世界上有一些科技看似牛掰、貌似靠譜，卻始終沒發展起來，比如說：
Some technologies in the world seem awesome and reliable, but they have never been developed. For example：
虛擬現實，人造子宮，試管肉，可控核聚變，量子電腦。
Virtual Reality, Artificial Ovary, Clean Meat, Controlled Nuclear Fusion, Quantum Computer.
過去15年，特斯拉造出了最暢銷的電動汽車，SpaceX產出了性價比最高的火箭。這兩家公司的大老闆馬斯克認為：兩項技術的完美結合點，有可能就是電動飛機。
In the past 15 years, Tesla has made the best-selling electric cars, and SpaceX has produced the most cost-effective rocket. Musk, the boss of the two companies, believes that the perfect combination point of the two technologies may be electric aircraft.
他和好基友谷歌創始人拉里佩奇都認為：電池技術越來越成熟，交通工具肯定都得電動化。而一個巨大商機，就是電動飛機。
He and his bestie, Google's founder Larry Page, both agree that battery technology is becoming more and more mature and vehicles must be electrified, and there is a huge commercial opportunity, the electric aircraft.
連超級大佬都看好的技術，為什麼始終無法起飛？
Why the technology that even the super bosses think highly of cannot take off?
我是電動Emma, 今天手動告訴大家，電動飛機為啥沒發展起來。
I am Electric Emma. In this video, I will tell you manually why the electric aircraft has not been developed.
任何一項新技術能普及，都一定在兩個維度做得特別出色：提升便利性和降低價格。按這個邏輯，電動飛機有著超強的走紅潛力。
Any new technology that can be popularized must do particularly well in two dimensions: improving convenience and lowering the price. According to this logic, electric aircraft has great potential to become popular.
首先說第一維度“提升便利性”。電動飛機有可能讓我們實現在市中心登機。由於電驅動沒有噪音，再加上電動飛機扭矩比較大，需要的跑道更短，所以即使在市中心起降，也不會擾民。
Let's have a look at the first dimension, "improving convenience". The electric aircraft may allow us to board in the city center. Because there exists no noise in the electric drive, coupled with the larger torque of the electric aircraft and the shorter runway needed, it will not disturb residents even if it takes off and lands in the city center.
接著說第二維度“降低價格”，電動飛機的運營成本會很低。航空公司每次飛行的最大成本就是燃油費，佔了運營費用的40％-50%， 全體空乘人員的成本才佔15%-20%。能省下燃油費，機票大降價是必然。
Next, the second dimension, "lowering the price". The operating costs of electric aircraft will be very low. The largest cost of each flight is the fuel cost, which accounts for 40％-50% of an airline's operating expenses, while the cost of all flight attendants accounts for only 15%-20%. Surely, air tickets will be greatly reduced due to the savings on fuel.
既然電動飛機好處明顯，為啥始終沒能大規模量產呢？
Since the benefits of electric aircraft are obvious, why has no one ever produced it on a large scale?
這背後有三大痛點：
技術上，飛機有個豬隊友；
政策上，領證好比登天難；
資源上，超級大佬沒翻牌；
There are three major pain points behind this:
Technically, the aircraft has a weak teammate;
In policy, it is so difficult to get a certification;
In terms of resources, the super bosses are not interested in it.
除了逐一分析這些痛點外，我還想聊聊科技、商業、政治與文化的聯繫。科技偉大，卻並不萬能。只有當科技與人、與其他領域在對的時間發生化學反應時，它才會產生巨大價值。
In addition to analyzing these pain points one by one in this video, I also want to talk about the links between technology, business, politics, and culture. Science and technology are great, but not omnipotent. The technology produces great value only when it reacts with people and other fields at the right time.
先來說電動飛機的第一個痛點：
Let's start with the first pain point of electric aircraft:
01 技術上的豬隊友
Technical Weak Teammate
近20年，電機幾乎在驅動著整個物理世界：小至電吹風、電燈、大至電腦、電梯、電動車，越來越多東西都被電動化了。就連我，都變成電動Emma了。
In the past 20 years, electrical machinery has driven almost the entire physical world: from electric hair driers, electric lamps to computers, elevators, and electric cars, more things are being electrified, even I have become Electric Emma.
