譯者 王為
文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者註釋或補充說明
Equities: Comparing Russell 2000 Versus S&P 500®
By Erik Norland 芝加哥商品交易所執行董事和資深經濟學家
Since the Russell 2000 began tracking the performance of small-cap stocks in 1979, the index has broadly matched, if not slightly exceeded, the performance of the venerable S&P 500® index of large cap stocks (Figure 1).
跟蹤美國小盤股走勢的羅素2000指數自1979年推出以來，其回報率即使沒有小幅超過聲名赫赫的跟蹤美國大盤股走勢的標準普爾500指數，也是大體與之相等，見圖1。
While the two indexes’ overall performance has been similar and their correlation generally high (0.8 on average; ranging from 0.6 to 0.96 on a one-year rolling basis), they have diverged significantly at times. (Figure 2).
雖然這兩個指數的總體表現相近，兩者之間的相關度通常很高（平均為0.8，過去1年回報率之間的相關係數0.6-0.96之間波動），但在有的情況下兩者之間的走勢差異還是很明顯的，見圖2。
Figure 1: 38 Years of Small-Cap-Versus-Large-Cap Performance.
過去38年間，美國小盤股和大盤股的走勢對比
1979-1983: the Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500® by 80% during a period of extreme economic turbulence with double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates and back-to-back recessions in January-June 1980 and August 1981-December 1982. At the time, investors judged that smaller companies navigated the environment more nimbly than larger ones.
1979-1983年:在美國經濟遭遇了通脹率和利率均以兩位數增長以及在1980年1-6月和1981年8月-1982年12月兩次衰退的極端動盪期間，羅素2000指數的回報率比標準普爾500指數高了80%，當時的美國投資者認為小公司適應環境的能力比大公司強
1983-1990: during the long economic expansion in the 1980s, large caps rebounded, leaving small caps in the dust. During this period of increased economic certainty, the S&P 500® outperformed the Russell 2000 by 91%, more than recovering its 1979-83 period of underperformance.
1983-1990年:在經歷了1980年代的長期增長後，美國大盤股的股價開始反彈，只留下小盤股的股價在風中凌亂。在經濟走勢的確定性越來越高的這一時期，標準普爾500指數的回報率比羅素2000指數領先了91%，不僅收復了1979-1983年期間走勢弱於羅素2000指數的失地，而且實現了反超
1990-1994: during the 1990-91 recession and its immediate aftermath, small caps again outperformed the S&P 500® by nearly 50%.
1990-1994年：在1990-1991年的經濟衰退以及緊隨其後的期間裡，以羅素2000指數為代表的美國小盤股的回報率比標準普爾500指數高了近50%
1994-1999: during the strongest phase of the 1990s expansion, the S&P 500® large caps again outperformed the Russell 2000 small caps just as they had during the 1980s boom. This time the S&P 500® outperformed the Russell 2000 by 93% over five years.
1994-1999年:美國經濟在1990年代經歷了歷史上最快的增長，在這五年裡標準普爾500指數的漲幅再次超出羅素2000指數，就像1980年代美國經濟快速增長期間一樣，領先幅度為93%
1999-2014: in a new era of turbulence (tech wreck, 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq wars, subprime bubble, economic meltdown and quantitative easing, small caps swiftly outperformed large caps once again, with the Russell 2000 drubbing the S&P 500 by 114%.
1999-2014年：美國經濟經歷了一系列新的動盪，包括高科技股泡沫，911事件，阿富汗戰爭和伊拉克戰爭，次貸危機，經濟大衰退和量化寬鬆等，美國小盤股在此期間再一次跑贏大盤股，羅素2000指數的漲幅比標準普爾500指數高114%
Since 2014: large cap stocks generally outperformed during the later stages of the 2010s expansion, much as they had during the later stages of expansion during the 1980s and 1990s and even as they did during the final stages of the 2003-2007 period of growth. Much of the recent outperformance of large caps has to do with their larger weighting to technology stocks and the spectacular performance of a handful of the very largest tech firms. The Covid-19 pandemic hit small caps especially hard. Few among them are online delivery services or other entities that have proven to be relatively insulated from the crisis. Small caps stocks have shown a much stronger reaction to news regarding lockdowns or the possible lifting of lockdowns that have large caps. Since early 2014, the S&P 500 has outperformed Russell 2000 by 56% as of mid-April 2020.
