自08年雷曼破產2天后，投資大師霍華德馬克思發出投資備忘錄-Nobody Knows（沒人能預知），時隔12年，於3月3日再次發文-Nobody Knows II（沒人能預知-二），再次引人深思：
1、美股較2月19日的高點已經下跌了13%，
2、美聯儲降息50個基點也未能調整市場的情緒，
3、10年期國債收益率已跌破1%
馬克思提到，疫情可能是主要影響此次市場大跌的主要因素，因為面對這些問題，沒人能準確回答：
1、How does the virus travel from person to person and community to community?
往往發現確診患者無接觸史的染病，所以他怎麼染病的？
2、How many people will contract it?
有多少美國人會受影響? Lipstich博士說，至少40%~70%麼美國人會受影響。
3、Will it recede?
疫情會減緩嗎？中國確診人數逐步降低，誰能確定世界其他區域的患病人數會降低-前提是“自有出入”沒有被限制。
4、
What will its effect be?
致死率目前是2~3%，美國會保持這樣的數據？
5、What countermeasures will be taken? – Will schools and offices be closed? Will people be told to stay in their homes? Will food be delivered to homes as in China? Will large public events be canceled? Will a vaccine be invented, and when?
目前為止，美國有何應對措施？學校、辦公室關閉？美國會像中國一樣派送食物給隔離在家的居民(大大的問號)？疫苗會有嗎，什麼時候會有？
6、What will be the effect on the economy?
人們在家，GDP相應地會降低多少？還會有增長嗎？
7、How will the markets react? – Since the markets’ reaction ultimately will be a function of both economics and emotion, it seems impossible to quantify how far it’ll go.
沒人能最終量化且判定市場最終會怎麼走以及走多遠。
馬克思說到，那我們該做什麼？從這位“價值”投資大師的隻言片語中，我們如何拾得牙慧？
These days, people have been asking me whether this is the time to buy. My answer is more nuanced: it’s probably a time to buy.
他提到，大家在問，7個交易日內，市場跌了13%，那這時候是否買入的時刻嗎？我的回答有些細微不同：它可能是個買入的時間點。
There can be no unique time to buy that we can identify. The only thing we can be sure of today is that stock prices, for example, are a lot lower in the absolute than they were two weeks ago.
沒有可以確定的確定而唯一的買入時間，但今天我們唯一可以確定的是，市場目前的絕對價格比兩週前要低得多。
Will stocks decline in the coming days, weeks and months? This is the wrong question to ask . . . primarily because it is entirely unanswerable. Instead, intelligent investing has to be based – as always – on the relationship between price and value. In other words, not “will the collapse go further?” But rather “has the collapse to date caused securities to be priced right; or are they overpriced given the fundamentals; or have they become cheap?”
未來幾天，幾周和幾個月，股市會繼續下調嗎？
這是個錯誤的問題， 主要是因為它完全無法回答。
相反，明智的投資必須像往常一樣基於價格和價值之間的關係。換句話說，不是“市場會進一步崩潰嗎？” 而是“迄今為止的市場崩潰導致證券被正確定價；還是考慮到基本面，它們被高估了？還是變得便宜了？”——大師讓我們在正確的思考和對市場進行清晰的判定。
So, especially after we’ve learned more about the coronavirus and developed a vaccine, it seems to me that it is unlikely to fundamentally and permanently change life as we know it, make the world of the future unrecognizable, and decimate business or make valuing it impossible. (Yes, this is a guess: we have to make some of them.)
因此，尤其是在我們對冠狀病毒有了更多瞭解並開發了疫苗之後，在我看來，不太可能從根本上永久地改變我們所認知的生活，使未來的世界變得不可識別，並削弱企業發展或使得不再能對企業進行價值評估。
所以，外國人的思維有個很大的特性，病毒會有，但它不會永遠使得正常生活停滯，生活會繼續，工作會繼續，那麼正確的選擇“時間節點“聰明的“買入”，便是大師對我們更多的啟示！
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