《經濟學人》：為什麼日本房屋壽命這麼短 （日本房屋平均折舊年限僅22年）
Economist: Why Japanese houses have such limited lifespans
The value of the average house depreciates to zero in just 22 years
Mar 15th 2018| TOKYO
譯者注：我們一般都認為中國建築的壽命較短，而國外建築壽命較長。所以前幾天讀到這篇文章，覺得頗為顛覆原來的印象。由於《經濟學人》是知名的嚴肅期刊，應該不是標題黨。所以翻譯給大家供參考。
每二十年，日本東海岸伊勢市最神聖的建築——神廟——就會被推倒並重建一次。這樣的儀式被認為會刷新凡人和天神的精神聯繫。然而，拆除房屋就沒有這樣神聖的目的了。但是在日本房屋仍然有著類似的短暫預期壽命。(EVERY 20 years in the eastern coastal Japanese city of Ise, the shrine, one of the country’s most venerated, is knocked down and rebuilt. The ritual is believed to refresh spiritual bonds between the people and the gods. Demolishing houses has no such lofty objective. Yet in Japan they have a similarly short life expectancy.)
根據野村證券的資料，日本房屋折舊到零的平均年限不超過22年(這個是和地價分開算的，地價一般可以保值)。大部分房屋此後被推倒並重建。新房子的銷售遠超過二手房，二手房也經常預期在交易後會被拆除並重建。在美國和歐洲，2017年二手房交易佔了90%，而新房只有10%。而在日本則恰恰相反。(According to Nomura, a brokerage, the value of the average Japanese house depreciates to zero in 22 years. (It is calculated separately from the land, which is more likely to hold its value.) Most are knocked down and rebuilt. Sales of new homes far outstrip those of used ones, which usually change hands in the expectation that they will be demolished and replaced. In America and Europe second-hand houses accounted for 90% of sales and new-builds for 10% in 2017. In Japan the proportions are the other way around.)
日本房屋快速貶值的部分原因是由於傳統。在很多國家，人們結婚後買房，有了孩子會搬到大一些的房子，或者退休後搬到小一些的房子。而日本人希望一輩子住在一個地方。這是基於日本是一個農業民族的歷史習慣，當年農民們必須這樣。結果，日本人從不習慣住在二手房裡面。(The reasons for Japanese houses’ rapid loss of value lie partly in tradition. In many countries people buy when they pair off, when they move to a bigger place after they have children or when they downsize on retirement. Japanese people have tended to see out all life’s stages in the same dwelling, a custom they attribute to their history as a farming nation, when they had to stay put. As a result, they never got used to second-hand homes.)
頻繁發生的地震是另外一個原因。巨大的地震經常伴隨著更加嚴格的建築法規。許多民眾希望住在根據最新標準建設的房子裡面。歷史同樣有助於形成這樣的習慣：在二戰期間，東京等數十個城市被美國人的炸彈夷為平地。而後人口迅速增加，數量需求遠超過質量的需求。大型預製建築商，例如Daiwa House(大和屋業)，持續到今天，每年推出新的建築類型。就像買車一樣，人民希望升級到新款。(The frequency of earthquakes also plays a part. Large tremors tend to be followed by tougher building regulations. Many people want to live in a home built to the most recent standards. History also helped to form habits. During the second world war dozens of cities, including Tokyo, had been flattened by American bombs. The population then was growing fast. Quantity was valued over quality. Big prefab manufacturers, such as Daiwa House, survive to this day, bringing out new models every year that, as with cars, people aspire to upgrade to.)
一位粗心的房東(One careless owner)
在一個衰退的循環中，房屋預期會貶值，因此不會被維護。因此，二手房經常是骯髒和失望的。日本人同樣對“凶宅”避之不及，因為，前一位住戶自殺或者附近住著邪教徒。房產中介Noriko Kagami說，在日本“‘老的’和‘好的’這兩個詞不會同時出現”，她把她自己買的房子也給推倒重建了。(In a vicious cycle, houses are expected to depreciate and are therefore not maintained, so second-hand homes are often dingy and depressing. Japanese people also shun wake-ari bukken, buildings “stigmatised” because, say, a former resident committed suicide there or a cult resides nearby. “In Japan, the words old and charming do not go together,” says Noriko Kagami, an estate agent (who tore down a house she bought herself).)
考慮到老房子價值幾乎跌倒了零，意料之中銀行業更樂意為新房子發貸款。長期以來，政府政策是解決住房短缺問題，進一步扭曲了購房者的意圖。野村證券的Daisuke Fukushima說，改造房屋不會有稅收減免，因為物業稅是基於價值的。買新房需要支付相當於房價0.4%的產權登記費。而產權變更需要支付2%。(Unsurprisingly, given the speed at which the value of houses falls to nothing, banks are more willing to offer loans for new places. Government policy, long aimed at resolving a housing shortage, further skews housebuyers’ incentives. It is not tax-efficient to improve a house, says Daisuke Fukushima of Nomura, since property taxes are based on value. Someone who buys a new-build must pay 0.4% of its value to register ownership. Registering a change of ownership costs 2%.)
