在见证过美股数次熔断后，这一次，我们又见证了史无前例的“负油价”。
当地时间20日，纽约商品交易所5月交货的轻质原油期货价格暴跌超300%，收于每桶-37.63美元。这是自石油期货从1983年在纽约商品交易所开始交易后首次跌入负数交易。
The May futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil prices, crashed 300 percent from 17.85 U.S. dollars a barrel to minus 37.63 U.S. dollars a barrel on Monday, the worst level since 1983.
那么，如何看待油价一夜暴“负”？
大宗商品研究公司ICIS安迅思中国分析主管李莉对CGTN记者表示，美国“负油价”的出现相当于是极端情况的预演，不反映真实价格。“昨天的极端价格与期货投机操作有很大关联，不仅仅是全球供求不平衡所致，因此不完全代表实际的油价情况。”
李莉解释道：“这种极端情况主要归因于期货到期合约的逼仓，程序化算法交易的放大也起到了推波助澜的作用。”她认为，新冠肺炎疫情期间的“封锁”措施导致原油需求腰斩，交割地库容接近上限，这些因素都加大了价格非理性的程度。
The negative U.S. oil futures were a preview of extreme situations and didn't reflect the real price, a global commodity expert said as the U.S. oil futures plunged below zero U.S. dollars a barrel on Monday for the first time in history.
"The extreme prices yesterday had great relations to futures speculation, not just because of global supply-demand imbalance, so they didn't fully represent the actual oil price situation," Li Li, China head of analytics with ICIS, a global commodity intelligence provider told CGTN.
"Such an extreme case is attributed to the tight positions of the expiring contract and the amplification of programmatic trading," Li explained, adding that a collapse in oil demand from pandemic-driven lockdowns and storage facilities nearing their capacities also played a role.
由于5月期货合约于21日到期，富乐敦首席策略分析师Jimmy Zhu认为，买家因此急于做反向对冲交易，以尽可能止损。他还认为，技术性因素是油价下跌的主要原因。
值得一提的是，在21日开盘后，油价又开始反弹。但由于对供需失衡的担忧仍然存在，涨幅因而受到限制。
此外，李莉表示：“6月合约交易价还是在每桶20美元以上，这个才是相对真实的价格。”
The May contract were due to expire on Tuesday. "So buyers were eager to do reverse hedging transactions in order to stop losses as much as possible," Jimmy Zhu, the chief strategist at Singapore-based Fullerton Research told CGTN. Zhu also believed that technical things were the main reasons behind the negative oil futures.
Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday. The WTI crude for May delivery went up 38.73 U.S. dollars at 1.10 U.S. dollars a barrel by 0117 GMT. But gains were capped amid unresolved concerns over imbalance between supply and demand.
The U.S. oil futures for June jumped 8.4 percent to 22.15 U.S. dollars a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude for June delivery was up 1.9 percent at 26.06 U.S. dollars per barrel.
"The prices for June futures are still above 20 U.S. dollars a barrel, and this is the relatively real price," Li told CGTN.
道琼斯指数周一收盘下跌592.10点，跌幅2.44%，报23650.44点 。标普500指数周一收盘下跌51.40点，跌幅1.79%，报2823.16点。纳斯达克指数周一收盘下跌89.40点，跌幅1.03%，报8560.73点 。今年截至目前，能源股已经下跌了45%。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 2.44 percent to end at 23,650.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.79 percent to 2,823.16. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.03 percent to 8,560.73.
This year, to date, the energy index has lost 45 percent, by far the worst performer among 11 sectors.
金融危机即将来临？
Financial crisis on the horizon?
在低油价的冲击下，亚洲最大的燃油贸易商之一新加坡兴隆集团债务危机持续发酵。该集团被曝出隐瞒8亿美元亏损，并于20日申请了破产保护。
油企破产是否会触发银行危机？李莉认为应该不会，她告诉CGTN记者：“截至目前，还没有出现大面积类似兴隆或者与之关联的案例。”
Singapore-based Hin Leong Trading (Pte) Ltd, one of the largest fuel traders in Asia and an operator of a major tanker fleet, has admitted to 800 million U.S. dollars in undisclosed losses and filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday.
