自從新冠肺炎席捲全球，關於新冠病毒的各種陰謀論不絕於耳。西方對中國的汙衊和栽贓更是突破人性的底線。
繼“武漢病毒所洩露新冠病毒”、“新冠病毒來源於武漢”等謠言被科學證偽後，“中國刻意隱瞞和造假疫情相關信息”的陰謀論也被科學研究擊破。
4月27日，牛津大學商學院學者Ken Okamura與美國達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行研究員Chritoffer Koch共同撰寫了一篇名為“本福特定律和新冠疫情數據報告” 的論文，揭示了三個有關疫情數據的重要結論：
第一，用本福特定律對數據進行分析驗證後，沒有發現中國數據造假；
第二，可以使用中國的疫情數據校準新增病例數和死亡病例數之間的權衡模型；
第三，中國“後隔離”數據可以指導其他國家制定政策；
As the coronavirus has swept across the globe, different kinds of conspiracies about the virus have come about. After rumors that the “coronavirus leaked from the Wuhan virology institute” and “coronavirus originated in Wuhan” were proved to be false by scientific studies, the groundless accusation that “China concealed the extent of coronavirus outbreak” was smashed by a recent study.
When the official data from China is checked, there seems to be "no evidence of manipulation," says a pre-released research paper by experts from Oxford University, as well as a paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released on Monday.
The paper came to three conclusions:
“We find no evidence of manipulation of Chinese COVID-19 data using Benford’s Law；
Models on the trade-off between growth and deaths can be calibrated with Chinese data；
Future Chinese data post-quarantine should guide policy in other countries.”
Confirmed cases in Chinese provinces, U.S. states and Italian regions /Screenshot from SSRN
據悉，本福特定律可用於檢查各種數據是否有造假。文章作者將中國疫情數據與美國、意大利的數據進行了比較。事實證明，三組數據都符合本福特定律。因此，作者在論文中總結說，“我們拒絕中國數據造假的假設。”
該論文還指出，“對中國數據的懷疑可能已經導致了（西方）應對疫情時的決策失當，也讓公眾難以接受某些政策，並給社會造成了損害。”
文章稱，中國2月份的疫情數據已經顯示出中國疫情防控措施的有效性，然而歐洲因對中國持懷疑態度而未能及時並徹底地實施“封城”等措施。
該論文目前刊於SSRN網站上，正在進行同行評審。
Koch and Okamura collected China's data from Johns Hopkins University's Corona Virus Research Center, which is freely available online, and compared it with the numbers for the U.S. and Italy. It turned out that these three sets of data matched with the expectation of Benford's Law. "Thus we reject the hypothesis that the Chinese data has been manipulated," concluded the paper.
The paper also pointed out that “Skepticism about the Chinese data may result – and may already have resulted – in poor policy choices or result in the public not accepting policy decisions to the detriment of society.” It stated that lack of confidence in the Chinese data may have led to “a slower response in Europe to the emergent pandemic” since “Chinese data from February had already shown the effectiveness of the quarantine measures in slowing the progress of the disease”.
This paper is currently under review by the Social Science Research Network (SSRN).
以下是此前來自西方的一系列無端指控：
4月1日美國彭博社刊文稱，據三名美國官員透露，美國情報機構在給白宮的一份機密文件中表示，“中國掩蓋了新冠病毒的爆發範圍，且沒有如實報告新冠疫情的確診病例數與死亡病例數。”
至於這三名官員是誰，該文章表示，“他們不想曝光身份，因為那份報告是機密文件。”
同日，美國總統特朗普在疫情簡報會上說，“中國的數據看起來有點少，我這麼說都是委婉的。” 暗示中國政府瞞報疫情數據。
4月16日，據路透社報道，美國國務院發言人摩根·奧爾塔格斯在一份聲明中表示，美國國務卿蓬佩奧要求中國最高外交官必須充分透明地共享疫情信息。
4月22日，蓬佩奧在記者會上再次抹黑中國，稱中國“隱瞞疫情”，並指責世衛組織。
Malicious accusations saying “China concealed the extent of coronavirus outbreak” never cease.
On April 1, an article on Bloomberg said that U.S. Intelligence delivered a classified report to the White House, claiming that “China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease”.
On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump doubted the transparency of the Chinese government’s handling of the pandemic by saying “Their numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that”.
On April 16, Reuters reported that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “stressed to China’s top diplomat the need for full transparency and information sharing to fight against the coronavirus outbreak”.
Besides, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron respectively expressed their doubts about the Chinese government’s transparency in dealing with the pandemic. Macron even said that "There are clearly things that have happened that we don't know about".
西方”甩鍋”中國的言論還未停止。
4月28日，蓬佩奧再次抹黑和汙衊中國。他在推文中暗示是中國沒有分享足夠信息才導致美國團隊無法好好開展抗疫工作——赤裸裸的甩鍋。對此，中國外交部發言人華春瑩硬核回應：
“中國共產黨在應對新冠疫情時公開、透明、負責任。一月底有兩名美國專家隨中國-世衛組織聯合考察團隊來到了中國。為什麼不讓美國專家確認一下新冠病毒是何時在美國開始傳播的呢？美國人民需要答案，世界也有權利知道答案。”
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attacked China again on April 28, saying “The CPC needs to be transparent” in a tweet. In this end, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying fought back on Twitter, and raised doubt upon the transparency of the U.S. government by saying “Why not ask US experts to locate when the virus first started in the US?”
新冠病毒是人類共同的敵人，各國應合作共同應對，而不是推卸責任和玩弄政治。
正如世衛組織總幹事譚德塞所說，“所有政黨的焦點應該是挽救民眾的生命，” 而不是把病毒政治化。
The coronavirus is a common enemy of humankind. Unity and joint efforts are required to defeat this invisible rival. It is not the time for blame games or playing politics.
As Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of the WHO said, the focus of all political parties should be saving people’s lives, instead of politicizing the virus.
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