容言创新传媒创始人谷昕容、Tim Draper、Draper Dragon合伙人Bobby Chao （从左至右）
今天的对话嘉宾是全球风投传奇人物Tim Draper，他身上有一长串的标签让人目不暇接：亿万富翁、“硅谷风投教父”、硅谷风投世家、德丰杰基金创始人、“冒险大师”、“病毒营销”创造者、自由主义者、“拆分加州”的倡导者……
他创办的德丰杰（DFJ）投资基金是全球著名的风险投资公司，曾投资特斯拉、Hotmail、Skype等知名企业，并在中国投资百度、分众传媒、空中网等。他是最早投资中国的海外风险投资家，但是近几年已不再活跃于中国市场。
他是区块链和比特币的坚定信仰者，他认为区块链和加密货币是比互联网更大的浪潮，他坚信世界向去中心化方向发展，法币终将消失。2014年，他成功预言比特币价格将在三年内达到1万美金。2018年，他再次预言：比特币会在2022年达到25万美金。在Draper和德丰杰基金的投资花名册中，不乏有Coinbase、OKCoin、Tezos、Bancor等区块链项目。
Tim Draper如今依然活跃在硅谷投资圈，也把更多时间用于培训创业者。我们时常会听到他关于加密货币发表言论，近期他又表示说，计划与Facebook会面，讨论投资这家社交网络公司的加密货币项目。“我很想听听这个项目，看看它是否适合投资。”
上个月，Tim Draper在他位于加州Saint Mateo的硅谷英雄学院接待了我的访问，1米9的高大身材，谈笑风生，完全看不出已年过花甲。
数字货币和区块链带来万亿美元量级浪潮
Grace: How do you look at the venture capital investment in the next five years?
谷昕容：您如何看待未来五年风险投资行业的发展情况？
Tim Draper: I feel like we have a long term global boom in venture capital and in entrepreneurship and in technology generally. I think we have a global boom going on. I suspect that boom will continue until people start doing crazy things. So overall I think we're over the long term. We're gonna all be better off.
我认为，总体来说在全球范围内，风险投资、创业和科技发展都将看到一个长期繁荣的景象，我们的蓬勃发展将会持续，除非人们做出疯狂举动。因此从长远来看，人类会变得越来越好，大家都会得到富裕。
Tim Draper: The internet has really extraordinary transformed many countries including China.
互联网使很多国家发生巨大变革，中国既是如此。
Tim Draper: It transformed industries like communications and information, and gaming and entertainment. The internet has a big effect on all of those industries. Now we have bitcoin and all the associated technologies with bitcoin, the block chain, the smart contracts, and then all of the artificial intelligence that's tied to all the big data and deep learning that's happening. You put all that together. This will be a bigger wave than the internet wave. This will be bigger and more transformative than anyway we've ever had in the history of the world.
互联网变革了通信产业、游戏和娱乐等行业，对所有行业都产生了非常大的影响。而现在我们有了比特币和所有与之相关的技术——区块链、智能合约、人工智能，以及所有与这些紧密连接的大数据、深度学习。如果你把这些都联系在一起，你会发现这将是一个比互联网浪潮更大的浪潮。它将比我们此前发生的任何技术革命都具有更大的变革性和颠覆性。
Grace: How big that will be?
谷昕容：这会是多大的市场？
Tim Draper: The internet affected were sort of ten to a hundred billion dollars in market size. The industries that are affected by bitcoin in the associated technologies are in the trillions, trillions of dollars. They are finance and banking and commerce and real-estate, insurance and healthcar. And government were also affected. They're gonna be improved quite a bit because of these decentralized currencies.
互联网影响的市场规模大约在100亿到1000亿美元之间。而受到比特币和其相关技术影响的行业将是数万亿美元级别的。这些受影响的行业是金融、银行、商业、地产、保险和医疗保健。同时也包括政府，政府也将因为分布式货币而得到改进。
Grace: How far that will be?
谷昕容：时间点是多久？
Tim Draper: Yeah, well, it'll be one thing at a time. Finance is already being transformed.
可能一次只能实现一件事情。金融领域已经在发生改变。
Tim Draper: Banking is already changing, companies like coinbase serving finance have in effect created a new banking system in a more efficient, less friction banking system that's global.
银行业正在发生变革，像Coinbase 这样的金融服务公司实际上正在创造一个全新的更加高效、更少摩擦的全球性银行系统。
Tim Draper: For these crypto currencies, that is the beginning, of the decentralization of the whole world, where we all the geographic borders fall even farther, and we all become one big world. And I think that world is coming very soon, I think very soon, in the countries that benefit the most will be the most open to the new decentralized world. Other countries that closed down, I think will be left behind. It's a really interesting time.
