從多邊和雙邊的視角看中美貿易 朱 民 繆延亮
中美經濟摩擦進入新階段：矛盾焦點從貿易失衡轉向技術轉移 關志雄
信息技術發展趨勢與半導體產業的增長點 馮昭奎
關於中國風電和光伏發電補貼缺口和大比例棄電問題的研究
北京大學國家發展研究院能源安全與國家發展研究中心、
中國人民大學經濟學院能源經濟系聯合課題組
“三大變革”引領世界經濟新週期之變 盛 壘 權 衡
中國-東盟自由貿易區的經濟影響和減貧效應 餘淼傑 高愷琳
從“貨幣三元悖論”到“金融三元悖論”—— 國際資本流動研究的新思路
範小云 劉糧 陳雷
新時代中國的對外貿易發展：機遇與挑戰
—— 中國世界經濟學會國際貿易論壇（2018）學術研討會觀點綜述
邱 斌 張 亮 劉修巖 陳 健
智庫觀察
歷史瞬間和特徵化事實 —— 中國特色城市化道路及其新內涵蔡昉
文章選取最具有代表性的三個歷史瞬間（事件），分別從勞動力從低生產率農業及農村產業中“退出”（exit），在農業和非農產業之間、城鄉之間、地域之間的“流動”（mobility），以及在居住、就業、社會身份等方面“進入”（entry）城市及其部門和社會三個角度，敘述了同時作為改革過程和發展過程的中國特色城市化。文章指出，中國以城市化為代表的改革和發展經驗，可以回答下列問題並且解決一般的發展問題：第一，通過改革解決生產要素積累的激勵問題和生產要素重新配置機制問題，把必要條件轉化為實際經濟增長；第二，立足於勞動力重新配置從而促進更加充分就業，把改革、開放、發展和分享融為一體，由此獲得全社會對改革的共識，使之得以持續推進；第三，隨著發展階段變化，不斷調整改革的重點，以保持和挖掘經濟增長的必要條件。
關鍵詞：中國特色城市化 生產要素積累 生產要素重新配置 經濟增長
Urbanizationwith Chinese Characteristics and Its New Connotation
CaiFang
This article selects three typical historical moments (developments) to analyze the country's urbanization with Chinese characteristics, which can be defined both as a process of reform and a process of development, from three perspectives: labor force exiting from inefficient agricultural and rural sector, mobility oflabor force between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, between urbanand rural areas, and between different regions, and entry of labor force intocities and urban sectors in terms of residence, employment and social statustransformation. The article points out that China's reform and development experiences from its urbanization process can serve as solutions to the following tasks: first, it is provision of incentives for accumulation of production factors and mechanisms for re-distribution of production factors throughre forms to generate real economic growth; second, it is creation of more jobs to promote full employment through re-distribution of labor force so that reform, opening-up, development and sharing can be combined to increase social consensus on reform to ensure the sustainable implementation of reformmeasures; third, it is adjustment of reform priorities based on changing development phases to maintain and create necessary driving forces for economic growth.
從多邊和雙邊的視角看中美貿易
朱 民 繆延亮
一國總體貿易赤字是其國內經濟結構和經濟政策失衡的結果。美國長期存在鉅額貿易赤字的起因是美國公共和私人部門憑藉美元的霸主地位長期消費過度、儲蓄不足。中國聚焦國內經濟結構轉型，通過內部結構調整實現了外部再平衡，為從根本上解決貿易失衡提供了範本。解決貿易爭端，需要雙方特別是美方正視其國內經濟的結構性矛盾。不論是單邊的貿易保護主義還是在雙邊赤字上做文章，都不會解決反而會加劇美國經濟的失衡。面對貿易戰的挑釁，中國需要堅持正義立場，立足長遠，聚焦自身改革。
關鍵詞：貿易戰 經濟政策 再平衡 中美貿易
Sino-US Trade: Multilateral and Bilateral Perspectives
Zhu Minand Miao Yanliang
The colossal trade deficits of the United States are a direct consequence of its long-standing domestic structural and policy imbalances supported by the US dollar’s exorbitant privilege as the dominant international reserve currency. China, on the contrary, has focused on transforming its domestic economy to achieve external rebalancing through internal restructuring, which provides an exemplary case for solving the problem of trade imbalance. It requires both sides, especially the US, to face up to the domestic structural issues of the US to resolve their trade disputes; a trade war will only exacerbate the US economic imbalance. China should adhere to its righteous position, focus on its long-term interests, and accelerate its domestic reforms.
