Excess Asian savings are weighing on global interest rates
亞洲儲蓄過剩對全球利率造成影響
But Asian officials argue that criticism of their current-account surpluses misses the mark
但亞洲官員認為，對其活期賬戶盈餘的批評沒有切中要害
l weigh v. 我們熟知的意思是稱重，這裡的意思是“對…有重大影響”。
l current-account adj.活期存款賬戶，往來賬戶的
l miss the mark 沒有打中目標，沒有達到目的
Print edition | Finance and economics
Nov 23rd 2019| SHANGHAI
It is nearly 15 years since Ben Bernanke, then the chairman of the Federal Reserve, argued that a “global saving glut” had fuelled America’s giant current-account deficit. Much has changed since then. The American deficit has shrunk, oil exporters’ surpluses have dwindled and central banks everywhere have dramatically expanded their balance-sheets. But another feature of the world that Mr Bernanke described in early 2005 looks strikingly familiar: Asia’s stockpile of savings remains enormous, and it is getting bigger by the year.
l glut n. 供過於求，過量供應
l fuel v.我們熟知的意思是名詞，表示“燃料”；這裡是動詞，表示“刺激、使變得更糟，使加劇”
l dwindle v. 逐漸變少，變小
l balance-sheet資產負債表
l strikingly adv.醒目地，引人側目地
l stockpile n. 大量的儲備、囤積
15年前時任的美聯儲主席Ben Bernanke曾宣稱“全球儲蓄過剩”加重了美國鉅額活期賬戶赤字。從那以後發生了很多變化。美國的赤字已經在縮小，石油出口國的盈餘已經在減少，世界各地央行都大幅擴大了它們的資產負債表。但Bernanke先生在2005年初描述的世界的另一個特徵看起來卻驚人的熟悉：亞洲儲蓄仍然巨大，而且逐年增加。
For East Asia as a whole, each year gross domestic savings add up to 35% of gdp, and little has changed over the past three decades (see chart). This is not just an academic curiosity. Mr Bernanke’s concern in the early 2000s was that Asia’s excess cash was flooding into bond markets in America and beyond, depressing long-term real interest rates. When the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, some economists pointed to the Asian saving glut as an underlying cause of the housing boom and bust from Las Vegas to Dublin. With interest rates even lower now, some are again asking whether excessive saving in Asia is storing up trouble for the global economy.
l concern n.我們熟知的意思是“關心，關切”，這裡的意思是“擔心、憂慮”
l erupt v. 突然發生，爆發
l cause n.常指壞事的原因，誘因
l bust n. 破產，蕭條。也可以指半身像、胸部
就整個東亞而言，每年國內總儲蓄額佔GDP的比例高達35%，而過去30年幾乎沒有變化。這不僅僅是學術上的好奇。Bernanke在21世紀初的擔憂是，亞洲過剩的現金正湧入美國及其他地區的債券市場，壓低長期實際利率。2008年全球金融危機爆發時，一些經濟學家指出，從拉斯維加斯到都柏林，亞洲儲蓄過剩是房地產繁榮和蕭條的根本原因。隨著現在的利率甚至更低，一些人再次質疑亞洲的過渡儲蓄是否給全球經濟埋下隱患。
There are certainly echoes with 15 years ago. High savings rates in Asia continue to translate into large current-account surpluses. Over the past five years East Asia’s current-account surplus has averaged about $525bn annually, a touch higher in cash terms than the average in the five years preceding the 2008 crisis. The distribution has shifted: China’s surplus peaked a decade ago, while those of South Korea and Taiwan are bigger than they used to be. The current-account surpluses in Asia’s big economies add up to about 0.6% of global gdp,roughly the same as that of Europe’s surplus economies, including Germany’s, in combination.
l echo我們熟知的意思是“回聲、迴響”，這裡的意思是“重複、附和”
l touch我們熟知的意思是觸碰，這裡是表示“稍許、略微”。
與15年前的情況肯定有類似之處。亞洲高儲蓄率繼續轉換為鉅額活期賬戶盈餘。過去的5年，東亞活期賬戶盈餘平均每年約為5250億美元，以現金計算，略高於2008年金融危機前五年的平均水平。分配發生了變化：中國的貿易順差在10年前達到了頂峰，而韓國和臺灣的貿易順差比過去更大。亞洲主要經濟體的活期賬戶盈餘加起來約佔全球GDP的0.6%，與包括德國在內的歐洲盈餘經濟體的總和大致相同。
未完...
【原文獲取渠道】
分享並“寫上一句評論”@九月美語（新浪微博）。即可獲得“原文+翻譯+生詞標註+音頻”（請私信註明）。
閱讀更多 九月美語 的文章
