2020年，
很多人的命運註定會改變。
對於職場遇到困境的人們來說，
已經聽了幾年幣圈暴富故事了，
跳進區塊鏈，可以逆天改命嗎？
眼前兩條路：
要麼回老家，要麼搏一把。
或者像你這樣，
過著平靜而富足的生活，
偶爾也會被神奇的幣圈所吸引，
想象自己過著另一種更刺激的生活，
半夜輾轉反側，看著身旁熟睡的她，
你忍不住想對她說：
阿姨，我不想和你在一起了。
被幣安收入囊中的coinmarketcap，今年做了不少有意思的博客內容，而且還在頁面上強推，有點招徠新人的意思。比如最近推出的Crypto Titans系列訪談，採訪了很多業界老炮，幾乎對所有人都提了一個問題：
對想入行區塊鏈/加密貨幣的新人，
你有什麼想對他們說的？
我把他們對這個問題的回答都看了一遍，還挺有意思的，在這裡我重新編輯一下，分享給大家。我沒有精力和能力做全文翻譯，就把我感興趣的點簡單翻譯提煉一下，有的地方也添加了我的一些想法。大家一起看看，說得在不在理。
請注意，我這裡並不是原文的翻譯，如果需要理解被訪者的本意，請閱讀原文，所以我把關鍵部分的英文原文還是保留下來了，各位各取所需。
The best investment you can make is in yourself. Get intimate with the technology. Start contributing to projects that interest you.
Then, when crypto inevitably goes mainstream, you'll be in high demand for the experience and knowledge that you've accumulated. You should be skeptical of anything promising to make you a quick fortune.
第一位是CMC的創始人Brandon Chez，這位老闆挺神秘的，從來不露臉，他的回答是：
- 多投資自己
- 多熟悉技術
- 會來事，多向看好的項目做貢獻
- 苟住，等行業走向主流，大家就需要你了
- 暴富什麼的，別上當
第三條說得挺對的，這個行業的項目大都屬於草創階段，你主動去幫點什麼忙，別人會一直記著你的。像我以前接觸到的美團、小米的幾位早期員工，工號50以前的，就是還沒畢業就主動和這些公司套磁，積極、熱情加上合格的能力，給老闆和同事留下好印象，後來自然就蒸蒸日上坐上了更重要的位置。這麼做，好處是不用掏錢，花時間出力氣就行，壞處是，你碰到的老闆得是明白人，這個事前是不好判斷的。
My advice would be: do both.
For those who are looking to invest in crypto:
Do your own research before you make any investment decisions — don't simply follow others' investment advice.
Beware of the risks — crypto is a highly volatile asset class and it is common to bear greater investment losses.
For those who are seeking a career in crypto:
Compared with other industries, the crypto industry has more growth, disruption and uncertainty. So be ready for the challenges and risks.
趙總的意見比較老生常談，但真做到的也不多，尤其第二條：
- 既要買幣，也要在這個行業找份工作
- 自己研究自己的，不要聽別人的
- 做好心理準備，虧的比預想的要多
- 和其它行業相比，這個行業有更多的成長和挑戰，做好準備
It is a folly to be too early. I was a little too early in 2003 with a coin. You don't want to be researching the colonization of Pluto, it's too far fetched. We're not there yet, but we are right squarely dead on and center with crypto.
......
My big, big advice to people is do not see this as a get rich quick scheme. Do not turn into a trader. Do not get consumed by the financial aspect of things, where you sell tokens or you tell people to buy tokens.
......
A business of that kind, you’re fanning not the use, not the positive societal outcomes, not the positive productivity increases that really bring value to our lives. Instead, you’re trying to take money from Alice to give to Bob. That’s just the zero sum game. There is absolutely no value to be had.
康奈爾大學的教授Emin Gün Sirer，2003年就在研究POW的幣，還創辦了區塊鏈項目Ava Labs，而且是網紅
- 人類真正面對的大問題其實不多，面要解決經濟和商業上的『大問題』，區塊鏈正是解決當今『大問題』的一個工具，要有信心
- 做太早了不行，不要像我2003年就在研究一個幣，現在研究加密貨幣剛剛好
- 不要想著做交易暴富
- 沒有用途和社會價值的項目，是個零和遊戲
數字貨幣投資不全是『零和遊戲』，不能一棍子打死，就像教授說的，要看它如何使用，對社會有什麼意義。它可以是正和遊戲，還可以是負和遊戲。
My recommendation to anyone new to the crypto world is to experience it first hand. Don't just store your coins in exchanges like with stock brokers. Use the non-custodial wallets, properly keep the passphrases and learn the principles of brain wallets.
