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3分鐘編者按：環球時報英文版4月21日刊發“變局”專欄第34篇，作者中國人民大學重陽金融研究院執行院長王文認為，這場疫情的衝擊仍未見底，每一個人都應該有儘可能低的底線思維。
本文英文版在Global Times的版面截圖
溫斯頓•邱吉爾先生有句名言：你能看到多遠的過去，就能看到多遠的未來。新冠肺炎疫情一次次擊穿人們此前的預設，原本以為只是新的一場SARS，後來又有預測可能夏天到了，疫情就能結束。現在已4月下旬，全球已近300萬感染者，近20萬人死亡，已有觀點認為，疫情蔓延可能還只是在早期，扇動全球疫情颶風的那隻蝴蝶的翅膀還沒有完全展開。
人類顯然已對未來充滿著焦慮與恐懼，不知什麼時候是疫情的終點。人類的茫然感，主要是源於漠視、輕視傳染病作為人類頭號敵人的變量。此時，最好的辦法是靜下心來，讀一讀歷史書。
其實，早在世界最古老的國家發源地古代蘇美爾，就已經有人傳人的傳染病史證。傳染病的傷害，首先是人口數量的削減。公元前3000年，在美索不達米亞平原，閃米特人出乎意料地快速地取代蘇美爾人，最有可能的歷史推測就是疾病造成的蘇美爾大量人口死亡。誠如我此前專欄所說，傳染病伴隨著五千年國家興衰史的始終。
對當下仍是全球綜合實力最強的美國而言，決策者們最好多讀一讀像修昔底德《伯羅奔尼撒戰爭史》、吉本《羅馬帝國衰亡史》之類的歷史著作，看看當年波斯帝國、強大的雅典帝國、亞歷山大帝國與羅馬帝國，是怎樣在瘟疫面前變得弱不禁風。遇上大瘟疫，很短時間內，諸多古代帝國出現了社會混亂、饑饉、流浪者集聚、生產遭破產，由強變弱，甚至帝國的大廈一夜崩塌。可見，面對傳染病這個敵人，越強大的帝國，越需要保持謙遜、防禦，而不是狂妄、無知。對當下暫時取得階段性防疫勝利的中國而言，精英們最好能讀一讀約翰•巴里《大流感：最致命瘟疫的史詩》。在1918年開始的那場人類社會與自然力第一次大對決之後，人們決定發展醫療技術和現代理念去直面自然的陌生力量。此後，美國醫學界領袖們開始倡導革新，決心將美國從世界落後的醫學國家提升為最先進的強國。中國人應汲取百年前的美國崛起營養，不必驕傲自滿，更不必盲目放鬆，而是在取得領先於世界的防疫經驗之後，繼續積攢防疫常態化、有效復工復產的國家治理經驗，獲取更多可持續發展、真正解決民眾疾苦的動能與力量。
對每一位希冀洞悉未來的普通人而言，不妨讀一讀14世紀有關黑死病歷史著作。那是人類文明史上最黑暗的時刻。歐洲約有1/3的人口死於疫情。在東方，蒙古人統治下的中國，戰爭與瘟疫的雙重無情蹂躪下，人口從1.23億減少到了6000萬。但東西方的應對差異導致完全不同的發展前景。在中國，人們仍重複著封建王朝的更替。在歐洲，人們則勇敢地與過去割裂，開始反思自己的價值與權益，批判麻痺的宗教意識，最終喚醒了文藝復興，創造了後來領銜於世界的西方文明。
這場疫情的衝擊仍未見底，每一個人都應該有儘可能低的底線思維。要知道，5000年文明史後的今天，人類仍然未徹底地打開傳染病的生態龕。人類已經生活在這個星球最不可琢磨的生態動盪中，人與微生物、人與大自然的相處關係該如何破解，該如何重塑，呼喚著新的思想革命。 幾周來，基辛格、約瑟夫•奈、托馬斯•弗裡德曼、沃爾夫等幾乎世界上最領銜的思想者們都在講，2020年註定因新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延而作為“分水嶺之年”記入史冊。但到底是哪種類型的分水嶺？像2008年國際金融危機那樣的“經濟週期分水嶺”，或是像1991年冷戰結束那樣的“大國格局分水嶺”，或是1945年二戰結束那樣的“世界秩序分水嶺”，或乾脆像1519年麥哲倫環行地球那樣的“文明更替分水嶺”？
答案不只是在新冠肺炎疫情的未來態勢中，也在每一個敢於思考的人手裡。
以下為英文版
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Reading the past can help us see the future
Former British prime minister Winston Churchill once said: "The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see." The COVID-19 pandemic has repeatedly broken people's previous assumptions. At first people thought it was just a new SARS, then it was predicted to likely come to an end when summer arrives.
