本土化還是國際化？——2018 全球銀行國際化報告

過去一年全球經濟持續復甦，總需求回升同時猶存經濟下行風險。機遇與挑戰並存的背景下，

過去一年，全球經濟持續復甦，總需求有所回升，但經濟下行風險猶存。與此同時，貨幣政策轉向、債務積壓狀況惡化、逆全球化風潮等則成為經濟增長隱患。在機遇與挑戰並存的環境下，各國銀行如何深耕國際化發展、全球銀行業國際化水平如何變動？“全球銀行國際化”系列報告持續關注銀行境外資產、營收、分支機構表現，以“銀行國際化指數（BII， Bank Internationalization Index）”展現全球主要銀行的國際化進程。《2018 全球銀行國際化報告》作為系列報告的第四期成果，放眼世界，選取來自 38 個主要經濟體的 106 家銀行深入分析。 這些銀行 2017 年資產總額約為 70 萬億美元， 相當於當年全球 GDP 的 86%。 它們從發達國家至發展中國家，從歐美至亞非，囊括了各主要經濟體的主要銀行，代表性地展現了全球銀行業的國際化現狀。

1、最國際化銀行

2017年，我們選擇境外數據較為全面的64家銀行（資產總額約53萬億美元，相當於全球GDP的65%）進行BII排名，展現各個銀行的國際化水平。

最國際化的銀行基本來源於發達國家。2017年，全球銀行BII前十名中9家來自發達國家。BII以銀行境外經營數據佔比衡量銀行國際化水平，是為“最國際化銀行”，其排名表現反映出，當前國際舞臺上的跨國銀行，仍以國際化歷史更為久遠的發達國家銀行為主。

發達國家銀行國際化水平總體較高。排名前十的發達國家銀行BII數值基本超過50分，境外發展與境內同等重要甚至超越境內發展。歐洲地區銀行因國內市場規模較小、區域地緣關係密切，國際化水平普遍較高，在發達國家銀行前十名中佔據9席。

發展中國家銀行國際化水平參差不齊。一方面，發展中國家前十名，僅阿拉伯銀行BII數值達50分以上，僅有5家銀行BII數值超過20分，整體水平較低，且各銀行間差距較大。另一方面，前十名中，約旦、中國、印度各有兩家銀行，地緣關係、宗教文化、國內經濟發展均對銀行國際化有較大影響。

2、最大境外銀行

報告以銀行境外資產代表各行境外銀行規模，得“最大境外銀行”排名。

全球銀行境外資產規模龐大。參與2017年BII評分的64家銀行，其境外資產總規模約15.1萬億美元，超2017年中國GDP總量（約12.2萬億美元，該數據來源於世界銀行數據庫），其中前十名銀行境外總資產達9.1萬億美元，佔所有銀行境外資產總量的一半以上。

發達國家銀行境外資產規模遠超發展中國家。境外資產規模前十名中9家來自發達國家，且29家發達國家銀行境外資產總規模約為12.7萬億美元，佔全球境外銀行規模的84%，是35家發展中國家銀行境外資產總規模（2.4萬億美元）的五倍以上。發達國家銀行中，歐美地區銀行境外資產規模較大，日本代表銀行表現也較為突出。

中國成為銀行境外資產規模最大的發展中國家。截至2017年底，中國主要銀行境外資產規模逾2萬億美元，超意大利當年的GDP總量。中國銀行作為唯一進入全球銀行境外資產排名前十的發展中國家銀行，位列第6名，中國成為唯一在“最大境外銀行”前十名中獲得一席之地的發展中國家，且在發展中國家銀行前十名中佔據7席。

3、最賺錢境外銀行

本期報告以銀行境外營收規模代表各行境外經營成果，得“最賺錢境外銀行”排名。

全球銀行境外經營成果顯著。64家銀行境外營收總規模約4900億美元，是所有銀行營業收入總額的30.8%，其中前十名銀行境外總營收達3000億美元，超過其餘54家銀行境外營收總額。

發展中國家銀行境外發展以金磚國家銀行為最高水平。35家發展中國家銀行中，15家金磚國家銀行境外營收總規模約530億美元，佔據35家發展中國家銀行境外營收總規模的近88%，引領發展中國家銀行國際發展。金磚國家作為新興經濟體的突出代表，國際影響力日盛，金融機構的國際活躍度也在愈益增強。