中美經濟摩擦進入新階段：矛盾焦點從貿易失衡轉向技術轉移
關志雄
從2018年3月特朗普政府依據《1974年貿易法》“301條款”決定發動對華制裁開始，中美經濟摩擦升級，對立焦點正從貿易失衡轉向技術轉移。美國批評中國政府為了取得技術，對投資中國某些行業的美國企業實施出資限制政策，並且對收購海外先進技術企業的中國企業提供各種支持。美國政府不僅要求中國改變這些政策，還對外資收購美國企業的項目加強了國家安全層面的審查。在從美國引進高端技術日益困難的情況下，中國在加強自主研發的同時，還正通過加快對外開放，提升自身作為投資對象國的魅力。
關鍵詞：貿易摩擦 301條款 美國外資投資委員會 外商投資風險評估現代化法案
FromTrade Imbalance to Technology Transfer — New Stage of China-US
Economic Frictions
C. H.Kwan
Economic frictions between China and the United States have heightened following theTrump administration's invocation of Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act andannouncement of retaliatory actions against China in March 2018, with the majorconcern shifting from trade imbalance to technology transfer. The United Stateshas criticized the Chinese government of imposing ownership limits on US companies investing in China while at the same time supporting Chinese companies' M&A activities that aim to acquire technology from overseas. The US government has asked China to change these policies on the one hand, andtighten review of foreign acquisition of US companies based on national security considerations on the other hand. As it has become more and more difficult for China to acquire the most advanced technology from the United States, it has made more efforts to indigenous R&D, while at the same time sped up opening its economy to the world to enhance its attractiveness as aninvestment destination.
信息技術發展趨勢與半導體產業的增長點 馮昭奎
在當今以信息技術為核心的新一輪科技革命中，信息技術的核心地位進一步提升；信息技術的內涵進一步豐富（人工智能、大數據、雲計算等）；信息技術本身的基礎——半導體芯片技術的重要性進一步凸顯。5G時代將在2020年代前半期到來，人工智能在激烈的市場競爭中加快走向實用化和商業化，物聯網（IoT）將成為人們工作和生活的一部分。智能手機及其他移動通信設備，連接家庭、智能城市、個人可穿戴設備的物聯網，消費類電子產品，產業物聯網（IIoT），汽車自動化，機器人/無人機，包括生物識別技術在內的安全應用領域，人工智能/認知/深度學習將成為信息技術發展的最重要的應用領域。而新科技成果的不斷擴大應用，將有力地推動半導體及相關電子器件產業的發展與增長：5G手機芯片、汽車自動化芯片、物聯網相關芯片、高速高效化合物半導體器件、半導體傳感器等將成為今後數年半導體產業的新增長點。
關鍵詞： 信息技術 5G 人工智能 物聯網 集成電路芯片 半導體產業
Information Technology Development and Growth of the Semiconductor Industry
Feng Zhaokui
The core position of information technology in the new round of scientific and technological revolution has been further strengthened and the contents of information technology have been further enriched (artificial intelligence, bigdata, cloud computing, etc.); as the foundation of information technology, these miconductor chip technology has become increasingly important. With the expected advent of the 5G era in the first half of the 2020s, application and commercialization of artificial intelligence will accelerate amid fierce market competition, and the internet of things (IoT) will become an indispensible part of people's daily life. Smart phones and other mobile communication devices, internet of things that connect homes, smart cities and personal wearable devices, consumer electronics, industrial internet of things (IIoT), automotive automation, robots and drones, security applications including biometrics, artificial intelligence, cognition and deep learning will become the most important areas of application of information technology. The expanded application of new technological achievements will effectively promote the development and expansion of semiconductor and related electronic device industries; as a result, 5G mobile phone chips, automotive automation chips, IoT-related chips, high-speed and high-efficiency compound semiconductor devices, and semiconductor sensors will become new growth points of these miconductor industry.
