譯者 王為
文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者註釋或補充說明
US National Debt Spiked by $1.5 trillion in 6 Weeks, to $25 trillion. Fed Monetized 90%
by Wolf Richter
I’d never imagined I’d ever see this sort of spike, though in recent years I added an upward arrow with “Debt out the wazoo”to my charts, not realizing just how factually accurate this technical term would become.
我從未想過有朝一日會見到美國國債總量出現如此快速的增長，儘管在最近幾年裡我在上面這張美國國債總量走勢圖中加上了一個向上的箭頭，並加了一個“債務增長剎不住閘”的綠色標籤，但我並不清楚這個詞如何才能從一個專業術語變成現實。
The US gross national debt – the total of all Treasury securities outstanding – jumped by $1.05 trillion with a T in the four weeks since April 7 and by $1.54 trillion in the six weeks since March 23, to $25.06 trillion, the Treasury department reported today.
據美國財政部5月6日公佈的數據，美國聯邦政府的總量，即尚未到期的美國國債的餘額在4月7日以來的四個星期裡跳增了1.05萬億美元，在3月23日以來的六個星期裡跳增了1.54萬億美元，最新值為25.06萬億美元。
Those trillions are whizzing by so fast it’s hard to even seen them. WOOSH… What was that? Oh, just another trillion. The flat spots in the chart are the periods when the debt bounced into the debt ceiling. Yeah, those were the days!
這些債務增加的速度之快以至於很難讓人及時感知到，嗖地一下。。。咋回事？又漲了一萬億美元，下圖中的那些直線說明美國國債總量觸及到限額，你沒看錯，幾天之內美國國債就增加了這麼多！
I’ve been lamenting and lambasting the stupendous growth of the US national debt since 2011, the beginning of my illustrious career as a gnat in the big world of financial media. And through all these years, I’d never imagined that I’d ever see this sort of spike in the US debt, though in recent years I’ve been adding an upward arrow and the green label “Debt out the wazoo” to these charts, not realizing just how factually accurate this technical term would become.
2011年以來我一方面在痛惜另一方面又在譴責美國國債總量的快速增長，正是在這一年我這個滄海中之一粟開始有聲有色地走上了自己的財經媒體之路。這些年來，我從未想過有朝一日會見到美國國債總量出現如此快速的增長，儘管在最近幾年裡我在上面這張美國國債總量走勢圖中加上了一個向上的箭頭，並加了一個“債務增長剎不住閘”的綠色標籤，但我並不清楚這個詞如何才能從一個專業術語變成現實。
The US debt was even surging at an accelerating rate during the “Best Economy Ever,” when there should have been a surplus and a reduction in the debt, so that the government can go into debt during bad times.
美國債務總量甚至在“從未見過的最佳經濟增長時期”裡也呈加速增長態勢，經濟好的時候財政應該出現盈餘並且債務總量應該減少才對，這樣在經濟不好的時期政府就可以借債度日。
I wrote back then, for example on February 19, when the debt had spiked by $1.3 trillion over the past 12 months to $23.3 trillion: “But these are the good times. And we don’t even want to know what this will look like during the next economic downturn.”
比如，在2019年2月當美國國債總量在過去十二個月裡新增了1.3萬億美元達到23.3萬億美元以後，我曾寫過，“現在正是美國經濟形勢不錯的時期，我們甚至不想知道在未來的經濟下行期間美國的債務形勢會變成什麼樣。”
Whether we want to know it or not, we now know it and cannot un-know it.
不管我們當時是否想知道，現在我們已經知道了，而且不能假裝不知道
And we didn’t even have to sit on the edge of our collective chair for long for that next economic downturn to arrive. It’s more than just a downturn. It’s the big one. The nightmare has become a reality. And waking up or looking away no longer helps.
我們甚至不需要花上很長時間坐立不安地等待下一場經濟下滑的到來，眼前已經不是經濟下滑了，而是大衰退了。噩夢成了現實，等你醒來的時候環顧四周才發現誰也指望不上。
The government has now signed into law a series of stimulus packages totaling $2.8 trillion or thereabouts.
聯邦政府如今簽署法律，出臺了總額約為2.8萬億美元的一系列經濟刺激舉措。
Phase 1: $8 billion, enacted on March 6. To fight the spread of The Virus
第1階段：80億美元，3月6日開始實施，旨在抗擊新冠疫情的擴散。
Phase 2: $100 billion, enacted on March 18. Tax credits for employers offering paid sick leave, plus increases to unemployment benefits and food assistance.