"I don't think there would be a banking crisis, as there have been no cases similar or related to Hin Leong till now," Li told CGTN, when asked whether fuel traders' bankruptcy will lead to a banking crisis or even a financial crisis.
对此，Jimmy Zhu也表达了类似的观点：“不太会像2008年那样油企接连破产。”他进一步解释道，虽然油企的债务相对较高，但与银行等金融机构相比，违约的连锁反应将会降低。
他表示，雷曼兄弟破产引发2008年金融危机，是因为其本身作为一家全球性金融服务公司，是全球金融体系的一部分，因此很容易在全球范围内引发一系列的债务违约。
"Oil companies are unlikely to go bankrupt one after another like 2008," Zhu agreed with Li. "Although the debt of oil players is relatively high, the chain reaction of default will be lower compared with banks and other financial institutions," he further explained.
The reason that Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy triggered the 2008 financial crisis is that Lehman itself, as a global financial services firm, was part of the global financial system, so it easily activated a series of debt defaults worldwide, Zhu said.
然而，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英则持不同的观点。她认为，金融危机已经发生，疫情是压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。“流动性危机早前已出现，此次负油价带来了债务危机。”她说。
However, Liu Ying, Research Fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China disagrees, saying that the financial crisis is already taking place as the structural problems among U.S. stocks have not been resolved since 2008, and the epidemic is the last straw to break the camel's back.
"The liquidity crisis has emerged earlier, and the negative oil price brought about a debt crisis," Liu added.
另外，至于6月合约是不是也会在临近到期时重演5月合约的悲剧，专家们也分享了各自的看法。
李莉表示，未来几个月，全球原油市场会不断缓解，所以6月合约到期的时候，情况会有所好转。Jimmy Zhu认为，6月合约取决于下个月欧美复工的情况。他指出：“由于需求下降，我们看到了存储面临的真正压力。至少在下个月之前，价格将继续承受压力 。”
"In the coming months, the global crude oil market will continue to ease, so the situation will improve when the June contract expires," Li told CGTN.
Where the June contract will go depends on the work resumption in Europe and America next month, Zhu said.
"As demand fell, we saw real pressure on oil storage. At least until next month, the oil price will continue to bear the stress," Zhu cited.
需求雪崩
A collapse in oil demand
油价首次破零，这是一个令人不安的迹象，表明今年上半年全球供需出现了前所未有的失衡。新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延之际，几乎一切旅行暂停，经济活动受到抑制，原油供应一直远远超过需求。
受疫情影响，许多工厂关闭，飞机停飞，汽车也基本停用。“遏制病毒传播的努力使工业需求降至历史最低水平。”Jimmy Zhu告诉CGTN记者，需求疲软导致交易流动性减弱，结果造成WTI价格大跌，并给对冲方造成巨额损失。
上周石油输出国组织欧佩克与多个非欧佩克产油国达成一项减产协议，首阶段将从今年5月开始每日减产原油约1000万桶。但李莉和Jimmy Zhu都认为，虽然减产规模世上罕见，但远不足以平衡市场。
国际能源署预测，4月和5月全球石油需求将分别减少2900万桶和2600万桶。李莉说：“减产即使能够落实，也仅相当于补了不到一半的漏洞。”
Monday's plunge is a troubling sign of an unprecedented global supply-demand imbalance in the first half of the year, as supply of crude oil has been far above demand since the coronavirus pandemic halted traveling and curbed economic activities.
"Efforts to curb the virus have made the industrial demand for oil drop to the lowest level in history," Zhu told CGTN. During the coronavirus outbreak, many factories are closed, with vehicles and airplanes standing still.
"The weak demand led to a weaker trading liquidity, finally resulting in a sharp decline in WTI prices and huge losses to hedgers," Zhu said.
