Coming changes in marine fuels sulfur limits will affect global oil markets, says EIA
EIA：即將到來的海洋運輸燃料油硫含量限制將影響全球石油市場。
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operators, refiners, and global oil markets, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
據美國能源信息管理局（EIA）稱，將於2020年1月生效的限制遠洋船舶燃料中硫含量的國際法規對船舶運營商、煉油廠和全球石油市場都有影響。
Stakeholders will respond to these regulations in different ways, increasing uncertainty for crude oil and petroleum product price formation in both the short and long term.
利益相關者將以不同的方式對這些法規作出反應，增加原油和石油產品價格形成的短期和長期不確定性。
When burned, the sulfur in marine fuel produces sulfur dioxide, a precursor to acid rain. The sulfur content of transportation fuels has been declining for many years because of increasingly stringent regulations implemented by individual countries or groups of countries.
燃燒時，海洋燃料中的硫會產生二氧化硫，這是酸雨的前兆。由於各國或國家集團實施的法規越來越嚴格，運輸燃料的硫含量多年來一直在下降。
In the US, federal and state regulations limit the amount of sulfur present in motor gasoline, diesel fuel, and heating oil.
在美國，聯邦和州法規限制了車用汽油、柴油和加熱油中的硫含量。
The upcoming 2020 rules apply across multiple countries’ jurisdictions to fuels used in the open ocean, representing the largest portion of the approximately 3.9 million bpd global marine fuel market, according to the International Energy Agency.
根據國際能源機構的數據，即將出臺的2020年規則適用於多個國家的管轄區，適用於公海中使用的燃料，佔全球約390萬桶/天海洋燃料市場的最大份額。
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the 171-member state UN agency that sets standards for shipping, is set to reduce the maximum amount of sulfur content (by wt.%) in marine fuels used on the open seas from 3.5% to 0.5% by 2020. These regulations are intended to reduce sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and other pollutants from global ship exhaust.
國際海事組織（IMO）是聯合國設立航運標準的171個成員國機構，其目標是到2020年將公海使用的海洋燃料中的最大硫含量（按wt.%）從3.5%降至0.5%。這些法規旨在減少全球船舶廢氣中的二氧化硫、氮氧化物和其他汙染物。
The 2020 reduction in sulfur limits follows a series of similar reductions in marine fuel sulfur limits, such as those that reduced sulfur content of marine fuels in IMO-designated Emission Control Areas from 1.0% to 0.1% in 2015. Other areas around ports in Europe and parts of China have adopted similar sulfur restrictions.
2020年，硫限值的降低遵循了一系列類似的海洋燃料硫限值的降低，例如，在國際海事組織指定的排放控制區，海洋燃料的硫含量從2015年的1.0%降低到了0.1%。歐洲和中國部分港口周圍的其他地區也採取了類似的硫限制措施。
Vessel operators have several choices for compliance with the new IMO sulfur limits. One option is to switch to a lower sulfur fuel compliant with the new IMO rules. However, the cost, widespread availability, and specifications of a new fuel for use in marine engines is still uncertain.
船舶運營商有幾個選擇，以符合新的IMO硫限值。一種選擇是改用符合國際海事組織新規則的低硫燃料。然而，用於船用發動機的新燃料的成本、廣泛可用性和規格仍然不確定。
Another option is to use scrubbers to remove pollutants from ships’ exhaust, allowing them to continue to use higher sulfur fuels. However, the process of installing scrubbers can be costly and can increase a ship’s operating costs. A small portion of existing marine vessels has already installed scrubbers, and that portion is not expected to increase greatly before 2020 because of time constraints and limited installation capacity. Even if scrubbers become widely adopted, which would allow the continued use of fuels with higher sulfur content, the price and availability of higher sulfur fuels after 2020 remains uncertain.
另一種選擇是使用洗滌器去除船舶排氣中的汙染物，使其繼續使用更高的硫燃料。然而，安裝洗滌器的過程可能是昂貴的，並且會增加船舶的運營成本。現有的一小部分船舶已經安裝了洗滌器，由於時間限制和安裝能力有限，預計該部分不會在2020年前大幅增加。即使洗滌器被廣泛採用，允許繼續使用含硫量較高的燃料，2020年後含硫量較高的燃料的價格和可用性仍不確定。
Ships also have the option to switch to non-petroleum-based fuels. Some newer ships and some currently being built have dual-fuel engines that would allow them to use non-petroleum-based fuels such as LNG after minimal modifications. However, the infrastructure to support use of LNG as a shipping fuel is currently limited in both scale and availability.
