我是小丹尼，談車說科技，今天聊聊電動車，但不是我來講，而是電動車圈的劍橋學霸……Emma
This is Danny, I talk about tech and cars. Today, our focus is on electric cars, but I'm not the speaker, let's have a Cambridge graduate from the EV circle... Emma.
我是一個特斯拉老車主、老韭菜。沒人比我們這種老韭菜更瞭解電動汽車的槽點：價格高、有續航焦慮、還和我的手機一樣，擔心電池折損問題。一旦剁手，還不保值。
I‘ve been a loyal Tesla owner for a while, and I guess nobody knows the disadvantages of the EV more than owners like me. The EV is of high price but short battery life. And the battery itself depreciates as fast as that of my phone. It costs a lot to buy a car but has littel added value.
既然問題那麼多，為什麼政府還要各種補貼，大力扶持電動汽車呢？真是因為錢多人傻嗎？
There're so many problems of the EV, but why the government offers all kinds of subsidies to support the development of the EV? Is it really a stupid and money-wasting policy?
我是DannyData的Emma, 今天開啟耿直boy模式，看破也說破政府扶持電動車背後的隱藏邏輯！
I'm Emma from DannyData. Today I'll talk straight about the hidden logic behind government support for electric vehicles!
每個國家在支持電動車時，都愛把“環保”掛嘴邊。但恐怕只有挪威這種多金、又沒本土汽車工業的國家，才能比較單純地擁抱環保。
Every country likes to talk about "environmental protection" when it comes to supporting electric vehicles. But I'm afraid that only a country like Norway, which is rich enough but has no local auto industry, can embrace the environment more simply.
對於中、美、德國這種工業大國來說，政府支持電動車的邏輯，才不會too young too simple。
For industrial powers like China, the US and Germany, the logic of government support for electric cars is not "too young too simple".
這些政府大力扶持電動車，背後都有三大動機：經濟風險大轉移、產業追趕我最牛、利用能源666。
There are three main motives behind all of these government efforts to support electric vehicles: big shift in economic risk, fierce industry competition, and efficient energy use.
先說第一點，經濟風險轉移。
Let's talk about shifting economic risk first.
評判一個國家的實力，通常看五個領域：政治、經濟、科技、軍事和文化。而經濟實力，是一切的基礎。
Five aspects are often involved when evaluating a country's strength. They are politics, economy, science and technology, military and culture. Among them, economic strength is the basis of everything.
造成經濟增長放緩的因素很多，其中一個重磅原因，就是 “可利用能源的體量”。
There are many factors that contribute to the slowdown in economic growth, and one that weighs heavily is the volume of available energy.
重複一遍：可利用能源的體量。
Repeat: the volume of available energy.
拿數據一看，就會發現：對於GDP，能源實在太重要了！
Take a look at the data and you'll see: energy is extremely important for GDP!
從這個模型能明顯看出，可用能源體量和世界GDP的每年增長趨勢保持一致。所以經濟學家才會提出，GDP和可用能源，是成正比的。可用能源越多，GDP就越猛。
It is obvious from this model that the volume of available energy is consistent with the annual growth trend of world GDP. That's why economists propose that GDP and the available energy, are proportional. The more energy available, the more GDP will be generated.
為什麼像沙特、挪威這種沒有工業的小國，能成為超級土豪國呢？正是因為人家家裡有礦，能源多多。
Why is it that small countries like Saudi Arabia and Norway, having no industry, can be super-duper rich? It's because they have mines and lots of energy.
在石油問題上，這個趨勢更加明顯。石油是最重要的能源之一。世界上98%的運輸系統，都依賴石油。我們可以看到，石油和GDP的增減趨勢，是非常同步的。可用石油體量，直接影響著GDP, 影響著世界經濟。
In the case of oil, this trend is even more pronounced. Oil is one of the most important energy sources. 98% of the world's transportation system depends on oil. We can see that oil and GDP are increasing and decreasing in a very synchronized fashion. The volume of available oil has a direct impact on GDP and on the world economy.
