摩根大通接班-大功告成


經濟學人| 摩根大通接班-大功告成

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When Jamie Dimon took the reins at JPMorgan Chase in 2005 he had, at the relatively tender age of 49,already earned himself a reputation.

傑米戴蒙( Jamie Dimon ) 2005年執掌摩根大通時,不過49歲的他已經功成名 就。


In the 1990s he was the wunderkind sidekick to the imperial Sandy Weill, then boss of Citigroup, the world's pre-eminent bank. Still, while some peers described Mr Dimon as brilliant, charismatic, caring and dedicated, others complained he was abrasive, foul-mouthed and unpredictable. Plenty doubted he was well suited to such a large stage.

上世紀90年代, 在全球最傑出的花 旗銀行,他是至高無上的老闆桑迪威爾 ( Sandy Weill)身邊少年得志的親信。不過,雖然一些同行形容他才華橫溢、 魅力非凡、富有愛心和獻身精神,另一 些人卻抱怨他為人粗魯、滿嘴髒話、難 以捉摸。很多人懷疑他是否適合這麼大 的舞臺。


Mr Dimon has put paid to these doubters. JPMorgan weathered the financial crisis well and has since become the bank that all the others want to emulate. It is big, globally active, dominant in retail and investment banking, transparent, well capitalised and admirably profitable.

戴蒙讓質疑者閉了嘴。摩根大通安然 度過了金融危機,並從此成為所有其他 銀行想要效仿的對象。它規模龐大,縱橫全球,在零售銀行和投資銀行領域佔 據主導地位,透明度高,資本充足,利潤非常可觀。


Last year its return on equity was a handsome 15%. Its annual profts are now double the entire current market value of Deutsche Bank, once Europe's pretender to the global investment-banking throne.

去年它的股本回報率是 15%,相當不俗。現在它的年利潤是德 意志銀行目前總市值的兩倍,這家歐洲 銀行曾經覬覦過全球投資銀行的王位。


However, another big question has remained unanswered: when Mr Dimon should leave and who will run the bank after he is gone. It has been cast in sharp relief by the recent news that Mr Dimon has undergone emergency surgery for an“aortic dissection", a rare heart condition. The bank says he is recovering well. But investors, the board, staff and regulators have had a reminder that one day JPMorgan will have to have a different leader.

但是,另一個大問題仍舊沒有答案: 戴蒙什麼時候該離開,他走後誰來接任。最近戴蒙因患罕見的心臟疾病“主.動脈夾層”接受了緊急手術,讓這個問題愈發凸顯。摩根大通表示他恢復得很 好。但投資者、董事會、員工和監管機 構都意識到,總有一天摩根大通將不得不換個領導人。


Wall Street's biggest succession decision is tricky for several reasons. JPMorgan couldbenchmark itself against other banks: in 2018 the head of Goldman Sachs retired and a flurry of European banks have waved goodbye to their leaders in the past few months.

華爾街這--最重大的繼任決策頗為棘手,有幾個原因。摩根大通可以對照一 下其他銀行的情況: 2018年高盛的掌門人退休,過去幾個月一批歐洲銀行也紛 紛向它們的將領揮手告別。


But in all these cases the firms were performing below their potential. Aged 63, Mr Dimon is no geriatric- -77 CEOs who are older than him are serving at firms in the S&P 500 index of America's biggest companies. The most seasoned, Warren Buffett, is still, inadvisedly,clinging on at the age of 89.

但所有這些 案例中,企業在當時都沒能發揮出自身 潛力。63歲的戴蒙還算不上老人家--在 代表美國大企業的標準普爾5o指數成 分股公司裡,有77位CEO年紀比他大。資歷最老的當屬巴菲特,他以89歲高齡堅守崗位,雖然這並非明智之舉。


Mr Dimon has served for longer than the typical American CEO, who lasts about a decade. Bob Iger, the boss of Disney, has just stood down after 15 years at the top. But tenure is not, in and of itself, a disqualification. There are 66 S&P 500 CEOs who have been in place longer than Mr Dimon. Reed Hastings has run Netflix for over two decades and few reckon he should press stop.

