容言創新傳媒創始人谷昕容、Tim Draper、Draper Dragon合夥人Bobby Chao （從左至右）
今天的對話嘉賓是全球風投傳奇人物Tim Draper，他身上有一長串的標籤讓人目不暇接：億萬富翁、“硅谷風投教父”、硅谷風投世家、德豐傑基金創始人、“冒險大師”、“病毒營銷”創造者、自由主義者、“拆分加州”的倡導者……
他創辦的德豐傑（DFJ）投資基金是全球著名的風險投資公司，曾投資特斯拉、Hotmail、Skype等知名企業，並在中國投資百度、分眾傳媒、空中網等。他是最早投資中國的海外風險投資家，但是近幾年已不再活躍於中國市場。
他是區塊鏈和比特幣的堅定信仰者，他認為區塊鏈和加密貨幣是比互聯網更大的浪潮，他堅信世界向去中心化方向發展，法幣終將消失。2014年，他成功預言比特幣價格將在三年內達到1萬美金。2018年，他再次預言：比特幣會在2022年達到25萬美金。在Draper和德豐傑基金的投資花名冊中，不乏有Coinbase、OKCoin、Tezos、Bancor等區塊鏈項目。
Tim Draper如今依然活躍在硅谷投資圈，也把更多時間用於培訓創業者。我們時常會聽到他關於加密貨幣發表言論，近期他又表示說，計劃與Facebook會面，討論投資這家社交網絡公司的加密貨幣項目。“我很想聽聽這個項目，看看它是否適合投資。”
上個月，Tim Draper在他位於加州Saint Mateo的硅谷英雄學院接待了我的訪問，1米9的高大身材，談笑風生，完全看不出已年過花甲。
數字貨幣和區塊鏈帶來萬億美元量級浪潮
Grace: How do you look at the venture capital investment in the next five years?
谷昕容：您如何看待未來五年風險投資行業的發展情況？
Tim Draper: I feel like we have a long term global boom in venture capital and in entrepreneurship and in technology generally. I think we have a global boom going on. I suspect that boom will continue until people start doing crazy things. So overall I think we're over the long term. We're gonna all be better off.
我認為，總體來說在全球範圍內，風險投資、創業和科技發展都將看到一個長期繁榮的景象，我們的蓬勃發展將會持續，除非人們做出瘋狂舉動。因此從長遠來看，人類會變得越來越好，大家都會得到富裕。
Tim Draper: The internet has really extraordinary transformed many countries including China.
互聯網使很多國家發生巨大變革，中國既是如此。
Tim Draper: It transformed industries like communications and information, and gaming and entertainment. The internet has a big effect on all of those industries. Now we have bitcoin and all the associated technologies with bitcoin, the block chain, the smart contracts, and then all of the artificial intelligence that's tied to all the big data and deep learning that's happening. You put all that together. This will be a bigger wave than the internet wave. This will be bigger and more transformative than anyway we've ever had in the history of the world.
互聯網變革了通信產業、遊戲和娛樂等行業，對所有行業都產生了非常大的影響。而現在我們有了比特幣和所有與之相關的技術——區塊鏈、智能合約、人工智能，以及所有與這些緊密連接的大數據、深度學習。如果你把這些都聯繫在一起，你會發現這將是一個比互聯網浪潮更大的浪潮。它將比我們此前發生的任何技術革命都具有更大的變革性和顛覆性。
Grace: How big that will be?
谷昕容：這會是多大的市場？
Tim Draper: The internet affected were sort of ten to a hundred billion dollars in market size. The industries that are affected by bitcoin in the associated technologies are in the trillions, trillions of dollars. They are finance and banking and commerce and real-estate, insurance and healthcar. And government were also affected. They're gonna be improved quite a bit because of these decentralized currencies.