一旦石油供應出了問題，經濟必然會受牽連。
When there's a huge change in the oil supply chain, the economy must be affected.
所以新能源車，特別是電動車，最重要的貢獻，不是環保，而是減少我們的交通和經濟對石油的依賴。
Therefore, the most crucial contribution of electric cars is not environmental protection, but it helps us decrease the dependence of the world economy on oil supply.
中國政府從2010年開始扶持新能源車的一大動機，就是想把雞蛋多放幾個籃子，降低石油黑天鵝事件對中國經濟帶來的衝擊。
The motivation behind the Chinese government's support in EV since 2010 is to decrease the potential impact of the oil market on the Chinese economy. Put our eggs in different baskets.
那你可能會問，新能源也不只有車呀，新能源車也不只有純電車呀，為啥要重點扶持它呢？
Maybe you will ask, cars must not be the only sources that use new energy; there are many new energy cars besides electric cars. Why does the government focusing on supporting electric cars?
我們接著說第二點：產業追趕 。
That brings us to our second point: industry trends.
雖然我是性別女，對汽車行業還是有點懂的。汽車產業有兩個規律：
As a female, I've investigated my time in the car industry. There are two main rules:
1）少數玩家負責造車，全球百姓負責消費。
1) Only a few produce the car, while everyone else pays for it.
2）汽車產業對國家非常重要。因為汽車是唯一一個單價和銷量都足夠高的民用工業品，既能帶動上下游的產業發展、還能拉高就業率和稅收，提升國家科技水平和GDP含金量，是不是很牛？所以大國強國，都想在“汽車”領域爭第一。
2) The car industry is very important to every country because it is the only industry that maintains a high price and a high demand national wide. It not only drives businesses from upstream and downstream but also can increase taxations and employment rate. Moreover, it can even bring quality of GDP and technology to the next level. Aren't electric cars fantastic? So all large strong countries want to become world leaders in the car industry.
政府在考慮扶植本國汽車產業時，思考的肯定不止是交通出行這麼簡單，而是拉動整個產業發展。
When the government supports electric cars, it considers the whole industry and ecosystem.
說到這，也來聊下中國汽車與經濟的發展史: 當我們驅逐了八國聯軍，再經歷內戰之後，經濟和科技基礎是相當薄弱的。
Speaking of which, let's talk about the history and transformation of Chinese economic and car industry. After expelling the Eight-Power Allied and going through the Civil War, the economic and technological foundation of China was pretty weak.
1949年成立新中國，首先推出的交通商品不是汽車，而是自行車，這是沒錢的尷尬。
When modern China founded in 1949, the first product of consumer transportation is not the car but the bicycle.
到了80年代開始進入“私家車”時代時，距離卡爾-奔馳先生髮明的第一輛現代汽車，已經快100年了。我們要承認起步晚就會差距明顯，這就像即使是天才如愛因斯坦，他3歲的智商也無法和一個高中學渣相比。
The whole country finally started driving private cars in the 80s, but that is 100 years from when the first Bench is invented. Therefore, we must admit that we are really behind in the car industry. Even it Einstein, we can't compare his knowledge to high school kids when he is only three years old.
從80年代到現在40年間，中國汽車工業一直試圖追趕強國。
Since then for the next 40 years, the Chinese car industry has been working hard investigating to catch up with other large car production countries.
現在，雖然我們擁有了自己的品牌，有了獨立組裝汽車的能力，也掌握了發動機和變速箱的研發和製造技術，但和德美日比，還是差距不小，都是起步太晚的錯！
Now that we have our own brand and factories. We can make our own cars and own technology. But comparing to Germany, America, and Japan, we are still quite behind. This is all due to the fact that we begin too late!
如果賽道不變，根本沒法超車。
There is no way to overtake without changing the track.
這時，神轉折來了！從汽油車向新能源車的技術轉型，為中國提供了一次百年一遇的追趕機會。在利用技術切換的窗口期實現彎道超車方面，我們中國一向牛掰。高速鐵路和互聯網就是最好的例子。
At this time, an exciting turn in this situation came! The technological transformation from gasoline vehicles to new energy vehicles has given China a chance to catch up once every 100 years. In the window phase of technology switching, we have always been good at overtaking in corners. What we did on high-speed rail and the Internet are the best examples to prove it.