關於中國風電和光伏發電補貼缺口和大比例棄電問題的研究
中國當下可再生能源發展面臨補貼資金缺口急劇膨脹以及“棄風棄光”居高不下的雙重挑戰。本研究在實地調研基礎上，討論分析了現有固定上網電價制度如何在制度層面上形成“地方請客、中央埋單”的資源配置邏輯，並與僵化的電力市場體制產生種種摩擦和矛盾，進而形成上述發展困局的。在進一步分析總結當前經濟新形勢和可再生能源發展國際經驗的基礎上，本文提出解決問題的思路，並立足還原風電和光伏發電的商品和環境屬性，對如何調整和過渡當前的可再生能源補貼政策提出相應政策建議。
關鍵詞：可再生能源 風電 光伏發電 補貼政策 可再生能源棄電 電力市場
Subsidy Crisis and Large-Scale Curtailment of Wind and Solar Power in
China
United Research Group of China Center for Energy and Development at
the National School of Development, Peking University,
and Department of Energy Economics at the School of Economics,
Renmin University of China
The renewable energy development in China is facing the challenges of subsidycrisis and large-scale curtailment of wind and solar power. Based on field research, this article analyzes how the fixed feed-in tariff subsidy policy hasled to the current scenario of “local governments treat and central governmentpays” in terms of resource allocation, and how it has conflicted with the rigid power production, transmission and trading system. Based on analysis of China's economic development and lessons of renewable development in other countries, the article provides suggestions regarding how to solve those problems andadjust the renewable energy subsidy policies.
“三大變革”引領世界經濟新週期之變 盛 壘 權 衡
走過十年“新平庸”的世界經濟似乎已逐漸擺脫危機陰霾，從危機以來的持續衰退開始走向更積極的復甦增長。但從長週期視角來看，目前世界經濟總體仍處於上一輪發展週期的衰退期，全球經濟持續行進在中低速增長軌道的“結構性低迷期”。走出“結構性低迷”的出路，依賴於世界經濟邁向新的發展長週期。著眼於21世紀世界經濟的長期發展，“三大變革”將引領世界經濟走向發展新週期：一是新科技革命重塑世界經濟增長新動力，二是“一帶一路”國際合作重構全球化發展新格局，三是全球治理體系變革重建世界經濟發展新規則。值得一提的是，在世界經濟週期性轉換過程中，中國新時代將帶給世界新機遇，既有助於促進全球經濟的有效復甦和增長，也有助於推動世界經濟邁向新一輪長週期的孕育和增長新階段。
關鍵詞：新科技革命 一帶一路 全球治理 世界經濟新週期
New Cycle of the World Economy and the Changing Dynamics
Sheng Lei and Quan Heng
After ten years of “new mediocre”, the world economy seems to be shaking off the impact of the global financial crisis and starts to show more positive signs of recovery. However, from the perspective of long-term cycle, the world economy remains in the phase of recession as part of the old cycle, which means it isin a situation of “structural downturn” marked by low- and medium-rate growth.The way out of “structural downturn” lies in the world economy stepping onto a new track of long-term growth cycle, which will feature new dynamics, newstructure, new rule and new governance system. The following developments will help the world economy achieve that transition. First, it is the new scienceand technology revolution, which will unleash new growth impetus of the world economy; second, it is the Belt and Road Initiative, which will reshape the globalization landscape; last but not least, it is reform of the global governance system, which is rebuilding the rules for world economic development. As it enters a new era, China will contribute to the transitionand recovery of the world economy and push it to enter the new long-term growth cycle.