加密货币的出现将是整个世界去中心化的开始，所有的地理边界都将被打破，我们都成为同一个大世界。我认为这样的世界会很快到来，那些受益最多的国家，对新的去中心化的世界将是最开放的；而其他不接受的国家，我想会被甩在后面。这真是个有趣的时代。
Tim Draper: Totally believe that I can envision it completely where we're no longer using seven billion dollars, because they are the old way. It's like carrying around a fistful of cash or coins. That's the old way. That's the fiat currency. That's the political currency.
我坚信这一点，我完全可以预见到，终有一天我们将不再使用70亿美元，因为它一定会被淘汰。就好比我们随身携带一大把现金或硬币，都会过时的。那些是法定货币、政治货币。
Grace: Do you still believe that the coin will be like 250,000 dollars?
谷昕容：现在你还坚信到2025年比特币会涨到25万美元一枚吗？
Tim Draper: Yes, 250,000 by 2022 or 2023. But it'll be in that time frame. Yes, because bitcoin is just a better currency, it’s better than the Renminbi, and it’s better than the dollar. It's certainly a lot better than the Argentine Peso or the Nigerian Naira. Those dropped 50% a year every year. So it's a lot better than those.
是的，到2022年或2023年将达到25万美元，但那是一个时间段。就是因为比特币是更好的货币，它比人民币更好，也比美元好。当然比阿根廷比索和尼日利亚奈拉要好得更多。那些货币每年都要贬值50%，所以比特币比他们好多了。
Tim Draper: But currencies tied to a political force are never going to be as good as a decentralized currency that's global and open. And all we really need is to make it easy to pay in bitcoin to pay you when you go to Starbucks, or pay for a house or pay for a car or pay for whatever. If you can pay easily in bitcoin, and it's gotta get easier and easier, then you just got a better currency, and so people will move to that currency. As they moved to that currency, the network becomes bigger and bigger and bigger and the bitcoin becomes more valuable.
政府发行的货币永远不会像去中心化货币那样好，因为后者是国际化的、开放式的。我们真正需要做的就是，让人们用比特币更加方便地购买星巴克咖啡，买房子、汽车，以及支付任何东西。如果你能用比特币轻松支付，这一切变得越来越容易，那么你就得到了一种更好的货币，这样人们就会转向这种货币。随着他们转向这种货币，这个网络会变得越来越大，比特币也就会变得越来越有价值。
Grace: Why is the time 2022?
谷昕容：为什么是2022这个时间点？
Tim Draper: Because I think a lot of the engineers need a couple of years to do the development work to get to the point where you and I can just take our bitcoin and buy coffee with it.
因为我认为很多工程师需要几年的时间来做开发工作，以达到你和我都可以拿着我们的比特币买咖啡的目的。
Grace: But now the market is very down.
谷昕容： 但是目前市场很低迷。
Tim Draper: I know that always happens, though. That’s the same thing happened with the internet. There was the dot com boom, and then there was the bust, and then there was amazon. And amazon just grew and grew and grew and all the commerce companies, they all became quite valuable. And much more valuable than even the top of the boom. So I suspect we'll see the same kind of thing. And It's you got the earlier adopters, and then you have this point where everybody is sort of saying, wait, I can't use it yet. And then as people, then there will be new use for it. And you'll start growing and growing.
我知道这样的事情总是会发生的。互联网也是经历了这样的过程，从互联网泡沫繁荣到破裂，再后来出现了亚马逊。随着亚马逊的不断发展壮大，所有的电子商务公司都变得非常有价值，而且比泡沫最顶峰的时候估值还要高。所以，我想这样的事情会同样发生在比特币身上。如果你是非常早期的参与者，这时候周围的每一个人都会说，等等，我还不能用它。但是后来会有更多新的使用者加入进来，那么你的比特币就会不断增值。
硅谷风投大佬普遍最看好两大AI+赛道：
医疗健康+自动驾驶
Grace: As a venture capital, how far away the techonology you tend to invest, less than five years or 5-10 years?
谷昕容：作为早期风险投资，你会倾向于投资一项多久可以落地的技术，是5年之内，还是5至10年？
Tim Draper: I like to invest for five years to ten years out where a product. I'll invest then the product will hit the market in one or two years, and then it will start to spread. And it might be fifteen years before it spreads all the way around the globe, but it's probably five years before the world realizes it's a winner.
