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保银周评
2020.02.03-02.09
01
市场行情
上证指数：收于2875.96点，整周下跌3.38%
深圳成指：收于10611.55点，整周下跌0.66%
沪深300: 收于3899.87点，整周下跌2.60%
创业板指：收于2015.80点，整周上涨4.57%
恒生指数：收于27404.27点，整周上涨4.15%
*数据来源：wind（2020.02.03-02.09）
02
行业点评
宏观
2018年6月底，全A质押股份占总股本比例大于30%的个股数量达到774只，为近几年高点，质押比例大于30%的个股数量占总质押股票数量的22.4%。2019年随着市场反弹，大量高质押比例个股进行了解质押操作，截至2020年1月23日，全A质押比例大于30%的个股大幅下滑至571只，占总质押股票的数量也下滑至18.7%。结论，A股上市公司股权质押已不再构成系统性风险。
本周是受新型肺炎影响，A股开盘大幅下挫，超过3000只个股开盘跌停，监管暂停了融券业务以抑制市场恐慌性的抛售，后面几个交易日市场反弹，创业板指甚至新高。北上资金本周合计流入超过300亿，沪股通流入180.93亿，深股通流入119.66亿。
Global junk bond issuance hits monthly record. New issuance through to January 31 amounted to $73.6bn, exceeding any monthly total over the past 25 years, according to Dealogic. Of that, $57.1bn was issued by companies.
The coronavirus had limited impact on US markets so far. The S&P 500 rallied from its Jan 31th week 3% pullback and reached new all-time high last week. With the impressive figure of the Jan nonfarm payrolls increased 225K, the market retreated 0.5% by profit taking. The SPX trend is expected upward if the coronavirus will be stablized gradually.
Onshore market returned from CNY break with CSI300 future limit down on Monday but rebounded 5% throughout the week as market digest more information relating to Coronavirus. Macro fund monetized put hedges and began to purchase upside structures as spot moved higher later in the week. Vol down in SPX and Japan while gamma in HK still elevated.
Financial markets remain volatile this week as investors try to assess potential impacts of the coronavirus. On the margin, risk sentiment remains positive, which is especially evident in the equity markets. Expect volatility to remain over the next few weeks.
AUDUSD fell to 0.6660 on Friday, its lowest since 2009, to close the week a few pips above it. The daily chart shows that technical indicators resumed their declines after correcting extreme oversold conditions, while the pair develops far below all of its moving averages, which supports a bearish continuation.
消费
受疫情影响手游和在线视频表现强劲，流水和订阅情况环比都出现明显增长；反之目前全国10000多家影院基本全面关闭，仅有几十家勉强营业，行业短期受到毁灭性冲击，预计半年内可以见到相当部分的小型院线/独立影院倒闭。
肺炎爆发以来，消费者短期加大力度采购生活必需品。由于民众减少出行和居家隔离，生鲜电商和商超到家业务均录得爆发性增长。根据京东大数据，全站从除夕到初九期间民生类商品成交额增长154%，其中米、面、方便食品、生鲜增幅更高。生鲜平台例如盒马、永辉、叮咚买菜和每日优鲜等销售均录得明显增长。虽然商超的线下门店客流短期有所下降，但各地农贸市场停业也会造成部分客流转移。以永辉为例，根据报道，一月整体商品总销售额超过125亿，录得高双位数同比增长。长期来看，疫情有利商超连锁推进线上到家业务，对拉新和培养消费者习惯帮助较大。
香港这两周决定提高应对新型肺炎的措施，除了停止旅游签证外，还把主要的关口停掉，要求从国内到港的人员需要强制自我隔离14天，估计相关措施会对香港上半年的零售做成重大打击。就算新型肺炎在之后过去，零售的回复时间也会比之前更长。除了香港零售，代购及跨境电商也会有比较明显的影响，对一些网红的外国品牌可能会有较大的冲击。
Weekly - Novel coronavirus continues to dominate news on TV and papers in Japan. The government will announce a conter measure next week and it's still unclear whether it will include a fresh travel ban but at thsi point, some TV news are already reporting that number of patients discharged from hospital in both in China and Japan is increasing fast i.e. positive news. The negative sentiment might take some time to die down but but clearly people started to see silver lining. In the market, almost all of companies which have substantial China/tourist exposure were sold off then bought back to some degree. However I expect to see some difference in colour by fundamentals and types of exposure e.g. whehter current travel ban leaves pent-up demands or gone is just gone.
TMT
we see labor force retuning to work a major concern in Feb. Some sellside suggest only see full recovery in March assuming no further major outbreak of coronavirus. SZ remains a major concern which might be a major impact on smartphone supply chain .
Beacuse of plants location and holiday arrangement of CNY, the downstream of China solar industry is influenced by the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia more than upstream. We observe full-capacity production of polysilicon and wafer, and experting less than 5% influence after CNY. While due to lack of logistics, the module producer can't get enough components, the production is delayed. However, the end-user demand is still strong globally.
制造业
制造业企业，受下游复工延迟和运输受限的影响，产品库存积累较为为突出，已经有不少企业采取降负荷生产来缓解压力，因防控疫情，下游复工进度大概率会比较迟缓。对于连续化生产的上游环节，特别是石化产品，去库存压力大，一季度或上半年都将面临供大于求的局面。
由于本地生产人员占比和生产环境的差异，从制造和工程行业的复工时间节点来看，大中型制造业
Recent discussion with an IT supply chain revealed a few potential challenges when factories restarts. 1) there could be labor shortage as workers either don't want to go back or a disruption on transportation links, 2) the upstream material suppliers readiness to supply, 3) the downstream customers readiness to receive shipment, 4) logistics. Demand recovery rate might also be a big unknown. There remain a high uncertainties on both supply and demand side.
医药健康
上周医药板块表现亮眼，只要能跟疫情有一点沾边的医药股就会有大幅上涨，市场炒作气氛浓郁。从非典经验来看，疫情过后，医药股会跑输大市，此次如何表现拭目以待。
受疫情影响，目前血制品中的静丙需求量爆发，短期由于采浆量下降供给短缺，静丙医院终端价格受国家管控虽没变，但出厂价有所提升，经销商返利在减少，不过从长期来看，疫情消退供需关系平衡后，价格预计会回落。
汽车
Automobile OEM Earnings: 3Q20 operating earnings delivery by Auto OEMs has been in line or better than expected. 2W OEMs delivered beat across the board (6-11%) and 4Ws were a mixed bag. Among 4Ws, while MM (Tractors and PVs) delivered marginal beat , Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors disappointed with EBIDTA miss of 10-18%. 2 things common across OEMs 1) ASPs were under pressure led by discounts and inferior mix 2) The EBIDTA margins were supported by commodity cost benefits and internal cost controls. Since most management commentary were subdued on near term demand and no visible commodity benefits anymore, EPS upgrade despite beats have been very minimal. Going ahead in absence of any fiscal boost from Budget 2020, the sector by and large doesn’t have any near term trigger and hence company specific events/self-help measures would decide stock performance in 1HCY2020. Would expect tractor companies to outperform followed by PV stocks. 2W will continue to face uncertainty of consumer behavior/sentiment in wake of large price hike (10-15%) as they transmission into New Emission norms.
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