译者 王为
文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明
WTI crude oil futures prices fell below zero because of low liquidity and limited available storage
By the Energy Information Agency
On Monday, April 20, 2020, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil front-month futures prices fell below zero dollars per barrel (b)—at one point, trading at -$40.32/b (Figure 1)—and remained below zero for part of the following trading day. Monday marked the first time the price for the WTI futures contract fell below zero since trading began in 1983. Negative prices in commodity markets are very rare, but when they occur they typically indicate high transactions costs and significant infrastructure constraints. In this case, the WTI front-month futures contract was for May 2020 delivery, and the contract was set to expire on April 21, 2020. Market participants that hold WTI futures contracts to expiration must take physical delivery of WTI crude oil in Cushing, Oklahoma. Typically, most market participants close any futures contracts ahead of expiration through cash settlement in order to avoid taking physical delivery, and only about 1% of contracts are physically settled. The extreme market events of April 20 and April 21 were driven by several factors, including the inability of contract holders to find other market participants to sell the futures contracts. In addition, in this case, the scarcity of available crude oil storage meant several market participants could not take physical delivery at expiration and resorted to selling their futures contracts at negative prices, in effect paying a counterparty to take hold of the contracts.
2020年4月20日，周一，在纽约商品交易所挂牌的西德克萨斯轻质原油期货近月合约的报价跌破0美元/桶，并一度跌至-40.32美元,见图1，并在当日剩下的交易时段里保持在负值区间内，周一是西德克萨斯轻质原油期货的合约自1983年开始挂牌交易以来报价首度跌破零。大宗商品的价格出现负值是极其罕见的现象，但这种现象一旦出现通常意味着大宗商品的交易成本已经涨得很高并且与交易相关的基础设施出现了明显的短缺。这里所说的西德克萨斯轻质原油期货的近月合约是指2020年5月份交割的合约，该合约的最后一个交易日是4月21日。持仓即将到期交割的原油期货合约的市场人士必须在俄克拉荷马州的Cushing接手西德克萨斯轻质原油期货的现货。一般来讲，大多数市场人士会在期货合约即将交割之前平仓手中持有的多头仓位，也就是进行现金清算，这样就不必进行实物交割，根据惯例通常只有1%的期货合约会通过实物交割的方式进行清算。4月20日和21日原油期货市场上的极端波动来自于几个因素，持仓者找不到交易对手进行平盘也是其中之一。此外，就这个案例本身来讲，由于储油能力短缺，一些市场人士无法在交割日接货，最后不得不以跌破零的价格将手中的期货合约卖掉，这实际上是向交易对手支付了一笔费用以让对手接盘这些期货合约所代表的仓位。
Crude oil and other commodities are traded on futures markets, which are financial exchanges that market participants use to manage risk in a variety of businesses, including but not limited to, upstream crude oil production, refining, shipping, and wealth management. Because they can be delivered physically, prices for WTI futures contracts, for the most part, converge with spot market prices after expiration. The spot market reflects cash transactions for physical buying and selling of the underlying commodity. For more information on the interaction between physical commodity markets and financial markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides explanations and updated material on its web page What Drives Crude Oil Prices?
大宗商品现货市场的报价体现的是与买卖大宗商品的现货有关的现金交易成本。为了解大宗商品的现货市场和期货市场之间的互动关系，美国能源信息署在其主页上的一篇题为“What Drives Crude Oil Prices?”的文章中做了详细解读并更新了相关信息。
The terms and conditions contained in the settlement procedures of the May 2020 WTI contract as stipulated by CME Group—which owns and operates the NYMEX on which the contract is traded—are key to understanding the recent price activity. On expiration, the holder of a WTI contract has two options to meet the contract's physical delivery requirement. First, up until 2:00 p.m. on the business day following the expiration date, a contract holder can settle the position by entering into an Exchange for Physical (EFP) contract with a counterparty, which transfers the contract to a counterparty in exchange for cash or other futures contracts with later expirations. Second, settlement can also occur if a contract holder takes physical delivery of the crude oil. As per the NYMEX contract's specifications, delivery of the physical crude oil volumes must occur at a pipeline or storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, with pipeline access to Enterprise Product Partner’s crude oil terminal or Enbridge Inc.'s crude oil terminal. This delivery must also occur within a specific time, which is currently set no earlier than the first calendar day of the contract month and no later than the month's last calendar day.
