原油價格歷史性暴跌到負值,咱們加油免費了?

(原文翻譯提供——尚恩教育)

原油暴跌會影響我們的生活嘛? 由於全球石油需求萎靡、庫存高企下儲油能力不足及市場投機行為等多重原因,紐約原油期貨價格20日出現歷史性暴跌,導致市場恐慌情緒。那麼,我們每天都要開的車,要加的油,是不是可以不用付錢了呢?我們來看外國媒體CNN是怎麼回答的。

原油價格歷史性暴跌到負值,咱們加油免費了?

Even though a historic decline for oil sent prices negative on Monday, don't expect to get paid to fill up your gas tank any time soon.

儘管上油價在週一出現了歷史性的下跌,導致油價達到負值,但是也不要指望把你的油箱加滿就能很快得到補償。

There were some unique conditions driving oil prices below $0 for the first time ever. And more importantly, crude oil prices only have an indirect impact on the retail price for a gallon of gasoline.

有一些特別的條件使得油價第一次跌破每桶0美元。更重要的是,原油價格僅僅對每加侖汽油的零售價格有間接的影響。

The huge drop in US gasoline consumption in recent weeks due to stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 outbreak has pushed down both oil and gasoline prices, since there is excess supply of both. And the space needed to store that excess supply is running short, which is part of what led to the negative oil price on Monday.

在新冠病毒爆發期間,大家都被要求待在家,這導致美國近幾周汽油消費大幅下降,打擊了石油和汽油價格,兩者都供過於求。而儲存這些過剩石油所需的地方越來越少,這就是導致週一油價跌破零的部分原因。

原油價格歷史性暴跌到負值,咱們加油免費了?

"With the expiration of the futures, and program trading and the like, prices can run amok," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service. "Today that ecosystem ran amok."

石油價格信息服務中心的首席石油分析師湯姆·克洛薩說:“隨著期貨和程序交易等的到期,油價可能會失控。”“今天,這個行業的生態系統亂了套。”

Crude is not the best predictor of retail gasoline price. Instead, wholesale gasoline prices that determine what gas stations will pay for gasoline. And gasoline futures did not have the same wild swing Monday, closing down only a few cents at about 67 cents a gallon. That's actually close to twice the price they were trading at just last week.

原油不是汽油零售價格的最佳預測指標。相反的,汽油批發價格(決定加油站為汽油支付多少錢的價格)才是最佳指標。汽油期貨週一沒有出現同樣劇烈的波動,收盤價格每加侖67美分左右,僅下跌幾美分。實際上,接近他們上週交易價格的兩倍。

原油價格歷史性暴跌到負值,咱們加油免費了?

And even wholesale gasoline futures don't fully determine the price that a gas station will pay for their product. Most have contracts that determine the price, albeit with future prices factored into that.

即使是批發汽油期貨也不能完全決定加油站的進油價。大部分公司的合同決定了這個價格,儘管合同一般會考慮期貨的價格。

Once you've factored in the cost of wholesale gasoline, there are all the other costs that go into the price you pay at the pump.

一旦你考慮了汽油批發的成本,仍然有其他的費用當你在加油站付錢的時候需要考慮。

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2019, when the full-year average stood at $2.60 a gallon, the average transportation and marketing cost was about 39 cents per gallon of gas. Refining costs and profits added another 34 cents on average.

美國能源情報署(US Energy Information Administration)估計,在2019年全年平均油價為每加侖2.60美元時,平均運輸和營銷成本約為每加侖39美分。煉油成本和利潤平均再增加34美分。

原油價格歷史性暴跌到負值,咱們加油免費了?

With the volume of gasoline pumped falling by a half or more, many station owners are increasing the profit margin they charge on each gallon by a few cents to make up for the sharp drop in demand.

隨著加油的量下降了一半甚至更多,許多加油站老闆將每加侖汽油的價格提高了幾美分來保持利潤以彌補需求的大幅下降。

So unfortunately, even though you could buy a whole barrel of crude oil for nothing on Monday, a single gallon of gas will still cost you something.

所以不幸的是,即使你可以在週一不用出錢就可以買到一桶原油,但是加一加侖的汽油仍要你付錢的。


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