本文作者是OMFIF经济学家本·鲁滨逊，OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库，原文于2017年9月4日发表在OMFIF Commentary。
作者提出经过多年的低增长之后，世界贸易额将在2017年第三季度回升，然而政策的不确定性和结构性变化会对此产生威胁。世界上主要的经济体需要重新关注政策, 以促进更高的贸易增长，否则世界将丧失几十年的贸易增长机会。
中文译文如下：
未来数十年的贸易机会面临风险
政策不确定性和结构性变化威胁前景
本·鲁滨逊
翻译：靳佳为
审校：陆可凡
根据世界贸易组织 (WTO) 的最新数据, 经过多年的低增长, 世界贸易额正在回升, 预计在2017年第三季度将会继续增加。空运和集装箱港口的数量已分别见同比增长约10% 和 7%，反映了总需求量的上升势头。电子元器件和农业原材料贸易经过一段时间低于总体增长趋势后开始扩张, 这表明在下游工业中利用这些投入创造更复杂最终产品的活动在增强。
世贸组织预测的增长令人鼓舞, 但世界经济中的政策不确定性和结构变化阻碍了贸易前景。面临贸易放缓问题的国家需要通过将政策重点改为为发展有竞争力的服务行业和吸引外国直接投资创造有利的国内环境，来适应这个问题。这包括加强知识产权保护以及改革教育和技能培训。国际服务贸易框架也需要前所未有的现代化, 以促进跨境流动。
去年是15年来的第一次--也是自1982年以来的第二次—世界贸易增长（1.3%）低于世界 GDP增长（2.3%）。trade-to-GDP指数相比于在二十世纪九十年代和二十一世纪第一个十年中期之间平均超过2:1的水平明显下降到0.6：1。
自2008金融危机以来, 世界贸易的增长速度与世界产量相同。贸易的低增长影响到总体需求、经济发展、出口价格、外汇储备、政府预算和就业等问题。
1:1 的比率部分是周期性因素的结果。这些因素包括危机后复苏缓慢和投资支出大幅下降, 这是进口需求中最贸易密集型的组成部分。
另一个重要原因是中国造成的结构性变化。从钢铁到半导体, 中国的生产能力迅速提高。中国将更多的价值链引入国内经济, 并将生产进一步转移到内陆省份, 而不是像以前一样简单地组装其他地方制造的零部件。
因此, 中国目前出口的货物中有较高比例的国内增值, 这影响了中国从其他国家进口再作为生产过程的一部分出口的中间产品的数量。20世纪90年代发展起来的供应链带动了中间产品贸易的扩大，这是中国早期生产总值和贸易扩张的一个关键原因。
政治家们正在努力制定有效的措施来应对这些挑战。目前, 许多主要经济体对贸易保护和经济民族主义的强调并未能解决这些转变的最重要因素。
自二十世纪七十年代以来, 服务行业占全球 GDP比重从53%增长到超过70%, 而且仍在上升。在发达经济体中, 服务行业的贡献占国内生产总值的85%。与此同时, 制造业在全球 GDP 中所占的比重已从27% 下降到 16%, 而且仍在下降。
尽管发生了这些变化, 但在过去几十年中, 全球贸易中服务贸易的数量一直稳定在20% 至25% 之间。尽管在全球GDP中所占份额有所下降，制造业和商品贸易仍然占世界贸易总额的70% 左右。其结果是, GDP 增长与贸易扩张之间的脱节越来越大。
与商品贸易不同, 服务业尚未在多边层面上看到成功的大型自由贸易协定, 部分原因是服务所依赖的深层次的边境问题。此外, 有些服务本质上是不可流通的, 或者需要面对面的互动。还有些服务是 "嵌入" 在制成品出口, 并没有被传统的贸易统计数据计入。
至关重要的是, 许多服务通过外国直接投资而直接流入其他国家, 从而在这些情况下充当贸易的替代品。根据联合国的统计数据, 全球外国直接投资的60% 以上来自服务业, 境外机构的服务贸易价值与跨境服务贸易的价值的比值超过了3：1。
所有这些因素都表明, 即使全球增长开始加速, 全球 trade-to-GDP 比率也不可能达到以前的高点。主要经济体需要重新关注政策, 以促进更高的贸易增长。如果他们不这样做, 世界将丧失几十年的贸易增长机会。
英文原文如下：
Decades of Trade Opportunities at Risk
Policy uncertainty and structural changes threaten prospects
Ben RobinsonAfter years of low growth, world trade volumes are recovering and expected to increase throughout the third quarter of 2017, according to latest data from the World Trade Organisation. Air freight and container port volumes, good measures of overall demand, have seen year-on-year growth of around 10% and 7%, respectively. Trade in electronic components and agricultural raw materials is expanding after a period of below-trend growth, indicating strengthening activity in downstream industries that use these inputs to create more complex final products.