我喜欢投资未来5到10年的产品。这个产品可能将在未来1到2年内上市，然后它将开始传播，可能需要15年的时间它才可能传遍全世界。但是一般来说，我会在全世界都意识到它是赢家之前5年就开始投资它了。
Grace: Which sepecifc sector you would be most interested in investing?
谷昕容：有哪些具体的领域是你认为必须要投资的？
Tim Draper: AI and bitcoin, I like both. It's interesting because bitcoin creates the blockchain, which allows for data to be well protected. And then data on the other side can be mined for really interesting information.
人工智能和比特币，两者我都喜欢。有趣的是比特币创造了区块链，区块链技术使数据得到很好的保护，然后数据可以被挖掘来获取真正有趣的信息。
Tim Draper: We have a company which is called cloud medics. What they do is they can do a better job of evaluating your illness than a doctor can. They are the artificial intelligence took the doctor test and got 86, whereas the average doctor got a 76 on this test, and it takes a 70 to pass. So our artificial intelligence is doing a better job of diagnosing patients than most doctors. And when combined with a doctor, the AI scored a 91. So what that means to me is in the future, we will have all of our data medical records up in the cloud.
我们投资了一家做“云医疗”的公司，他们利用人工智能、深度学习，能做到比医生更准确地诊断病人的病情。人工智能做医生诊疗测试，得了86分，而普通医生做这项测试平均得76分，70分是及格线。因此，我们的人工智能比大多数医生在诊断病人方面做得更好。而当人工智能与医生相结合时，可以得到91分。对我来说这意味着，未来我们将把所有的医疗健康数据记录都放在云端。
Tim Draper: But in addition to medical records, it will be our blood test results in our genetic history. And then there will be other things like what are our fitness results or what we had for breakfast, or who we've met, where we've traveled, what we've been exposed to, all that data will be up there. So no doctor could possibly know all the things that you've been exposed to, but with enough devices, we will be able to send that data to the cloud, and they may find the headache for you may mean a very different thing from a headache from me. For me, it might be I was bitten by a tick; for you it might be you have a migrants from too much drinking the night before, whatever.
除了病例数据外，还有验血结果，还包括很多其他的事情，比如我们的健康数据，早餐吃的是什么，我们见过谁，去过哪里，接触过什么，所有的数据都会在云端。没有医生可能知道你所有与外界接触的事情，但是如果拥有足够的设备，我们就能将数据发送到云端。通过数据分析，人工智能会判断出你的头痛与我的头痛的原因截然不同。对我来说，可能是因为被蜱虫咬伤了；而对你来说，可能是因为前一天晚上喝了太多酒。
Tim Draper: So we might all have different genetics. So this is going to be a really interesting time in health care. I think that's going to be one of the things.
我们可能都有不同的基因。所以对于医疗健康领域这将是非常有意思的时代，当然这只是诸多事情之一。
Grace: How about the autonomous cars?
谷昕容：那么关于自动驾驶呢？
Tim Draper: We invested in Cruise automation. The entrepreneur took me for a test drive when he was just getting started. We went for this drive and everything was fine, then we came to an intersection, the car took a sharp left turn into traffic and it was right about then that I decided I would invest, eventhough that was a disaster, I thought all we need to do is just improve the software, because everything else seems to be working. So I made that investment that was Cruise automation, General Motors bought it for a billion dollars about a year later.
我们投资了Cruise。在这家公司刚创立不久的时候，创始人带我去试驾。刚开始一切都很好，然后我们来到一个十字路口，突然那辆车急速左转，朝着前面很多车就冲过去了。就在那个刹那，我决定投资它，尽管那是一场灾难，但我想我们所要做的只是改进软件，因为其他的方面都没有问题。大约一年后，通用汽车以10亿美元的价格收购了Cruise。
DFJ 投资的“犀牛”（估值100亿美元）和“独角兽”（估值10亿美元）
相信去中心化的世界，
中美之间的竞争应以为人民谋福祉为目的
Grace: So how do you think that the the competition in the hightech area between China and the US?
谷昕容：你怎么看待中美两国在科技领域的竞争？
Tim Draper: I don't look at it is between anybody. Competition is amongst businesses but has nothing to do with the borders. It's Huawei and Cisco. It's Baidu and Google. It's they are Chinese or they're big, huge businesses that are spread all the way around the world.
我并不认为国家之前应该存在这样的竞争。企业间的竞争与国界无关，这是华为和思科，百度和谷歌之间的竞争。他们是中国企业，也是遍布世界各地的跨国企业。
Tim Draper: I believe that those borders are open and we are one big globe, and it's not just China against the US or US and Mexico's issues or whatever. I think it's mostly we're all just people and we're trying to get along and we're trying to do business with each other, because we are all better off the more connections we make, the more deals that we make. If you and I decide to make a deal, we're both better off because you're happy with it, and I'm happy with it. We're both better off.
