View: Modi’s ‘thalinomics’ is a recipe for bad economy
觀點：莫迪的“大盤菜經濟學”是糟糕經濟的處方
Indian food, when done right, comes in a thali — a metal plate with half a dozen or more little bowls of vegetables, pickles, and so on. The word of the week in India is “thalinomics”: The go nment’s official survey of the Indian economy, published a few days ago, introduced the word to talk about how food was getting cheaper for people across the country. But it is now being used to talk about the go nment’s entire approach to the Indian economy — a little bit of this, a little bit of that, all mixed up together till you are unsure what you’re eating.
印度菜做好後，會裝在一個 thali——金屬淺盤裡，裡面有6份及以上的小碗蔬菜、泡菜等等。在印度，本週的關鍵詞是“大盤菜經濟學”(thalinomics)：前些天公佈的有關印度經濟的官方調查引入了“大盤菜經濟學”(thalinomics)一詞，談論印度各地的食品如何變得越來越便宜。但現在這個詞被用於評價政府對印度經濟的整體策略——這個來一點，那個來一點，一鍋大雜燴，讓你都不確定自己吃的是什麼。
What works for food doesn’t quite work when it comes to economic policy. Every year at the end of January the Indian finance minister presents the federal budget, which is not just a statement of revenue and expenditure but also a guide to policy-making in the coming year. Given the intensity of India’s slowdown — six successive quarters of slowing growth, taking it down from almost 8% to 4.5%, a six-year low — all that Indian investors and consumers really wanted from their go nment at this point was some clarity. What is its plan? How does it intend to reverse the slowdown and raise India’s growth trajectory? By that standard, the only one that matters, the go nment’s budget — presented on Saturday — was a failure. It tried to do too much, and ended up serving a mismatched platter of competing flavors.
對糧食有效的政策對於經濟政策並不十分奏效。每年1月底，印度財政部長都會提交聯邦預算，這不僅是一份收入和支出的報表，也是對來年政府決策的指導。考慮到印度經濟放緩的嚴重程度——連續6個季度增長放緩，從近8%降至4.5%，降至6年來的最低值——印度投資者和消費者此時此刻只希望獲得政府的明確表態。政府的計劃是什麼？打算如何扭轉經濟放緩趨勢，提拉印度的增長軌跡？按照這個唯一重要的標準，政府在週六提交的預算就是個失敗。它想要的太多，結果端上來的是一盤風味完全無法融合的菜。
Some people hoped that the go nment would junk its fiscal targets and spend its way out of trouble — a bad idea, as I have argued earlier, albeit one that might have temporarily increased business confidence. Others prayed it would stick to its deficit reduction targets, in order to restore credibility to its battered reputation. In the end, the budget took a middle course — it allowed a fiscal slippage of 0.5% of GDP, to 3.5%. Not enough to be considered a real stimulus, but not quite enough to save ratings agencies from tut-tutting either. The finance minister claimed to be cutting middle-class taxes, but most taxpayers are unlikely to benefit from the budget’s changes. And the stock market — which fell 2.4% after the budget was presented — was dismayed that a tax on long-term capital gains stayed in place.
一些人希望政府放棄其財政目標，通過投資擺脫困境——正如我早些時候所指出的，這是一個壞主意，儘管它可能暫時增強了商業信心。另一些人則祈禱政府堅持削減赤字的目標，以恢復其受損的信譽。最後，政府預算採取了中間路線——允許財政支出從GDP中下調0.5%到3.5%。這算不上真正的刺激，但也不至於讓評級機構唏噓。財政部長聲稱要削減中產階級的稅收，但大多數納稅人都不太可能從預算的變化中受益。在預算公佈後，股市下跌了2.4%，股市對長期資本利得稅依然存在感到很失望。
The go nment was similarly confused about trade. One section of the finance minister’s speech insisted that India must become part of the global value chains that are shifting slowly away from mainland China; but another, larger section was devoted to the sort of protectionist rhetoric we last heard in the socialist, isolationist 1970s. Tariffs were raised on a slew of products to protect Indian manufacturing. India continues to close itself off to trade when it should be opening up.
政府對貿易也同樣感到困惑。印度財政部長講話中堅稱，印度必須成為全球價值鏈的一部分，而全球價值鏈正在緩慢地從中國大陸撤離；但說的更多的是我們在上世紀70年代社會主義孤立主義時期最後聽到的那種保護主義言論。為了保護印度的製造業，印度提高了一系列產品的關稅。印度在應該開放的時候繼續關閉貿易。
Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, likes to be seen as an economic reformer but his go nment’s instincts have revealed themselves as anything but reformist. What’s now clear is that it doesn’t have a coherent agenda, either. Moreover, Modi’s go nment has spent so much time talking up its own achievements that, when faced with a crisis, it can’t afford to acknowledge its mistakes and take any real corrective action.
