When it comes to the biggest monetary experiment in modern history, namely Japan's QE which has seen the BOJ buy enough Japanese bonds to match the GDP of Japan, there is nothing more important than the BOJ having accurate metrics to determine if its "inflation targeting" is working, i.e., if wages and broader inflation are rising. Alas, the recent news that Japan's labor ministry published erroneous statistics for years, has raised doubt about not only the accuracy of economic analysis released by the Bank of Japan, but prompted investors to doubt absolutely every economic report published by Tokyo.
当谈到现代历史上最大的货币实验，即日本的量化宽松政策，量化宽松政策使日本央行购买了足够多的日本国债，以匹配日本的GDP。没有什么比日本央行拥有精确的指标来确定其"通胀目标"是否有效更重要的了，即工资和更广泛的通胀是否在上升。 遗憾的是，最近日本劳动省多年来发布的错误统计数据，不仅让人们对日本央行发布的经济分析的准确性产生了怀疑，而且让投资者对东京发布的每一份经济报告都产生了绝对的怀疑。
For those who are unfamiliar with the latest economic fake news scandal, on Wednesday Japan's labor ministry revised its monthly labor survey for the period between 2012 and 2018 admitting it had overstated nominal year-on-year wage increases by as much as 0.7 percentage point between January and November of last year, to take just one example.
对于那些不熟悉最新经济假新闻丑闻的人来说，举个例子，周三，日本劳动省修改了2012年至2018年期间的月度劳动力调查，承认去年1月至11月期间的名义工资同比涨幅夸大多达0.7个百分点。
Unfortunately, there are many other examples, and according to an Internal Affairs Ministry report released late Thursday, nearly half of Japan’s key economic government statistics need to be reviewed with 22 discrete statistics, or roughly 40% of the 56 key government economic releases, turning out to be "fake news" and in need to be corrected.
不幸的是，还有许多其他的例子。根据日本内务省周四晚间发布的一份报告，日本政府关键的经济统计数据中，将近一半需要用22个独立的统计数据进行审核，或者说，在政府发布的56个关键经济数据中，约有40% 的数据是"假新闻"，需要纠正。
This is a major problem for Kuroda and the Bank of Japan which uses statistics from the labor ministry to compile two key pieces of economic data, in making its ongoing decisions whether to continue, taper or expand QE.
对于黑田东彦和日本央行来说，这是一个大问题，它们使用劳动省的统计数据来编制两个关键的经济数据，以决定是继续、缩减还是扩大量化宽松政策。
One, according to Nikkei, is the quarterly output gap which compares the nation's supply capacity with total demand. Supply capacity is derived from elements such as labor and capital spending. Data from the labor ministry survey, such as the number of hours logged by the workforce, is used to compute the output gap.
其一，根据日经指数数据，季度产出缺口，将国家的供给能力和总需求进行比较。 供给能力来源于劳动力和资本支出等要素。 劳动部的调查数据，比如劳动力的工作时间，被用来计算产出缺口。
Japan's output gap has climbed further and further into positive territory. That has partially informed the BOJ's judgement that "Japan's economy is expanding moderately." The gap is also considered a leading indicator for inflation. A sustained positive reading could lead companies to raise prices and lift wages.
日本的产出缺口进一步攀升至正值。 这在一定程度上支持了日本央行的判断，即"日本经济正在适度扩张" 这一差距也被认为是通货膨胀的领先指标。 持续的积极读数可能会导致企业提高物价和工资。
Meanwhile, even as Japan's consumer price index that excludes fresh foods continues to print below 1%, the BOJ has been stubbornly saying that prices are maintaining momentum toward its 2% inflation target, with the conclusion based in part on the output gap.
与此同时，尽管日本的消费者价格指数(不包括新鲜食品)仍然低于1% ，但日本央行一直顽固地表示，物价正向2%通胀目标前进的势头，其结论部分基于产出缺口。
In retrospect, it now appears that the BOJ may have been "mistaken" and since the underlying data was erroneous for all the years during which Japan's QE was running, the BOJ will now face pressure to rework its entire framework and estimates in light of the data scandal.
回顾过去，现在看来日本央行可能是"错误的"，而且由于在日本实施量化宽松政策的这些年里，基本数据都是错误的，日本央行现在将面临压力，要求它根据数据丑闻重新调整整个框架和估算。
"With regard to the extent of the impact, we intend to undertake a careful examination based on upcoming results of government studies," a BOJ spokesperson told Nikkei, offering a few other details.
"关于影响的程度，我们打算根据即将到来的政府研究结果进行仔细的审查,"日本央行发言人告诉日经新闻，并提供了其他一些细节。
In addition to the output gap, the services producer price index, released monthly, is the second key BOJ indicator reliant on the labor survey. If the BOJ is forced to drastically revise either this indicator or the output gap, it could introduce uncertainty about the conclusions reached by the central bank which has bought trillions in government bonds and stock ETFs relying on... fake economic data!
