How behavioural economics can explain why people are stockpiling toilet paper.
厕纸囤积行为背后的行为经济学
One of the relatively predictable outcomes from Coronavirus — especially given likely impacts on global supply chains, travel plans, and government finances — has been the turbulence on financial markets. Few pundits, however, would have predicted that the Coronavirus epidemic would cause turbulence in the market for toilet rolls.
冠状病毒的一个相对可预测的后果——尤其考虑到对全球供应链、出行计划和政府金融等所可能造成的影响——是金融市场的波动。但很少有专家预测到它竟然会在厕纸市场中狂掀波澜。
Shelves at Sydney's supermarkets were empty on Saturday (see photo). My first thought was that diarrhea must be a symptom of Coronavirus? But no — fever, shortness of breath, coughs, sore throats: Coronavirus causes the classic symptoms commonly associated with flu.
周六，悉尼一家超市的厕纸货架空空如也（见照片）。我第一反应是，冠状病毒的症状之一肯定是腹泻？但，并非如此。发烧、气短、咳嗽、喉咙痛——管状病毒的症状与流感常见症状无异。
Even if people are buying toilet paper because it is a close substitute for tissues (and a roll is cheaper than tissues), why would people buy so much toilet paper in preparation for an illness that, for most healthy people, will be equivalent to a bad cold? Perhaps meticulous forward-planning is an explanation.
即使人们购买厕纸只是因为它是纸巾的最相似替代物（而且厕纸也比纸巾便宜），那么为什么面对这样一个对大多数健康人只是相当于一次严重感冒的疾病，人们要买这么多厕纸呢？可能事无巨细的未雨绸缪行为是背后原因之一。
But numerous studies from behavioural economics show that most of us are prone to short-termism and procrastination — even when it comes to important, long-term decisions involving our health, pensions savings and house purchases. So it seems unlikely that anyone would plan that far ahead for one of the most mundane of purchases, especially as toilet paper is so bulky to store.
但大量行为经济学研究都显示，我们大多数人更倾向于短期主义和拖延——即使面对的是关于我们健康、养老储蓄或购房等的重要、长期决策。所以，每个人都会未雨绸缪地去提前采购如此寻常的货物，这几乎是不可能的，尤其厕纸又那么占空间。
Psychologists and economists have suggested a range of explanations; a desire to control bodily functions in the face of fear of illness; the need for security and comfort in a stressful situation; preparing for shortages (Lucy, 2020; Yap, 2020). Other commentators hypothesize that loo roll mania is something like a fear of missing out, similar to the reactions seen during banking runs (Paloyo, 2020).
心理学家和经济学家们提出了各种解释：
面对对疾病的恐惧时所产生的一种想要控制身体机能的欲望；
在压力环境中对安全感和慰藉感的需求；
为厕纸短缺做准备等。
其他评论者还提出这样一种假设：厕纸抢购潮类似于一种“恐怕错过”之心理，就像是银行挤兑（银行挤兑是指大量的银行客户同时到银行提取现金的现象。银行挤兑往往是由信用度下降、传闻破产等原因导致储户对在银行内的储蓄的安全有怀疑造成的。）时的民众反应一样。
People worrying that they will be caught short, rush to the shops to buy as much loo roll as they can find — like savers rushing to the bank when they fear their bank will run out of money. The banking run explanation does not, however, explain why people are buying loo roll in such volumes. Also, losing a life's worth of savings to a banking run has life-changing implications in terms of poverty and hardship that are incomparable to the consequences of having no loo paper.
人们担心厕纸可能会发生短缺，因此会冲到商店大量囤积——就像是人们害怕银行没钱而冲到银行取钱一样。但这种银行挤兑现象并无法解释人们为什么会如此大量购买。另外，失去一生储蓄，会改变一生，陷于贫穷困苦，这也并非是厕纸短缺所造成的后果可比拟的。
So what does behavioural economics and finance tell us about why someone would rush to spend excessive amounts on what is ordinarily a trivial item? The behavioural literature on speculative bubbles provides some potential explanations. One of the more colourful examples of a speculative bubble is Tulipmania: for a brief period in 1637, speculators got very excited about tulip bulbs. At the height of Tulipmania, one of the most prized bulbs, the exotic Semper Augustus, sold for around 1,000 florins — enough money to buy a smart townhouse, a small fleet of battleships or a drove of 3,000 pigs. Tulipmania is often cited as a classic example of extreme irrationality, but someone believing that they had a good chance of selling a tulip bulb for $1.1m, would not be stupid to buy it for $1m.