第2階段：1000億美元，3月18日開始實施，為僱主企業提供稅收優惠以資助給病假期間的員工開工資，並增加失業救濟和食品補貼的金額。
Phase 3: $2.1 trillion, enacted on March 27. Largest stimulus package ever, dwarfing the 2009 stimulus package of a mere $800 billion. The CARES Act includes provisions to bail out the investors of Corporate America and financial markets more generally, directly and also indirectly via the Fed’s Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to which taxpayers provide the equity capital to take the first loss.
第3階段：2.1萬億美元，3月27日開始實施，為有史以來最大的經濟刺激舉措，遠超2009年時總額僅為8000億美元的紓困方案。這個名為CARES的法案包含一些條款，通過美聯儲設立的特殊目的實體直接或間接地為美國企業以及美國金融市場上的投資者提供更廣泛的紓困，美國納稅人為這些特殊目的實體提供了資本金並首當其衝承擔了風險(
為美聯儲設立的特殊目的實體第一批出資的是美國財政部，而美國財政部是負責收稅的，因此可以理解為特殊目的實體的資本金來自美國納稅人)。The package includes extra unemployment benefits, free money for taxpayers and retirees, funds for the healthcare system, some money for “small businesses” under the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) that quickly tended to flow to well-connected not-so-small businesses, etc. etc. This is a huge massive complex bill with lots of goodies in it.
這些紓困措施包括提供額外的失業補助，給納稅人和退休人士直接發錢，給醫療體系提供資助，並按照收入保障計劃的安排為小企業提供資金，這樣就可以確保資金能夠流入與小企業業務關係緊密的非小型企業手裡，這是一個夾帶了很多好處的超大型綜合經濟救助法案。
Phase 3.5 or 4: $484 billion, enacted on April 28. Refills the PPP and the Economic Injury Disaster Loans, plus sends money to health care providers, hospitals, and for coronavirus testing.
第3.5階段或稱第4階段：4840億美元，4月28日開始實施，為收入保障計劃和經濟救災貸款補充彈藥，此外給保健服務提供商、醫院和新冠病毒檢測等撥款。
Phases 5 – umpteen: to be enacted soon.
第5階段：救助無限額，即將實施。
So about $2.7 trillion for now. At first, there was a mad scramble of lobbying to get all the favorite provisions into the bills. Now a mad scramble has ensued to siphon out this money. Billionaires and millionaires will be printed, especially if they’rewell-connected.
因此到目前為止，紓困計劃的總規模約為2.7萬億美元。紓困計劃醞釀之初，各路遊說團體一哄而上，都想把對自己有利的條款塞進紓困法案裡。接下來，各路人馬都想把這些救濟資金踹進自己的腰包。億萬富翁和百萬富翁們將批量誕生出來，尤其是如果這幫人手眼通天的話。
And lobbyists are highly motivated to get even more stimulus packages through Congress. This is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity.
遊說人士強烈希望美國國會通過更多的經濟刺激法案，這可是一輩子都很難碰上一次的好機會。
And while these trillions sally forth into the wild yonder, tax revenues are collapsing. The difference has to be made up with borrowing. The Congressional Budget Office has jacked up its estimate for the fiscal 2020 deficit to $3.7trillion. There are only five months left in this fiscal year. So these trillions are going to have to be borrowed in a hurry.
雖然這幾萬億美元被政府瀟灑地拋了出去，但稅收卻遭遇了崩潰式下跌，收支之間的差額只能用增加借貸的辦法來解決。美國國會預算辦公室將2020財政年度的預算赤字估算值向上修正到了3.7萬億美元，本財年僅剩下五個月，因此美國政府得趕緊把這幾萬億美元的債給借了。
Fed steps up to the plate, monetizes 90% of the additional debt.
美聯儲閃亮登場，吃掉了9成新發行的美國國債
From March 11 through its balance sheet released last Thursday, the Fed added $1.39 trillion in Treasury securities to its assets. Over the same period, the Treasury Department added $1.54 trillion to the outstanding debt. In other words, the Fed has – indirectly, as is the iron rule in the US – monetized 90% of this additional debt. We’re living off printed money, pure and simple.
上週四公佈的數據顯示，3月11日至今美聯儲增持了1.39萬億美元的美國國債， 而美國財政部在此期間新發行了1.54萬億美元的國債。也就是說，美聯儲間接地貨幣化了這些新發的美國國債，在美國這可是一條顛撲不破的鐵律。美國現在純粹就是靠印鈔活著，就是這麼一回事。
But this was heavily frontloaded, with the Fed buying $1.1 trillion in Treasuries over the first 3.5 weeks. The Fed has since backed off. Last week, it bought only $62 billion. And it looks like the market will be tasked to digest more of this debt.
但由於在紓困計劃實施的前三週半買走了1.1萬億美元的美國國債，聯儲有點用力過猛，從那之後後勁有點跟不上了。上週，聯儲只買了620億美元的國債，現在看起來需要靠市場自己消化這些新發的國債了。
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