有待征服的，只剩下飛機火箭這種硬核選手。因為不能靠隨時拉根電線充電補能，所以想電動化飛機火箭，就得依靠一位豬隊友--電池。
Only hardcore players such as aircraft and rocket are left to be conquered. Because you can't recharge by pulling wire at any time, if you want to electrify the aircraft and rocket, you have to rely on a weak teammate--the battery.
從航空工程師的角度看，電池有三大硬傷：一貴二重三佔地方。
From an aeronautical engineer’s perspective, the battery has three major weaknesses: expensive, heavy, and taking up space.
電池的效率一直不如燃油。如今最好的電池，也只達到300wh/kg的能量密度。這效率用在飛機上，就相當尷尬了。
Batteries have always been less efficient than fuel. Today's best batteries can only reach an energy density of 300wh/kg and it is quite awkward to use on aircraft.
2018年，西門子造了一架“全球最牛”的純電小飛機，但它的電量只夠支撐一個駕駛員飛45分鐘。駕駛員表示：飛這玩意兒壓力山大，連夜宵都不敢吃，因為稍長胖些，這電量就連支撐他飛45分鐘都做不到了….
In 2018, Siemens made a small pure electric aircraft that was “the best in the world”, but the electricity can only support it for 45 minutes. The pilot said: flying with this thing was so stressful because he couldn't even eat midnight snacks. If he got a little fatter, the electricity could not even support him to fly for 45 minutes...
為什麼電池用在飛機上，會如此落魄呢？因為電池、機重和動力之間，有個無解死衚衕。我們來看這個電池矛盾模型：
Why does the battery perform so badly when used on an aircraft? Because there is an impasse between the battery, machine weight, and power. Let's take a look at this battery contradiction model:
只有當動力等於飛機的重量時，飛機才能飛起來。
所以如果飛機的重量增加，動力也得增加。
動力增加，就意味著需要更多電池。
而裝更多電池，又意味著飛機更重，需要更多動力來驅動….
你看這個死衚衕。
Only when the power is equal to the weight of the aircraft can it fly.
So if the weight of the aircraft increases, so does the power.
More power means more batteries are needed.
And loading more batteries means that the aircraft is heavier and needs more power to drive.
Look at this impasse.
更慘的是，普通飛機消耗的燃料越多，飛機就越輕。但電動飛機無論飛多久，電池還是那麼重。所以，如果電池能量密度不提升，電動飛機就沒法飛得遠。
To make matters worse, the more fuel an ordinary aircraft consumes, the lighter it will be, while no matter how long the electric aircraft flies, the battery is still so heavy. Therefore, if the battery energy density is not increased, the electric aircraft will not be able to fly far.
不過，懂行的同學可能會說：即使飛不了長途，電動飛機還是有不少應用場景的呀，比如作為觀光飛機、駕駛學員練手的小飛機啥的。
However, some knowledgeable people may say: even if it can't fly long distances, there are still many application scenarios, such as sightseeing aircraft and small aircraft for trainees to practice.
沒錯！數據顯示，一架飛行學員練手的燃油小飛機，每次飛一小時的運營成本是45美金。而電動小飛機，每小時只需1美金，都快比騎共享單車便宜了。這個價格差，讓電動飛機在這個細分領域很有戲的樣子。
That's right! Data shows that the operating cost of a small fueled aircraft used for training is $45 per hour, while a small electric aircraft costs only $1 an hour, which is almost cheaper than a shared bike. This price difference makes electric aircraft very promising in this subdivision.
古今中外，大多技術的騰飛，不都是從細分領域做起的嗎，那為什麼電動飛機在這種自己擅長的細分領域，也無法開花結果呢？
At all times and in all over the world, most of the successful technologies start from the market segments, so why cannot electric aircraft blossom and bear fruit in the subdivision field that it is good at?
原因就是我今天要分享的第二點：
The reason is the second point I want to share today:
02 政策上，領證好比登天難
In policy, it is so difficult to get a certification
電動飛機想試飛或者運營，都要拿資格證，說白了，就是要通過一系列苛嚴的測試，去證明飛機上每一個零部件都是安全的。其中最魔鬼的測試，就是“電池不著火測試”。
If you want to test flight or operate an electric aircraft, you have to get a certification. To put it bluntly, you have to pass a series of stringent tests to prove that every part of the aircraft is safe, among which the most devilish one is the "battery will not fire" test.