那么，关于对这种不起眼之物大肆囤积的行为，行为经济学和金融学是如何解释的呢？关于投机泡沫的行为学文献为我们提供了一些潜在的解释。关于投机泡沫，其中一个最生动的例子就是“
郁金香狂热”——1637年的一段期间，投机者们对郁金香球根大肆追捧。在最高潮时期，最高价的球根种类之一——异国品种 Semper Augustus，售价高达约1000弗洛林币（1弗洛林=2先令）——这可以买一个时髦的小别墅，或一个小规模舰队，或3000头猪。郁金香狂热通常会被作为极端不理性的经典例子，但对于那些认为有很大机会可以把一个郁金香球根卖到110万美元的人，出价100万美元去购买这样一个球根，也就不能被称之为愚蠢了。If people are prepared to spend the equivalent of millions of dollars on a tulip bulb, then why not spend 100s of dollars on loo rolls, especially if you think you can sell them for more? Toilet rolls are listed on eBay Australia at the moment — maximum price AU$1,000,000 for 600 rolls — that's AU$1,667 per roll.
如果人们愿意花几百万美元去买一个郁金香球根，那么，花几百美元买厕纸，也不是什么不可思议的事，尤其是当你觉得你一转手还可以赚钱时。当前，澳大利亚eBay上面也有人开始卖厕纸——最高价是600卷100万澳元——即，每卷1667澳元。
Nonetheless, it is likely that only a minority of people are buying toilet rolls to sell them, and the fact that such large numbers of people are joining the crowd reflects our inbuilt instincts, as social animals, to follow others. Our propensity to follow others is complex. Some of our reasons for herding behind others are well-reasoned. Herding can be a type of heuristic: a decision-making short-cut that saves us time and cognitive effort. When other people's choices might be a useful source of information, we use a herding heuristic and follow others because we believe that they know more than we do.
但好像打算转手卖掉的人只是少数，事实上，如此大量的人一起凑热闹，这反映了我们作为社会型动物的一种内在本能：追随他人。我们的从众习惯是一种情结。关于人类的从众倾向，有一些很科学的解释。这种倾向可以是一种“启发法” ——所谓的“启发法”，是指我们（比如，根据经验等）所采用的决策捷径，这样可以帮助我们节省时间，且不用花大量精力去思考（但这种经验法则为主导的思维，会导致种种认知偏见的发生，比如，觉得熟悉的就肯定是安全的。其实事实可能并非如此）。当其他人所做的决策可能是一个很有用的信息来源，我们就会采用“从众”这一启发法，选择随大流，因为我们相信他们懂得比我们自己懂得多。
（图中的“可得性启发”即“启发法”中的一种类型）
When we see a long queue, outside a restaurant, for example, we may join that queue because we conclude that everyone else queuing knows how good the restaurant's food is. Other times, our reasons for following others may be less well-reasoned, driven more by peer pressure and group-think that any sort of reasoned process — for example mob violence. In his 1895 classic — The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind, French polymath Gustave le Bon explored how and why mobs form — hypothesising that mobs take on a life and personality of their own, separate and distinct from the individuals within it. Also, numerous experiments from social psychology have shown how blindly susceptible we can be to the influence of others, especially authority figures (Baddeley 2018).
比如，当我们看到一家餐厅外面大排长龙时，我们可能也会加入进去，因为我们认为，其他每个排队的人都知道这家餐厅有多好吃。而其他时候，我们的从众思维则并没有充分合理的理由，而更多的是来源于“同伴压力”和“群体思维”——比如，群体暴乱等。在法国多领域专家 Gustave Le Bon 1895年的经典著作《乌合之众——大众心理研究》中，他探讨了暴民的形成方式与原因——他认为，暴民群体会形成自己的生命和性格，而且这一生命和性格是与其中每个个体存在区别的。另外，社会心理学领域的众多实验也表明，面对他人影响，尤其是权威人物的影响时，我们会多么盲目顺从。
This connects with key insights from behavioural economics about the different drivers of our decisions. Many decisions reflect a complex interplay of reason and emotion, each driven by different thinking systems. Our System 1 thinking is quick and instinctive; our System 2 thinking is slow and deliberative (Kahneman 2011). Herding probably reflects an interplay of the two (Baddeley 2018).
这也呼应了行为经济学中对人类决策不同驱动因素的深刻理论。很多决策都反应了理智与情感之间的复杂互相作用，二者分别由不同的思维体系驱动。我们的思维体系1快速且基于直觉；思维体系2缓慢且理性。从众思维则反应了这两种思维体系之间的互相作用。
So if you are worrying about the empty supermarket shelves, take heart because the toilet roll market will probably stabilise. Tulipmania was short-lived and, if you can hold on, loo roll mania will be short-lived too. Alternatively, I know some people who have large stockpiles and may be willing to sell you some toilet paper for less than $1,667 a roll.
所以，如果你在担心空空如也的货架，那么，无需担心，因为厕纸市场有很大几率会恢复稳定。上文所提到的郁金香狂热持续时间很短，而且，如果你能坚持住，这次的厕纸狂热也不会持续很长时间。也或者，我知道有些人囤积了大量厕纸，或许他们会很愿意用低于1667美元的价格卖给你点儿。
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