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作者王文系中國人民大學重陽金融研究院執行院長、絲路學院副院長、中美人文交流研究中心執行主任。本文原稿刊於2月17日觀察者網、刪減版刊於2月17日《中國銀行保險報》，英文刊於2月18日《環球時報》英文版。
2020年春節，恐怕是改革開放以來中國人過得最困難、最難忘的新年季。全國上下都以戰時狀態度過這個特殊時期。中國決策層用“戰爭”來鼓舞人民士氣、調動全國資源，“堅決打贏疫情防控的人民戰爭、總體戰、阻擊戰”。
幾天前，波黑前總理茲拉特科•拉古姆季亞發了一段視頻給我，並希望我代他向中國社會表示支持，其中有一句話令我感動：“新冠病毒肆虐下，中國是全球保衛人類的第一道防線。”正是這種決策部署，使本可能會造成更多死亡病例、更大範圍傳染的新冠病毒疫情，控制在目前相對可預見的進程中。
2月17日，觀察者網刊發截圖
不過，中國困難期恐怕還會持續，更多的戰鬥還在後頭。中國人必須有信心打贏五場戰役，才能真正度過2020年困難期。
一是病毒阻擊戰。目前中國應對疫情調動醫療規模和速度已大大超過2008年汶川地震時的醫療救援。世界衛生組織已明確警告，全世界須“清醒地將這個病毒對手視為頭號公敵”。而不少傳染病學家則認為，新冠病毒很可能無法徹底根除。這就意味著中國需要將防疫工作常態化，既要保證各地逐漸有序復工，還要將病毒阻止在絕對可控制的區域或範疇內。中國通過關閉一座1100萬人的超大城市武漢，為阻擊病毒向世界蔓延做出了巨大犧牲。目前，確診人數與死亡病例仍在增加，在湖北之外的蔓延速度已在下降。接下來，中國肯定會繼續縮小病毒傳播的範圍，診斷病理，找到對治療有幫助的特效藥物，最終打贏這場戰役。
二是經濟復甦戰。當前中國的消費、生產與貿易都受到疫情的巨大沖擊。多位經濟學家預測，2020年第一季度，中國經濟可能會受到重創，GDP增長率下降到3.5%－5.0%，是1990年以來的最低水平。疫情也在衝擊中國進出口，影響全球價值鏈的運行，甚至有可能會加重全球經濟的低迷走勢。目前，中國各個部委與地方政府已出臺數百項政策，試圖平衡企業正常運行與疫情防控安全。一場經濟復甦戰已在中國打響。多數機構對中國2020年後三季度的經濟增長持有樂觀態度，認為將會出現不可逆轉的經濟增長反彈。但當務之急是，如何平衡經濟生產與疫情防控，儘可能地恢復市場信心與消費需求。
三是民生保衛戰。疫情對中國民眾的生活與健康造成了重大傷害。截至2月16日，已有約7萬人確診，超過1600人死亡，這是令人悲痛的事情。短期的經濟衰退會使城市中低收入者、農民的利益受損，造成一定規模的失業人群，對中產階層的衝擊也不容忽視。農業減產的風險也應重視。2020年中國絕對消除貧困的目標將變得更加艱難。小康社會全面建成的任務也將變得更為艱鉅。但人民生活水平的提升，是中國共產黨的奮鬥目標。
通過醫療、財政、金融、稅收等諸多手段，儘可能挽回受損民眾的損失，猶如一場戰爭“反攻”時刻那樣刻不容緩。
2月17日《中國銀行保險報》版面截圖
四是國際輿論戰。中國疫情期，諸多國家與民眾對中國捐贈、幫助與加油助威。但也有一些西方媒體與學者以所謂“言論自由”之名對中國抗疫橫加指責、抹黑甚至歧視，用“疾病孵化器”、“亞洲病夫”、“黃禍”等惡毒語句形容中國。在許多人看來，這樣的語句像是另一種病毒，甚至像炮彈，在另一條戰線進攻中國，試圖推動世界仇視中國。這些攻擊折射了寫作者的偏見、傲慢與殘忍，也暴露了他們對中國的狂妄與敵意。但更多的外國人是理解、同情與支持中國的，友華言論與仇華言論之間是一場激烈的輿論戰。
中國需要採取方式加大理解與支持中國聲音的“火力”，壓制住那些輿論戰線上的“敵人”。五是中美經貿戰。疫情讓中美貿易第一階段協議的執行受到了影響，甚至導致中美“脫鉤”加速。特朗普總統比那些攻擊中國的西方媒體與學者更有同情心，多次表示要支持中國抗疫。但中美戰略互信有限，美國主要官員在許多場合惡意質疑中國數據，鼓譟製造業遠離中國，誇大中國疫情形勢，引發國際社會不必要的恐慌。隨著美國新一輪大選的來臨，“中國”話題必須會被熱炒。“後第一階段協議時代”的中美經貿博弈，不排除比第一階段更激烈的可能性。對中國而言，這無疑又是一場新戰役。
近期，新美國安全中心發佈題為《大國持久戰：初步評估》研究報告，美國應就中國崛起展開“持久戰”式的長期規劃。事實上，中國人對民族復興的戰略判斷也是“持久戰”的過程。不同的是，中國戰略理念中的“持久戰”不是對針對美國，也不是主動針對外界任何一個國家，而是如何克服本國發展進程中的重重障礙。
《大國持久戰：初步評估》（Protracted Great-Power War: A Preliminary Assessment）
用“戰役”、“戰爭”來比喻2020年中國克服困難的狀態，並不是說中國人好戰，而是為了表達中國人對困難的認識與克服困難的決心。中國是唯一一個過去40年從未對外使用武力、發動或參與戰爭的大國。這不只是源於中國長期堅持的和平發展外交政策，也源於當代中國人愛好和平的文化特性，更源於中國人希望通過非軍事方式解決複雜問題的意志。從這個更宏大視角看，這場疫情“持久戰”是整個中國崛起“持久戰”的一部分。
所以，面對2020年困境，我相信，中國必勝，中國人必勝！
﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌
Five battles that China must win in 2020
The 2020 Spring Festival might be the most difficult and unforgettable Chinese New Year since the launch of the reform and opening-up four decades ago. The whole country has spent this year's holiday as if it were wartime. Chinese decision-makers have used the word "war" to inspire people's morale and mobilize national resources, stressing the need to resolutely win the people's war against the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP).