It's now already late April and over 2.4 million people have been infected and nearly 170,000 people have died worldwide. Now some people believe the pandemic may only be in its early stages, and the wings of the butterfly that spurred this global hurricane have not yet fully expanded.
People are clearly full of anxiety and fearful of the future. We do not know when the pandemic will end.
This situation has arisen due to our indifference and contempt for infectious diseases, which are the number one enemy of human health. The best way to cope is to calm down and look for answers in history books.
Evidence shows that the ancient Sumer, one of the first civilizations in the world, suffered infectious diseases that were transmitted from person to person causing a reduction in the population. Around 3,000 BC, on the Mesopotamian plains, the Semites unexpectedly replaced the Sumerians. A reasonable assumption is that infectious disease led to mass deaths of Sumerians. As I said in my previous column, infectious diseases have caused countries to rise and fall over the last 5,000 years.
For the US, which is still the world's most powerful country in terms of overall strength, policy makers had better read History of the Peloponnesian Warby Thucydides andThe History of The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empireby Edward Gibbon. They would learn how the Persian Empire, Athenian Empire, Alexander Empire and Roman Empire grew weaken in the face of a plague. A short time after encountering a plague, many ancient empires experienced social chaos, famine, homelessness, bankruptcy, and even imminent collapse.When coping with an infectious disease, the stronger the empire the more modest it needs to be. Arrogance and ignorance have proven fatal.
China has successfully curtailed the worst of the epidemic, but to take a lesson from The Great Influenza:The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, by US historian John M. Barry, still can be helpful.
After the first worldwide confrontation between humanity and nature in 1918, scientists developed medical technology and modern concepts to confront the unfamiliar force of nature. Since then, US medical experts have been determined to elevate the country from the world's medical backward to the most advanced.
Chinese people should learn from the rise of the US. We should not be arrogant or blindly relax. Instead, after gaining world-leading experience in epidemic prevention, we should continue to accumulate experience, so as to gain more power for sustainable development and solving people's difficulties.
People who wants to know the future, should read the history of the Black Death in the 14th century. That was the darkest moment in the history of human civilization. About a third of the population in Europe died from the plague. In the East, the population of China during the Yuan Dynasty (1279-1368) suffered a sharp decline due to war and plague.
The different ways the East and the West dealt with the plague led to completely different development prospects. In China, people were still living under feudal dynasties.
But in Europe, people bravely separated from the past and started to reflect on their values and rights. They criticized the paralyzing religious consciousness and finally awakened during the Renaissance, creating the Western civilization that later led the world.
The impact of this COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. Everyone should have the lowest possible expectations.Today, after more than 5,000 years of civilization, humans still have not completely understood infectious diseases. Human are living in the most unpredictable ecologically turbulent era this planet has ever faced. We need a revolution in our thinking about how humans reshape their relationship with microorganisms and nature.
The world's leading thinkers including Henry Kissinger, Joseph Nye, and Thomas Friedman have said that the COVID-19 pandemic will alter the world order. But in which way? Will the year 2020 be a watershed in economic cycles like the 2008 financial crisis? A watershed like the great power structure change after the end of the Cold War in 1991? A watershed like the one in world order at the end of WWII in 1945? Or even a watershed for civilizations brought by Ferdinand Magellan's voyage in 1519?
The answers to those questions will not only be found in our post-COVID-19 future, they are already in the hands of everyone who dares to think.
The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.
《強國長征路：百國調研歸來看中華復興與世界未來》（王文 著）中共中央黨校出版社（請點擊購買）
《數字中國：區塊鏈、智能革命與國家治理的未來》（王文 劉玉書 著）中信出版社（請點擊購買）
疫情會開創一個新文明嗎？（中英雙語）
美國世紀，1941-2020（中英雙語）
“一帶一路”須聯防聯控，否則中國抗疫將沒完沒了
堅決回擊六類“甩鍋中國”的國際謬論
中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資董事長裘國根先生向母校捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。
作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4箇中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。
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