把德黑蘭政權虛假地描述為“世界上支持恐怖主義的頭號國家”，是對美國國家安全的直接威脅。這就是他們對薩達姆•侯賽因的看法。在華盛頓看來，這是開戰的原因。
Perhaps there is something in the nature and psyche of the ever-embattled American republic that means it needs monstrous foreign enemies – hateful bogeymen such as Saddam, Manuel Noriega, Muammar Gaddafi, Nicolás Maduro or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – in order to sustain its own founding myths. King George, the original “tyrant”, was vanquished by force of arms, and they have never forgotten it. It’s a mindset that has to change.
或許，在這個不斷陷入困境的美利堅共和國的本質和精神中，存在著某種東西，這意味著它需要可怕的外敵——如薩達姆、曼努埃爾•諾列加、穆阿邁爾•卡扎菲、尼古拉斯•馬杜羅或阿亞圖拉•阿里•哈梅內伊等可恨的妖魔——來維繫自己的建國神話。喬治國王，最初的“暴君”，被武力征服，他們從未忘記這一點。這是一種必須改變的心態。
Instead of threatening to begin a new war with Iran, US leaders should be trying much harder to end the old one in Afghanistan in a responsible, sustainable, humane manner. Don’t just scuttle away. The US should work with all elements of Afghan society, including Taliban moderates – in a civilian, not military, capacity – to reconstruct the country the war destroyed. After 17 or so years of ultimately pointless,criminal mayhem, an apology plus reparations to the Afghan people would be a good start.
美國領導人不應威脅與伊朗展開一場新的戰爭，而應更努力地以負責任、可持續和人道的方式結束阿富汗的舊戰爭。不要就這樣匆匆離去。美國應該與阿富汗社會的所有成員合作，包括塔利班溫和派——以平民(而非軍事)的能力——重建這個被戰爭摧毀的國家。經過大約17年毫無意義的犯罪暴行，向阿富汗人民道歉並賠償損失將是一個良好的開端。
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