And begin to take some cryptos for jobs or favors! This is truly the new experience with the money of the virtual worlds, with freedom and privacy. Learn risk management, practice self-responsibility and self-accountability.
又是一位不露臉的，Sunny King是Peercoin, Primecoin和V SYSTEMS這些項目的創辦者，也是POS共識機制的發明人。他就強調風險：
- 要親身參與這個遊戲，不要依靠交易所，學著記住私鑰
- 學會管理風險，對自己負責，一切靠自己。
The advice I would give is, do it. Enter the industry
Cambridge University did a report of the industry in 2017, and they estimated something like 1,500 people worked full-time in a crypto.
It's tiny. It was tiny then, it's a little bit bigger now. To provide context, Yelp has around 6,000 employees — Yelp is multiple times the size of crypto.
Particularly for people who are early in their careers or are looking for a lot of opportunity, the unique feature that crypto offers is that there's almost nobody who has more experience than you, because there are very few people who've been working in crypto.
......
Over time, more and more people built that skill set, but there was this period where it was so new that there was nobody who had a decade of experience. There was almost nobody who had five years of experience, there were very few people who had two years of experience. I think that kind of opportunity exists in crypto today.
For somebody who's interested in crypto, I think it's a fantastic time to join the space.
Hunter Horsley是Bitwise的CEO，Bitwise去年的報告很剛，用數據推斷很多交易所在刷量，他給出的建議是儘早加入：
- 根據劍橋大學2017年的一項統計，全職在加密貨幣行業的人數在1500左右，現在人數應該多些了，但是對比一下，Yelp一家互聯網公司就有6000人，潛力巨大。
- 對於剛開始工作的或者想尋找更大集會的人來說，這個行業人數太少了，幾乎沒有人比你更有經驗，你可以把你以前的積累帶到這個新行業，過個一兩年，你的經驗組合將是獨特而稀缺的。
- 因為iPhone和蘋果生態的壯大，用於開發蘋果系統應用的Objective-C語言變得越來越吃香，最火熱的時候，就算只有兩年的Objective-C開發經驗，依舊可以獲得很高的報酬。
- 這個行業極少有人有十年經驗、五年經驗，如果你對加密貨幣行業感興趣，現在是加入的好時候。
這個行業一直在變化，一直有新的機會，就算是行業內有很多年經驗的，由於這個行業變化是如此之快，經驗不見得有很高的議價能力，相反需要的是如何契合行業的需求。來得早不一定就高枕無憂。
如果是個大趨勢，相當長一段時間都不算晚。從互聯網的歷史來看，2000加入互聯網不晚，2005年不晚，2010年依舊不晚，2015年踩準了也不算晚。
Objective-C的故事很有借鑑意義，這裡因篇幅原因，沒有貼出原文，詳見：
https://blog.coinmarketcap.com/2020/03/20/bitwises-ceo-on-the-principles-for-deciding-whether-to-enter-crypto/
Mining has a very long supply chain, filled with uncertainties. Whether it is the stability of the mining, or the stability of the ore machine operation and maintenance, you will not be able to predict outcomes with 100% certainty.
Secondly, the current stage of mining is a call option, there may be relatively large fluctuations in prices and premiums, and one should have a good process to deal with the risk.
What to ignore：
The legend that mining is a highly profitable industry, especially during price surges, should be ignored.
After the halving, mining will enter a period of a reduction of supernormal profits. If the static breakeven period is 3-4 months, you should be looking at the dynamic breakeven period, as this is where the risk is highest. With price fluctuations and a reduction in value of mining machines for resale, it could be hard for people to break even on their investment.
神魚的回答集中在礦業，相當於回答了『要不要加入挖礦業』這個問題：
- 挖礦產業鏈條很長，有很多不可控、不確定性
- 現在挖礦相當於一個看漲期權，價格波動大，風險也大
- 減半之後，礦業的暴利階段將結束，考慮到價格波動和礦機折舊，賺錢很難。
感覺神魚是在勸退，現在的礦業真有那麼慘嗎？請讀者自行判斷吧。
The best advice I can give is stay humble and learn the space for a little bit.
