When it comes to the biggest monetary experiment in modern history, namely Japan's QE which has seen the BOJ buy enough Japanese bonds to match the GDP of Japan, there is nothing more important than the BOJ having accurate metrics to determine if its "inflation targeting" is working, i.e., if wages and broader inflation are rising. Alas, the recent news that Japan's labor ministry published erroneous statistics for years, has raised doubt about not only the accuracy of economic analysis released by the Bank of Japan, but prompted investors to doubt absolutely every economic report published by Tokyo.
当谈到现代历史上最大的货币实验，即日本的量化宽松政策，量化宽松政策使日本央行购买了足够多的日本国债，以匹配日本的GDP。没有什么比日本央行拥有精确的指标来确定其"通胀目标"是否有效更重要的了，即工资和更广泛的通胀是否在上升。 遗憾的是，最近日本劳动省多年来发布的错误统计数据，不仅让人们对日本央行发布的经济分析的准确性产生了怀疑，而且让投资者对东京发布的每一份经济报告都产生了绝对的怀疑。
For those who are unfamiliar with the latest economic fake news scandal, on Wednesday Japan's labor ministry revised its monthly labor survey for the period between 2012 and 2018 admitting it had overstated nominal year-on-year wage increases by as much as 0.7 percentage point between January and November of last year, to take just one example.
对于那些不熟悉最新经济假新闻丑闻的人来说，举个例子，周三，日本劳动省修改了2012年至2018年期间的月度劳动力调查，承认去年1月至11月期间的名义工资同比涨幅夸大多达0.7个百分点。
Unfortunately, there are many other examples, and according to an Internal Affairs Ministry report released late Thursday, nearly half of Japan’s key economic government statistics need to be reviewed with 22 discrete statistics, or roughly 40% of the 56 key government economic releases, turning out to be "fake news" and in need to be corrected.
不幸的是，还有许多其他的例子。根据日本内务省周四晚间发布的一份报告，日本政府关键的经济统计数据中，将近一半需要用22个独立的统计数据进行审核，或者说，在政府发布的56个关键经济数据中，约有40% 的数据是"假新闻"，需要纠正。
This is a major problem for Kuroda and the Bank of Japan which uses statistics from the labor ministry to compile two key pieces of economic data, in making its ongoing decisions whether to continue, taper or expand QE.
对于黑田东彦和日本央行来说，这是一个大问题，它们使用劳动省的统计数据来编制两个关键的经济数据，以决定是继续、缩减还是扩大量化宽松政策。
One, according to Nikkei, is the quarterly output gap which compares the nation's supply capacity with total demand. Supply capacity is derived from elements such as labor and capital spending. Data from the labor ministry survey, such as the number of hours logged by the workforce, is used to compute the output gap.
其一，根据日经指数数据，季度产出缺口，将国家的供给能力和总需求进行比较。 供给能力来源于劳动力和资本支出等要素。 劳动部的调查数据，比如劳动力的工作时间，被用来计算产出缺口。
Japan's output gap has climbed further and further into positive territory. That has partially informed the BOJ's judgement that "Japan's economy is expanding moderately." The gap is also considered a leading indicator for inflation. A sustained positive reading could lead companies to raise prices and lift wages.
日本的产出缺口进一步攀升至正值。 这在一定程度上支持了日本央行的判断，即"日本经济正在适度扩张" 这一差距也被认为是通货膨胀的领先指标。 持续的积极读数可能会导致企业提高物价和工资。
Meanwhile, even as Japan's consumer price index that excludes fresh foods continues to print below 1%, the BOJ has been stubbornly saying that prices are maintaining momentum toward its 2% inflation target, with the conclusion based in part on the output gap.
与此同时，尽管日本的消费者价格指数(不包括新鲜食品)仍然低于1% ，但日本央行一直顽固地表示，物价正向2%通胀目标前进的势头，其结论部分基于产出缺口。
In retrospect, it now appears that the BOJ may have been "mistaken" and since the underlying data was erroneous for all the years during which Japan's QE was running, the BOJ will now face pressure to rework its entire framework and estimates in light of the data scandal.