2020年5月份交割的西德克萨斯轻质原油期货合约的结算过程中适用的条款和标准是芝加哥商品交易所指定的，纽约商品交易所也是芝加哥商品交易所旗下的交易场所，了解这些交割条款对于搞清楚近期原油期货价格的大幅波动至关重要。在期货合约到期后，西德克萨斯轻质原油期货合约的持有人可以有两个选择来达到实物交割所需要的条件：一、在期货合约到期日之后第一个交易日的下午2点，合约持有人可进入芝加哥商品交易所的实物交割程序EFP与交易对手进行实物交割，把期货合约交付给对手方，对手方则支付现金或交付其他未到交割月份的期货合约。二、如果合约持有人选择接收原油现货，也有交割程序要走。根据纽约商品交易所的合约规定，原油现货的交割必须在俄克拉荷马州的Cushing的石油输送管道或存储设施中完成，输送管道通向Enterprise Product Partner’ 或Enbridge Inc.的原油终端(Enterprise Product Partner’h和Enbridge Inc.均为美国大型的石油管道运营商
)。现货交割还必须在特定时间内完成，最新的规定是不早于合约月份第一个日历日且不得晚于最后一个日历日。Under normal conditions, taking delivery of crude oil at Cushing is straightforward. Buyers can have the oil transferred into a storage facility or pipeline that they own or lease. Or, with the seller's consent, they can transfer ownership of the crude oil somewhere else in the pipeline and storage system. Normal physical settlement has been disrupted, however, by the recent decline in the availability of uncommitted crude oil storage capacity. Because of the impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on economic activity and the consumption of petroleum products, U.S. consumption of crude oil and petroleum products has sharply declined. As of the week ending April 17, U.S. refinery runs fell to 12.8 million barrels per day (b/d), 4.1 million b/d (24%) lower than the same time last year.
在正常情况下，在Cushing交割原油没啥复杂的。买家将原油运到自备或租来的储油设施或石油运输管道内，或者征得卖家同意后将储油设施或石油运输管道内的石油转卖他人。但由于近期储油设施出现紧缺，正常的实物交割程序无法顺利进行。因为新冠疫情对经济活动和石油制品的消费产生了不利影响，美国原油和石油制品的消费大幅下滑。截止到4月17日那一周，美国日石油加工量跌至1280万桶，比去年同期少了410万桶，降幅为24%。
As a result of this extreme demand shock, excess imported and domestically-produced crude oil volumes have been placed into storage. Crude oil storage facilities at Cushing have 76 million barrels of working storage capacity, of which 60 million barrels (76% after accounting for pipeline fill and stocks in transit) were filled as of April 17 (Figure 2). Although Cushing has physically unfilled storage available, some of this physically unfilled storage is likely to have already been leased or otherwise committed, limiting the uncommitted storage available for contract holders without pre-existing arrangements. In this case, these contract holders would likely have to pay much higher rates to storage operators that have uncommitted space available.
在需求受到极端冲击的影响下，多余的进口和国产原油进入库存。Cushing 当地能储存7600万桶的原油，其中在刨除了管道内及转运过程中的占用部分外，总库容的76%即相当于6000万桶的存储能力已在4月17日之前被占用，见图2。Cushing当地还有一些储油设施尚留有余地，但其中一些可能已经被预定或租了出去，措手不及的期货合约持有人无法租到储油设施。这种情况下，期货合约持有人可能会不得不支付很高的代价给尚有余力向外出租的油库经营商。
Although data for storage costs are limited, the increased demand for storage has likely placed significant upward pressure on crude oil storage costs. Trade press reports of high on-land storage costs, high rates for crude oil maritime shipping (which can be used as an alternative to on-shore storage), and high levels of contango (when near-term futures prices are lower than longer-dated ones) all reflect an increase in storage costs since early March 2020. The inability of some market participants to take physical delivery meant that they had to settle the May 2020 WTI contract financially by selling the contract to another market participant. As a result, owners of the May 2020 WTI futures contract most likely had to sell at lower prices to exit their contracts and avoid physical settlement. In this extreme market environment, several participants had to sell at negative prices—that is, pay the other party to take hold of the contract before expiration.
