害怕中国？印度退出RCEP可能害人害己

最近被哔了太多新闻翻译稿，挺打击翻译积极性的。。。。不知道这篇美媒对印度因害怕中国产品突然宣布退出RCEP的分析是否能通过

India is opting out of a China-backed trade deal. That could hurt its economy

印度退出由中国支持的贸易协定的举动，可能伤害其自身经济

New Delhi - India is ducking out of one of the world's largest free trade agreements, saying it wants to protect its farmers and local businesses. That decision risks hurting the country's already struggling economy.

新德里—印度在面对世界最大的自由贸易协定时选择了闪躲，声称是为了保护其农民及当地工商业。这个决定可能进一步伤害到该国已经陷入泥潭的经济增长。

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided not to sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) at a summit in Bangkok, Thailand on Monday, a proposed trade pact involving 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

印度总理莫迪周一在泰国曼谷的峰会上最终决定不签署这个涵盖亚太16个国家的区域全面经济伙伴协定（简称RCEP）。

"India had significant issues of core interest that remained unresolved," Vijay Thakur Singh, a senior official at India's foreign ministry, told reporters late Monday. Modi was concerned about the "fairness and balance of the agreement" and the "impact it would have on the lives and livelihoods of all Indians, especially vulnerable sections of society," Singh added.

“印度核心利益问题还未得到解决，”印度外交部资深官员Vijay Thakur Singh周一接受采访时说，“莫迪对协定的公平及平衡性仍有疑虑，并担心其可能影响到所有印度人的生计，尤其是社会上的脆弱阶层。”

India was worried that its market could be flooded with Chinese goods as well as agricultural and dairy products from countries like Australia and New Zealand. Local trade groups as well as India's main opposition party had urged the government not to sign the RCEP.

印度还担心国内市场会充斥中国产品以及澳洲及新西兰的农产品，因此当地的商业组织及印度主要的反对党都要求政府不要签署RCEP。

Modi has walked a tightrope when it comes to India's economy, trying to strike a balance between promoting local businesses and attracting more foreign investment.

在印度的经济问题上，莫迪一直在走钢丝——试图在促进当地工商业发展与吸引更多外商投资上找到平衡。

"I think it's the fallout on the domestic [side] that has motivated this decision," said Rajat Kathuria, director of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations.

印度国会内部的国际经济关系研究小组主席Rajat Kathuria认为“是国内因素的影响导致了这个结果。”

Kathuria said that while some of India's concerns are "legitimate," overseas competition would have strengthened Indian industry at a time when the country's economic growth has slumped to its lowest level in six years.

"RCEP would have provided a much-needed external push for our industry to gear up, and to become more competitive," he said.

他还认为虽然印度的部分担忧是合理的，但当印度经济增长陷入六年来最低谷的时候，来自海外的竞争可以增强印度工业体质，“RCEP本来可以成为印度工业提档升级的外部推动力，使其更具竞争力。”

The other 15 countries, including China, Japan, Australia, Thailand and Vietnam, said in a joint statement that they would go ahead and sign the agreement next year and "work together to resolve [India's] outstanding issues" in the meantime.

包括中国、日本、澳大利亚、泰国和越南等其它15国，在一项联合声明中宣布它们明年将签署协定，与此同时“继续合作解决（印度的）遗留问题。”

Some experts fear India is missing out on a chance to join a major trading area that will form a key part of global manufacturing supply chains.

部分专家担心印度正在错失参与这个将重塑国际制造业供应链的贸易区的机会。

"India will ultimately suffer significant geopolitical and economic costs if it decides to stay out of RCEP, compromising its strategic influence in Asia and ability to participate in regional supply chains," analysts at the Eurasia Group wrote in a research note.

“如果印度最终选择置身RCEP之外，它最终将承受严重的地区政治及经济上的后果，会降低其在亚洲的战略影响力以及参与地区供应链的能力。”欧亚组织的分析员在一份调研报告中写道。

While the door for India to join the agreement remains open, it may find it more difficult to get the deal it wants, which includes retaining some tariffs on imports into India and getting better access to service industries in other RCEP countries. And the damage may have already been done.

虽然印度参与该协定的大门还未关闭，但其谈下理想条款的可能性正在降低，例如保留部分进口产品关税及改善服务业在其他RCEP国家的准入状况。伤害可能已经造成了。

"You're just reinforcing the often-held perception that India is a difficult country to do business with," Kathuria said. "Joining at a later stage would mean that we would have to give more concessions," he added.

Kathuria说“这么做实际上强化了印度是个难做生意国家的普遍印象。并且之后再参与意味着需要进行更多的让步。”

"India will now try to mitigate the damage done to its relations with [the other countries] as well as the negative message it sends to international businesses and investors," the Eurasia Group analysts wrote. "But the shenanigans in Thailand, after years of negotiations, will not fill other countries with enthusiasm for discussing trade deals with India."

欧亚组织的分析报告也认为“印度现在需要尝试减轻此举对其与他国关系的伤害以及向国际投资者所传递的负面信息。但经多轮谈判后，印度在泰国的任性举动，将影响到其它国家之后与印度进行贸易谈判的愿望。”