無論是中國在普通鐵路向高鐵轉化的窗口，還是在PC互聯網向移動互聯網切換的窗口，我們都以龐大的市場規模為槓桿，撬動了相關產業鏈的爆發，完美實現彎道超車。
Whether it is China's window phase for conversion from the ordinary railway to high-speed rail, or switching from PC Internet to mobile Internet, we have leveraged the considerable market size to leverage the outbreak of the relevant industrial chain and perfectly achieve overtaking in corners.
對於汽車行業來說，中國還想這麼玩一把。靠切換賽道、扶持整車品牌，謀劃一個與移動互聯網產業相似的奇蹟。
For the automotive industry, China wants to do this again. By switching tracks and supporting vehicle brands. They planned a miracle similar to the mobile Internet industry.
這也把我們帶進了我想分享的第三點。
That also brings us to the third point I want to share with you.
為什麼政府要把重心放在電動汽車上，而不是別的新能源車技術呢？
Why should the government focus on electric vehicles instead of other new energy vehicle technologies?
由於利益考量不同，在很多事情上，中、美、歐洲都很難達成共識。但在電動車這個問題上，各方立場卻神同步：大家都想發展電動車。
Due to different interest considerations, it is difficult for China, the United States, and Europe to reach consensus on many issues. On the topic of electric vehicles, all parties' positions are synchronized: everyone wants to develop electric vehicles.
中國從2010年起, 就大力推電動汽車了，給出過單輛車近10萬元的補貼，北上廣還打出了綠牌扶持這張王炸。
Since 2010, China has vigorously promoted electric vehicles and has given a subsidy about 100,000 RMB per vehicle. Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou also issued green plates to support this Joker Bomb.
在歐洲，白左國挪威和丹麥已宣佈在2025年禁售所有的傳統燃油車。美國比較前衛的加州也很拼，準備在2030年做到這一點。
In Europe, the white-left countries Norway and Denmark, have announced that they banned the sale of all traditional fuel vehicles in 2025. California, which is a more modern state in the United States, is also preparing to do that in 2030.
明明新能源車還有混動車啥的呀，為什麼唯獨純電車最受政府青睞呢？
Why are pure electric vehicles most popular with the government rather than hybrid vehicles included in new energy vehicles?
背後其實有兩大原因。
There are two main reasons behind it.
第一個原因：從能源的角度看，是因為很多國家都缺油不缺電。
First, from the energy perspective, many countries lack oil but not electricity.
比如我們中國就擁有規模龐大的煤炭，可以通過火電廠轉化為電能。另外，中國的水電、風電、和核電量也是全球Number 1。
For example, China has huge reserves of coal, which can be converted into electrical energy through thermal power stations. In addition, China's hydropower, wind and nuclear power production is the global top one respectively.
多電少油的現狀，不難讓政府想到對需求端進行改革，以適應我國供應端的優勢。需求端到底有什麼東西，可以大幅減少對石油的消費，增加電能的消費呢？很明顯，最佳答案不在混動車，而在電動車。
The current situation of more electricity and inadequate oil makes the government turn to the reform on the demand side to match advantages of our supply side. Is there anything on the demand side that can greatly reduce the consumption of oil and increase the consumption of electricity? Obviously, the best answer is not the hybrid car but the electric car.
另外，中、美、德國支持純電車，還有另一個不可言說的原因——日本車企。
There is another underlying reason why China, the US and Germany promote the development of pure electric vehicles —— Japanese car companies.
混動車被不少人認為是燃油車向純電車轉變的一個過渡技術。豐田早在1997年就開始對這個技術進行商業化了。這些年的技術積累，讓日本車企有非常成熟的混動技術，而且價格美麗。2019年在中國新推出的豐田雷凌，混動版只比燃油版貴1.1萬元，難怪越來越多人會買這種低油耗產品。
The hybrid car is considered by many people as a transitional technology from fuel cars to pure electric cars. Toyota started commercializing this technology as early as 1997. The accumulation of technology over the years contributes to mature hybrid technology and attractive prices for Japanese car companies. The hybrid version of the new Toyota Levin, launched in China in 2019, costs only 11,000 yuan more than the fuel version. No wonder why more and more people are willing to buy this kind of low-fuel-consumption product.