船舶也可以選擇改用非石油基燃料。一些較新的船舶和一些目前正在建造的船舶都有雙燃料發動機，這將允許他們在最小程度的改裝後使用非石油燃料，如液化天然氣。然而，支持將液化天然氣用作運輸燃料的基礎設施目前在規模和可用性方面都受到限制。
The upcoming IMO regulations pose a significant challenge for global petroleum refineries: how to increase the supply of low sulfur products for use in marine applications and minimise the output of high sulfur oils.
即將出臺的國際海事組織條例對全球煉油廠構成了一個重大挑戰：如何增加用於海洋應用的低硫產品的供應，並最大限度地減少高硫油的產量。
Residual oil – the long-chain hydrocarbons remaining after lighter and shorter hydrocarbons such as gasoline and diesel have been separated from crude oil – currently makes up the largest component of marine fuels used by large ocean-going vessels, also known as bunker fuel. Removing sulfur from residual oils or upgrading them to more valuable lighter products such as diesel and gasoline can be an expensive and capital-intensive process.
剩餘油——汽油和柴油等較輕和較短的碳氫化合物從原油中分離出來後剩餘的長鏈碳氫化合物——目前構成大型遠洋船舶使用的海洋燃料的最大組成部分，也稱為燃料。從渣油中除去硫或將其升級為更具價值的輕質產品（如柴油和汽油）可能是一個昂貴且資本密集的過程。
The choice of compliance path for vessels also introduces a risk to refiners: if scrubbers become widely adopted, higher sulfur residual oils might still be used, potentially reducing the value of existing and new refining units capable of upgrading the residual oils.
容器合規路徑的選擇也給煉油廠帶來了風險：如果洗滌器被廣泛採用，仍可能使用高硫殘油，這可能會降低現有和新的煉油裝置的價值，從而提高殘油的質量。
One approach refineries could pursue is to divert more low sulfur distillate fuel into the bunker fuel market, which would mean ocean-going ships would be competing with trucks, heavy equipment, trains, and planes for supplies of distillate fuels at a time when global demand for distillate is already high. To respond to added demand for distillate fuels, refineries can increase the rate they process crude oil or invest and build more refinery capacity to produce distillate fuels. Both options would increase demand for crude oil.
煉油廠可能會採取的一種方法是將更多的低硫蒸餾燃料轉移到燃料市場，這意味著遠洋船舶將與卡車、重型設備、火車和飛機競爭，在全球對蒸餾燃料的需求已經很高的時候供應蒸餾燃料。為了滿足對蒸餾燃料增加的需求，煉油廠可以提高原油加工率，或者投資和建設更多煉油廠生產蒸餾燃料的能力。這兩種選擇都將增加對原油的需求。
Refineries might also choose to process crude oils that are lower in sulfur, yield a greater amount of distillates, and yield lower amounts of residual oils. Changes in the types of crude oil refineries purchase would then change how different crude oils are priced relative to each other and crude prices overall.
煉油廠也可能選擇加工含硫量較低的原油，生產更多的蒸餾油，並生產更少的殘油。原油精煉廠採購類型的變化將改變不同原油的相對定價方式以及總體原油價格。
The decisions refiners and shippers make in response to the IMO 2020 rules heavily influence one another, adding to uncertainty and complexity. In January 2019, EIA will release the first Short-Term Energy Outlook that includes monthly projections through December 2020. This report will discuss short-term implications and uncertainties surrounding the IMO regulations. Later that month, the Annual Energy Outlook 2019 will describe potential long-term implications of the regulations.
煉油商和託運商根據IMO 2020規則做出的決定相互影響很大，增加了不確定性和複雜性。2019年1月，環評將發佈第一份短期能源展望，其中包括到2020年12月的月度預測。本報告將討論國際海事組織條例的短期影響和不確定性。該月晚些時候，《2019年年度能源展望》將描述該條例的潛在長期影響。
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