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保銀周評
2020.04.06-04.12
01
市場行情
上證指數：收於2796.63點，整週上漲1.18%
深圳成指：收於10298.41點，整週上漲1.86%
滬深300: 收於3769.18點，整週上漲1.51%
創業板指：收於1949.88點，整週上漲2.27%
恆生指數：收於24300.33點，整週上漲4.58%
*數據來源：wind（2020.04.06-04.12）
<code>上週市場上行後震盪，其中中證500周漲1.99%，滬深300周漲1.51%；行業方面，休閒服務，國防軍工和建築材料漲幅最大，分別為5.73%，4.70%和4.36%，而電子，紡織服裝和採掘則漲幅落後，分別收-1.22%，-0.70%和0.28%；上週北向資金淨流入合計92.21億元，淨流入集中在食品飲料板塊，而淨流出則集中在電子板塊。/<code>
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至臻致遠，與時間為伴
02
行業點評
宏觀
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中國的社融數據大幅超預期，歐美投資者大概會解讀為刺激政策，再加上歐洲刺激政策的消息，利好國際股市。中國通脹數據下行，尤其是非食品CPI創多年新低，降息的可能性上升。
近日，金融委針對資本市場提到要“提升市場活躍度”，業內有討論會不會推出T+0改革。有接近監管人士表示，T+0制度仍需時間孕育。預計需在機構投資者佔比進一步提升至較高比例時，才會考慮T0制度的改革。
上週市場逐步企穩，上證綜指上漲1.18%，上週僅有四個交易日，清明假期和復活節假期壓縮了外資流動，深市流入43.56億，滬市流入48.65億。
Risk sentiment continues to improve as virus situations are beginning to peak in a number of countries, while central banks and governments continue to stimulate with massive monetary and fiscal packages. USD LIBOR dropped noticeably on Thursday to 1.21888 (-9bps), ending the week 17bps lower.
After hesitating in the previous week, gold prices soared in the last few days, with spot trading as high as $ 1690.23. Policymakers keep pumping money into the system, gold will be the most benefited
S&P500 rallied 10.4% post its best weekly gain in 45 years. VIX reset 5 points lower closing at 42. Given the elevated realized volatility and continued uncertainty about the future, the rate at which VIX is falling has slowed over the past week. At current spot level dealers are estimated to be slightly long gamma in S&P500, which is $0.5bn gamma / 1% move in SPX less long than historical averages (38th percentile since 2012).
S&P500 continued its recent momentum rallied 1.5% on Thursday, up 12% for the week and 25% from its march 23rd close. Fed announced it would purchase certain high yield bonds, the HY bond ETFs HYG/JNK rallied 6.5%+ on thursday. This looks like overreaction to the news.、
The OPEC+ partners has proposed a 10mil bpd oil output cut (or ~12% of worldwide production) for 2 months. This event came with a twist, that Mexico was originally committing only 100k bpd cut vs. 400k mandated; however that amount will be replenished by US therefore clearing the way for this deal, still pending finalisation. Although 10mil bpd doesn’t quite alleviate the demand problem in recent months, it’s a positive sign for international communities to step in to calm the waters. Once demand steps up post coronavirus, we should see a stabilised oil price.
