The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is causing increasing impacts on global supply chains, disrupting supply, inventories, production, deliveries and more. Simon Croom, Ph.D., professor of supply chain management in the Master’s in Supply Chain Management program at the University of San Diego School of Business, discusses the impacts, what to expect and strategies in this Q&A:
冠状病毒（COVID-19）的爆发正在加速影响全球供应链，扰乱供应、库存、生产、交付甚至更多。西蒙·克鲁姆，哲学博士，圣地亚哥大学商学院供应链管理硕士课程供应链管理教授，在此问与答里讨论冠状病毒疫情的影响、期望及策略：
Question: How has the COVID-19 outbreak impacted global supply chains/supply chain organizations so far, and how far-reaching are the disruptions likely to be?
问：截止当前，冠状病毒疫情对全球供应链/供应链组织的影响如何？并且这些破坏可能有多深远?
Answer: The virus is impacting global supply chains with upstream supply links in the affected regions in China, as well as demand from consumers and retailers in China. So many global manufactured products have some Chinese content — even in the second, third or more tiers removed from the prime manufacturer. Also, the exposure due to factory closures after the typical (Lunar) New Year break is causing disruptions in returning to full production rates. The pressure due to far lower in-transit (pipeline) inventories is presenting significant challenges in continuity of operations.
答：该病毒正在影响中国受影响地区上游供应链的全球供应链，以及中国消费者和零售商的需求。如此众多的全球制成品都包含一些中国元素，甚至在从主要制造商之外的二级，三级或更多层级也是如此。此外，在典型的（农历）新年假期后工厂关闭而爆发的疫情也导致生产完全中断。较低的在途库存所带来的压力对运营的连续性提出了重大挑战。
Most significantly, the impact has risen uncertainty in supply chain planning and forecasting to almost unprecedented levels across so many sectors. Risk strategies dealing with such events struggle to accommodate the potential for mass infection, labor shortages across the supply chain and uncertainty regarding immediate- and medium-range supply and demand. The potential for a black swan bullwhip effect is considerable, in a wide range of sectors.
最重要的是，这种影响使供应链计划和预测中的不确定性上升到许多行业几乎前所未有的水平。处理此类事件的风险策略难以适应潜在的大规模感染，整个供应链中的劳动力短缺以及近期和中期供应与需求的不确定性。在许多领域，黑天鹅牛鞭效应的潜力是巨大的。
Services are also affected, particularly tourism and hospitality, and our own industry of higher education has seen university students and faculty directly impacted due to the quarantine restrictions faced by those who traveled to China for the holidays or international-study experiences. However, retailers are likely to be the hardest-hit sector in the coming weeks and months as inventories dry up and shipments, already reduced, similarly slow down significantly to the point at which few, if any, supplies will be arriving in the U.S. and Europe, leading to empty shelves.
服务也受到影响，尤其是旅游业和酒店业，而我们自己的高等教育行业也由于来华度假或进行国际学习的人所面临的检疫限制，直接影响了大学生和教师。但是，由于库存枯竭和已经减少的出货量，零售商可能会成为未来几周和几个月内受灾最严重的行业，同样，该行业的速度也将显着放缓，以至于几乎没有（如果有的话）货物到达美国和欧洲，导致货架空空荡荡。
The critical factor is obviously containment of the virus. If it is nearing its peak now, the global supply chain impact could be short-lived — possibly into the second quarter, but not the third.
关键因素显然是病毒的遏制。如果现在接近峰值，对全球供应链的影响可能是短暂的，可能持续到第二季度，而不是第三季度。
Q: How and when will we know the full extent?
问：我们如何以及何时知道全部影响范围？
A: The effects are already being felt in short supply chains, but in the coming months, the spread of COVID-19 will be a critical variable in determining precisely what the full extent looks like. It may well be another three to six weeks before the scale of potential disruption becomes apparent. This is largely predicated on the transport time from China to key U.S. ports.
It has been claimed that the impact reduces global gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.3 percent this year, but that’s dependent on the extent of the virus’s spread and efforts by producers and retailers to reclaim lost revenues and output.