除了产出缺口，每月公布的服务业生产者价格指数是日本央行依赖劳动力调查的第二个关键指标。 如果日本央行被迫大幅修改这一指标或产出缺口，它可能会引起对央行得出的结论的不确定性，央行依赖于虚假的经济数据购买了数万亿美元的政府债券和股票ETF。
"There is no telling how far the impact has spread," said a senior BOJ official, and for the BOJ to admit that economic data in Japan is now sheer chaos and that inflation had been overstated for years, is nothing short of catastrophic.
日本央行一位高级官员表示:"目前还不清楚这种影响已经蔓延到何种程度。"日本央行承认，目前日本的经济数据完全是一片混乱，多年来通胀一直被夸大，这无异于灾难。
Meanwhile, adding insult to injury, Japan's latest scandal means that whereas everyone had long been making fun of China's economic data for being manipulated, fabricated and goalseeked, Japan's own "data" was far, far worse.
与此同时，雪上加霜的是，日本最近的丑闻意味着，尽管长期以来所有人都在取笑中国的经济数据受到操纵、捏造和篡改，但日本自己的"数据"要糟糕得多。
In the BOJ's quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, at least eight out of roughly 60 diagrams incorporate data from the labor survey. Those include charts depicting individual income, nominal wages and consumer spending. The latest report, released Wednesday, amusingly describes a "steady improvement in the employment and income situation." Alas, it turns out the improvement was only possible because the underlying data was wrong and/or "cooked."
在日本央行的季度经济活动和价格展望中，大约60个图表中至少有8个包含了劳动力调查的数据。 其中包括描述个人收入、名义工资和消费者支出的图表。 周三发布的最新报告有趣地描述了"就业和收入状况的稳步改善" 唉，事实证明，这种改善只可能是因为基础数据是错误的和 / 或"编造"的。
The outlooks are considered valuable since they are based on the conclusions about the economy and prices reached by BOJ Gov. Kuroda. The central bank may see no need to revise earlier statements, but the reliability of the body risks being thrown into question regardless.
这些展望被认为是有价值的，因为它们基于日本央行行长黑田东彦对经济和价格的结论。 央行可能认为没有必要修改此前的声明，但无论如何，该机构的可靠性都有可能受到质疑。
Meanwhile, just to demonstrate how much of a circular farce "data" in developed countries has become, after Japan’s labor ministry admitted it published faulty wage data, 79% of respondents in a Nikkei poll taken between Friday and Sunday said they now can’t trust government statistics, while 14% said they can. And, making the farce complete, a separate poll found that the approval rating for PM Shinzo Abe rose 6% from last month to 53% in the Nikkei poll, with his disapproval rating falling 7%.
与此同时，在日本劳动省承认发布了错误的工资数据后，为了证实发达国家的"数据"在多大程度上已经成为一个循环闹剧，周五和周日之间进行的日经指数调查中，79%的受访者表示，他们现在不能相信政府的统计数据，而14%的受访者表示他们可以。 另一项独立民意调查显示，日本经济新闻社对首相安倍晋三的支持率比上个月上升了6% ，达到53% ，而他的不支持率则下降了7% 。
We wonder how long before Japan admits that all of its polls showing support for the prime minister were just as fake.
我们想知道，日本还要多久才会承认，所有支持首相的民意调查都是假的。
评论：
holdbuysell
It's ok. Japan and China are the only outliers. The other countries are reporting accurately.
没关系。日本和中国是唯一异常的国家。其他国家的报告是准确的。
MusicIsYou
Well no duh, and it's not just Japan, that's why I don't bother reading economic data, it's a load of crap.
不，不，不只是日本，这就是为什么我不费心阅读经济数据，这是一堆废话。
Davidduke2000
are you telling me there are people on this earth who still believe what Japan and western countries say??
你是说地球上还有人仍然相信日本和西方国家的说法吗？？
halcyon
Japan is an excellent testbed for the rest of us following in their footsteps.After a massive monetary expansion experiment and beyond the demographic cliff:
1) Turning the real yield negative won't fix the problem
2) Doing direct stimulus to tax payers won't fix the problem
3) Embarking on massive government spending won't fix the problem
4) Propping up the zombie companies indefinitely won't fix the problem.