I don't know if I consider myself an OG Bitcoiner, but I've been in the space more than half of its life. The space is about eleven years old in total, and I've been here six years.
People joining the space, three to six months — just stay quiet and listen and learn, because it takes a good year and a half to two years to really understand why it's only going to be Bitcoin. Bitcoin can change the world.
And no matter who, no matter when someone got into the space, we were always late. I wish I had bought Bitcoin six months ago. You got in when you got in and you can still do well, but it's only going to be Bitcoin. Everything else is just some guy printing money in his own database and it will not succeed.
Tone Vays是個交易員，在Youtube上很火，屬於比特神教：
- 剛入行的人，少說話，多看多學，要花個一兩年才真正懂得，為什麼比特幣才是終極選擇
- 無論是誰，總回覺得來晚了
- 就算後悔應該早點買比特幣，但現在買還是可以
- 除了比特幣，其它的幣都是忽悠
他的意見我只是貼上來，我不發表看法。
I'll say this: the crypto industry is very willing — especially when it comes to M&As — things like that are able to happen a lot more with handshakes and meetings and walking through things and having conversations.
Literally, you can message the CEO of a company that you're using on Twitter and be like, dude, what the hell is going on? Why is it not working right now? Obviously, that's changed. You can't do that with companies like Coinbase anymore, you used to be able to.
You used to be able to email Brian's [Armstrong] Gmail and say, “Brian, what the f***? Why is my Coinbase bitcoin not showing up? I just paid $50 a bitcoin and now it's at $75. What's going on?”
You can't do that anymore. But at the same time, you still can to an extent. That's one of our biggest strengths.
Charlie Shrem是元老中的元老，身為一個美國DS，比特幣改變了他的命運，但他卻早早因為比特幣洗錢而入獄，出獄之後還是活躍在幣圈：
- 這個行業很開放、很有活力，老闆們很好打交道。你用的產品有問題，在推特上直接@這個產品的老闆，老闆會直接回復你。雖然現在像coinbase那樣的不見得如此了，但是大多數人一般情況下還是會理你的。
放在國內也是一樣的，你正兒八經有問題想問一個項目的老闆，只要不是超級大咖，都會回覆你的，你和行業前沿如此之近。這是別的行業無法實現的。
額外八卦幾句，據他自己在推特上說的，他出獄之後，大部分錢都去買了幾套房子，安心收租，只有很少一部分錢拿來炒幣。
Please educate yourself, number one, and do your own research.
Number two, there is a lot of risk involved in cryptocurrency. There is technology risk in using the platforms, in holding these assets, custodying them yourself. There is the risk that you could lose your private key and forever lose access to your digital assets. There's a market risk. These exchanges — again, some of them are regulated, some of them are more resilient — but a lot of the newer platforms or even some older platforms have had hacks that had issues with securities.
Don't go on f****** Twitter and follow some crypto trader handle and try to do what that person is doing: it is not going to work for you because every person's risk tolerance is very different.
Meltem Demirors是Coinshares的首席戰略官，她強調的和前面幾位差不多：
- 一定要自己做研究，替自己的投資負責
- 不要梭哈，注意丟幣、盜幣、平臺跑路的風險
- 不是追大V跟單，每個人抗風險能力不同
分享就到這裡，
有的讀者可能會想了，
那是因為那些年大行情好，
他們明明是『坐電梯』上來的，
為什麼要看他們分享
『
我是如何從一樓到十樓』的經驗。
他們有坐牢的，有賣房梭哈的，
有老早就入行一直沒掙到大錢的，
我把每個人的照片都貼出來，就是這個原因，
越是面容安詳的人，背後的故事越多。
不要忽視過來人的經驗。
題圖來自美劇『權力的遊戲』
------------------------
多餘的臺詞
------------------------
Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder.
混亂不是深淵，混亂是階梯
Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again.
很多人想往上爬，卻失敗了，且永無機會再試
The fall breaks them.
失敗催毀了他們
And some are given a chance to climb, but they refuse.
有人本有機會往上爬，但他們拒絕了
They cling to the realm or the gods or love.
他們困於王權，諸神或愛情
Illusions.
這都是幻象
Only the ladder is real.
只有階梯是真實的
The climb is all there is.
爬上去才是一切