2014年以來：在2010年代美國經濟擴張的後期，大盤股總體上是跑贏了小盤股，與1980和1990年代美國經濟擴張週期的後期甚至是2003-2007年期間美國經濟增長期間的後期情況一樣。最近幾年美國大盤股的表現好於小盤股的原因很大一程度上是由於大盤股指數中高科技股的權重很高以及為數不多的幾隻超大型高科技股令人歎為觀止的上漲。新冠疫情對小盤股的殺傷尤為嚴重，在美國的小盤股中幾乎沒有在線送貨概念股或其他被證明受疫情影響不大的股票，小盤股對禁足令可能會被取消的消息所做出的反應比大盤股更激烈。自2014年初至2020年4月中旬，標準普爾500指數的漲幅比羅素2000指數領先了56%。
Figure 2: Small-Cap Outperformance and Underperformance Since 1979.
1979年以來美國小盤股跑贏及跑輸大盤股的情況
Despite the evolution in the ratio between small and large cap stocks over time over time, the daily correlation of the indices remains extremely high, especially during periods of stress (Figure 3). The fact of a high correlation between small caps and large caps is probably a little frustrating to long-only investment managers as it limits diversification benefits. By contrast, for long/short managers, the strong correlation opens up possibilities to profit from the strong trends in the relative performance of the two indexes – and significant risks, as well, if they are caught on the wrong side of the trade.
儘管美國小盤股與大盤股之間的漲跌幅比率隨著時間的變化有上有下，但標準普爾500指數和羅素2000指數之間日波幅的相關度仍處於很高的水平，尤其是在市場動盪期間，見圖3。美國小盤股與大盤股的波幅之間相關度很高的現象有可能會令單邊做多的投資經理感到有點沮喪，因為這樣的話多元化投資的好處就會變得很有限。與此相反的是，對於執行多空對沖策略的投資經理來說，兩類指數的回報表現之間具有很強的相關性意味著可以利用指數走勢的強趨同性特點獲利，同樣，如果做反了方向也會帶來巨大的風險。
Figure 3: Highly-Positive and Reasonably Stable Historical Correlations.
標準普爾500指數和羅素2000指數的回報率之間長期具有很強且相當穩定的正相關關係
Since 2000, realized volatility has been higher for small cap stocks than it has been for large cap stocks, although this was not the case prior to the year 2000 (Figure 4).
2000年以來，美國小盤股的實際波動率比大盤股高，儘管2000年以前的情況並非如此，見圖4。
Figure 4: Smalls Caps Have Been Riskier than Large Caps Since 2000 (but not Pre-2000).
2000年以來美國小盤股的風險高於大盤股，與2000年以前的情況不同
The key question for small cap stocks is, relative to large caps, will they more successfully adapt to rapid changes in economic conditions in 2020s? During past periods of economic distress (1979-82, the early 1990s, the early 2000s and the global financial crisis and immediate aftermath), small caps outperformed. This time, will they be able to overcome or adapt to the competitive advantages of the largest online delivery, software, social networking and technology equipment makers? The answer to these questions may depend on the course of the pandemic and what the world looks like when the pandemic eventually subsides.
關鍵問題在於：在適應2020年以來美國經濟的突發變化方面，美國小盤股是否做得比大盤股更好？在以往的美國經濟動盪期間，如1979-1982年期間，1990年代初期，2000年代初期，2008年金融危機以及之後的一段時期，美國小盤股的表現優於大盤股。這一次，小盤股能否戰勝或適應超大型線上購物，軟件，社交媒體和高科技設備製造行業上市公司所具有的競爭優勢？要想回答這些問題需要看疫情的演變狀況以及當疫情最終消停下來後整個世界會變成什麼樣。
Bottom line:
要點：
Although the Russell 2000 and S&P 500® usually exhibit a high correlation, they can have periods of significant outperformance/underperformance relative to one another.
儘管標準普爾500指數和羅素2000指數的回報率之間通常相關度很高，但在某些時期這兩個指數的走勢之間會有明顯的強弱互現
Small caps have typically outperformed large caps during period of economic turbulence (1979-83, 1990-94 and 1999-2014).
在美國經濟動盪期間，如1979-83，1990-94，1999-2014期間，美國小盤股的表現一般會勝過大盤股
Large caps often outperform in the later stages of bull markets and during the strong phases of economic expansion.
在經濟強勢增長期間以及股票市場牛市的後期，美國大盤股通常會成為贏家
Since 2014, the S&P 500® has been rebounding versus Russell 2000.
2014年以來，標準普爾500指數的走勢再次強於羅素2000指數
Small cap stocks have been especially hard-hit during the pandemic.
新冠疫情對美國小盤股的打擊尤其嚴重
Russell 2000 has a lower weighting to technology stocks than does the S&P 500.
與標準普爾500指數相比，羅素2000指數的構成中高科技股的佔比偏低