回顾过去，现在看来日本央行可能是"错误的"，而且由于在日本实施量化宽松政策的这些年里，基本数据都是错误的，日本央行现在将面临压力，要求它根据数据丑闻重新调整整个框架和估算。
"With regard to the extent of the impact, we intend to undertake a careful examination based on upcoming results of government studies," a BOJ spokesperson told Nikkei, offering a few other details.
"关于影响的程度，我们打算根据即将到来的政府研究结果进行仔细的审查,"日本央行发言人告诉日经新闻，并提供了其他一些细节。
In addition to the output gap, the services producer price index, released monthly, is the second key BOJ indicator reliant on the labor survey. If the BOJ is forced to drastically revise either this indicator or the output gap, it could introduce uncertainty about the conclusions reached by the central bank which has bought trillions in government bonds and stock ETFs relying on... fake economic data!
除了产出缺口，每月公布的服务业生产者价格指数是日本央行依赖劳动力调查的第二个关键指标。 如果日本央行被迫大幅修改这一指标或产出缺口，它可能会引起对央行得出的结论的不确定性，央行依赖于虚假的经济数据购买了数万亿美元的政府债券和股票ETF。
"There is no telling how far the impact has spread," said a senior BOJ official, and for the BOJ to admit that economic data in Japan is now sheer chaos and that inflation had been overstated for years, is nothing short of catastrophic.
日本央行一位高级官员表示:"目前还不清楚这种影响已经蔓延到何种程度。"日本央行承认，目前日本的经济数据完全是一片混乱，多年来通胀一直被夸大，这无异于灾难。
Meanwhile, adding insult to injury, Japan's latest scandal means that whereas everyone had long been making fun of China's economic data for being manipulated, fabricated and goalseeked, Japan's own "data" was far, far worse.
与此同时，雪上加霜的是，日本最近的丑闻意味着，尽管长期以来所有人都在取笑中国的经济数据受到操纵、捏造和篡改，但日本自己的"数据"要糟糕得多。
In the BOJ's quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, at least eight out of roughly 60 diagrams incorporate data from the labor survey. Those include charts depicting individual income, nominal wages and consumer spending. The latest report, released Wednesday, amusingly describes a "steady improvement in the employment and income situation." Alas, it turns out the improvement was only possible because the underlying data was wrong and/or "cooked."
在日本央行的季度经济活动和价格展望中，大约60个图表中至少有8个包含了劳动力调查的数据。 其中包括描述个人收入、名义工资和消费者支出的图表。 周三发布的最新报告有趣地描述了"就业和收入状况的稳步改善" 唉，事实证明，这种改善只可能是因为基础数据是错误的和 / 或"编造"的。
The outlooks are considered valuable since they are based on the conclusions about the economy and prices reached by BOJ Gov. Kuroda. The central bank may see no need to revise earlier statements, but the reliability of the body risks being thrown into question regardless.
这些展望被认为是有价值的，因为它们基于日本央行行长黑田东彦对经济和价格的结论。 央行可能认为没有必要修改此前的声明，但无论如何，该机构的可靠性都有可能受到质疑。
Meanwhile, just to demonstrate how much of a circular farce "data" in developed countries has become, after Japan’s labor ministry admitted it published faulty wage data, 79% of respondents in a Nikkei poll taken between Friday and Sunday said they now can’t trust government statistics, while 14% said they can. And, making the farce complete, a separate poll found that the approval rating for PM Shinzo Abe rose 6% from last month to 53% in the Nikkei poll, with his disapproval rating falling 7%.
与此同时，在日本劳动省承认发布了错误的工资数据后，为了证实发达国家的"数据"在多大程度上已经成为一个循环闹剧，周五和周日之间进行的日经指数调查中，79%的受访者表示，他们现在不能相信政府的统计数据，而14%的受访者表示他们可以。 另一项独立民意调查显示，日本经济新闻社对首相安倍晋三的支持率比上个月上升了6% ，达到53% ，而他的不支持率则下降了7% 。
We wonder how long before Japan admits that all of its polls showing support for the prime minister were just as fake.
我们想知道，日本还要多久才会承认，所有支持首相的民意调查都是假的。
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