When it comes to the biggest monetary experiment in modern history, namely Japan's QE which has seen the BOJ buy enough Japanese bonds to match the GDP of Japan, there is nothing more important than the BOJ having accurate metrics to determine if its "inflation targeting" is working, i.e., if wages and broader inflation are rising. Alas, the recent news that Japan's labor ministry published erroneous statistics for years, has raised doubt about not only the accuracy of economic analysis released by the Bank of Japan, but prompted investors to doubt absolutely every economic report published by Tokyo.
當談到現代歷史上最大的貨幣實驗，即日本的量化寬鬆政策，量化寬鬆政策使日本央行購買了足夠多的日本國債，以匹配日本的GDP。沒有什麼比日本央行擁有精確的指標來確定其"通脹目標"是否有效更重要的了，即工資和更廣泛的通脹是否在上升。 遺憾的是，最近日本勞動省多年來發布的錯誤統計數據，不僅讓人們對日本央行發佈的經濟分析的準確性產生了懷疑，而且讓投資者對東京發佈的每一份經濟報告都產生了絕對的懷疑。
For those who are unfamiliar with the latest economic fake news scandal, on Wednesday Japan's labor ministry revised its monthly labor survey for the period between 2012 and 2018 admitting it had overstated nominal year-on-year wage increases by as much as 0.7 percentage point between January and November of last year, to take just one example.
對於那些不熟悉最新經濟假新聞醜聞的人來說，舉個例子，週三，日本勞動省修改了2012年至2018年期間的月度勞動力調查，承認去年1月至11月期間的名義工資同比漲幅誇大多達0.7個百分點。
Unfortunately, there are many other examples, and according to an Internal Affairs Ministry report released late Thursday, nearly half of Japan’s key economic government statistics need to be reviewed with 22 discrete statistics, or roughly 40% of the 56 key government economic releases, turning out to be "fake news" and in need to be corrected.
不幸的是，還有許多其他的例子。根據日本內務省週四晚間發佈的一份報告，日本政府關鍵的經濟統計數據中，將近一半需要用22個獨立的統計數據進行審核，或者說，在政府發佈的56個關鍵經濟數據中，約有40% 的數據是"假新聞"，需要糾正。
This is a major problem for Kuroda and the Bank of Japan which uses statistics from the labor ministry to compile two key pieces of economic data, in making its ongoing decisions whether to continue, taper or expand QE.
對於黑田東彥和日本央行來說，這是一個大問題，它們使用勞動省的統計數據來編制兩個關鍵的經濟數據，以決定是繼續、縮減還是擴大量化寬鬆政策。
One, according to Nikkei, is the quarterly output gap which compares the nation's supply capacity with total demand. Supply capacity is derived from elements such as labor and capital spending. Data from the labor ministry survey, such as the number of hours logged by the workforce, is used to compute the output gap.
其一，根據日經指數數據，季度產出缺口，將國家的供給能力和總需求進行比較。 供給能力來源於勞動力和資本支出等要素。 勞動部的調查數據，比如勞動力的工作時間，被用來計算產出缺口。
Japan's output gap has climbed further and further into positive territory. That has partially informed the BOJ's judgement that "Japan's economy is expanding moderately." The gap is also considered a leading indicator for inflation. A sustained positive reading could lead companies to raise prices and lift wages.
日本的產出缺口進一步攀升至正值。 這在一定程度上支持了日本央行的判斷，即"日本經濟正在適度擴張" 這一差距也被認為是通貨膨脹的領先指標。 持續的積極讀數可能會導致企業提高物價和工資。
Meanwhile, even as Japan's consumer price index that excludes fresh foods continues to print below 1%, the BOJ has been stubbornly saying that prices are maintaining momentum toward its 2% inflation target, with the conclusion based in part on the output gap.
與此同時，儘管日本的消費者價格指數(不包括新鮮食品)仍然低於1% ，但日本央行一直頑固地表示，物價正向2%通脹目標前進的勢頭，其結論部分基於產出缺口。
In retrospect, it now appears that the BOJ may have been "mistaken" and since the underlying data was erroneous for all the years during which Japan's QE was running, the BOJ will now face pressure to rework its entire framework and estimates in light of the data scandal.