4、國際化的不同選擇

我們利用106家銀行近十年的BII數值對全球銀行業的國際化發展情況進行描述，其中，發達國家銀行42家，來自15個國家，發展中國家銀行64家，來自23個國家。

全球銀行業國際化水平近十年波動較小，自2012年後國際化水平總體呈上升態勢。一方面，近年來經濟增速回升，主要經濟體穩步發展、全球貿易和投資回暖、金融市場預期向好、內外部環境改善，成為銀行積極進行境外擴張的動力和前提；另一方面，儘管保護主義對發展的威脅不減，但區域間的密切交往仍在進行，無論是環太平洋區的經貿往來，還是歐洲聯盟以及“一帶一路”沿線國家間的頻繁合作，均為各國企業及金融機構的境外發展提供了重要機遇。

約三成系統重要性銀行國際化水平下降，眾多原因促使部分銀行轉變國際化擴張戰略。一是經濟環境使然，逆全球化和貿易保護主義抬頭，地緣政治衝突多點爆發，風險因素和不確定性的加速積累使銀行更具謹慎意識。二是金融監管趨嚴，自2015年起，金融穩定理事會通過《總損失吸收能力原則及條款》，提高系統重要性銀行的合規難度，以有效維護增長。三是發展戰略出現變化，更多銀行關注重點開始由“量”轉“質”，相較規模擴張更注重資產配置的優化和佈局結構的改善。

總而言之，過去一年，全球經濟形勢依然複雜，全球銀行業的國際化發展方興未艾，有銀行積極邁出國際步伐，亦有銀行謹慎調整全球戰略，形成了層次多樣的國際化格局。未來，在國際經濟與政治尚不明朗的環境下，銀行應審慎制定國際化戰略，做到“走出去”與跨境風險防範並舉，並善於利用各類區域合作機遇提升國際化水平。

The English Version:

2018 Bank Internationalization Report

In the past year, the global economy has continued to recover and total demand has rebounded, but economic downside risks remain. In the meanwhile, the shift in monetary policy, the deterioration of the debt backlog, and the anti-globalization trend have become hidden dangers of economic growth. In an environment where opportunities and challenges coexist, how do banks in various countries devote themselves to international development and how the level of internationalization of global banks change? “The Internationalization of Global Banks” series of reports continue to focus on the bank's overseas assets, revenue, and branch performance, demonstrating the internationalization of major banks around the world by the Bank Internationalization Index (BII). As the fourth phase of the series of reports, 2018 Bank Internationalization Report selects 106 banks from 38 major economies for in-depth analysis. The total assets of these banks in 2017 were about 70 trillion US dollars, accounting for 86% of the global GDP of the year. From developed countries to developing countries, from Europe, America, to Asia and Africa, they include major banks in major economies, and represent the status quo of the global-banking-industry internationalization.

1、Most International Banks

In 2017, we selected 64 banks with a relatively comprehensive overseas data (total assets of approximately $53 trillion, about 65% of global GDP) to conduct BII rankings, which shows the internationalization level of each bank.

Note: Citigroup's data of 2017 is missing, but its previous years' data is relatively complete. In this table, a reasonable prediction of its BII value is made.

§ The most international banks are mostly from developed countries. In 2017, 9 of the top 10 global bank BIIs were from developed countries. BII measures the internationalization level of banks based on the proportion of overseas business data of banks, which is the “most internationalized bank”, and the ranking performance reflects that the current multinational banks on the international stage are still dominated by developed countries with more internationalized history.

§ The level of internationalization of banks in developed countries is generally high. The BII value of the top ten developed countries' banks is basically more than 50 points. The overseas development is as important as the domestic territory and even surpasses the domestic development. Due to the small size of the domestic market and the close geographical relationship, the European regional banks generally have a high level of internationalization, occupying nine seats in the top ten banks in developed countries.

§ The level of internationalization of banks in developing countries is uneven. On the one hand, among the top ten in developing countries, only the Arab Bank BII reaches the value of 50 points, and only five banks BII value exceeds 20 points, which show that the overall level is low and the gap between banks is large. On the other hand, among the top ten, Jordan, China, and India each have two banks. Geopolitical relations, religious culture, and domestic economic development all have a great impact on the internationalization of banks.

2、Largest Overseas Banks

We use the overseas assets of banks to represent the scale of overseas banks, and we have the “largest overseas banks” ranking.

Table 2 Largest Overseas Banks in 2017（Top 10）

Note: All bank overseas asset data is converted into US dollars at the exchange rate of the bank's balance sheet date, and then the offshore asset scale is ranked. Citigroup's data in 2017 is missing, but its data in previous years is relatively complete. In this table, a reasonable forecast for the scale of its overseas assets is made.

§ The scale of overseas bank assets is huge. The total size of the 64 banks overseas assets is about $15.1 trillion, exceeding the total GDP of China in 2017 (about $12.2 trillion). The top ten banks’ total overseas assets reached $9.1 trillion, accounting for more than half of the total overseas assets of all banks.