A deal announced last week between OPEC and its peers would have slashed output by about 10 million barrels a day from May. However, both Li and Zhu believed that the record output cuts were still far from enough to balance the market.
The IEA forecasted that the loss of global oil demand in April and May will be 29 million barrels and 26 million barrels per day respectively. "Even if the reduction is implemented, it will only offset less than half of the loss in demand," Li said.
无处安放
A storage problem
“与此同时，依赖于管道运输的原油，由于无处安放，目前正在折价交易 。”Jimmy Zhu说，全球各地的储油量正在迅速增加，而在原油难以运输的地区，生产商可能很快就会被迫向消费者支付费用，这实际上将油价压低至零以下。
纽约商品交易所交易的“西得克萨斯中间基原油”需在位于俄克拉荷马州的库欣进行交割。据彭博社报道，库欣的石油库存自2月底以来已上涨48%，达到近5500万桶。
摩根士丹利表示，随着全球各地的石油储备设施即将被填满，海上储油量也在大幅增加，海上储罐将在60天内存满。
彭博社称，特朗普政府因担心油企破产可能产生连锁反应，提议向石油开采商支付费用，让他们把石油留在地下，直到油价回升再继续开采，从而保护生产商免受直接损失。
"Also, crude oil, which depends on pipeline transportation, is trading at a discount because it is nowhere to be placed and will often block the pipeline," Zhu told CGTN.
Crude stockpiles at Cushing in Oklahoma, which is the U.S. key storage hub and delivery point of the WTI contract, have jumped 48 percent to almost 55 million barrels since the end of February, according to Bloomberg.
U.S. crude inventories were expected to rise by about 16.1 million barrels in the week to April 17 after posting the biggest one-week build in history, according to Reuters. Analysts expected gasoline stocks to rise by 3.7 million barrels last week.
As oil storage facilities around the world are to be filled up, offshore oil storage has also increased significantly, where storage tanks will be full within 60 days, according to Morgan Stanley.
Concerned about the possible ripple effect from oil bankruptcies, the Trump Administration is proposing to pay oil drillers to keep their oil in the ground until prices recovered, so as to protect producers from immediate losses, according to Bloomberg.
"Oil reserves worldwide have been increased rapidly, and in areas where crude oil is difficult to transport due to traffic control, oil producers may soon be forced to pay for consumers, which actually undercut oil prices below zero," Zhu told CGTN.
敲响警钟
Alarm bells ring over collapse of petrodollar
在刘英看来，美国原油价格的历史性暴跌使得石油和美元这两大支柱严重受损值得警惕。
美国刚刚成长为石油出口全球第一大国。油价暴跌实则给WTI国际油价、石油美元都带来了巨大的信誉损失。
她表示，中国作为石油消费大国和进口大国，需要发展好人民币石油期货市场，推进人民币国际化，完善全球治理。
Liu cautioned that the two pillars of oil and the U.S. dollar were severely damaged by the historical crash of U.S. crude oil prices.
She elaborated that the U.S. has just become the world's largest oil exporter before the WTI price turned negative, and the collapse brought huge reputation damage to the WTI international oil prices and petrodollar.
"As a major oil consumer and importer, the route China must take is to develop a Renminbi denominated oil futures market," said Liu.
China has launched its oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in March 2018, aiming at establishing an Asian oil price benchmark. Denominated in yuan, the exchange's total trade volume exceeded 17 trillion yuan (2.4 trillion U.S. dollars) in one year, ranking among the world's top three crude oil futures contracts.
She continued that in response to the novel coronavirus shock, the U.S. Fed has launched unlimited quantitative easing and unlimited currency swaps. Liu warned that even though the helicopter greenback is still favorable during the crisis, credibility of the dollar as a global currency has been severely damaged.
"As a major developing country, China should participate in international economic and financial governance while developing its own economy. It is necessary to promote yuan internationalization and improve global economic and financial governance," said Liu.