5) Buying half of the stock market won't fix the problem
6) Fudging the numbers and trying to lie to banks, the public and companies about GDP growth and inflation won't fix the problem
对于我们其他人来说，日本是一个很好的试验台。在大规模的货币扩张实验之后，在人口悬崖之外：
1）将实际收益率变为负值并不能解决问题。
2）直接刺激纳税人并不能解决问题。
3）大量的政府支出并不能解决问题。
4）无限期地支持僵尸公司并不能解决问题。
5）买一半的股票并不能解决这个问题。
6）回避这些数字，试图向银行、公众和公司撒谎，说GDP增长和通胀不会解决问题。
Sure, in a stable monoculture society like Japan, all those combined might stabilize the patient for 30 years when everybody's in on it, but the patient is still terminally ill.It is going to be a laugh riot seeing many western nations try the same playbook and fail, and finally resort to war when every else has failed.
当然，在日本这样一个稳定的单一文化社会里，当所有人都参与进来的时候，所有这些因素结合起来可能会使病人稳定30年，但病人仍然是绝症。看到许多西方国家尝试同样的剧本而失败，最后在其他国家都失败时诉诸战争，这将是一场可笑的暴乱。
spasquier
I am sooooo afraid, you are soooooo right !!! huhuhu... War will be the ultimate solution, when all the rest has failed.
我害怕，你是对的！！！！…当其余的一切都失败了，战争将是最终的解决办法。
Stormblessed
And the yen is still the safe haven of choice. Go figure.
日元仍然是安全的避风港。算了吧。
RozKo
So I guess all the crap they said about Fukashima being stable and such is all fake too?
所以我猜他们说的关于福岛的那些废话都是假的？
Asoka_The_Great
Yes, fake, fake and fake.Almost 3/4 of all Japan is now radiated by the radiations leaked from the 3 exploded nuclear reactors. So it will be foolish to go to Japan in 2020 for the Olympics.
是的，假的，假的和假的。现在，几乎有三分之四的日本被3个爆炸核反应堆泄漏的辐射所辐射。所以在2020年去日本参加奥运会是愚蠢的。
squid
Radiated with what? Radiation is a moving target depending upon which isotope you're talking about because they decay at various rates.
辐射什么？辐射是一个移动的目标，取决于你所说的同位素，因为它们以不同的速率衰变。
rtb61
Japans underlying problem, the problem that causes economic disturbance is a lack of core primary resources and limited broad scope development opportunities. Like many countries at this time broad socio-political and economic long term decisions need to be made that will promote long term socio-political development and economic stable. A lack of primary resources is the core reason for Japans economic instability and it simply needs to form tighter economic associations with other stable democracies who can reliably supply the resources in partnership with the Japanese economy.
日本的根本问题是，造成经济动荡的问题是缺乏核心的初级资源和有限的广阔的发展机会。同许多国家一样，需要做出广泛的社会政治和经济长期决策，以促进长期社会政治发展和经济稳定。缺乏初级资源是日本经济不稳定的核心原因，它只需要与其他稳定的民主国家形成更紧密的经济联系，这些民主国家能够与日本经济合作可靠地提供资源。
The obvious partner Australia, bountiful with resources but lacking in technological industry, which Japan has a plenty, the perfect partnership that would see both countries as an economic union, lead the rest of the world and lead over and be independent of the US, the economy that currently parasites off both the Japanese and Australian economies.
明显的合作伙伴澳大利亚资源丰富，但缺乏技术产业，日本拥有丰富的技术产业，完美的合作伙伴关系，将两国视为一个经济联盟，领导世界其他地区，领导并独立于美国，目前日本和澳大利亚经济都在寄生的经济。
Aireannpure
And they have run out of things to steal from America.
他们从美国偷走的东西已经用完了。
Ghost who Walks
I think that energy is the big issue for Japan.I remain hopeful of new sources and technology freeing the world from Arabs, Jews and Oil companies.
我认为能源是日本的大问题。我仍然对新的资源和技术充满希望，使世界摆脱阿拉伯人、犹太人和石油公司的束缚。
As for Australia, the problem is not lack of Tech Industry but a lack of vision in Banking and Government. This is exemplified by the lack of a domestic Mining Machinery Industry. Mining equipment is not hi-tech and Australia has stopped making it, but has a huge internal market.An alliance with Japan would prevent the development of Australian Manufacturing.
至于澳大利亚，问题不在于缺乏技术产业，而在于银行业和政府缺乏远见。这就是缺乏国内采矿机械行业的例子。采矿设备不是高科技，澳大利亚已经停止生产，但拥有巨大的国内市场。与日本结盟将阻止澳大利亚制造业的发展。
MusicIsYou
Yeah but the universe knows the truth, that's why Japan's demographics are in freefall. And that's why the West's fertility, and IQs are in freefall. The universe always knows the truth. That's why the west is well on it's way to collapse and nothing at this point will stop it.
是的，但宇宙知道真相，这就是为什么日本的人口结构是自由落体的。这就是为什么西方国家的生育能力和智商都是自由落体的。宇宙总是知道真相。这就是为什么西方国家在崩溃的道路上进展顺利，在这一点上没有任何东西能阻止它。
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