■作者：陈华锋，复旦大学泛海国际金融学院金融学教授、FMBA项目学术主任
■原载：2020年4月9日《中国日报》
写在前面：
新冠病毒疫情带来的“黑天鹅”仍在全球市场上空扩大盘旋的半径，全球金融市场遭遇历史性的至暗时刻，经历了巴菲特眼中活了89年也没见过的场面。未来的市场将何去何从？复旦大学泛海国际金融学院金融学教授陈华锋带来最新洞见，把脉全球金融市场走向。
陈华锋
复旦大学泛海国际金融学院金融学教授
FMBA项目学术主任
Global financial markets, especially those in Europe and the United States, have gone through turmoil, and COVID-19 was the trigger. There are three reasons for the turmoil, with the first being the novel coronavirus outbreak. The second is the oil price crash, which followed the collapse of negotiations between countries in the Middle East and Russia. Low oil prices tend to lower pressure on inflation rates as well as interest rates. The third reason is that stock markets, especially US stocks, had experienced a bull run for 11 years, and their valuation ratios were at a relatively high level.
全球金融市场，尤其是欧洲和美国的金融市场，已经经历了大幅动荡，而COVID-19无疑是导火索。造成混乱的原因有三个：其一是新型冠状病毒的爆发；其二是油价暴跌，这是在中东国家和俄罗斯之间的谈判破裂之后发生的，低油价往往会降低通货膨胀率和利率；其三是股市，尤其是美国股市，在经历了长达11年的牛市后，其估值比率处于相对较高的水平。
The S&P 500 Index, the stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the US, has more than tripled, from around 750 points in 2009 to about 3,300 early this year. The valuation ratios of US stocks were at their 90th percentile historically. US investor Warren Buffett's company underperformed on the S&P 500 in 2019. He had found it difficult to spot good stocks that were undervalued. After Buffett's company had underperformed on the S&P 500 in 1999, US stocks had experienced a bearish trend.
衡量在美国证券交易所上市的500家大型企业业绩的标准普尔500指数（S&P 500 Index），从2009年的约750点涨至2020年年初的约3300点，翻了三倍多。回顾历史，美国股市的估值比率处于大约第90个百分点。在2019年，美国投资家沃伦•巴菲特的公司表现不如标普500指数，他发现很难找到被低估的好股票。1999年，当巴菲特的公司股票不如标普500后，美国股市经历了一轮熊市。
There are two scenarios in such a market: optimistic and pessimistic. In an optimistic scenario, the market will be typically bearish, which means it would drop by about one-third. On March 23, the S&P 500 closed at 2,237, a drop of almost one-third from the highest level. In a pessimistic scenario, the drop might be even steeper.
在这样的市场下通常会发生两种情形：乐观情况和消极情况。在乐观的情况下，市场会走入一个普通的熊市，这意味着它将下跌三分之一左右。3月23日，标准普尔500指数收于2,237点，从最高点下跌近三分之一。在消极的情况下，下降的幅度会更大。
A part of the decline was caused by the fact that many people and governments initially overlooked the threat of COVID-19. However, that situation has largely changed. Some states in the US have now declared a state of emergency. With governments of various countries having paid adequate attention, eventually there will be a way to contain the outbreak. We have already seen relatively successful cases of control in China and Singapore. It seems that wearing masks, quarantining of patients with mild or no symptoms, and relentless testing have played an important role in combating the virus in China. While there is no cure or vaccine at the moment, we have seen reports of successful use of certain drugs and progress on the vaccine front. However, the impact of COVID-19 is more likely to be a short-term one. It is hard to believe it can cause permanent damage to more than 30 percent of the world's economy.
导致市场衰退的部分原因是在疫情发展初期，人们忽视了COVID-19的威胁。但如今这种情况已发生很大变化。美国的部分州现已宣布进入紧急状态。由于各国政府给予了足够的重视，最终会有一种全面遏制疫情的方法。我们已经在中国和新加坡看到了疫情防控较为成功的例子。从中国来看，督促人们戴口罩、隔离轻症或无症状感染者和坚持不懈的检测，这些措施在抗击病毒方面发挥了重要作用。尽管目前尚无新冠肺炎的治愈方法或疫苗，但我们已经通过一些报道获悉，某些药物可以帮助对抗病毒，疫苗研发方面也取得了进展。COVID-19的影响更可能是相对短期的，很难想象它能对全球经济造成超过30%的永久性损伤。
Compared with the foreign stock markets, the Chinese stock market valuation is at a relatively low level, probably due to deleveraging in the past few years. This means that A shares—shares of companies based on the Chinese mainland and traded on two Chinese stock exchanges, Shanghai and Shenzhen—are more resilient than those on other stock markets, and the risk of a sharp decline is relatively small. In a pessimist scenario, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index could fall to around 2,500 points, but the room for decline is relatively small.
与国外股市相比，中国股市估值水平相对较低，这可能是过去数年去杠杆的结果。这意味着A股——在上海和深圳这两个中国证券交易所交易的中国内地公司的股票——比其他市场的股票更有弹性，大幅下跌的风险相对较小。在悲观的情况下，上证综指可能跌至2500点左右，但下跌空间相对较小。
On the bond market, the interest rates in the US are at a low level not only in the short term, but also in the medium and long term, and there is limited room for operating monetary policy.
美债低利率目前已经不仅是短期利率的情况，而且中长期利率也非常低，美国货币政策的操作空间有限。
We are in a situation that has not been seen for decades. The market turmoil has reflected that. While things might get worse before they get better, we need to keep in mind that we have emerged from all bear markets in the past, and this time won't be different.
我们正经历几十年未见的市场局势，剧烈震荡反映了这一点。虽然情况在好转之前可能会变得更糟，但我们需谨记，我们曾经从过去的所有熊市中复苏，这次也不会有什么不同。
*本文根据陈华锋教授日前刊载于China Daily的撰文"COVID-19 isn't the only factor in market turmoil"编写，翻译：蒋骋。
關鍵字: markets relatively market