回顧過去，現在看來日本央行可能是"錯誤的"，而且由於在日本實施量化寬鬆政策的這些年裡，基本數據都是錯誤的，日本央行現在將面臨壓力，要求它根據數據醜聞重新調整整個框架和估算。
"With regard to the extent of the impact, we intend to undertake a careful examination based on upcoming results of government studies," a BOJ spokesperson told Nikkei, offering a few other details.
"關於影響的程度，我們打算根據即將到來的政府研究結果進行仔細的審查,"日本央行發言人告訴日經新聞，並提供了其他一些細節。
In addition to the output gap, the services producer price index, released monthly, is the second key BOJ indicator reliant on the labor survey. If the BOJ is forced to drastically revise either this indicator or the output gap, it could introduce uncertainty about the conclusions reached by the central bank which has bought trillions in government bonds and stock ETFs relying on... fake economic data!
除了產出缺口，每月公佈的服務業生產者價格指數是日本央行依賴勞動力調查的第二個關鍵指標。 如果日本央行被迫大幅修改這一指標或產出缺口，它可能會引起對央行得出的結論的不確定性，央行依賴於虛假的經濟數據購買了數萬億美元的政府債券和股票ETF。
"There is no telling how far the impact has spread," said a senior BOJ official, and for the BOJ to admit that economic data in Japan is now sheer chaos and that inflation had been overstated for years, is nothing short of catastrophic.
日本央行一位高級官員表示:"目前還不清楚這種影響已經蔓延到何種程度。"日本央行承認，目前日本的經濟數據完全是一片混亂，多年來通脹一直被誇大，這無異於災難。
Meanwhile, adding insult to injury, Japan's latest scandal means that whereas everyone had long been making fun of China's economic data for being manipulated, fabricated and goalseeked, Japan's own "data" was far, far worse.
與此同時，雪上加霜的是，日本最近的醜聞意味著，儘管長期以來所有人都在取笑中國的經濟數據受到操縱、捏造和篡改，但日本自己的"數據"要糟糕得多。
In the BOJ's quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, at least eight out of roughly 60 diagrams incorporate data from the labor survey. Those include charts depicting individual income, nominal wages and consumer spending. The latest report, released Wednesday, amusingly describes a "steady improvement in the employment and income situation." Alas, it turns out the improvement was only possible because the underlying data was wrong and/or "cooked."
在日本央行的季度經濟活動和價格展望中，大約60個圖表中至少有8個包含了勞動力調查的數據。 其中包括描述個人收入、名義工資和消費者支出的圖表。 週三發佈的最新報告有趣地描述了"就業和收入狀況的穩步改善" 唉，事實證明，這種改善只可能是因為基礎數據是錯誤的和 / 或"編造"的。
The outlooks are considered valuable since they are based on the conclusions about the economy and prices reached by BOJ Gov. Kuroda. The central bank may see no need to revise earlier statements, but the reliability of the body risks being thrown into question regardless.
這些展望被認為是有價值的，因為它們基於日本央行行長黑田東彥對經濟和價格的結論。 央行可能認為沒有必要修改此前的聲明，但無論如何，該機構的可靠性都有可能受到質疑。
Meanwhile, just to demonstrate how much of a circular farce "data" in developed countries has become, after Japan’s labor ministry admitted it published faulty wage data, 79% of respondents in a Nikkei poll taken between Friday and Sunday said they now can’t trust government statistics, while 14% said they can. And, making the farce complete, a separate poll found that the approval rating for PM Shinzo Abe rose 6% from last month to 53% in the Nikkei poll, with his disapproval rating falling 7%.
與此同時，在日本勞動省承認發佈了錯誤的工資數據後，為了證實發達國家的"數據"在多大程度上已經成為一個循環鬧劇，週五和週日之間進行的日經指數調查中，79%的受訪者表示，他們現在不能相信政府的統計數據，而14%的受訪者表示他們可以。 另一項獨立民意調查顯示，日本經濟新聞社對首相安倍晉三的支持率比上個月上升了6% ，達到53% ，而他的不支持率則下降了7% 。
We wonder how long before Japan admits that all of its polls showing support for the prime minister were just as fake.
我們想知道，日本還要多久才會承認，所有支持首相的民意調查都是假的。
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