互聯網影響的市場規模大約在100億到1000億美元之間。而受到比特幣和其相關技術影響的行業將是數萬億美元級別的。這些受影響的行業是金融、銀行、商業、地產、保險和醫療保健。同時也包括政府，政府也將因為分佈式貨幣而得到改進。
Grace: How far that will be?
谷昕容：時間點是多久？
Tim Draper: Yeah, well, it'll be one thing at a time. Finance is already being transformed.
可能一次只能實現一件事情。金融領域已經在發生改變。
Tim Draper: Banking is already changing, companies like coinbase serving finance have in effect created a new banking system in a more efficient, less friction banking system that's global.
銀行業正在發生變革，像Coinbase 這樣的金融服務公司實際上正在創造一個全新的更加高效、更少摩擦的全球性銀行系統。
Tim Draper: For these crypto currencies, that is the beginning, of the decentralization of the whole world, where we all the geographic borders fall even farther, and we all become one big world. And I think that world is coming very soon, I think very soon, in the countries that benefit the most will be the most open to the new decentralized world. Other countries that closed down, I think will be left behind. It's a really interesting time.
加密貨幣的出現將是整個世界去中心化的開始，所有的地理邊界都將被打破，我們都成為同一個大世界。我認為這樣的世界會很快到來，那些受益最多的國家，對新的去中心化的世界將是最開放的；而其他不接受的國家，我想會被甩在後面。這真是個有趣的時代。
Tim Draper: Totally believe that I can envision it completely where we're no longer using seven billion dollars, because they are the old way. It's like carrying around a fistful of cash or coins. That's the old way. That's the fiat currency. That's the political currency.
我堅信這一點，我完全可以預見到，終有一天我們將不再使用70億美元，因為它一定會被淘汰。就好比我們隨身攜帶一大把現金或硬幣，都會過時的。那些是法定貨幣、政治貨幣。
Grace: Do you still believe that the coin will be like 250,000 dollars?
谷昕容：現在你還堅信到2025年比特幣會漲到25萬美元一枚嗎？
Tim Draper: Yes, 250,000 by 2022 or 2023. But it'll be in that time frame. Yes, because bitcoin is just a better currency, it’s better than the Renminbi, and it’s better than the dollar. It's certainly a lot better than the Argentine Peso or the Nigerian Naira. Those dropped 50% a year every year. So it's a lot better than those.
是的，到2022年或2023年將達到25萬美元，但那是一個時間段。就是因為比特幣是更好的貨幣，它比人民幣更好，也比美元好。當然比阿根廷比索和尼日利亞奈拉要好得更多。那些貨幣每年都要貶值50%，所以比特幣比他們好多了。
Tim Draper: But currencies tied to a political force are never going to be as good as a decentralized currency that's global and open. And all we really need is to make it easy to pay in bitcoin to pay you when you go to Starbucks, or pay for a house or pay for a car or pay for whatever. If you can pay easily in bitcoin, and it's gotta get easier and easier, then you just got a better currency, and so people will move to that currency. As they moved to that currency, the network becomes bigger and bigger and bigger and the bitcoin becomes more valuable.
政府發行的貨幣永遠不會像去中心化貨幣那樣好，因為後者是國際化的、開放式的。我們真正需要做的就是，讓人們用比特幣更加方便地購買星巴克咖啡，買房子、汽車，以及支付任何東西。如果你能用比特幣輕鬆支付，這一切變得越來越容易，那麼你就得到了一種更好的貨幣，這樣人們就會轉向這種貨幣。隨著他們轉向這種貨幣，這個網絡會變得越來越大，比特幣也就會變得越來越有價值。
Grace: Why is the time 2022?
谷昕容：為什麼是2022這個時間點？
Tim Draper: Because I think a lot of the engineers need a couple of years to do the development work to get to the point where you and I can just take our bitcoin and buy coffee with it.
因為我認為很多工程師需要幾年的時間來做開發工作，以達到你和我都可以拿著我們的比特幣買咖啡的目的。
Grace: But now the market is very down.
