經濟學人精讀 | Break the glass(上) 新興市場一片混亂

經濟學人精讀 | Break the glass(上) 新興市場一片混亂

原文選自《The Economist》0411期 撰文:貓斯圖

中文導讀

自2020年新型冠狀病毒疫情爆發以來,全球貿易下滑、世界經濟受到嚴重衝擊,諸多國家不得不向IMF尋求幫助。面對數以億計的資產退出資本市場舞臺,IMF必須作出及時的反應以幫助貧窮國家渡過難關,因此不得不採取三管齊下的方法應對此次危機。

Leaders - The IMF (上).mp32:49

來自維他英語

第1段

Emerging markets are battling a financial crisis as well as a public-health emergency. Since late January foreign investors, desperate to shed risk, have been withdrawing their cash from poor countries. At the same time falling global trade, depressed commodities prices and vanishing tourists have put export revenues, and hence the supply of foreign currency, into free fall. This has left many countries struggling to pay for imports and to service their dollar-denominated debts, let alone fund emergency health or economic programmes. Over 90 countries have approached the IMF, the lender of last resort for governments, to ask for help.

譯文:新興市場正在應對金融危機和公共衛生緊急狀況。自1月底以來,渴望擺脫風險的外國投資者一直從貧窮國家提取現金。與此同時,全球貿易下滑、大宗商品價格下跌和遊客減少,導致出口收入以及外匯供應大幅下降。這使許多國家難以支付進口費用和償還以美元計價的債務,更不用說為緊急保健或經濟方案提供資金支持。有90多個國家向作為政府最後貸款人的國際貨幣基金組織尋求幫助。

詞彙解析

  • denominate vt. ①to express an amount of money using a particular unit 以(某種貨幣)為單位 dollar-denominated debts以美元計價的債務 ② ~ sb (as) sth ( formal ) to give sth a particular name or description 將…命名為;稱…為 例:These payments are denominated as ‘fees’ rather than ‘salary’. 付出的這幾筆款子稱為“費用”而不是“工資”
  • let alone:更不必說 to say nothing of not to mention--used especially to emphasize the improbability of a contrasting example.
  • lender of last resort:最後貸款人,即在出現危機或者流動資金短缺的情況時,負責應付資金需求的機構(通常是中央銀行)。而這裡lender of last resort 意為IMF作為國際最後貸款人,隨著經濟金融全球化程度的加深,國與國之間的資本與貨幣一體化,金融危機超越國別的限制在世界範圍內傳播。IMF作為危機的借款者,更像一個信用合作組織,通過發行基金份額建立資金的蓄水池,再向成員國貸款;作為危機的管理者,它可以組織和協調危機中的成員國,募集更多的資金。

第2段

The fund will need to respond on an unprecedented scale. The $96bn investors have already withdrawn from emerging-market stocks and bonds dwarfs past capital outflows, according to the Institute of International Finance, an industry group. So far this year the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the South African rand have lost nearly a quarter of their value against the dollar. Though few countries have sounded the alarm in public, the fund estimates that emerging markets will need at least $2.5trn over the course of the pandemic.

譯文:該基金組織需要對以前所未有的規模作出反應。據行業集團國際金融研究所的數據顯示,擁有960億資產的投資者已經退出新興股票和債券市場,相比之下這讓過去的資本外流相形見絀。到目前為止,今年巴西雷亞爾、墨西哥比索和南非蘭特對美元貶值了近四分之一。雖然很少有國家公開發出警報,但該基金估計,新興市場在這一大流行病期間至少需要2.5萬億美元。

詞彙解析

  • dwarf n. 侏儒,矮子;(傳說或神話裡的)小矮人;矮星adj. 矮小的;矮生的v. (使)變矮;使顯得矮小 這裡意為過去的資本外流與擁有960億資產的投資者近期退出資本市場比較相形見絀
  • over the course of 在······的過程中/隨著時間的流淌

第3段

Some of that help is coming from America’s Federal Reserve. It is running “swap lines” with a select few central banks, which have so far borrowed about $400bn while posting their own currencies as collateral. The Fed is also allowing most central banks to temporarily exchange any Treasuries that they hold for dollars. But among emerging-market central banks only Brazil, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea are included in the swap lines, and few poor countries have a ready supply of Treasuries. So most of the burden will fall on the IMF which, unlike the Fed, cannot create dollars at will. The fund says it has about $1trn on tap, about a fifth of which is already committed. Even this may not be enough for the job if large economies like Nigeria, South Africa or Turkey join the legions of small countries seeking help. Another problem is that a big chunk of the fund’s resources is borrowing from its members that must be reauthorised this year, creating uncertainty.

譯文:其中一些幫助來自美國聯邦儲備委員會。它正在與少數幾家央行進行“互換交易”,這些央行迄今已借了約4000億美元,同時將本國貨幣作為抵押品。美聯儲還允許大多數中央銀行暫時交換它們持有的美國國債。但縱觀這些新興市場中央銀行,只有巴西、墨西哥、新加坡和韓國被納入互換額度,很少有窮國有現成的國債供應。因此,大部分負擔將落在國際貨幣基金組織身上,而國際貨幣基金組織與美聯儲不同,不能隨意創造美元。該基金組織表示,目前約有1萬億美元,其中約五分之一已經承諾。如果像尼日利亞、南非或土耳其這樣的大經濟體加入小國軍團尋求幫助,即使這樣做也不足以勝任這項工作。另一個問題是,該基金組織中很大一部分資金借款於其成員國,今年必須取得重新授權,這就造成了不確定性。

詞彙解析

  • collateral n.( finance 財 ) property or sth valuable that you promise to give to sb if you cannot pay back money that you borrow 抵押物;擔保品 adj.( formal ) connected with sth else, but in addition to it and less important 附屬的;附加的;附帶的
  • Treasuries 國債、國庫券Treasuries that they hold for dollars 美國國債 也可以用US Treasuries表示 【近義詞】bond 債券 yuan-denominated bonds 人民幣債券
  • at will 隨意,任意 【近義詞】at one's option, at liberty
  • legion n.①軍團 the French Foreign Legion 法國外籍軍團 ②( formal ) a large number of people of one particular type 大量,大批(某類型的人)legions of photographers 眾多的攝影師 adj. [ not before noun ] ( formal ) very many 很多;極多 例:The medical uses of herbs are legion. 草本植物的醫藥效用數不勝數。
  • chunk n. ①a thick solid piece that has been cut or broken off sth 厚塊;厚片;大塊 例:a chunk of cheese/masonry 一塊厚厚的奶酪╱磚石 ②( informal ) a fairly large amount of sth 相當大的量 例:I've already written a fair chunk of the article. 我已寫出文章的大部分。

第4段

These funds must be secured. America, to its credit, has already approved its share, but the biggest, richest members need to provide still more. The IMF should then follow a three-pronged approach to fighting the crisis.

譯文:這些資金必須得到保障。值得稱道的是,美國已經批准了它的份額,但最大、最富有的成員還需要提供更多。然後,國際貨幣基金組織應該採取三管齊下的方法來應對危機。


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