管道運輸瓶頸限制俄羅斯的天然氣出口歐洲

European pipeline bottlenecks may limit Russian gas imports, says Wood Mackenzie

Wood Mackenzie說，管道運輸瓶頸限制俄羅斯的天然氣出口歐洲

This year, Russia is on target to deliver 200 billion m³ of piped gas into Europe, a figure which meets close to 40% of the region’s gas demand.

今年，俄羅斯計劃向歐洲輸送2000億立方米的管道天然氣，這一數字接近該地區天然氣需求的40%。

But Europe’s import requirements are growing – Wood Mackenzie estimates it will need a further 77 billion m³/yr by 2025 – and there are doubts Russia’s export capacity will be able to keep pace.

但歐洲的進口需求正在增長——Wood Mackenzie估計，到2025年，歐洲還需要770億立方米/年的天然氣供應量——俄羅斯的出口能力是否能夠跟上這一速度還存在疑問。

The problem is not that Russia does not have the capacity or volumes to export, it is that infrastructure bottlenecks in Europe will limit Russia's export capacity, forcing European consumers to turn to LNG.

問題不是俄羅斯沒有出口能力或出口量，而是歐洲的基礎設施瓶頸將限制俄羅斯的出口能力，迫使歐洲消費者轉向液化天然氣。

“Wood Mackenzie believes Europe’s LNG requirements will more than double by 2025,” Hadrien Collineau, Senior Research Analyst, Gas and LNG, Wood Mackenzie, said. “Europe's growing gas import dependency, coupled with constraints on Russian pipeline exports, mean that LNG imports will have to increase.”

“Wood Mackenzie認為，到2025年，歐洲的液化天然氣需求將增加一倍以上，”Wood Mackenzie天然氣和液化天然氣高級研究分析師Hadrien Collineau說。“歐洲日益增長的天然氣進口依賴，加上對俄羅斯管道出口的限制，意味著液化天然氣進口將不得不增加。”

He added: “On the face of it, Russia is well positioned to further increase flows to Europe, given it has existing pipeline export capacity of 257 billion m

他補充說：“從表面上看，鑑於俄羅斯現有的管道出口能力為2570億立方米/年，俄羅斯有能力進一步增加流向歐洲的流量。俄羅斯已經開始建造兩條主要管道：Nord stream 2和Turkstream。

“On paper, these two links could see Russia's pipeline export capacity to Europe reach 343 billion m³/yr. But effectively, capacity to Europe will be much less, perhaps even as low as 235 billion m³/yr.”

“從紙面上看，這兩條連接線可以看出俄羅斯對歐洲的管道出口能力達到3430億立方米/年。但實際上，對歐洲的出口能力要小得多，甚至可能低至235億立方米/年。”

The difficulties, Collineau said, start at Baumgarten. Because both Nord Stream 2 and Turkstream are designed to converge at the Austrian hub, there will be limited pipeline capacity at Baumgarten to deliver additional gas through Ukraine, even if Russia wanted to.

柯林斯說，困難始於鮑姆加滕。由於Nord stream 2和Turkstream均設計在奧地利樞紐匯合，即使俄羅斯願意，Baumgarten的管道輸送能力也有限，無法通過烏克蘭輸送更多的天然氣。

He said: “These capacity constraints will have an impact on all the export routes Russia uses to access European markets.

他說：“這些能力限制將對俄羅斯用於進入歐洲市場的所有出口路線產生影響。

“Russia currently has 257 billion m³/yr of export capacity to Europe. 128 billion m³/yr of that is Ukraine transit capacity. Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream add 87 billion m

“俄羅斯目前對歐洲的出口能力為2570億立方米/年。其中1280億立方米/年是烏克蘭的運輸能力。Nord Stream 2和Turkstream增加了870億立方米/年的產能，但這些連接將利用現有的歐洲基礎設施，從而將烏克蘭的天然氣運輸量限制為200億立方米/年。因此，俄羅斯對歐洲的總出口能力將僅增加至235億立方米/年。”

Arguably, additional pipeline capacity could be built to overcome these bottlenecks. A new pipeline in Germany could better link Nord Stream 2 to northwest Europe, instead of directing the majority to Slovakia, enabling more flows through Ukraine. Alternatively, Russia could choose to build additional pipeline strings on the Nord Stream or TurkStream routes to access Europe.

可以說，可以建立額外的管道容量來克服這些瓶頸。德國的一條新管道可以更好地將北溪2號連接到歐洲西北部，而不是將大部分輸送到斯洛伐克，從而使更多的水流通過烏克蘭。或者，俄羅斯可以選擇在北溪或Turkstream路線上建造額外的管線，以進入歐洲。

For some time, northwest Europe has been regarded as the ‘sink’ of the global LNG market. This might well be the case over the next two years as global LNG supply growth exceeds LNG demand growth in Asia, requiring Europe to absorb the excess supply.

一段時間以來，西北歐一直被視為全球液化天然氣市場的“下沉”。由於全球液化天然氣供應增長超過了亞洲液化天然氣需求增長，要求歐洲吸收過剩的供應，未來兩年很可能會出現這種情況。

But beyond 2020, northwest Europe will need to compete in the global market to secure LNG imports – and at a time of when the flexibility of Russian gas imports will be limited.

但到2020年後，俄羅斯天然氣進口的靈活性將受到限制，西北歐需要在全球市場上競爭，以確保液化天然氣進口。

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