印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪喜歡自詡經濟改革家，但他領導的政府顯示，他們絕不是改革派。現在很清楚的是，政府沒有一個連貫的思路。此外，莫迪政府花了太多時間吹噓自己的成就，以至於在面臨危機時，不願承認自己的錯誤並採取任何真正的糾正行動。
The question for Indian investors now is: What could force the go nment to focus on the economy? The slowdown wasn’t enough. Voters seem to care more about social issues. Big business is so scared of the Indian state that it never speaks up. Buried in the budget numbers is one answer to investors’ questions about what will make the go nment move, albeit one that will dismay a lot of people: the bond market, and ratings agencies.
印度投資者現在面臨的問題是：怎樣才能迫使政府專注於經濟？經濟放緩還不夠嚴重。選民似乎更關心社會問題。大企業非常害怕印度政府，從不敢說。在這些預算數字中，有一個答案可以回答投資者提出的政府將何去何從的問題，儘管這個問題會讓很多人失望：債券市場和評級機構。
This is a pretty good idea. There’s no reason why Indians’ limited household savings should be the only ones raided by the go nment to fund its spending. Indian bureaucrats have always been sniffy about foreign capital, but they can no longer afford to put on airs. Yet depending on foreign capital to finance the deficit isn’t going be straightforward if the go nment keeps overspending. Moody’s Investors Service pointed out that “India’s general go nment debt is already significantly higher than the average for Baa-rated sovereigns”; the agency had shifted its outlook to negative late last year. So good news of a sort, I suppose: In deciding to depend upon global pools of capital, India’s go nment will be forced to listen to at least one group of people who care about growth and investment. It’s up to the bond markets now to do what nobody else has: Get Modi focused on the economy.
這是個好主意。印度人有限的家庭儲蓄沒有理由成為政府掠奪的唯一資金來源。印度的官僚們一直對外資嗤之以鼻，但他們再也不能裝腔作勢了。但如果政府繼續過度支出，依靠外國資本為赤字融資也不是件容易的事情。穆迪投資者服務公司指出，“印度的一般政府債務已經明顯高於Baa評級主權債務的平均水平”；去年年底，該機構將印度的經濟前景調為負面。因此，我認為這算是一個好消息：在決定依賴全球資本池時，印度政府將被迫聽取至少一群關心增長和投資的人的意見。現在輪到債券市場做別人沒做過的事了：讓莫迪專注於經濟。
以下是《印度經濟時報》網站網友評論：
Puthumbaka Raghu Kumar
Finance Ministry is in the hands of Psuedo economists and nothing better can be expected.
財政部掌握在Psuedo經濟學家手中，不用指望能有什麼好了。
Raj Tillan
finance has be in the hands of trusted ones ...
金融已掌握在可信任的人手中…
Ashish Bagade
In addition to Thalieconomics, the go nment should consider increases in rents/house prices and utilities for any meaningful comparison.
除了大盤菜經濟，政府還應該注意租金/房價和公用事業的上漲，以便進行有意義的比較。
Jaywant Nitturkar
This moron Mihir does not understand the life of ordinary man...for them inflation is their biggest enemy...instead of appreciating the fact that food plate has become more affordable, he is mocking...another stupid comment of his"Govt. living beyond its means..." The Deficit in America and most of the world is far higher than that of India...fact that he disingenuously forgot to mention,
這個笨蛋米希爾不瞭解普通人的生活……對他們來說，通貨膨脹是他們最大的敵人…他非但沒有意識到菜盤子變得更便宜了，反而在嘲笑……對他的“政府”又做了個愚蠢的評論：入不敷出……”美國和世界大部分地區的赤字遠遠高於印度。他卻刻意避而不提。
Bhojmanb
this media group is BJP supporter
這個媒體集團是人民黨的支持者。
Greg
Good Article
這是一篇好文章。
Madhukar Malhotra
Think Mihir Sharma is a diehard socialist and not an open minded economist he is touted to be. India will shine after the dirt of communal and appeasement politics by previous go nments is reversed and progress is the key word.
我認為米希爾•夏爾馬是一位頑固的社會主義者，而不是人們吹捧的那種思想開放的經濟學家。前幾屆政府的種族主義和綏靖主義政治的汙點被抹去之後，印度將會煥發出光芒，進步才是關鍵。
Raj Tillan
most economists are ideologues.
大多數經濟學家都是理論家。
Russell Ian Duarte
Modi, Seetharaman, AShah and other clowns, when and where was the last time you ate a Veg and A non veg thali, can you be decent enough to order or treat us at your expense,,, of course its our money finally that you get as salary that u will pay.
