What can the USA do to stop China from becoming the number one superpower?
美國怎麼才能阻止中國成為世界第一強國呢？
【美國知乎quora網貼翻譯】
Arman Siani, Engineer, Entrepreneur, Traveler
Answered Dec 24
Nothing really.
China is simply regaining its spot as the top dog of the world which it had held in the past before losing out to the West due to missing out on the industrial revolution.
譯文來源：Quora中文網 http://quora123.com/583.html
沒辦法。中國只是重回過去因錯過工業革命而輸給西方的世界領導地位。
The US can wage war against China although that’s very unlikely. In a conventional war, China would take a lot of damage, but so would the US. According to RAND estimates, China would lose 15–25 percent of its GDP in such a war while the US would lose 5–15 percent of its GDP, assuming the war was fought in 2015. But the GDP decline would facilitate a social crisis in the US and not in China, simply because the US government would be the aggressor and China would be the defender of such a useless war. And China would simply start rebuilding its economy all over again. And in a nuclear war, the US has a lot of nukes to destroy China but China has enough nukes to retaliate in kind and permanently cripple the US.
美國可以對中國發動戰爭啊，雖然這不大可能。在一場常規戰中，中國會遭受很大損失，美國也是。根據蘭德公司的預估，假設2015年爆發中美戰爭，中國GDP會減少15~25%，美國則會損失5~15%的GDP。GDP的下滑會助長美國的社會危機，而中國卻不會。這場戰爭，美國政府將是侵略者，中國是防禦者。中國將重建經濟。
要是爆發核戰，美國核武器足夠摧毀中國，但中國也有足夠的核武器以牙還牙，並永久地削弱美國。
Coming to the economy, it is true that China’s growth is slowing down. However, growth percent is calculated on previous years’ GDP which becomes the principle. So, a 5 percent growth in GDP for a base GDP of $18 trillion would be orders of magnitude higher than the 15 percent growth rate for a base GDP of $200 Billion. Besides, all nations experience slowing growth rate when the value is high enough. Therefore, declining growth rate, isn’t a problem. Now, does China’s economy have vulnerabilities and will it face an economic crisis at some point? Yes to both questions. But that doesn’t mean it would “decline”. All nations of any significant economic size have faced economic problems from time to time. That’s not really a problem.
說到經濟，中國的增長放緩了。然而增長的百分比是在前幾年GDP的基礎上計算的。基礎為18萬億的GDP以5%的速度增長，比基礎為2000億GDP的15%的增長要高出數量級。此外，當基數足夠高時，所有國家都會經歷增長的放緩。因此，增長率下降不是問題。
現在，中國經濟是否缺陷，是否會在某一個時刻面臨經濟危機呢？這兩個問題的答案是 肯定的。但不意味著它會“衰落”。所有的經濟大國都時不時面臨著經濟問題。這不是個問題。
Another argument people often make in opposition to Chinese rise is China’s low birth rate and America’s high birth rate and immigration. It is true that low birth rates cause economic problems, but those problems can be countered by increasing worker productivity. China’s worker productivity is already very low, meaning that China can change modest policies and use existing technologies to keep improving its productivity, and China doesn’t even need to be too innovative to raise worker productivity, even though they are productive.
人們認為中國不會崛起的另一個論據，即中國的低生育率，美國的高生育率和移民。對，低生育率引起經濟問題，但能通過提高工人生產率抵消。中國的工人生產率已經很低了，也就是說中國可以改變溫和政策，使用現有技術提高生產力。中國甚至不必過於創新就能提高工人生產率。
Again another argument is that China is not democratic and hence, is somehow “handicapped”. But that’s not the case. The correlation between the level of democracy and economic might is pretty much non-existent. All newly developed Asian nations (SK, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan) became rich while being under single party or military dictatorships. Economic development depends on meritocracy, law and order and robust institutions, and all of which can exist without the presence of democracy. Infact, Chinese people, to the tune of 80 percent support their government.
另一個說法是，中國不皿煮，所以有點“殘疾”。但事實並非如此。皿煮程度和經濟實力的相互關係幾乎不存在。所有新興亞洲發達國家在獨立政黨或軍事毒菜的統治下變得富裕。經濟發展取決於精英管理、法律、秩序以及健全的制度，這些都能在沒有皿煮的情況下存在。實際上，80%中國人民支持他們的政府。