谷昕容： 但是目前市場很低迷。
Tim Draper: I know that always happens, though. That’s the same thing happened with the internet. There was the dot com boom, and then there was the bust, and then there was amazon. And amazon just grew and grew and grew and all the commerce companies, they all became quite valuable. And much more valuable than even the top of the boom. So I suspect we'll see the same kind of thing. And It's you got the earlier adopters, and then you have this point where everybody is sort of saying, wait, I can't use it yet. And then as people, then there will be new use for it. And you'll start growing and growing.
我知道這樣的事情總是會發生的。互聯網也是經歷了這樣的過程，從互聯網泡沫繁榮到破裂，再後來出現了亞馬遜。隨著亞馬遜的不斷髮展壯大，所有的電子商務公司都變得非常有價值，而且比泡沫最頂峰的時候估值還要高。所以，我想這樣的事情會同樣發生在比特幣身上。如果你是非常早期的參與者，這時候周圍的每一個人都會說，等等，我還不能用它。但是後來會有更多新的使用者加入進來，那麼你的比特幣就會不斷增值。
硅谷風投大佬普遍最看好兩大AI+賽道：
醫療健康+自動駕駛
Grace: As a venture capital, how far away the techonology you tend to invest, less than five years or 5-10 years?
谷昕容：作為早期風險投資，你會傾向於投資一項多久可以落地的技術，是5年之內，還是5至10年？
Tim Draper: I like to invest for five years to ten years out where a product. I'll invest then the product will hit the market in one or two years, and then it will start to spread. And it might be fifteen years before it spreads all the way around the globe, but it's probably five years before the world realizes it's a winner.
我喜歡投資未來5到10年的產品。這個產品可能將在未來1到2年內上市，然後它將開始傳播，可能需要15年的時間它才可能傳遍全世界。但是一般來說，我會在全世界都意識到它是贏家之前5年就開始投資它了。
Grace: Which sepecifc sector you would be most interested in investing?
谷昕容：有哪些具體的領域是你認為必須要投資的？
Tim Draper: AI and bitcoin, I like both. It's interesting because bitcoin creates the blockchain, which allows for data to be well protected. And then data on the other side can be mined for really interesting information.
人工智能和比特幣，兩者我都喜歡。有趣的是比特幣創造了區塊鏈，區塊鏈技術使數據得到很好的保護，然後數據可以被挖掘來獲取真正有趣的信息。
Tim Draper: We have a company which is called cloud medics. What they do is they can do a better job of evaluating your illness than a doctor can. They are the artificial intelligence took the doctor test and got 86, whereas the average doctor got a 76 on this test, and it takes a 70 to pass. So our artificial intelligence is doing a better job of diagnosing patients than most doctors. And when combined with a doctor, the AI scored a 91. So what that means to me is in the future, we will have all of our data medical records up in the cloud.
我們投資了一家做“雲醫療”的公司，他們利用人工智能、深度學習，能做到比醫生更準確地診斷病人的病情。人工智能做醫生診療測試，得了86分，而普通醫生做這項測試平均得76分，70分是及格線。因此，我們的人工智能比大多數醫生在診斷病人方面做得更好。而當人工智能與醫生相結合時，可以得到91分。對我來說這意味著，未來我們將把所有的醫療健康數據記錄都放在雲端。
Tim Draper: But in addition to medical records, it will be our blood test results in our genetic history. And then there will be other things like what are our fitness results or what we had for breakfast, or who we've met, where we've traveled, what we've been exposed to, all that data will be up there. So no doctor could possibly know all the things that you've been exposed to, but with enough devices, we will be able to send that data to the cloud, and they may find the headache for you may mean a very different thing from a headache from me. For me, it might be I was bitten by a tick; for you it might be you have a migrants from too much drinking the night before, whatever.