相關部門解釋說：一輛電動汽車萬一自燃了，你還能靠邊停，下車逃生。但一架電動客機在空中著火，就沒救了。因此，政府必須對飛機的監管力度和可靠性要求，開啟最高標準。
The relevant department explains: if an electric car ignites spontaneously, you can pull over and get out of the car to escape. However, once an electric passenger plane catches fire in the air, it is hopeless. Therefore, the governments must set the highest standards for the supervision and reliability of aircraft.
美國已經算是對飛行限制相對寬鬆的國家， 但即使在那兒，一架電動飛機光去把安全測試的流程走一遍，就需要好幾年。而這個時長，都夠新一代電池技術問世了。也就是說，當你拿到許可證時，這架飛機在技術層面已經out了。
The United States is considered a country with relatively loose flight restrictions, but even there, it takes years for an electric aircraft to go through the safety test process. The time is long enough for a new generation of battery technology to come out. In other words, by the time you get the certification, the aircraft is already technically out.
一些公司為了解決這個問題，想了個捷徑。他們放棄從0開始造電動飛機，而選擇拿燃油飛機直接改造，把機上的燃油系統替換成電機和電池。這麼做，確實能逃過些測試，省些時間，但這種用御姐的身體裝小可愛靈魂的方法，顯然是違和的。
Some companies have come up with a shortcut to solve this problem, that is, instead of producing an electric aircraft from the very beginning, they transform the fueled aircraft directly, replacing its fuel system with electrical machinery and batteries. In doing so, they can indeed escape some tests and save some time, but this method of pretending a little cute soul with a domineering lady's body is obviously against the rules.
鋰電池的能量密度，只有噴氣燃料的1/40。這麼硬替換，電池和電機還哪來的優勢？實測它們的續航能力，撐死也只能達到燃油飛機的1/20。
The energy density of lithium batteries is only 1/40 of that of jet fuel. With such a replacement, how can batteries and electrical machinery have any advantages? According to the test, their endurance can only at best reach the 1/20 of a fueled aircraft.
相比電動飛機，電動汽車的命實在太好了！這十年裡，不但國家給錢補貼，還打出了綠牌扶持這張王炸來實力捧場。更重要的是，電動汽車行業還有像馬斯克、李想、李斌這樣的大佬all in投資創業。
Compared with the electric aircraft, the fate of the electric car is so good! Over the past ten years, the countries have not only given money subsidies but also provided the shocking green-card-support to boost it influentially. More importantly, the electric car industry possesses super bosses like Musk, Li Xiang, and Li Bin who have been all in to start their own businesses.
這也把我們帶到了今天要聊的最後一點：
This brings us to the last point we're going to talk about:
03 超級大佬沒翻牌
The super bosses are not interested in it.
我剛寫完了一本有關馬斯克的書。在書裡，我有提到電動汽車總是在和電動飛機搶佔資源，包括搶佔大佬的投資。
I just finished writing a book about Musk, in which I have mentioned that electric cars always compete with electric aircraft for resources, including the investment of super bosses.
2003年，硅谷的技術大牛J.B.Straubel認識了金主馬斯克，想讓他投資自己的電動飛機項目。馬斯克當初也有動心，但卻始終下不了決心。最後陰差陽錯，兩人決定聯手大搞電動汽車，也因此有了特斯拉，掀起一場電動汽車革命。
In 2003, the tech giant J.B.Straubel of Silicon Valley met Musk and expected Musk to invest in his electric aircraft project. Musk was tempted at the beginning, but he couldn't make up his mind. In the end, accidentally, the two decided to join hands to develop electric cars, so there was Tesla, setting off an electric car revolution.
航天愛好者會問：如果當時他倆選擇扶持電動飛機，又會怎麼樣? 是不是富人現在預訂的不是Roadster，而是電動直升機啦？
Space enthusiasts may ask: what if they chose to support electric aircraft at that time? If so, will the riches book electric helicopters instead of Roadster now?