戰略競爭中，凡是敵方支持的，我們就要反對。
In strategic competition, we must oppose everything proposed by the enemy.
對於汽車行業這種投資量大、產業鏈長的行業來說，更是如此。因為一步領先，就容易步步領先。
This is especially true to the automotive industry, which requires large investment and has a long industrial chain. Because one step ahead, every subsequent step is easier to lead.
日本在混動技術深耕了20多年，相關專利幾乎都被它壟斷了。所以大部分中、美、德國車企，都非常機智地跳過了日本人的優勢區，直接瞄準純電動市場。這個想法讓三方一拍即合，共同開闢電動市場，孤立日本技術，讓日本隊酸出一樹檸檬。
Japan's car company has been working on hybrid technology deeply for more than 20 years, and related patents are almost monopolized by them. Therefore, most Chinese, American and German car companies have wisely keep away from the hybrid vehicles market where Japanese have advantages in and directly aimed at the pure electric vehicles market. The three parties collaborate on this idea immediately, jointly open up the electric market, isolate the Japanese hybrid technology and make Japanese team jealous.
最後來做個總結，電動汽車槽點多多，為什麼政府還要扶持？
Finally, let's make a summary of why is the Chinese government still supporting the development of electric vehicles despite all the complaints about the products.
一是因為中國需要降低對石油的依賴，轉移經濟風險；
First, China needs to reduce its dependence on petroleum to shift economic risks;
二是汽車產業對國家非常重要，電動汽車是實現彎道超車的好機會；
Second, the automobile industry is very important to the country, and the electric vehicle represents an excellent opportunity for China to overtake other countries;
另外，中國多電少油的能源現狀，也讓電動汽車成為重點扶持對象。
In addition, China's status quo of more electricity and less petroleum forces the government to view electric vehicles as one of the key targets for support.
雖然我很愛電動車，但不能否認，電動車它就是個新物種，性能方面的亮點突出，但續航和穩定性仍然和燃油車沒法比，因此綜合產品力也有限。政府的扶持，能讓電動車從0到1快速發展起來，但一旦政策斷奶，電動汽車還能活下來嗎？
Although I love electric cars very much, I can’t deny that the battery life and stability of electric cars are still incomparable with fuel cars despite their outstanding performance highlights. As such, the overall product attractiveness of EVs is limited. It’s true that the government's support promotes the rapid development of electric vehicles from 0 to 1, but once the policy is weaned, can they actually survive?
未來真正影響汽車行業的殺手技術，一定是自動駕駛。無論是特斯拉、蔚來這些汽車新勢力，還是谷歌、百度這種互聯網巨頭、亦或是通用豐田等傳統車企，都盯上了自動駕駛，在這個領域瘋狂砸錢研發。
In the future, the key technology that will really affect the automotive industry will be autonomous driving. Plenty of foresighted companies are all making huge investments in the research and development of this technology. These companies include new automobile forces such as Tesla and Nio, Internet giants like Google and Baidu, and traditional automobile giants like GM and Toyota.
對於電動車來說，掌握“三電”技術只是預選賽，自動駕駛才是真正的戰場。你們想聽我聊聊自動駕駛嗎？
For electric vehicles, mastering the "three electrics" technology is only a prerequisite, and the autonomous driving will be the real battlefield. Are you interested to hear more about it? Don't forget to click the like button and subscribe to the channel.
我是Emma, 為你深扒科技背後的十萬個為什麼。我們下回再見。
I’m Emma, I will dig deep into the "why" of the tech world for you. See you next time.
文稿/配音：Emma
剪輯/視覺：趙忠彥、呂曉彬、Cathy、司佳
翻譯：Xuyang、嘉瑤、楊墨、韓子菲、施震
出品人：DannyData
排版：Xuyang