我相信，边界会被打开，我们拥有一个世界，而不应该仅是中国和美国、美国和墨西哥对抗的问题或者是其他任何问题。我们都是普通人，我们渴望和睦相处，我们希望和对方做生意，因为我们之间的联系越多，达成的交易越多，我们彼此都会变得更好。如果你和我决定做一笔交易，我们都会受益，因为你很满意，我也很满意，我们都会变得更好。
Tim Draper: I think that's the same thing with all businesses, and it's probably you know the same thing with governments. Government should be figuring out how to connect and be linked rather than trying to to compete in any way. I mean they should compete for citizens in a way, and that's a healthy way to compete. It's like how do I make you wanna live in the US, how do they make me want to live in China? How are they competing in that way? I think that is a terrific that's like a new science, the competitiveness of governments, which government is the most interesting for a business person to work from, which government is the best in education, which government has created the best pension system, the best health care. I think that's something to compete on.
我认为所有的商业应该都是这样的逻辑，政府也应该是这样的。政府应该弄清楚如何连接和联系，而不是试图以任何方式竞争。我认为他们可以在某种程度上为公民竞争，这是一种健康的竞争方式。比如政府如何能够让你想居住在美国，让我想住在中国，他们是如何以这种方式竞争的，我认为这是一门伟大的科学。政府的竞争力是一门新的科学，哪个政府对企业家来说最有吸引力，哪个政府在教育方面做的最好，哪个政府创造了最好的养老金制度，提供了最好的医疗保健。我觉得这是值得竞争的。
Tim Draper: You want to see what kind of trade connection you can make not what kind of trade war you can create. That makes no sense It’s a media construct. I think the countries, you know, ideally, the two presidents get together and they say, how do we work together? How do we make it so that citizens from both our countries don't feel like there's a border between us.
我们应该考虑建立什么样的贸易联系，而不是什么样的贸易战，贸易战毫无意义，这是媒体构建出来的词汇。我认为，在理想情况下，中美两国领导人应该坐在一起，讨论我们该如何合作，如何才能做到让两国的人民不觉得两国之间有界限和隔阂。
Tim Draper: Because the world's going that way. It is going more frictionless. It's going more transparent. So if you run a country, you get on board or you try to resist it, and by resisting it, you will lose. Because we've evolved, humanity has evolved, the borders no longer being that much, and they're going to mean less and less.
因为世界是朝着这个方向发展的，世界会变得更加透明，摩擦会越来越少。如果你是一个国家的管理者，而你抵制这样的趋势，你可能会失去这个时代。因为社会在进化，人类在进步，我们不需要那么多隔离和界限，边界的意义正在减少。
培养创业英雄 创业者应该有一点疯狂
Grace： I saw some super heroes on the wall of your Draper University. You like super heros?!
谷昕容：我看到硅谷英雄学院的墙壁上了花了很多漫画里的英雄人物。您是崇拜超级英雄的吧？
Tim Draper: Our whole theme here is super heroes. Superheroes are imaginative. They come up with new ways of thinking in new ways of operating. And we use it for draper university. We use it for hero city. We're always read my book is called out to be the startup hero where that's the kind of way we're always thinking, think forward. How do you improve the world?
Tim Draper: 超级英雄是我们的核心主题。超级英雄富有想象力，他们经常创造出新的想法、新的运作方式。超级英雄主题贯穿在我们的英雄学院和英雄城市，我的书也是以《如何成为超级创业英雄》来命名的。超级英雄总能前瞻性地思考，如何将世界变得更美好。
Grace: Entrepreneurship can be taught?
谷昕容：创业可以被教授吗？
Tim Draper: Yeah, isn't that funny? That's what people were telling me. They said entrepreneurship can’t be taught. And so then I just went and did it. I taught 1000 entrepreneurs with Draper University. They've created 350 companies from 76 different countries.
是的，这很搞笑吧。人们通常这样告诉我，创业和企业家精神是不可以被传授的，但是我就非要尝试。我在英雄学院教了1000名企业家。他们来自76个不同的国家，已经创建了350家公司。
Tim Draper: So I think, yeah, that entrepreneurship can be taught. We just did. We proved that it could be taught because people used to say entrepreneurship can't be taught. Whenever anybody says something can’t happen. I always think how would that happen? What if we decided we wanted to do that? How would that happen? And that's what we did. And it worked. The schools are huge success, a huge success.