尽管对储油成本方面的信息知之不多，但对储油设施的需求出现增加有可能会给原油储藏成本带来相当大的上涨压力。陆地储油成本的走高，可作为陆上储油设施备份的海上储油设施的费用高涨，即远期油价之间的升水增加均导致2020年3月初以来储油成本出现上涨。一些市场人士在实物交割遇到困难意味着必须对5月份到期的西德克萨斯轻质原油期货合约采取现金交割的方式，也就是把手中的期货合约卖给交易对手。结果是，西德克萨斯轻质原油期货5月合约的持有者非常有可能被迫以低价平掉期货合约以避免实物交割。在这种极端的市场环境中，一些市场参与者不得不以低于零的价格卖掉期货合约，也就是在合约到期之前倒贴交易对手让其接受自己手中的期货合约。
Theoretically, a contract holder could choose or be forced to fail to take physical delivery of the crude oil cargo, although doing so is likely to be costly. The specific costs associated with a failure to accept physical delivery depend on the specific contractual arrangements entered into by the futures contract holder and the Futures Commission Merchant (FCM)—the entity responsible for executing the buying and selling of futures contracts on behalf of a client. The possible costs could include a combination of direct monetary penalties, reputational consequences, the liquidation of the collateral deposited by the client in the margin account with the FCM, the revocation of trading privileges, and the costs of any legal settlements resulting from the breach of contractual obligations. As a result, holders of expired contracts obligated to take physical settlement rarely fail to take delivery.
理论上讲，期货合约的持有者主动选择或被迫选择不实物交割原油，尽管这样做可能会代价高昂。不进行实物交割所导致的成本具体是多少要取决于期货合约的持有者和代表客户对期货合约进行买卖的结算会员经纪商之间的合约是如何约定。违约不交割现货的损失可能包括对违约方进行现金罚款，声誉损失以及客户在结算会员经纪商的保证金账户内存缴的保证金被没收，交易资质被废以及违法合约约定导致的法律诉讼费用。因此，期货合约到期后有义务进行实物交割的交易方很少会选择不进行实物交割。
Taken together, these factors suggest that the phenomenon of negative WTI prices could be confined to the financial market, with few physical market participants paying negative prices. The positive pricing of other crude oil benchmarks (with the Brent contract for June 2020 delivery closing at $19.33/b on April 21), positive prices for longer-dated WTI prices, and positive spot prices for other U.S. crude oils suggest that the recent price action was predominantly driven by the timing of the May 2020 contract expiration. The availability of storage in Cushing will remain an issue in the coming weeks, however, and could still result in volatile price movements in the June WTI futures contract or other U.S. crude oil spot prices that face limited storage options. EIA will continue to monitor these market developments.
综上所述，以上这些因素表明西德克萨斯轻质原油期货5月合约价跌破零这一现象可能仅存在于金融市场上，因为现货市场的参与者几乎不可能支付负的油价。其他原油价格基准的报价（比如2020年6月份交割的布伦特原油期货合约的报价在4月21日为19.33美元/桶），西德克萨斯轻质原油期货远交割月份的合约价以及美国原油现货市场的报价均处于正值区间都说明近期油价的异常波动明显是受到西德克萨斯轻质原油期货5月合约到期过程中乱象丛生的影响。但在未来几周里，Cushing当地的储油能力将继续成为问题的关键，仍有可能会导致6月份交割的西德克萨斯轻质原油期货合约的报价或美国其他同样面临储油能力不足问题的现货原油市场的报价出现剧烈波动，美国能源信息署将继续关注后续的市场变动情况。
