(David Foster/Yahoo Finance)

(大衛·福斯特/雅虎財經)

“Millions of Americans are filing for benefits, and that means the economy is not just staring down at the abyss, it has fallen off the cliff and down into the depths of recession,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, said in an email Thursday. “How far it goes is anyone's guess, but certainly close to 10 million people are out of work, and this means the official unemployment rate will match the 10% threshold of pain reached in the 1981-82 and 2007-09 recessions.”

MUFG Union Bank首席金融分析師Chris Rupkey週四在電子郵件中表示，"數以百萬計的美國人正在申請失業金，這意味著經濟並非只是在深淵中徘徊，而是已經跌落懸崖，跌入衰退的深淵。"“它會走多遠，誰也說不準，但肯定有近1000萬人失業，這意味著官方失業率將達到1981-82年和2007-09年衰退期間達到的10%的痛苦閾值。”

“In previous deep recessions, most notably in 2008 and 1980, initial claims during the worst four weeks of the recession would total 2 [million],” Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note to clients March 22. “That is consistent with the shock from COVID-19 compressing a significant deterioration in the labor market into a much shorter period relative to previous contractions.”

野村證券(Nomura)經濟學家劉易斯•亞歷山大(Lewis Alexander) 3月22日在一份客戶報告中寫道:“在以往的深度衰退中，尤其是2008年和1980年，衰退最嚴重的四周中首次申領失業救濟金的人數總計為200萬。”“這與COVID-19帶來的衝擊是一致的，它將勞動力市場的顯著惡化壓縮到一個相對於之前的收縮短得多的時期。”

[See Also: The computers can't handle the spike in unemployment claims: Connecticut governor]

[另見:康涅狄格州州長:計算機無法處理失業申請的激增]

Uncertainty is high, and so the range of estimates for Thursday’s report was unusually wide. Economists at Citi estimated claims would explode to 4 million. Meanwhile, UBS economists estimated the tally would come in at 860,000.

不確定性很高，因此週四報告的預測範圍異常廣泛。花旗(Citi)經濟學家估計，申請失業救濟的人數將激增至400萬。與此同時，瑞銀(UBS)經濟學家估計，這一數字將達到86萬。

Alexander noted that the sudden spike in weekly initial jobless claims will likely not persist for long at these elevated levels; however, it implies that non-farm payroll job losses could be heavily front loaded relative to previous recessions which means the unemployment rate could rise even more rapidly.

Alexander指出，每週初請失業金人數的突然增加可能不會持續太久;不過，這意味著非農就業崗位的流失可能會比以往的衰退更為嚴重，這意味著失業率可能會更快地上升。

Recent indications from individual states pointed to initial jobless claims in the millions.

最近個別州的數據顯示，首次申請失業救濟的人數達數百萬。

“Early state reports this week indicate initial claims for the week ended March 21 will rocket well over one million next week—and possibly as high as three million,” Wells Fargo wrote in a note March 20. “That would surpass anything we saw during the financial crisis and could be upwards of three times the all-time high in claims set back in 1982. This will shock even the most bearish forecasters. As economic activity is grinding to a halt, the U.S. economy is quickly catapulting into a recession.”

富國銀行在3月20日的一份報告中寫道:“本週早些時候的國家報告顯示，截至3月21日當週的首次申請失業救濟人數將在下週飆升至100多萬，甚至可能高達300萬。”“這將超過我們在金融危機期間看到的任何情況，並可能是1982年創下的最高索賠記錄的三倍以上。”這甚至會讓最悲觀的預測者感到震驚。隨著經濟活動逐漸停止，美國經濟迅速陷入衰退。”

Connecticut was expected to see approximately 80,000 claims last week, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley.

根據摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)編制的數據，康涅狄格州上週預計將有大約8萬人申請失業救濟。

“The [unemployment claims] are going through the roof,” said Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “The computer system has reached its threshold a couple of times right now.”

康涅狄格州州長內德•拉蒙特(Ned Lamont)在接受雅虎財經(Yahoo Finance)採訪時表示:“(申領失業救濟的)人數正在飆升。”“現在，計算機系統已經達到了它的閾值好幾次了。”

In addition, many states waived requirements that recently laid off workers must wait one week before filing a claim.

此外，許多州放棄了最近解僱的工人必須等待一週才能提出索賠的要求。

The rapid spread of the coronavirus has led to massive business disruptions in the U.S. over the past several weeks. A growing number of cities across the country ordered residents to “shelter in place,” and non-essential businesses such as sit-down restaurants and retail stores have been forced to shut their doors. As a result, the pace of layoffs has been swift.

過去幾周，冠狀病毒的迅速蔓延導致美國的商業活動出現大規模中斷。全國範圍內，越來越多的城市要求居民“就地避難”，而一些非必要的行業，如小餐館和零售商店也被迫關門。因此，裁員的速度很快。

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