點擊上方藍字 PinPOINT 瞭解更多精彩內容
保銀周評
2020.02.03-02.09
01
市場行情
上證指數：收於2875.96點，整週下跌3.38%
深圳成指：收於10611.55點，整週下跌0.66%
滬深300: 收於3899.87點，整週下跌2.60%
創業板指：收於2015.80點，整週上漲4.57%
恆生指數：收於27404.27點，整週上漲4.15%
*數據來源：wind（2020.02.03-02.09）
02
行業點評
宏觀
2018年6月底，全A質押股份佔總股本比例大於30%的個股數量達到774只，為近幾年高點，質押比例大於30%的個股數量佔總質押股票數量的22.4%。2019年隨著市場反彈，大量高質押比例個股進行了解質押操作，截至2020年1月23日，全A質押比例大於30%的個股大幅下滑至571只，佔總質押股票的數量也下滑至18.7%。結論，A股上市公司股權質押已不再構成系統性風險。
本週是受新型肺炎影響，A股開盤大幅下挫，超過3000只個股開盤跌停，監管暫停了融券業務以抑制市場恐慌性的拋售，後面幾個交易日市場反彈，創業板指甚至新高。北上資金本週合計流入超過300億，滬股通流入180.93億，深股通流入119.66億。
Global junk bond issuance hits monthly record. New issuance through to January 31 amounted to $73.6bn, exceeding any monthly total over the past 25 years, according to Dealogic. Of that, $57.1bn was issued by companies.
The coronavirus had limited impact on US markets so far. The S&P 500 rallied from its Jan 31th week 3% pullback and reached new all-time high last week. With the impressive figure of the Jan nonfarm payrolls increased 225K, the market retreated 0.5% by profit taking. The SPX trend is expected upward if the coronavirus will be stablized gradually.
Onshore market returned from CNY break with CSI300 future limit down on Monday but rebounded 5% throughout the week as market digest more information relating to Coronavirus. Macro fund monetized put hedges and began to purchase upside structures as spot moved higher later in the week. Vol down in SPX and Japan while gamma in HK still elevated.
Financial markets remain volatile this week as investors try to assess potential impacts of the coronavirus. On the margin, risk sentiment remains positive, which is especially evident in the equity markets. Expect volatility to remain over the next few weeks.
AUDUSD fell to 0.6660 on Friday, its lowest since 2009, to close the week a few pips above it. The daily chart shows that technical indicators resumed their declines after correcting extreme oversold conditions, while the pair develops far below all of its moving averages, which supports a bearish continuation.
消費
受疫情影響手遊和在線視頻表現強勁，流水和訂閱情況環比都出現明顯增長；反之目前全國10000多家影院基本全面關閉，僅有幾十家勉強營業，行業短期受到毀滅性衝擊，預計半年內可以見到相當部分的小型院線/獨立影院倒閉。
肺炎爆發以來，消費者短期加大力度採購生活必需品。由於民眾減少出行和居家隔離，生鮮電商和商超到家業務均錄得爆發性增長。根據京東大數據，全站從除夕到初九期間民生類商品成交額增長154%，其中米、面、方便食品、生鮮增幅更高。生鮮平臺例如盒馬、永輝、叮咚買菜和每日優鮮等銷售均錄得明顯增長。雖然商超的線下門店客流短期有所下降，但各地農貿市場停業也會造成部分客流轉移。以永輝為例，根據報道，一月整體商品總銷售額超過125億，錄得高雙位數同比增長。長期來看，疫情有利商超連鎖推進線上到家業務，對拉新和培養消費者習慣幫助較大。
香港這兩週決定提高應對新型肺炎的措施，除了停止旅遊簽證外，還把主要的關口停掉，要求從國內到港的人員需要強制自我隔離14天，估計相關措施會對香港上半年的零售做成重大打擊。就算新型肺炎在之後過去，零售的回覆時間也會比之前更長。除了香港零售，代購及跨境電商也會有比較明顯的影響，對一些網紅的外國品牌可能會有較大的衝擊。
Weekly - Novel coronavirus continues to dominate news on TV and papers in Japan. The government will announce a conter measure next week and it's still unclear whether it will include a fresh travel ban but at thsi point, some TV news are already reporting that number of patients discharged from hospital in both in China and Japan is increasing fast i.e. positive news. The negative sentiment might take some time to die down but but clearly people started to see silver lining. In the market, almost all of companies which have substantial China/tourist exposure were sold off then bought back to some degree. However I expect to see some difference in colour by fundamentals and types of exposure e.g. whehter current travel ban leaves pent-up demands or gone is just gone.
TMT
we see labor force retuning to work a major concern in Feb. Some sellside suggest only see full recovery in March assuming no further major outbreak of coronavirus. SZ remains a major concern which might be a major impact on smartphone supply chain .
Beacuse of plants location and holiday arrangement of CNY, the downstream of China solar industry is influenced by the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia more than upstream. We observe full-capacity production of polysilicon and wafer, and experting less than 5% influence after CNY. While due to lack of logistics, the module producer can't get enough components, the production is delayed. However, the end-user demand is still strong globally.
製造業
製造業企業，受下游復工延遲和運輸受限的影響，產品庫存積累較為為突出，已經有不少企業採取降負荷生產來緩解壓力，因防控疫情，下游復工進度大概率會比較遲緩。對於連續化生產的上游環節，特別是石化產品，去庫存壓力大，一季度或上半年都將面臨供大於求的局面。
由於本地生產人員佔比和生產環境的差異，從製造和工程行業的復工時間節點來看，大中型製造業
Recent discussion with an IT supply chain revealed a few potential challenges when factories restarts. 1) there could be labor shortage as workers either don't want to go back or a disruption on transportation links, 2) the upstream material suppliers readiness to supply, 3) the downstream customers readiness to receive shipment, 4) logistics. Demand recovery rate might also be a big unknown. There remain a high uncertainties on both supply and demand side.
醫藥健康
上週醫藥板塊表現亮眼，只要能跟疫情有一點沾邊的醫藥股就會有大幅上漲，市場炒作氣氛濃郁。從非典經驗來看，疫情過後，醫藥股會跑輸大市，此次如何表現拭目以待。
受疫情影響，目前血製品中的靜丙需求量爆發，短期由於採漿量下降供給短缺，靜丙醫院終端價格受國家管控雖沒變，但出廠價有所提升，經銷商返利在減少，不過從長期來看，疫情消退供需關係平衡後，價格預計會回落。
汽車
Automobile OEM Earnings: 3Q20 operating earnings delivery by Auto OEMs has been in line or better than expected. 2W OEMs delivered beat across the board (6-11%) and 4Ws were a mixed bag. Among 4Ws, while MM (Tractors and PVs) delivered marginal beat , Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors disappointed with EBIDTA miss of 10-18%. 2 things common across OEMs 1) ASPs were under pressure led by discounts and inferior mix 2) The EBIDTA margins were supported by commodity cost benefits and internal cost controls. Since most management commentary were subdued on near term demand and no visible commodity benefits anymore, EPS upgrade despite beats have been very minimal. Going ahead in absence of any fiscal boost from Budget 2020, the sector by and large doesn’t have any near term trigger and hence company specific events/self-help measures would decide stock performance in 1HCY2020. Would expect tractor companies to outperform followed by PV stocks. 2W will continue to face uncertainty of consumer behavior/sentiment in wake of large price hike (10-15%) as they transmission into New Emission norms.
THE END
閱讀更多 PinPOINT保銀投資 的文章