所以我认为，创业可以被教授，事实证明我们做到了。每当有人说什么事不可能发生，我就会想如果真的发生了呢？如果我们决定这么做，会怎么样？我们就是这么做的，我们做到了。英雄学院取得了巨大的成功。
Grace: How do you measure the success?
谷昕容：如何衡量成功？
Tim Draper: Well, financially for one, we have three students left here after they learned about bitcoin. And they started quantum. Quantum now is the No. 20 token in the world today. That company got to be seven billion dollar token. Now it's one billion, but it's still a big deal.
从创业公司财务角度来说，我举两个例子。我们曾经有三位学员在英雄学院学习了比特币之后创立了量子链和量子币。目前，量子币已经是当今世界第20大代币，他们公司拥有70亿美元的代币，当然现在的价值是10亿美元，不过这仍然是非常大的公司。
Tim Draper: Another woman created a fine fiber line that goes up the follow bin that can determine whether a woman has cancer. And that got FDA approval, and she sold the business for 275 million dollars.
另外有一位女士发明了一条细纤维线，它可以用来判断女性是否患有癌症。后来这个发明得到了FDA的批准，最后她以2.75亿美元的价格卖掉了公司。
Tim Draper: We are only six years old here, and we already have about ten to fifteen companies that have come out of here that are worth in the ten to a hundred million dollar range. And they're starting to employ a lot of people. So yeah, it's a huge success.
我们的英雄学院才做了六年时间，我们已经有大约10-15家估值达到1000万至1亿美元之间，而且他们雇佣了很多人。所以，我想这是巨大的成功。
Tim Draper: This is a major, major success. The real estate around here is tripled in value because of this. Yeah, so amazing things have happened because of Draper University. So we're really pleased. We've got a lot of chinese students who come and they've done very well.
这是最主要的成功。另外，英雄学院附近的地价已经涨到了原来的三倍。所以，很多不可思议的事情都是因为英雄学院而发生，我们为此感到很高兴。我们也有很多来自中国的学院，他们后来回国都发展得很好。
Grace: People say you are crazy, do you agree with that? Do you think crazyness is a must personality for entrepreneurs?
谷昕容：人们说你很疯狂，是冒险大师，你同意这个评价吗？你认为疯狂是创业者必备的特性吗？
Tim Draper: Yeah, I’m not dangerous crazy. I am crazy in trying new things, and I look for entrepreneurs who are just a little bit out there. They are on the on the edge where a lot of people will think what they're doing doesn't make any sense.
是的，但我不是危险的疯子。我只是愿意疯狂地尝试新事物。我寻找的创业者是比正常人疯狂一点。他们处于这样一种边缘，就是很多人会认为他们所做的事情没有任何意义。
Tim Draper: So I will back Elon Musk and Elon says we're going to Mars, and most people think that's crazy. But few people think that's really great. And all the best engineers in the world want to go to work for Elon, because they're gonna figure out how to get people to Mars. And whether they get to whenever they get to Mars, there will be all sorts of interesting things that happen along the way. And Elon will have the best people in the world working for him.
所以我会支持伊隆·马斯克，伊隆说我们要去火星，大多数人认为这很疯狂，很少有人认为这真的很棒。世界上所有最优秀的工程师都想为伊隆工作，他们会想办法把人们带到火星上。无论他们何时能达成梦想，这一路上都会发生各种有趣的事情。伊隆将拥有世界上最优秀的人为他工作。
Tim Draper: I mean it was crazy when I backed Baidu. I mean the idea of a Silicon valley venture capitalists investing any money at all in China back then was ridiculous. Why would anybody invest in china? The idea of the search engine made no sense. There weren't even that many computers in China at that time. So, yeah, a little crazy is ok. I want to back those people who are a little crazy because I know those are the ones will really transform the world.
我当时投资百度，也被认为是很疯狂的举动。那时候硅谷的风险投资家在中国投资是非常荒谬的想法。为什么会有人在中国投资？搜索引擎的想法毫无意义，当时中国甚至都没有那么多的电脑。所以，对于投资和创业来说，需要有一点疯狂。我想去支持那些有点疯狂的人，因为我知道他们将会是真正改变世界的人。
在采访结束的时候，Tim送给我一本他的原版著作“How to be the Startup Hero”，并在上面写下这样的寄语：
To Grace，
Anything is possible.
You are a great interviewer.
Go make good things happen in China and around the world. Remenber：
Don't say "trade war", say "trade cooperation".
Best,
Tim Draper
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