§ The scale of overseas assets of developed countries' banks far exceeds that of developing countries. Among the top ten overseas assets, nine of them are from developed countries, and the total assets of 29 developed countries’ banks are about $12.7 trillion, which accounts for 84% of the world’s overseas banks, and is more than five times the scale of the total assets of 35 developing countries’ banks ($2.4 trillion). Among the banks in developed countries, the scale of overseas assets of banks in Europe and the United States is relatively large, and the performance of Japanese banks is prominent as well.

§ China has become the developing country with the largest overseas assets of banks. As of the end of 2017, the scale of overseas assets of major banks in China exceeded US$2 trillion, exceeding the total GDP of Italy in that year. Bank of China, ranked as the only developing country bank to enter the top 10 of the global overseas banks, ranking sixth, and China became the only developing country to gain a place in the top ten of the “largest overseas banks” and it takes 7 seats out of the top 10 banks from developing countries.

3、Most Profitable Overseas Banks

We use the bank's overseas revenue scale to represent the operating results of overseas banks, and we have the highest-revenue-bank ranking.

Table 3 Most Profitable Overseas Banks in 2017（Top 10）

Note: All bank external revenue data is converted into US dollars at the exchange rate of the bank's balance sheet date, and then the overseas revenue scale is ranked.

§ The global bank's overseas operations have achieved remarkable results. The total overseas revenue of 64 banks is about $490 billion, which is approximately equal to 30.8% of the total operating income of all banks. The top 10 banks have total overseas revenues of $300 billion, which exceeds the total overseas revenue of the remaining 54 banks.

§ The overseas operations of banks in developed countries are better than those in developing countries. Among the top 10 overseas revenues, 8 are from developed countries, and the total overseas revenues of 29 banks from developed countries are close to $430 billion, accounting for 87.8% of the total overseas revenues. It is more than seven times the size of the overseas bank revenues of 35 developing countries ($60 billion). Moreover, the overseas revenues of developed countries accounts for 3.4% of its overseas assets, which is higher than the overseas assets income rate of developing countries (2.5%), and the overseas business capacity is higher.

§ The BRICS Banks represent the highest level of the overseas development of banks. Among the 35 banks from developing countries, 15 are from BRICS. And their overseas revenue is close to $53 billion, accounting for 88% of the total overseas bank revenue of 35 banks, leading the international development of banks in developing countries. As a prominent representative of emerging economies, the BRICS is increasingly influential around the world, and the international activity of financial institutions is increasing as well.

4、Different Choices of Internationalization

We use the BII values of 106 banks for nearly a decade to describe the international development of the global banking industry. Among them, 42 banks are from 15 developed countries, and 64 developing country banks, from 23 countries.

Note: This chart is based on 106 banks, and some banks BII are default values in individual years.

Figure 1 Global Bank BII Mean Fluctuation from 2007 to 2017

§ The internationalization level of the global banking industry has been less volatile in the past decade, and since 2012, the internationalization level has generally increased. On the one hand, the economic growth rate has rebounded in recent years, and the steady development of major economies, the recovery of global trade and investment, the expected improvement of financial markets, and the improvement of internal and external environment have become the driving force and premise for banks to expand overseas actively. On the other hand, although protectionism’s threat to development is not diminished, close exchanges between regions are still going on, such as economic and trade exchanges in the Pacific Rim and frequent cooperation between the European Union and countries along the Belt and Road. They all provide important opportunities for the overseas development of enterprises and financial institutions in various countries.

§ About 30% of systemically important banks have declined in internationalization, and many reasons have prompted some banks to transform their international expansion strategies. First, banks are more cautious because of the risen counter-globalization and trade protectionism, the exploded geopolitical conflicts, and the accelerated accumulation of risk factors and uncertainties. Second, financial supervision has become stricter. Since 2015, the Financial Stability Board has adopted the Principles and Clauses for Total Loss Absorptive Capacity to improve the compliance difficulty of systemically important banks to maintain growth effectively. Third, the development strategy has changed. More banks have begun to focus on “quality” from “quantity”. Compared with scale expansion, they have paid more attention to the optimization of asset allocation and the improvement of layout structure.

In conclusion, in 2017, the global economic situation is still complicated, the internationalization of the global banks is on the rise, some banks are actively taking international steps, and some banks have carefully adjusted their global strategies and formed a multi-level internationalization pattern. In the future, in an environment where the status of internationalization is still unclear, banks should carefully formulate an internationalization strategy to achieve not only “going out” but also cross-border risk prevention, and be good at using various regional cooperation opportunities to enhance the level of internationalization as well.

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