■作者：陳華鋒，復旦大學泛海國際金融學院金融學教授、FMBA項目學術主任
■原載：2020年4月9日《中國日報》
寫在前面：
新冠病毒疫情帶來的“黑天鵝”仍在全球市場上空擴大盤旋的半徑，全球金融市場遭遇歷史性的至暗時刻，經歷了巴菲特眼中活了89年也沒見過的場面。未來的市場將何去何從？復旦大學泛海國際金融學院金融學教授陳華鋒帶來最新洞見，把脈全球金融市場走向。
陳華鋒
復旦大學泛海國際金融學院金融學教授
FMBA項目學術主任
Global financial markets, especially those in Europe and the United States, have gone through turmoil, and COVID-19 was the trigger. There are three reasons for the turmoil, with the first being the novel coronavirus outbreak. The second is the oil price crash, which followed the collapse of negotiations between countries in the Middle East and Russia. Low oil prices tend to lower pressure on inflation rates as well as interest rates. The third reason is that stock markets, especially US stocks, had experienced a bull run for 11 years, and their valuation ratios were at a relatively high level.
全球金融市場，尤其是歐洲和美國的金融市場，已經經歷了大幅動盪，而COVID-19無疑是導火索。造成混亂的原因有三個：其一是新型冠狀病毒的爆發；其二是油價暴跌，這是在中東國家和俄羅斯之間的談判破裂之後發生的，低油價往往會降低通貨膨脹率和利率；其三是股市，尤其是美國股市，在經歷了長達11年的牛市後，其估值比率處於相對較高的水平。
The S&P 500 Index, the stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the US, has more than tripled, from around 750 points in 2009 to about 3,300 early this year. The valuation ratios of US stocks were at their 90th percentile historically. US investor Warren Buffett's company underperformed on the S&P 500 in 2019. He had found it difficult to spot good stocks that were undervalued. After Buffett's company had underperformed on the S&P 500 in 1999, US stocks had experienced a bearish trend.
衡量在美國證券交易所上市的500家大型企業業績的標準普爾500指數（S&P 500 Index），從2009年的約750點漲至2020年年初的約3300點，翻了三倍多。回顧歷史，美國股市的估值比率處於大約第90個百分點。在2019年，美國投資家沃倫•巴菲特的公司表現不如標普500指數，他發現很難找到被低估的好股票。1999年，當巴菲特的公司股票不如標普500後，美國股市經歷了一輪熊市。
There are two scenarios in such a market: optimistic and pessimistic. In an optimistic scenario, the market will be typically bearish, which means it would drop by about one-third. On March 23, the S&P 500 closed at 2,237, a drop of almost one-third from the highest level. In a pessimistic scenario, the drop might be even steeper.
在這樣的市場下通常會發生兩種情形：樂觀情況和消極情況。在樂觀的情況下，市場會走入一個普通的熊市，這意味著它將下跌三分之一左右。3月23日，標準普爾500指數收於2,237點，從最高點下跌近三分之一。在消極的情況下，下降的幅度會更大。
A part of the decline was caused by the fact that many people and governments initially overlooked the threat of COVID-19. However, that situation has largely changed. Some states in the US have now declared a state of emergency. With governments of various countries having paid adequate attention, eventually there will be a way to contain the outbreak. We have already seen relatively successful cases of control in China and Singapore. It seems that wearing masks, quarantining of patients with mild or no symptoms, and relentless testing have played an important role in combating the virus in China. While there is no cure or vaccine at the moment, we have seen reports of successful use of certain drugs and progress on the vaccine front. However, the impact of COVID-19 is more likely to be a short-term one. It is hard to believe it can cause permanent damage to more than 30 percent of the world's economy.
導致市場衰退的部分原因是在疫情發展初期，人們忽視了COVID-19的威脅。但如今這種情況已發生很大變化。美國的部分州現已宣佈進入緊急狀態。由於各國政府給予了足夠的重視，最終會有一種全面遏制疫情的方法。我們已經在中國和新加坡看到了疫情防控較為成功的例子。從中國來看，督促人們戴口罩、隔離輕症或無症狀感染者和堅持不懈的檢測，這些措施在抗擊病毒方面發揮了重要作用。儘管目前尚無新冠肺炎的治癒方法或疫苗，但我們已經通過一些報道獲悉，某些藥物可以幫助對抗病毒，疫苗研發方面也取得了進展。COVID-19的影響更可能是相對短期的，很難想象它能對全球經濟造成超過30%的永久性損傷。
Compared with the foreign stock markets, the Chinese stock market valuation is at a relatively low level, probably due to deleveraging in the past few years. This means that A shares—shares of companies based on the Chinese mainland and traded on two Chinese stock exchanges, Shanghai and Shenzhen—are more resilient than those on other stock markets, and the risk of a sharp decline is relatively small. In a pessimist scenario, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index could fall to around 2,500 points, but the room for decline is relatively small.
與國外股市相比，中國股市估值水平相對較低，這可能是過去數年去槓桿的結果。這意味著A股——在上海和深圳這兩個中國證券交易所交易的中國內地公司的股票——比其他市場的股票更有彈性，大幅下跌的風險相對較小。在悲觀的情況下，上證綜指可能跌至2500點左右，但下跌空間相對較小。
On the bond market, the interest rates in the US are at a low level not only in the short term, but also in the medium and long term, and there is limited room for operating monetary policy.
美債低利率目前已經不僅是短期利率的情況，而且中長期利率也非常低，美國貨幣政策的操作空間有限。
We are in a situation that has not been seen for decades. The market turmoil has reflected that. While things might get worse before they get better, we need to keep in mind that we have emerged from all bear markets in the past, and this time won't be different.
我們正經歷幾十年未見的市場局勢，劇烈震盪反映了這一點。雖然情況在好轉之前可能會變得更糟，但我們需謹記，我們曾經從過去的所有熊市中復甦，這次也不會有什麼不同。
*本文根據陳華鋒教授日前刊載於China Daily的撰文"COVID-19 isn't the only factor in market turmoil"編寫，翻譯：蔣騁。