The increase in the WTO forecast is encouraging, but policy uncertainty and structural changes in the world economy hamper trade prospects. Countries facing problems from the trade slowdown need to adapt by changing their policy focus towards creating supportive domestic environments for developing competitive service industries and attracting foreign direct investment. This includes strengthening intellectual property protection and reforming education and skills training. The international framework for services trade, too, requires unprecedented modernisation to facilitate cross-border flows.
Last year was the first time in 15 years – and only the second time since 1982 – that trade grew below world GDP, at 1.3% against global output of 2.3%. That trade-to-GDP ratio of 0.6:1 is a marked reduction from the more than 2:1 averaged between the 1990s and mid-2000s.
Since the 2008 financial crisis world trade has grown at the same pace as world output. Low trade growth impacts overall demand, economic development, export prices, foreign reserves, government budgets and employment, among other issues.
The 1:1 ratio is partly the result of cyclical factors. These include the slow post-crisis recovery and a large fall in investment spending, which is the most trade-intensive component of import demand.
Another significant cause is structural change resulting from China. It has rapidly increased its productive capacity in everything from steel to semiconductors. Rather than simply assemble components made elsewhere, as in the past, China is drawing more of the value chain into its domestic economy and shifting production further into its interior provinces.
As a result, China is exporting goods with a higher portion of domestic value-added, which is impacting the amount of intermediate goods it imports from elsewhere and then re-exports as part of the production process. The expansion of trade in such intermediates as supply chains developed during the 1990s was a key cause of the earlier trade-GDP expansion.
Politicians are struggling to devise effective measures to deal with these challenges. The current focus on trade protection and economic nationalism in many leading economies fails to address the most important causes for these shifts.
Since the 1970s services have grown to over 70% of global GDP from 53%, and are still rising. In developed economies services contribute up to 85% of GDP. The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, has fallen as a share of global GDP to 16% from around 27%, and is still declining.
Despite these shifts, the amount of services in global trade has remained stable over the last few decades, at between 20%-25%. Manufacturing and goods trade still accounts for around 70% of total trade, despite contributing a declining share of global GDP. The result is a growing disconnect between GDP growth and trade expansion.
Unlike goods trade, services have yet to see a successful large liberalisation agreement at the multilateral level, in part because of the deep behind-the-border issues that services depend on. Moreover, some services are inherently non-tradable or require face-to-face interactions. Others are 'embedded' in manufactured exports and are not captured by traditional trade statistics.
Crucially, many services are delivered directly into other countries by establishing a presence through foreign direct investment, which acts as a substitute for trade in these cases. Over 60% of the global stock of FDI is in services, according to statistics from the United Nations, with the value of foreign affiliate trade in services outweighing the value of cross-border service trade by more than 3:1.
All these factors suggest the global trade-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to reach previous highs, even if global growth starts to accelerate. Leading economies need to refocus on polices to facilitate higher trade growth. If they do not, the world faces decades of lost opportunities.
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