除了病例數據外，還有驗血結果，還包括很多其他的事情，比如我們的健康數據，早餐吃的是什麼，我們見過誰，去過哪裡，接觸過什麼，所有的數據都會在雲端。沒有醫生可能知道你所有與外界接觸的事情，但是如果擁有足夠的設備，我們就能將數據發送到雲端。通過數據分析，人工智能會判斷出你的頭痛與我的頭痛的原因截然不同。對我來說，可能是因為被蜱蟲咬傷了；而對你來說，可能是因為前一天晚上喝了太多酒。
Tim Draper: So we might all have different genetics. So this is going to be a really interesting time in health care. I think that's going to be one of the things.
我們可能都有不同的基因。所以對於醫療健康領域這將是非常有意思的時代，當然這只是諸多事情之一。
Grace: How about the autonomous cars?
谷昕容：那麼關於自動駕駛呢？
Tim Draper: We invested in Cruise automation. The entrepreneur took me for a test drive when he was just getting started. We went for this drive and everything was fine, then we came to an intersection, the car took a sharp left turn into traffic and it was right about then that I decided I would invest, eventhough that was a disaster, I thought all we need to do is just improve the software, because everything else seems to be working. So I made that investment that was Cruise automation, General Motors bought it for a billion dollars about a year later.
我們投資了Cruise。在這家公司剛創立不久的時候，創始人帶我去試駕。剛開始一切都很好，然後我們來到一個十字路口，突然那輛車急速左轉，朝著前面很多車就衝過去了。就在那個剎那，我決定投資它，儘管那是一場災難，但我想我們所要做的只是改進軟件，因為其他的方面都沒有問題。大約一年後，通用汽車以10億美元的價格收購了Cruise。
DFJ 投資的“犀牛”（估值100億美元）和“獨角獸”（估值10億美元）
相信去中心化的世界，
中美之間的競爭應以為人民謀福祉為目的
Grace: So how do you think that the the competition in the hightech area between China and the US?
谷昕容：你怎麼看待中美兩國在科技領域的競爭？
Tim Draper: I don't look at it is between anybody. Competition is amongst businesses but has nothing to do with the borders. It's Huawei and Cisco. It's Baidu and Google. It's they are Chinese or they're big, huge businesses that are spread all the way around the world.
我並不認為國家之前應該存在這樣的競爭。企業間的競爭與國界無關，這是華為和思科，百度和谷歌之間的競爭。他們是中國企業，也是遍佈世界各地的跨國企業。
Tim Draper: I believe that those borders are open and we are one big globe, and it's not just China against the US or US and Mexico's issues or whatever. I think it's mostly we're all just people and we're trying to get along and we're trying to do business with each other, because we are all better off the more connections we make, the more deals that we make. If you and I decide to make a deal, we're both better off because you're happy with it, and I'm happy with it. We're both better off.
我相信，邊界會被打開，我們擁有一個世界，而不應該僅是中國和美國、美國和墨西哥對抗的問題或者是其他任何問題。我們都是普通人，我們渴望和睦相處，我們希望和對方做生意，因為我們之間的聯繫越多，達成的交易越多，我們彼此都會變得更好。如果你和我決定做一筆交易，我們都會受益，因為你很滿意，我也很滿意，我們都會變得更好。
Tim Draper: I think that's the same thing with all businesses, and it's probably you know the same thing with governments. Government should be figuring out how to connect and be linked rather than trying to to compete in any way. I mean they should compete for citizens in a way, and that's a healthy way to compete. It's like how do I make you wanna live in the US, how do they make me want to live in China? How are they competing in that way? I think that is a terrific that's like a new science, the competitiveness of governments, which government is the most interesting for a business person to work from, which government is the best in education, which government has created the best pension system, the best health care. I think that's something to compete on.