答：在短的供应链中已经开始感受到这种影响，但是在接下来的几个月中，COVID-19的传播将成为精确确定整个范围的关键变量。潜在破坏的规模可能还要再等三到六周才能显现出来。这很大程度上取决于从中国到美国主要港口的运输时间。
据称，这种影响使今年的全球国内生产总值（GDP）下降了1.3％，但这取决于病毒的传播程度以及生产商和零售商为弥补损失的收入和产出而做出的努力。
Q: Are all organizations realizing an impact, or only those with ties to China?
问：是所有组织都意识到了该影响，还是只有与中国有关联的组织才有影响？
A: Supply chains are extended beyond immediate contractual relationships, so a supplier may have links to China that the customer may not even be aware of. And there are potential second- or lower-tier suppliers in China to consider. So, organizations could rely on indirect supplies from a domestic provider, but they in turn may have an extensive Chinese supply base.
答：供应链的延伸超出了直接的合同关系，因此供应商可能会与客户建立联系，而客户甚至可能不知道。在中国，有潜在的二级或下级供应商需要考虑。因此，组织可以依靠国内供应商的间接供应，但它们反过来可能拥有广泛的中国供应基础。
Q: How have organizations been mitigating the risks of the outbreak on their supply chains?
问：组织如何减轻疫情爆发对供应链造成的风险？
A: This depends on the inventories held prior to Lunar New Year, including pipeline inventories and alternate sources of supply. Lean practices and sole sourcing naturally exacerbate the problem and impact. Options have included alternate suppliers, regional rather than global sourcing, and the ability to substitute. For example, major retailers could offer an alternative brand or simply replace shelf space dedicated to Chinese-sourced products with different, domestic or non-Chinese supplier products.
答：这取决于农历新年之前的库存，包括在途库存和其他供应来源。精益实践和独家采购自然会加剧问题和影响。选择包括替代供应商，区域而不是全球采购以及替代能力。例如，大型零售商可以提供替代品牌，或者简单地将专用于中国采购产品的货架空间替换为不同的，国内或非中国供应商的产品。
Q: Could these disruptions have been mitigated earlier? How?
问：这些干扰能否早些缓解？以及如何操作？
A: Probably not, except with a more comprehensive and flexible supply strategy. The costs of multiple sources, substitute suppliers, safety stocks and clear visibility across the total supply chain are considerable. As a result, they may not have been deemed worth the speculative investment. Overall, it’s difficult to predict such black-swan events and their precise nature and impact, but many supply chains are lacking even fundamental risk assessments.
答：可能不会，除非有更全面，更灵活的供应策略。多种来源，替代供应商，安全库存和整个供应链中清晰可见的成本相当可观。结果，它们可能不被认为值得投机投资。总体而言，很难预测此类黑天鹅事件及其确切性质和影响，但许多供应链甚至都缺乏基本的风险评估。
Q: What are steps supply managers can take to ensure they are prepared in the event of a similar outbreak in the future?
问：如果将来发生类似的暴发，供应经理可以采取哪些步骤来确保他们做好了准备？
A: They include:
•Being aware of the supply chain beyond second-tier suppliers, which provides far more visibility of the potential impact of global disturbances to supply.
•Implementing a more robust risk assessment and mitigation to identify critical paths in supply chains
• Instituting policies that address potential crisis-event disruptions.
Also, in some sectors, having backup or second sources in multiple areas can offer an insurance policy against local or national disruptions. Holding such inventories in strategic locations — and perhaps collaborating with suppliers on inventory strategies — would provide short-term benefits.
答：它们包括：
•了解除二级供应商之外的供应链，这可以更清楚地了解全球动荡对供应的潜在影响。
•实施更强大的风险评估和缓解措施，以确定供应链中的关键路径
•制定应对潜在危机事件中断的政策。
同样，在某些行业中，在多个区域拥有备用资源或第二资源可以提供针对本地或国家干扰的保险政策。在战略位置保存此类库存-并可能与供应商合作制定库存策略-将提供短期利益。
閱讀更多 虞老師說採購 的文章