有句話說得好：大佬推動科技，歷史成就英雄。一項技術的騰飛與應用，並不是自然而然的，而是
由經濟、政治、文化和“行業巨人”等多個維度產生化學反應後定性的。There is a good saying: super bosses promote science and technology, and history makes heroes. The success of technology and its application is not accidental but determined by chemical reactions in many dimensions, including economy, politics, culture, ”industry giants“ and so on.
比如說二戰時期的圖靈。如果沒有英德大戰這個畸形的舞臺，圖靈超越時代的天才，還能有用武之地嗎？計算機科學的基礎，還能那麼快被奠定嗎？人工智能的發展，還能提前大半個世紀被他預見嗎？
Like Turing during World War II, without the abnormal stage of the war between England and Germany, would Turing have a chance to display his talents beyond the time? Could the foundation of computer science be laid so quickly? Could the development of artificial intelligence be foreseen more than half a century in advance?
很多時候，我們都錯以為：科技和進步一定會逐年提升。但其實，只有當大佬願意慷慨解囊，政策到位，天才有施展的舞臺，還有更多人願意在上下游為之付出巨大努力後，一項技術才能發展起來。
Most often, we mistakenly think that science and technology and progress are bound to improve year by year. But in fact, technology can be developed only when the super bosses donate generously, the policy is in place, the genius has a stage, and people are willing to make great efforts upstream and downstream.
在電動飛機這個問題上，無論是電池技術的瓶頸，還是政策和大佬資源上的不傾斜，都讓它的發展難上加難。但儘管如此，中外還是有不少狂熱從業者，在為電動飛機傾注一生。
On the issue of electric aircraft, the bottleneck of battery technology and the restrictive policy and resources make its development even more difficult. In spite of this, there are still many enthusiastic practitioners all over the world devoting their lives to electric aircraft.
結合歷史，去看一次次技術大突破，你會發現：每項創新科技，都遵循著相似的規律。無論是懷特兄弟造的第一架飛機，奔馳先生造的第一輛現代汽車，還是現在的電動飛機、無人駕駛技術等等，全部都要經歷這個甘地總結的四部曲：
If you look back the major technological breakthroughs in history, you will find that every innovative technology follows a similar law. The first plane made by White Brothers, the first modern car made by Mr. Mercedes-Benz, the current electric aircraft, autonomous driving, and so on, all these have to go through the four stages summed up by Gandhi:
First they ignore you (首先，他們無視你)
Then they laugh at you （接著，他們嘲諷你）
Then they fight you （然後，他們要打敗你）
Then you win（最後，你獲得勝利）
很明顯，電動飛機現在還處於第一階段，路漫漫其修遠兮。我想以人類第一次成功把飛機送上天的片段，作為這個視頻的結尾。
The electric aircraft, obviously, is still in the first stage and the journey is long. I want to end this video with the first successful flight of a human aircraft into the sky.
1903年，懷特兄弟手工造的飛機，實現了第一次離地，飛行時間沒撐到一分鐘。即便這個開場有點慫，過了好些年世界大戰時，飛機已經可以飛得很溜了。又過了一段時間，就已經可以越洋了。而現在，飛機飛十幾個小時，也毫無壓力。
In 1903, the handmade aircraft made by White Brothers left the ground for the first time, but the flight time did not last for a minute. Even though it was imperfect at the beginning, the aircraft was able to fly very smoothly during the world war after many years and was able to cross the ocean after another period. Now, it can fly for more than ten hours easily.
屬於我們這個時代的高新玩意兒，也一定會經歷相似的慫開場。電動飛機何時能大規模量產，最終能否掀起歷史上第三次航空革命？值得我們拭目以待。
The high-tech things in our time always start with a similar imperfect trying. When will the electric aircraft be mass-produced and will it eventually set off the third aviation revolution? It's worth waiting for.
在之後的一系列視頻裡，我會分析可控核聚變、人造子宮等貌似能改變人類進程，卻始終還沒發展起來的硬核科技，記得三連關注。
In this series of videos, I will analyze some hardcore technologies that seem to change the human process but have not yet developed, such as controllable nuclear fusion and artificial ovary. Don't forget to give me a "LIKE" and subscribe to my channel.
我是電動Emma, 左手科技，右手文藝，我們下回再見。
I am Electric Emma, technology one side, literature and art the other side, see you next time.