我認為所有的商業應該都是這樣的邏輯，政府也應該是這樣的。政府應該弄清楚如何連接和聯繫，而不是試圖以任何方式競爭。我認為他們可以在某種程度上為公民競爭，這是一種健康的競爭方式。比如政府如何能夠讓你想居住在美國，讓我想住在中國，他們是如何以這種方式競爭的，我認為這是一門偉大的科學。政府的競爭力是一門新的科學，哪個政府對企業家來說最有吸引力，哪個政府在教育方面做的最好，哪個政府創造了最好的養老金制度，提供了最好的醫療保健。我覺得這是值得競爭的。
Tim Draper: You want to see what kind of trade connection you can make not what kind of trade war you can create. That makes no sense It’s a media construct. I think the countries, you know, ideally, the two presidents get together and they say, how do we work together? How do we make it so that citizens from both our countries don't feel like there's a border between us.
我們應該考慮建立什麼樣的貿易聯繫，而不是什麼樣的貿易戰，貿易戰毫無意義，這是媒體構建出來的詞彙。我認為，在理想情況下，中美兩國領導人應該坐在一起，討論我們該如何合作，如何才能做到讓兩國的人民不覺得兩國之間有界限和隔閡。
Tim Draper: Because the world's going that way. It is going more frictionless. It's going more transparent. So if you run a country, you get on board or you try to resist it, and by resisting it, you will lose. Because we've evolved, humanity has evolved, the borders no longer being that much, and they're going to mean less and less.
因為世界是朝著這個方向發展的，世界會變得更加透明，摩擦會越來越少。如果你是一個國家的管理者，而你抵制這樣的趨勢，你可能會失去這個時代。因為社會在進化，人類在進步，我們不需要那麼多隔離和界限，邊界的意義正在減少。
培養創業英雄 創業者應該有一點瘋狂
Grace： I saw some super heroes on the wall of your Draper University. You like super heros?!
谷昕容：我看到硅谷英雄學院的牆壁上了花了很多漫畫裡的英雄人物。您是崇拜超級英雄的吧？
Tim Draper: Our whole theme here is super heroes. Superheroes are imaginative. They come up with new ways of thinking in new ways of operating. And we use it for draper university. We use it for hero city. We're always read my book is called out to be the startup hero where that's the kind of way we're always thinking, think forward. How do you improve the world?
Tim Draper: 超級英雄是我們的核心主題。超級英雄富有想象力，他們經常創造出新的想法、新的運作方式。超級英雄主題貫穿在我們的英雄學院和英雄城市，我的書也是以《如何成為超級創業英雄》來命名的。超級英雄總能前瞻性地思考，如何將世界變得更美好。
Grace: Entrepreneurship can be taught?
谷昕容：創業可以被教授嗎？
Tim Draper: Yeah, isn't that funny? That's what people were telling me. They said entrepreneurship can’t be taught. And so then I just went and did it. I taught 1000 entrepreneurs with Draper University. They've created 350 companies from 76 different countries.
是的，這很搞笑吧。人們通常這樣告訴我，創業和企業家精神是不可以被傳授的，但是我就非要嘗試。我在英雄學院教了1000名企業家。他們來自76個不同的國家，已經創建了350家公司。
Tim Draper: So I think, yeah, that entrepreneurship can be taught. We just did. We proved that it could be taught because people used to say entrepreneurship can't be taught. Whenever anybody says something can’t happen. I always think how would that happen? What if we decided we wanted to do that? How would that happen? And that's what we did. And it worked. The schools are huge success, a huge success.
所以我認為，創業可以被教授，事實證明我們做到了。每當有人說什麼事不可能發生，我就會想如果真的發生了呢？如果我們決定這麼做，會怎麼樣？我們就是這麼做的，我們做到了。英雄學院取得了巨大的成功。
Grace: How do you measure the success?
谷昕容：如何衡量成功？
Tim Draper: Well, financially for one, we have three students left here after they learned about bitcoin. And they started quantum. Quantum now is the No. 20 token in the world today. That company got to be seven billion dollar token. Now it's one billion, but it's still a big deal.