中國—東盟自由貿易區的經濟影響和減貧效應 餘淼傑 高愷琳
中國—東盟自由貿易區是世界上涉及人口最多的自貿區，也是全球GDP總量第三大的經濟合作區。自貿區成員國大多為發展中國家，面臨著發展經濟、消除貧困的共同挑戰。中國—東盟自貿區的建立不僅帶來了巨大的經濟影響，還具有至關重要的減貧效應。自2002年初步簽訂協議以來，中國—東盟自由貿易區在貿易、投資、基礎建設等領域達成了多項經濟合作協議，推進了貿易與投資自由化，促進了中國與東盟的經濟增長，推動了世界減貧事業發展。本文回顧了中國—東盟自貿區的建立歷程，梳理了自貿區在貿易與投資領域的促進措施以及雙方的基礎設施建設合作，並在此基礎上分析了中國與東盟各國在貿易與投資方面的發展現狀與特徵，以及其經濟影響和減貧效果。最後，本文闡述了自貿區存在的主要問題，並提出了相應的政策建議。在未來，推動世界互聯互通，促進貿易與投資自由化將繼續成為世界的減貧良方。
關鍵詞：自由貿易區 中國—東盟 減貧 貿易自由化
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area: Economic Influence and Poverty Reduction Effect
Yu Miaojie and Gao Kailin
The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) is the most populous free trade area in the world and the third-largest economic cooperation area in the world. Most CAFTA members are developing countries and face the common challenge of economic development and poverty eradication. The establishment of the CAFTA not onlybears huge economic significance, but also has a crucial poverty reduction effect. Since 2002, when China and the ASEAN signed an agreement to establishthe CAFTA, a number of economic cooperation agreements have been reached in the fields of trade, investment, and infrastructure construction, which have contributed to the liberalization of trade and investment, the economic growth of China and ASEAN countries and the progress in poverty eradication. This article reviews the establishment of the CAFTA, summarizes the measures intrade and investment promotion and the cooperation in infrastructure construction; it analyzes the status quo of trade and investment between China and ASEAN countries and the economic influence and poverty reduction effect ofthe CAFTA. Finally, the article elaborates on the main challenges facing the CAFTA and puts forward policy suggestions. In the future, promotion of global connectivity and liberalization of trade and investment will remain a very effective way to reduce poverty.
從“貨幣三元悖論”到“金融三元悖論”—— 國際資本流動研究的新思路
範小云 劉 糧 陳 雷
本文通過梳理國際金融發展的歷史脈絡，發現傳統的開放宏觀經濟學理論框架通常將對經濟區域、貨幣區域和決策主體的簡化假設統一起來進行建模分析，政策制定者關注重點在於對“貨幣三元悖論”的選擇上。本文在探討金融因素在理論分析中的地位愈加重要的基礎上，提出傳統假設下對國際資本流動分析的弊端，以及對金融全球化、金融政策獨立性和金融穩定，即“金融三元悖論”的思考。本文認為，國際資本流動研究的新思路應該打破經濟領域界限，考慮國際貨幣的重要地位以及多元決策主體的差異性，從跨國銀行和跨國非金融企業的聯合資產負債表入手，以總資本流動為分析重點，探索總外部頭寸背後暗含的流動性總量和金融不穩定特徵，從而為一國在金融全球化的趨勢下，提出實現國內金融穩定提供合理的宏觀審慎管理措施和跨國銀行流動性管理建議。
關鍵詞：貨幣三元悖論 金融三元悖論 國際資本流動 金融穩定
From “Monetary Trilemma” to “Financial Trilemma”: A New Perspective of International Capital Flows
Fan Xiaoyun, Liu Liang and Chen Lei
This article analyzes the history of international finance and stresses that the new open macroeconomics is based on the assumption of “triple coincidence”, which is the coincidence of GDP area, currency area and decision-making unit. Policymakers have focused on the framework of “monetary trilemma”. The article argues that financial factors have become more and more important and points out shortcomings of the traditional framework. It further analyzes the“financial trilemma”, which involves relationship among financial globalization, financial policy independence and financial stability. The article proposes some new perspectives for looking at international capitalflows: (1) Breaking of the GDP area restriction; (2) International currencies taken into consideration; (3) The heterogeneity of decision-making units taken into consideration. It also suggests that more attention should be paid to the consolidated balance sheets of multinational banks and non-banking enterprises and gross capital flows should be analyzed to study the characteristics of liquidity and financial stability so that suggestions can be made for a country to implement appropriate prudential macromanagement to achieve domestic financial stability against the back drop of financial globalization and properly manage global banking liquidity.
新時代中國的對外貿易發展：機遇與挑戰—— 中國世界經濟學會國際貿易論壇（2018）學術研討會觀點綜述
邱 斌 張 亮 劉修巖 陳 健
Opportunities and Challenges in China’s Foreign Trade Development in
the New Era — Summary of the International Trade Forum (2018),
Organizedby the China Society of World Economics
Qiu Bin, Zhang Liang, Liu Xiuyan and Chen Jian
The International Trade Forum (2018), organized by China Society of World Economics, was held from April 14 to 15, 2018, in Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. The theme of the forum is China’s Foreign Trade Development in the New Era: Opportunities and Challenges.
延伸閱讀：
關注中國社科院世界經濟與政治研究所微信公眾號，請微信搜索“iwepcass”或“中國社科院世界經濟與政治研究所”。
閱讀更多 中國社科院世經政所 的文章