美國CEO的任期通常在十年左右, 戴蒙在位已經比這更久。迪士尼的老 板鮑勃伊格爾( Bob Iger)執掌公司15 年,近期剛離任。但任期本身並不是必須退下來的原因。標普50o公司中有 66位CEO的任職時間比戴蒙長。裡德. 黑斯廷斯( Reed Hastings)執掌奈飛 (Netflix)已有20多年,也沒什麼人覺 得他該就此打住。


So how to make a decision? Two tests matter.The first is that Mr Dimon is not blocking the path of an entire generation of successors who might end up leaving or becoming disillusioned. Inevitably, one cohort has already departed. A JPMorgan diaspora now run financial firms all over the world, including Wells Fargo, Barclays and Standard Chartered. It would be a mistake to let another generation go, too.

那麼該如何做決定呢?兩項測試很重 要。首先,戴蒙不能擋住整整一-代繼任 者的道路,這些人最終可能離職或幻想 破滅。不可避免的是,一些隊友已經離 開了。從摩根大通出去的人正在世界各 地經營金融公司,包括富國銀行、巴克 萊銀行和渣打銀行。再讓另一代人離開會是個錯誤。


Mr Dimon has two co-presidents directly beneath him who are both aged about 60. Beneath them is a broader group of half-a-dozen potential successors, most of whom are in their 50s and still being battle-hardened.

在戴蒙下一級的兩位聯席總裁都在6o歲左右。在他們之下還有六位潛在繼任者,其中多數50多歲,仍是久經沙場的厲害角色。


The second test is the likely time horizon of the strategic threats and opportunities that the bank faces. These mainly arise from technology- the prospect that big tech firms might challenge the big banks, or that new payments firms win huge customer bases independently of the banks, as they already have in China, or that new digital currencies take the world by storm. These trends will play out over a decade Or more-and no one, not even Mr Dimon, thinks that he will stay that long.

第二個測試是摩根大通面臨的戰略威脅和機遇可能的時間跨度。它們主要源 自科技:大型科技公司可能會挑戰大銀 行,或者獨立於銀行之外的新型支付公 司可能會贏得龐大的客戶群( 就像它們 已在中國做到的那樣),又或者是新的 數字貨幣席捲全球。這些趨勢將在十年 或更長的時間裡見分曉,但沒有人--包括戴蒙自己-- -認為他會留任那麼久。


Both tests suggest that Mr Dimon should leave the stage sooner rather than later. A good option would be for him to do so at the end of next year. By then the next generation of executives will have acquired the experience necessary to run the Western world's biggest bank at a time of technological tumult, while not being so frustrated that they quit. Even if JPMorgan and Mr Dimon follow this advice, they and the shareholders should reflect on another succession.

這兩項測試都表明,戴蒙的謝幕宜早 不宜遲。對他來說,明年年底是個不錯 的時間。到那時,下一代高管應該已經 掌握了必要的經驗,能夠在科技帶來的 動盪中執掌這家西方世界最大的銀行, 同時又不會因為再也等不下去了而離 開。即使摩根大通和戴蒙遵循這一-建 議,他們和股東也應該反思一下另一個 繼任案例。


March 2nd saw the death of Jack Welch, the former chief executive of General Electric (GE), and perhaps the most celebrated American boss of recent decades. He retired from GE in 2001 on a high, but the firm soon slipped into brutal decline, reflecting in part long-standing problems that became clear only once he had left.

3月2日,通用電氣前首席執 行官、可能是近幾十年來最著名的美國 老闆傑克韋爾奇去世。2001年,他從處 於鼎盛期的通用電氣退休,但這家公司 很快就陷入了嚴重的衰退,一定程度上 反映出久已有之、卻在他離開之後才清 晰顯現出來的問題。


The best bosses face up to the reality that at some point someone else has to be in charge. But even then their legacy can only be assessed years after they have thanked their team, shed a tear and walked out the door with their head held high.

最好的老闆會直面 現實,知道到了某個時刻總得讓其他人 挑起擔子來。但即便如此,要評估他們 的遺產,也要等到他們感謝了自己的團 隊、流下一滴熱淚、昂首走出公司大門 的好幾年之後。


重點單詞:

emulate [ˈemjuleɪt] v.努力趕上; 同…競爭; 仿真

Inevitably [ɪnˈevɪtəbli] adv不可避免地; 必然地

benchmark [ˈbentʃmɑːrk] n.基準 v.檢測(用基準問題測試)

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經濟學人| 摩根大通接班-大功告成


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