消費
在疫情影響下，廣告市場供需雙降，致2月全媒體廣告刊例花費同比下降28.6%，降幅較1月擴大 23.0ppt，是2017年以來的最大降幅。
近日天貓正式發佈“雙百億品牌超級新客提升計劃”。根由於疫情，商家及電商平臺都受到比較嚴重的影響；疫情過後，預計商家和電商平臺將會加大促銷及優惠力度來拉動增長。
近期絕大部分連鎖餐飲企業的堂食恢復營業，其中星巴克、百勝、海底撈和九毛九等上市公司均提到生意有逐步恢復趨勢，但客流仍普遍受壓，餐廳經營區域和營業時長也受到管制。消費習慣方面，快餐恢復快於火鍋和正餐，人數較多的聚餐減少，家庭出外就餐減少影響到週末生意。餐飲行業恢復速度較市場預期緩慢，預計完全恢復要延後至三季度。
據英國《每日郵報》4月10日報道，數以百億的沙漠蝗蟲正在東非的發源地迅速成熟，非洲蝗災捲土重來，而且規模是今年幾個月前的20倍。若持續發酵，糧食、農藥類可以關注。
一和週四衝擊兩波，週二和週五顯著回落，但整體脈衝上行，從側面印證可能是real money 申購衝擊帶來的價值股回暖。
During the Qing Ming long weekend, the number of domestic tourist number reached 43m (-61% yoy) and domestic tourism revenue amounted to Rmb8.26bn (-81% yoy), according to China Tourism Academy. In selected regions, tourist number has recovered to over 50% of same period last year. Short-haul travel in nearby cities is the mainstream and ~50% of hotel orders are 4-star and 5-star hotels, according to the trip.com. The upcoming Labor Day Holiday will be the key to watch for both leisure travel and domestic consumption especially this year has 5-day holidays from 1-5 May (vs. 4 days in 2019).
There were relatively large short covers on Monday to Wednesday in Japan marekt which arrived roughly two weeks after overseas markets. On the real business front, many of the retail businesses with Feb year-end started to report their results and guidance which look to be bad but still optimistic. Emergency declarations/stay-at-home requests from the government is working only in the CBD but not local commercial districts. Head of the public health testing centre in Saitama (next to Tokyo) was on TV news and stated that he has been suppressing test requests from hospitals because he didn't want to see the infected number to go up and this might be true for Tokyo too where daily test cases has been around 300 to 450+ despite the population. Y108trn economic stimulus and subsidies now appear to be pretty much fake. Despite the ciriticism, the central government is asking local government not to implement stringent measures to close stores because the central govt seems to worry that shops and businesses might come back to them to ask for compensations. It is an interesting start of the state of emergency.
TMT
印度經濟監測中心的數據顯示，過去兩週因印度封城造成至少有5000萬人失業，印度的城市失業率從兩週前的8.66%上升到目前的30.93%。據VIVO相關專家稱，VIVO印度手機環比下降達80%，南亞其他國家如孟加拉國基本關閉手機市場，東南亞lazada停止部分國家(菲律賓)的訂單處理和物流服務。若智能手機最主要增量市場南亞、東南亞的疫情持續，考慮當地消費者本身儲蓄較低，收入下降會明顯降低其購買手機的意願和能力，今年全球中低端智能手機的銷售壓力將較大。
新能源汽車產業鏈的草根調研顯示，4月份的生產環比3月份可能進一步下跌，因去年的遺留訂單以及適當補庫存的需要，3月份的生產情況總體好於預期，但4月份企業的新訂單明顯不足，電動汽車產品陸續開始降價，甚至開始出現零首付（如威馬的直購模式、北汽的使用權交易辦法等），如果情況在5月份沒有好轉，行業可能將面臨一場裁員潮或關門潮。
Recent supply chain check suggests many component makers are not yet seeing any change of orders. Demand for components remain strong. While component suppliers are aware of the virus situations and many countries are still in the lockdown, they suspect smartphone makers are more worry about supply chain disruptions than actual demand, so they rather stock up on components. It seems there could potentially be a mismatch between supply and demand. In the next 2-3 months, if the demand for smartphones do not have a V shape recovery, supply chain could see a sharp order cuts.
醫藥
北京市宣佈4月12日起進京人員入駐酒店應持有7日內經當地核酸檢測呈陰性的證明；開封市政府公告擴大檢測範圍，對特定人群全部免費開展新冠病毒檢測，其中包括無症狀感染者的密切接觸者、無症狀感染者解除隔離後與其共同生活的人員。後疫情時期，新冠檢測在特定人群中仍然會持續開展，從感染人群擴展到健康高危人群，相關的膠體金&核酸試劑產品將不斷受益。