建造商和裝修公司在這種快速的房屋循環中收益頗豐。但是從長遠來說這是浪費。Toyo大學Chie Nozawa將這個和刀耕火種相類比，Meikai大學的房地產部Yasuhiko Nakajo說，“我們並不在建造財富。”(Construction and home-fitting companies benefit from this speedy housing cycle. But in the longer term is it wasteful. Chie Nozawa of Toyo University compares it to slash-and-burn farming. “We are not building wealth,” says Yasuhiko Nakajo, who leads the property department at Meikai University.)
隨著吃飯的嘴巴數量的增加，刀耕火種至少有短期的效益。由於曾經急迫需要增加房屋數量，形成了日本用後即扔的住房文化，在當前人口衰減階段毫無意義。日本目前有大約一千萬棟廢棄建築，到2033年，這一數字將增加到兩千萬棟。(When the number of mouths to feed is growing, slash-and-burn at least makes short-term sense. But Japan’s throwaway housing culture, shaped by a once-urgent need to house growing numbers, makes no sense now that the population is shrinking. The country currently has an estimated 10m abandoned homes, a number that is expected to rise above 20m by 2033.)
這個給整個鄰里社區帶來了麻煩：一個被拋棄的房屋拉低了周邊房屋的價格。這同樣使得龐大的戰後一代的財富傳承變得複雜化。一個一文不值的房屋不能出售，用作房東在養老院或看護醫院的費用，也不能作為遺產繼承。(That is a problem for entire neighbourhoods: a derelict lot drags down the value of nearby houses. It also complicates the transfer of wealth from the big post-war generation. A house that is worth nothing cannot be sold to pay for an assisted-living apartment or a place in a nursing home, or handed on as an inheritance.)
政府開始遲緩的修改其政策，政府設定將2020年二手房交易的數字比十年前翻一翻，並且在2013年加強房屋檢測系統。下個月開始，房產中介將必須提供物業買家更多的信息，包括公佈任何檢測結果。但是，即便如此，很多問題還是不清楚，包括檢測信息的有效期有多久，或者賣家是否在銷售時撒了謊，沒有告知房屋的缺陷。(The government has, belatedly, started to rethink its policies. It set itself the target of doubling the number of used-housing sales in 2020 compared with ten years earlier, and is strengthening a home-surveying system introduced in 2013. From next month estate agents will have to give prospective buyers more information, including disclosing the results of any inspection. Much still remains unclear, though, including how long the results of a survey will remain valid, and whether the seller will be liable for defects that were not disclosed during the sale.)
政府同樣在考慮是否在購買空置房屋的時候減稅。一些區域為廢棄房屋的買家提供激勵措施，包括經濟援助和更低的稅收。(The government is also considering reducing the taxes associated with buying a home if it is currently vacant. Some regions are offering incentives to buyers of abandoned homes, including financial aid and lower taxes.)
銀行也變得漸漸樂於給二手房提供房貸。一些房屋公司開始提供翻新服務。Motoazabu Hills，一個位於東京中心區的漂亮的出租公寓轉手時，新的房主決定重新內部裝修，而不是拆了重建。AERA雜誌最近發佈了一個指南，用於指導購買保值物業。它的建議之一是在一個有很多20歲到30歲女士（生育年齡）的地區置業。(Banks are becoming a little more forthcoming with loans for second-hand housing. Some housing companies are starting to offer renovation and refurbishment services. When Motoazabu Hills, a posh building of rented apartments in central Tokyo, recently changed hands, the new owner decided to gut and redo the interiors rather than knock the whole thing down. AERA, a magazine, recently published a guide to buying property that will retain its value. Among its tips was to buy in an area that is home to lots of women in their 20s and 30s (ie, of childbearing age).)
所有這些努力獲得了一些成功，在一些城市，很多人租房而不是購房，並且更經常搬家。Nakajo先生說：“我們進入了一個新時代，人們開始考慮二手房”。在2017年，東京創紀錄的銷售了37329個二手公寓，比十年前增加了31%。但是，除非Nakajo先生提出的“20年思維模式”發生改變，否則人們還是青睞新的房屋。(All this is having some success. In the cities a larger share of people now rent than own places, and move more often. “We are entering a stage where people are starting to see a used home as an option,” says Mr Nakajo. In 2017 a record 37,329 second-hand flats were sold in Tokyo, a 31% increase on ten years earlier. Yet until what Mr Nakajo dubs the “20-year-mentality” changes, the preference for shiny and new will remain.)
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