一、外刊阅读：小猫钓鱼
U.S. economy is now in recession, UCLA Anderson Forecast says
A. affected B. rate C. proportion D. predicting E. leisure F. significantly
G. modestly H. shrink I. severe J. consideration K. supply
Forget predictions that the U.S. economy will enter a recession(衰退) this year due to the coronavirus pandemic — the UCLA Anderson Forecast says it has happened already.
On Monday, the school revised a forecast it issued just last week that stopped short of (31) ______ a recession. The revised version says the economy has already stopped growing and will remain in recession through the end of September.
This is the first time in the 68-year history of the forecast that it has been updated before its planned quarterly update.
Economists at the UCLA Anderson School of Management — the university’s graduate business school — said they revised the forecast after incorporating a review of how the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic (32) ______ the U.S. economy.
The year started solidly, but the forecast predicted that rapid effects on the economy from the virus would slow first-quarter economic growth to a rate of 0.4% and that the economy would (33) ______ at a 6.5% rate in the second quarter and a 1.9% rate in the third quarter.
Assuming the pandemic ends this summer and supply chains are restored, the forecast predicts the resumption of normal economic activity and an economic growth (34) ______ of 4% in the fourth quarter.
Because California has a higher(35) ______ of its economic activity linked to tourism and trans-Pacific transportation, the forecast predicts that the recession will be slightly more (36) ______ in the state.
California is expected to shed more than 280,000 of its payroll jobs, with (37) ______, hospitality and transportation sector jobs accounting for more than one-third of those. That would drive up the unemployment rate to 6.3% by the end of this year, with effects continuing into 2021, when the unemployment rate is expected to average 6.6%.
In the forecast released last week, UCLA economists tried to take into (38) ______ the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. That forecast had still expected U.S. GDP to grow(39) ______ in the second and third quarters.
It said then its predictions were based on the midpoint between the coronavirus having a very minimal effect and, on the other end, the virus causing a recession. It also said the strength of the California economy would help buffer the state from short-term interruptions in (40) ______ chains and travel.
Since then, the disruptions to the economy have jumped.（381）
二、参考答案DAHBC IEJGK
三、原文衔接
四、核心词汇
affected rate proportion predicting leisure significantly
modestly shrink severe consideration supply
recession
predicted
disruptions
interruptions
accounting
account
accounted
accounting
accounts
unaccounted
affect
affected
affecting
affects
unaffected
consider
consideration
considerations
considered
considering
consideringly
considers
reconsider
reconsideration
reconsiderations
reconsidered
reconsidering
reconsiders
unconsidered
disrupt
disrupted
disrupting
disruption
disruptions
disruptive
disruptively
disrupts
interrupt
interrupted
interrupting
interruption
interruptions
interrupts
uninterrupted
uninterruptedly
leisure
leisured
leisureliness
leisurely
modest
immodest
immodestly
modestly
modesty
predict
predictability
predictable
predictably
predicted
predicting
prediction
predictions
predictive
predictor
predictors
predicts
unpredictability
unpredictable
unpredictably
proportion
proportional
proportionality
proportionally
proportionate
proportionately
proportioned
proportions
rate
rateable
rated
rater
raters
rates
rating
ratings
recession
recessional
recessionary
recessions
severe
severely
severeness
severer
severest
severity
shrink
shrank
shrinkable
shrinkage
shrinkages
shrinking
shrinks
shrunk
shrunken
significant
insignificant
insignificantly
significantly
supply
resupplied
resupplies
resupply
resupplying
supplied
supplier
suppliers
supplies
supplying
五、原文翻译
Forget predictions that the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic — the UCLA Anderson Forecast says it has happened already.
忘了对美国经济今年将因“冠状病毒”大流行而进入衰退的预测吧——加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森分校的预测说，这种情况已经发生了。
On Monday, the school revised a forecast it issued just last week that stopped short of predicting a recession. The revised version says the economy has already stopped growing and will remain in recession through the end of September.
周一，该校修订了上周发布的一份预测，但没有预测经济衰退。修订版说，经济已经停止增长，到9月底仍将处于衰退状态。
This is the first time in the 68-year history of the forecast that it has been updated before its planned quarterly update.
这是68年历史上第一次在计划的季度更新之前更新预测。
Economists at the UCLA Anderson School of Management — the university’s graduate business school — said they revised the forecast after incorporating a review of how the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic affected the U.S. economy.
加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森管理学院的经济学家表示，他们在纳入了对1957-58年H2N2流感大流行如何影响美国经济的回顾后，修改了预测。
The year started solidly, but the forecast predicted that rapid effects on the economy from the virus would slow first-quarter economic growth to a rate of 0.4% and that the economy would shrink at a 6.5% rate in the second quarter and a 1.9% rate in the third quarter.
今年开局稳健，但预测称，病毒对经济的快速影响将使第一季度经济增长放缓至0.4%，第二季度经济将以6.5%和1.9%的速度萎缩。
Assuming the pandemic ends this summer and supply chains are restored, the forecast predicts the resumption of normal economic activity and an economic growth rate of 4% in the fourth quarter.
假设疫情今年夏天结束，供应链恢复，预测第四季度经济将恢复正常活动，经济增长率将达到4%。
Because California has a higher proportion of its economic activity linked to tourism and trans-Pacific transportation, the forecast predicts that the recession will be slightly more severe in the state.
由于加州经济活动中与旅游业和跨太平洋运输业相关的比例较高，预测预测加州经济衰退将略为严重。
California is expected to shed more than 280,000 of its payroll jobs, with leisure, hospitality and transportation sector jobs accounting for more than one-third of those. That would drive up the unemployment rate to 6.3% by the end of this year, with effects continuing into 2021, when the unemployment rate is expected to average 6.6%.
加州预计将裁员28万多人，其中休闲、酒店和交通部门的工作岗位占三分之一以上。这将推动失业率在今年年底前升至6.3%，其影响将持续到2021年，届时失业率预计平均为6.6%。
In the forecast released last week, UCLA economists tried to take into consideration the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. That forecast had still expected U.S. GDP to grow modestly in the second and third quarters.
在上周发布的预测中，加州大学洛杉矶分校的经济学家试图考虑到“冠状病毒”爆发带来的经济影响。这一预测仍预期美国第二和第三季度GDP将温和增长。
It said then its predictions were based on the midpoint between the coronavirus having a very minimal effect and, on the other end, the virus causing a recession. It also said the strength of the California economy would help buffer the state from short-term interruptions in supply chains and travel.
据说，当时的预测是基于“冠状病毒”的影响非常小和另一方面导致经济衰退的病毒之间的中点。它还表示，加州经济的强劲将有助于缓冲该州供应链和旅游业的短期中断。
Since then, the disruptions to the economy have jumped.
从那时起，对经济的破坏就急剧增加。
（381）
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