U.S. jobless claims skyrocket to 3.283 million
美国首次申请失业救济人数飙升至328.3万人
The COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy, and data released Thursday morning reflected the severe damage being done to the labor market.
COVID-19大流行正在对美国经济造成严重破坏，周四上午公布的数据反映了劳动力市场受到的严重损害。
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits skyrocketed to a record-breaking 3.283 million for the week ended March 21. Consensus expectations were for 1.64 million claims. The previous record was 695,000 claims filed the week ended October 2, 1982. Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 14 was revised higher to 282,000 from 281,000 and was the largest single-week increase since the Great Recession.
截至3月21日当周，美国申请失业救济人数飙升至创纪录的328.3万人。普遍预期为164万件索赔要求。此前的记录是在1982年10月2日当周提交的69.5万份申请。截至3月14日当周初请失业金人数从28.1万人上修至28.2万人，为大衰退以来最大单周增幅。
(David Foster/Yahoo Finance)
(大卫·福斯特/雅虎财经)
“Millions of Americans are filing for benefits, and that means the economy is not just staring down at the abyss, it has fallen off the cliff and down into the depths of recession,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, said in an email Thursday. “How far it goes is anyone's guess, but certainly close to 10 million people are out of work, and this means the official unemployment rate will match the 10% threshold of pain reached in the 1981-82 and 2007-09 recessions.”
MUFG Union Bank首席金融分析师Chris Rupkey周四在电子邮件中表示，"数以百万计的美国人正在申请失业金，这意味着经济并非只是在深渊中徘徊，而是已经跌落悬崖，跌入衰退的深渊。"“它会走多远，谁也说不准，但肯定有近1000万人失业，这意味着官方失业率将达到1981-82年和2007-09年衰退期间达到的10%的痛苦阈值。”
“In previous deep recessions, most notably in 2008 and 1980, initial claims during the worst four weeks of the recession would total 2 [million],” Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note to clients March 22. “That is consistent with the shock from COVID-19 compressing a significant deterioration in the labor market into a much shorter period relative to previous contractions.”
野村证券(Nomura)经济学家刘易斯•亚历山大(Lewis Alexander) 3月22日在一份客户报告中写道:“在以往的深度衰退中，尤其是2008年和1980年，衰退最严重的四周中首次申领失业救济金的人数总计为200万。”“这与COVID-19带来的冲击是一致的，它将劳动力市场的显著恶化压缩到一个相对于之前的收缩短得多的时期。”
[See Also: The computers can't handle the spike in unemployment claims: Connecticut governor]
[另见:康涅狄格州州长:计算机无法处理失业申请的激增]
Uncertainty is high, and so the range of estimates for Thursday’s report was unusually wide. Economists at Citi estimated claims would explode to 4 million. Meanwhile, UBS economists estimated the tally would come in at 860,000.
不确定性很高，因此周四报告的预测范围异常广泛。花旗(Citi)经济学家估计，申请失业救济的人数将激增至400万。与此同时，瑞银(UBS)经济学家估计，这一数字将达到86万。
Alexander noted that the sudden spike in weekly initial jobless claims will likely not persist for long at these elevated levels; however, it implies that non-farm payroll job losses could be heavily front loaded relative to previous recessions which means the unemployment rate could rise even more rapidly.
Alexander指出，每周初请失业金人数的突然增加可能不会持续太久;不过，这意味着非农就业岗位的流失可能会比以往的衰退更为严重，这意味着失业率可能会更快地上升。
Recent indications from individual states pointed to initial jobless claims in the millions.
最近个别州的数据显示，首次申请失业救济的人数达数百万。
“Early state reports this week indicate initial claims for the week ended March 21 will rocket well over one million next week—and possibly as high as three million,” Wells Fargo wrote in a note March 20. “That would surpass anything we saw during the financial crisis and could be upwards of three times the all-time high in claims set back in 1982. This will shock even the most bearish forecasters. As economic activity is grinding to a halt, the U.S. economy is quickly catapulting into a recession.”
富国银行在3月20日的一份报告中写道:“本周早些时候的国家报告显示，截至3月21日当周的首次申请失业救济人数将在下周飙升至100多万，甚至可能高达300万。”“这将超过我们在金融危机期间看到的任何情况，并可能是1982年创下的最高索赔记录的三倍以上。”这甚至会让最悲观的预测者感到震惊。随着经济活动逐渐停止，美国经济迅速陷入衰退。”
Connecticut was expected to see approximately 80,000 claims last week, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley.
根据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)编制的数据，康涅狄格州上周预计将有大约8万人申请失业救济。
“The [unemployment claims] are going through the roof,” said Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “The computer system has reached its threshold a couple of times right now.”
康涅狄格州州长内德•拉蒙特(Ned Lamont)在接受雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)采访时表示:“(申领失业救济的)人数正在飙升。”“现在，计算机系统已经达到了它的阈值好几次了。”
In addition, many states waived requirements that recently laid off workers must wait one week before filing a claim.
此外，许多州放弃了最近解雇的工人必须等待一周才能提出索赔的要求。
The rapid spread of the coronavirus has led to massive business disruptions in the U.S. over the past several weeks. A growing number of cities across the country ordered residents to “shelter in place,” and non-essential businesses such as sit-down restaurants and retail stores have been forced to shut their doors. As a result, the pace of layoffs has been swift.
过去几周，冠状病毒的迅速蔓延导致美国的商业活动出现大规模中断。全国范围内，越来越多的城市要求居民“就地避难”，而一些非必要的行业，如小餐馆和零售商店也被迫关门。因此，裁员的速度很快。
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