不出門環遊世界

Japan's biggest airline is betting that the future of travel isn't traveling at all. For the last month, a married couple has been interacting with a robot — called an Avatar — that's controlled by their daughter hundreds of miles away. Made by ANA Holdings Inc., it looks like a vacuum cleaner with an iPad attached. *** But the screen displays the daughter’s face as they chat, and its wheels let her trundle about the house as though she’s really there.

日本最大的航空公司認為未來的旅遊將和現在的截然不同。在過去的一個月裡，一對夫妻一直在和一個名叫 Avatar 的機器人互動，Avatar 由這對夫妻幾百英里之外的女兒所遙控。這臺機器人由全日空控股株式會社製造，它看起來像是一臺接上了 iPad 的吸塵器。但這對夫妻和女兒聊天時，“iPad”的屏幕上會顯示女兒的臉，她可以藉助機器人的輪子在房子裡緩慢地來回移動，就好像她真的在那一樣。

“Virtual travel” is nothing new, of course. Storytellers, travel writers and artists have been stimulating the senses of armchair tourists for centuries. It's only in recent decades that frequent, safe travel has become available to the non-wealthy. ***

當然，“虛擬旅遊”並不是什麼新鮮事。數百年來，講故事的人、旅行作家和藝術家們都在為那些足不出戶的“神遊”旅行者們製造身臨其境的感官體驗。直到近幾十年，不算富有的普通人才能夠經常地享受安全可靠的旅行。

Yet even as the world's middle classes climb out of the armchair and into economy-class seats, there are hints of a post-travel society emerging. Concerns about sustainability are taking a toll on carbon-intensive airlines. And the aging of affluent societies is both inhibiting physical travel and creating demand for alternative ways to experience the world. For the travel industry, virtual reality offers a tantalizing response to these trends.

然而，雖然全世界的中產階級漸漸從家裡走出來，開始乘坐經濟艙出行，仍有跡象表明，“後旅遊社會”正在形成。人們對環境可持續性的擔憂正在讓碳排放量很高的航空公司蒙受損失。另外，隨著富裕社會步入老齡化，人們對於親身旅遊的需求在降低，而對以其他方式體驗世界的需求在上升。虛擬現實（技術）為旅遊業的這些趨勢提供了誘人的解決方案。

Of course, far-out technologies encourage far-out claims. ANA doesn't plan to start selling Avatars until next year. Profits, too, will probably be elusive: By one estimate, the global market for this kind of technology will be worth only about $300 million by 2023. By contrast, ANA’s traditional travel business brought in more than $19 billion last year.

當然，超前的科技會帶來過於超前的判斷。全日空控股株式會社在明年之前都不打算售賣 Avatar 機器人。而且，該技術要實現盈利可能還遙遙無期：據估算，至 2023 年，該項科技的全球市場總估值僅有大約 3 億美元，相比之下，全日空控股株式會社的傳統旅遊業務僅去年就帶來了超過 190 億美元的收益。

But if the business case for virtual vacations is still weak, the market for technologies that bridge physical distances between families and coworkers seems likely to only expand. ANA's robots may not replace its airplanes any time soon, but they’ll almost certainly be a part of travel's high-tech future.

雖然目前虛擬度假可能還沒有足夠的商業價值，但對於這種縮短家人、同事之間地理距離的科技，其市場需求似乎只會有增無減。全日空控股株式會社的機器人可能不會很快取代飛機，但幾乎可以肯定的是，它們一定會成為高科技旅遊業未來的一部分。