A few days ago, Bosnian politician Zlatko Lagumdžija sent me a video, in which he hoped to express, via me, his support to Chinese society. His words touched me: "Today you are on the first line of global defense of humanity under the grim shadow of the novel pandemic."
China's decision-making and deployment of vast resources have managed the NCP in a relatively controllable process, which has prevented more deaths and widespread infection worldwide. China's difficult period may continue for a while and more battles are still to come. Chinese people must have the confidence to win five battles before truly ending this difficult period of 2020.
First, the battle against the coronavirus. At present, the scale and speed of China's response to the NCP has far exceeded that of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The World Health Organization has warned that the world must consider the coronavirus "public enemy number one." Many experts of infectious diseases believe that the NCP may not be completely eradicated. This means that China needs to normalize its epidemic prevention efforts. China needs to ensure the orderly resumption of work, and put the virus' spread under control. By locking down Wuhan, a city with a population of about 11 million that is at the epidemic center in Central China's Hubei Province, China has made great sacrifices to prevent the virus from spreading beyond its borders.China will continue to contain the spread of the virus, diagnose its pathology, find effective medicine and eventually win this battle.
Second, the battle for economic recovery. China's consumption, production and trade are being greatly impacted by the epidemic. Many economists predict that the country may witness its weakest GDP growth rate since 1990, which might slow to 3.5 to 5 percent in the first quarter due to the hit by the epidemic. China's ministries and local authorities have carried out hundreds of policy initiatives in an attempt to strike a balance between the normal operation of enterprises and the prevention and control of the epidemic.
It is generally believed that the fight for economic recovery will kick in China in the second quarter of 2020. Many institutions are optimistic about China's economic growth in the third quarter, believing there will be irreversible rebound.
Third, the battle to safeguard people's livelihood. The epidemic has caused serious harm to the lives and health of the Chinese people. The short-term economic recession will hurt the interests of low- and middle-income Chinese. The impact on the middle class can also not be ignored. The goal of totally eradicating poverty by 2020 will be harder to achieve. Yet raising people's living standards is the aim of the Communist Party of China. It is an urgent battle to recover the losses the epidemic has inflicted on the Chinese people.The recovery is being facilitated through medical, financial, taxation and other measures.
The fourth is the battle of public opinion. During China's fight against the epidemic, the governments of many countries and their people have donated medical supplies to assist and support China. Meanwhile, there are also some Western media and scholars accusing, smearing, and even discriminating against China, calling the country a "disease incubator" and "real sick man of Asia," in the name of freedom of speech.
Many people regard such rhetoric as another kind of virus, or verbal cannonballs, attacking China on a new frontline. These attacks reflect the prejudice, arrogance and brutality of some Westerners, and present their conceit and hostility toward China. This is a fierce battle for public opinion.
The fifth battle is the US-launched trade war against China. The outbreak has affected the implementation of the phase one trade deal. It has even accelerated the "decoupling" of the two countries. The mutual strategic trust between China and the US remains limited. With the approaching US presidential election, the subject of China will undoubtedly spark heated debates. The possibility cannot be ruled out that the China-US trade rivalry - post phase one trade deal - will be even more intense.
Describing China's state of overcoming tough challenges in 2020 with words such as "battle" and "war" does not indicate the Chinese people are aggressive. It expresses their awareness of the difficulties and their determination to settle them. China hasn't resorted to force or launched a war in four decades. This is due to not only China's foreign policy, which underlines peaceful development, but also the peace-loving culture of modern Chinese people, and their willingness to combat complicated issues by non-military means. From a grander perspective, the battle of the epidemic is part of the "protracted war" of China's rise.
In the face of the plight of 2020, I believe China and the Chinese people will prevail!
(The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, at Renmin University of China and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His new book Great Power's Long March Road was launched recently.)
病毒難除，但“病毒恐懼症”可消除，讓經濟早日迴歸常態
【老外看疫情1】波黑前總理：疫情肆虐，中國是全球保衛人類的第一道防線（中英雙語）
【變局專欄24】歷史會記載疫情下的中國力量、西方傲慢（中英雙語）
【變局專欄23】警惕，“負”時代正在到來（中英雙語）
中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資董事長裘國根先生向母校捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。
作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4箇中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。
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