從創業公司財務角度來說，我舉兩個例子。我們曾經有三位學員在英雄學院學習了比特幣之後創立了量子鏈和量子幣。目前，量子幣已經是當今世界第20大代幣，他們公司擁有70億美元的代幣，當然現在的價值是10億美元，不過這仍然是非常大的公司。
Tim Draper: Another woman created a fine fiber line that goes up the follow bin that can determine whether a woman has cancer. And that got FDA approval, and she sold the business for 275 million dollars.
另外有一位女士發明了一條細纖維線，它可以用來判斷女性是否患有癌症。後來這個發明得到了FDA的批准，最後她以2.75億美元的價格賣掉了公司。
Tim Draper: We are only six years old here, and we already have about ten to fifteen companies that have come out of here that are worth in the ten to a hundred million dollar range. And they're starting to employ a lot of people. So yeah, it's a huge success.
我們的英雄學院才做了六年時間，我們已經有大約10-15家估值達到1000萬至1億美元之間，而且他們僱傭了很多人。所以，我想這是巨大的成功。
Tim Draper: This is a major, major success. The real estate around here is tripled in value because of this. Yeah, so amazing things have happened because of Draper University. So we're really pleased. We've got a lot of chinese students who come and they've done very well.
這是最主要的成功。另外，英雄學院附近的地價已經漲到了原來的三倍。所以，很多不可思議的事情都是因為英雄學院而發生，我們為此感到很高興。我們也有很多來自中國的學院，他們後來回國都發展得很好。
Grace: People say you are crazy, do you agree with that? Do you think crazyness is a must personality for entrepreneurs?
谷昕容：人們說你很瘋狂，是冒險大師，你同意這個評價嗎？你認為瘋狂是創業者必備的特性嗎？
Tim Draper: Yeah, I’m not dangerous crazy. I am crazy in trying new things, and I look for entrepreneurs who are just a little bit out there. They are on the on the edge where a lot of people will think what they're doing doesn't make any sense.
是的，但我不是危險的瘋子。我只是願意瘋狂地嘗試新事物。我尋找的創業者是比正常人瘋狂一點。他們處於這樣一種邊緣，就是很多人會認為他們所做的事情沒有任何意義。
Tim Draper: So I will back Elon Musk and Elon says we're going to Mars, and most people think that's crazy. But few people think that's really great. And all the best engineers in the world want to go to work for Elon, because they're gonna figure out how to get people to Mars. And whether they get to whenever they get to Mars, there will be all sorts of interesting things that happen along the way. And Elon will have the best people in the world working for him.
所以我會支持伊隆·馬斯克，伊隆說我們要去火星，大多數人認為這很瘋狂，很少有人認為這真的很棒。世界上所有最優秀的工程師都想為伊隆工作，他們會想辦法把人們帶到火星上。無論他們何時能達成夢想，這一路上都會發生各種有趣的事情。伊隆將擁有世界上最優秀的人為他工作。
Tim Draper: I mean it was crazy when I backed Baidu. I mean the idea of a Silicon valley venture capitalists investing any money at all in China back then was ridiculous. Why would anybody invest in china? The idea of the search engine made no sense. There weren't even that many computers in China at that time. So, yeah, a little crazy is ok. I want to back those people who are a little crazy because I know those are the ones will really transform the world.
我當時投資百度，也被認為是很瘋狂的舉動。那時候硅谷的風險投資家在中國投資是非常荒謬的想法。為什麼會有人在中國投資？搜索引擎的想法毫無意義，當時中國甚至都沒有那麼多的電腦。所以，對於投資和創業來說，需要有一點瘋狂。我想去支持那些有點瘋狂的人，因為我知道他們將會是真正改變世界的人。
在採訪結束的時候，Tim送給我一本他的原版著作“How to be the Startup Hero”，並在上面寫下這樣的寄語：
To Grace，
Anything is possible.
You are a great interviewer.
Go make good things happen in China and around the world. Remenber：
Don't say "trade war", say "trade cooperation".
Best,
Tim Draper
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