莫迪，西沙拉曼， AShah和其他小丑，你們最後一次吃素食和非素食大盤菜是在什麼時候、在哪兒，你們能坦蕩地點餐，自己付賬嗎？當然了，最後論起來，那還是我們的錢，你領了工資，付了飯錢。
Raj Tillan
like it or not clowns are wearing crowns
不管你喜不喜歡，小丑都戴著王冠。
Bhojmanb
70 years of Indian history go nment agenda is to built Ram Mandir. in this country we have single Virulogy lab in Pune only. any where the suspect of corona virus detected the samples goes to Pune and that cost 5 days extra due to transportation, every city does not have direct flight to pune.
縱觀印度70年的歷史，政府的目的就是建立拉姆寺廟。我們國家只有浦那的一個病毒實驗室。無論哪個地方發現疑似冠狀病毒，樣本都得送往浦那，交通要多花5天時間，每個城市都沒有直飛浦那的航班。
Hemant Pisat
Yeshwant Sinha time BJP did good on economic fronts.
在Yeshwant Sinha時期，人民黨在經濟方面的表現很好。
Bijul Desai
HONESTLY ...i feel go nment is really confused and not sure of it's economic policies !! Once policy is announced there are multiple tweaking / Changes ..! As a common man Onion price /petrol / chopped rates on Fix deposit / PPF / LC ...hurts ..
老實說……我覺得政府真的很困惑，對自己的經濟政策並不明確!!一旦政策公佈，就會有多種震盪/改變！作為一位普通人，洋蔥價格/汽油/固定存款利率大幅下調/ PPF / LC…都讓百姓受傷。
Raj Tillan
confused so are the highly educated in western economics advisors.. US methods are not apt like veggies can not handle BAT pickles.
困惑的是受過高等教育的西方經濟顧問。美國的方法不適合印度，就像素食者無法忍受蝙蝠泡菜。
Rajesh T
slow down today is the long term effect of demonetisation
今天的放緩是廢鈔令帶來的長期影響。
Raj Tillan
Nehruvian fabian socialist economy with intrusive regulation and financial terrorism on semi literate entrepreneurs
尼赫魯式的費邊社會主義經濟，對半文盲企業家實施干預性監管和金融恐怖主義。
Realdeshbhakt
Mihir,I hope you have passport ready. Modi is narcissistic-insecure man with agenda of vengeance.He is not known for humility or intelligence.
米希爾，我希望你已經準備好了護照。莫迪是一個自戀且缺乏安全感的人，他會報復。他既不謙遜也不聰明。
Raj Tillan
UK is offering good opportunities to Indian investors and advisors
英國為印度投資者和顧問提供了很好的機會。
Ramesh Shah
THIS IS HOW THE 5 TRILLION US D ECONOMIES CAN B BUILT.......
5萬億美元就是這麼吹出來的。
Biju Pols
Modi is uneducated but loaded with Jumlas .. His 18000 paid coolies are defending him in the social media. Modi loot the common man to pay to his coolies
莫迪沒受過教育…他僱傭的18000名水軍在社交媒體上為他辯護。莫迪搶劫老百姓來付酬金。
Bhojmanb
No any state go nment in India is interested in Public Transport system in the bigger cities. Public transport should be encouraged and that will have bigger impact of reducing road accidents and environmental pollution, less road maintenance etc. but neither the center nor any state Government work for public betterment all are in the politics for their family gain, land grabbing and amass of wealth for their kin.
印度沒有哪個邦的政府對大城市的公共交通系統感興趣。這就是痛苦所在。應該鼓勵公共交通，對減少交通事故和環境汙染帶去更大影響，也會減少道路養護壓力，但無論是中央還是各邦政府都沒有致力於改善公共交通，他們都為了各自的家庭利益、攫取土地、為親屬聚斂財富而投身政壇。
Raman
You must be educated from RSS school to come with such dumb ideas. Dumbos like you elected imbecile like Modi.
你肯定接受的是RSS學校的教育，才會有這種愚蠢的想法。你們這些蠢蛋推選出了莫迪這樣的低能兒。
Raj Tillan
we should consult desi economists like Arun Shouri. Swamy, Gurumurthy, Shaktikant, K K kamath
我們應該諮詢像Arun Shouri, Swamy, Gurumurthy, Shaktikant, K K kamath這樣的經濟學家。
Sudesh Prakash Yadav
Mihir Sharma has a doctorate in spreading negativity about Indian economy. He comes up with silly articles every second day. Epitomizes the paid media with a hidden agenda.
夏爾馬擁有博士學位，傳播對印度經濟負面看法。他每隔一天就寫一些無聊的文章。這是付費媒體的軟文。
AG
Feku maharaj has only jumla. No plans or vision for the economy and the country.
莫迪只會窮開心。沒有對經濟和國家制定的計劃或願景。
Gopalpk Krisanaswami
irrespective what govt plans indian economy is more driven by entrepreneur ship of our industry. As Rusi modi use to say if you can succeed in India you can succeed anywhere
不管政府計劃如何，印度經濟更多的是由我們各行業的企業家推動的。正如莫迪過去常說的，如果你能在印度成功，你就能在任何地方成功。
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