（阿浦研究院｜亞澳巴菲特研習社）
Part 4 Insurance
Part 4 - Day 10
字數：421字
Day 10思考：
1.為什麼說很難實現浮動金的進一步增長？
2.美妙的浮動金帶來的激烈競爭怎樣影響著財險行業？
金融詞彙解析：
1. P/C：全稱Property/casualty insurance，譯為財產/意外保險。
2. premiums -保費: 保費也稱保險費，是投保人為取得保險保障，按保險合同約定向保險人支付的費用。保險費多少是根據保險金額、保險費率、保險期限、保險人的年齡職業等因素計算決定的。Premium除了保費還有溢價的含義。
3. reinsurance -再保險：亦稱“分保”。保險人在原保險合同的基礎上，通過簽訂分保合同，將其所承保的部分風險和責任向其他保險人進行保險的行為。再保險的基礎是原保險，再保險的產生，正是基於原保險人經營中分散風險的需要。
生詞積累：
1. fairly adv.相當地；公平地；簡直
2. downward adj.向下的，下降的
3. eventual adj.最終的；有條件的
4. vigorous adj.充滿活力的；精力充沛的
正文：
Our investment in the insurance companies reflects a first major step in our efforts to achieve a more diversified base of earning power.”— 1967 Annual Report
“對保險行業的投資是實現多元化利潤來源的重要一步。”
―――1967年年報
Let’s look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation and the engine that has consistently propelled our expansion since that 1967 report was published.
讓我們先來看保險業務。它是伯克希爾的核心經營業務部門，自1967年年報發表以來，作為動力引擎，一直推動我們前進和擴張。
Property-casualty (“P/C”) insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collect- now, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown, as the following table shows:
財產意外險是先收取保險費後支付索賠金的保險業務。在一些極端的情況下，例如起因於某些工人的意外事故賠償，索賠金支付可能要延展數十年。這種先收後支的模式使我們長期持有大量的資金――我們稱之為“浮存金”――它們最終是要支付給別人的。在持有期間，我們可以將浮存金用於伯克希爾的投資。儘管個別保單和索賠會使資金有進有出，但我們持有的浮動金和保費總額保持相對穩水平。因此，隨著我們業務規模的增長，浮存金規模也不斷增長。增長情況，詳見下表：
Further gains in float will be tough to achieve. On the plus side, GEICO’s float will almost certainly grow. In National Indemnity’s reinsurance division, however, we have a number of run-off contracts whose float drifts downward. If we do experience a decline in float at some future time, it will be very gradual – at the outside no more than 3% in any year. The nature of our insurance contracts is such that we can never be subject to immediate demands for sums that are large compared to our cash resources. (In this respect, property-casualty insurance differs in an important way from certain forms of life insurance.)
獲取更多的浮動金越發困難。但值得高興的是，GEICO的浮存金肯定還會增加。而在國民保險的再保險業務部門，因持有大量臨期合約，浮存金會下降。即便未來我們的浮存金出現下降趨勢，其過程也十分平緩――一年最多不會超過3%。與現有的現金流規模相比，保單性質保證我們不會遭受任何短期流動性壓力。（在這方面，產險與某些壽險業務有很大區別。）
If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it.
如果保費收入超過總支出和最終賠付額，我們就能在利用浮動金獲得投資收益外，還能獲取承保利潤。一旦獲得了這部分利潤，就意味著我們可以享用免費資金了――更妙的是，可以持有資金而獲利。
Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous in most years that it causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. For example, State Farm, by far the country’s largest insurer and a well-managed company besides, incurred an underwriting loss in nine of the twelve years ending in 2012 (the latest year for which their financials are available, as I write this). Competitive dynamics almost guarantee that the insurance industry – despite the float income all companies enjoy – will continue its dismal record of earning subnormal returns as compared to other businesses.
不幸的是，實現這一美好的結果的願望導致了激烈的競爭，競爭太過慘烈以致財產保險行業在大多數年份裡，整體都在嚴重的承保虧損中經營。實際上，這筆承保虧損就是整個行業為了獲取浮存金而支付的成本。例如，國營農場保險公司，迄今為止國內最大的、管理優良的保險公司，在截至2012年的12年裡有9年都遭受承保虧損（我寫本報告時，所獲取的最新一年的財務數據）。儘管所有公司都享有浮動金收益，但與其他業務相比，競爭態勢幾乎可以保證保險業仍將繼續虧錢。
圖表概要:
1.浮存金規模，在年份增長時，隨著業務規模的增長也不斷地增加。
2.在1970至2010年間，浮存金金額在每十年間的增長增幅是不斷加大的。
3.截止2013年，這筆浮存金已經達到772.4億。
Day 10思考答案：
1. 因為所持有的大量合約的臨期，使得其浮存金則會下降。
2. 激烈的競爭導致財產意外保險行業整體在大多數年份裡都只能在保險業務虧損的情況下經營。這實際上是該行業為了獲取浮存金而付出的代價。
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