译者 王为
文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明
Without the Outliers, Inflation Is Running Hot. Fed Has Started Mentioning these Measures in the Minutes
by Wolf Richter
Cleveland Fed’s Underlying Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Hottest in the Data.
克利夫兰联储银行编制的通胀指标增速为3.0%，为各类通胀增速指标中的最高值
“Soft inflation?” The inflation measure by the Cleveland Fed — the “Median CPI,” which is based on Consumer Price Index data but removes the outliers in the data to reveal underlying inflation trends — jumped 3.0% for September, the highest in the data series going back to the Financial Crisis, when this measure was launched.
“美国当前的通胀增速真的不高吗？”， 克利夫兰联储银行编制的通胀指标——“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”9月份增速跳升至3.0%，创下该指标于2008年金融危机期间首次发布以来的最高纪录，该指标的编制是基于消费物价指数，但是不含变动幅度通常较大、容易产生异常影响的物价因素，这样就可以更准确地反应美国通胀率的基本变动情况。
By comparison, “core CPI,” which removes food and energy prices, hit 2.4% in August and September, the highest since September 2008:
与该指标形成鲜明对比的是“消费物价指数涨幅的核心值”，即刨除了能源和食品价格变动因素的消费物价增速在8月份和9月份均为2.4%，也是自2008年9月以来的最高值：
The Fed is mentioning these kinds of alternative inflation measures in the minutes of the FOMC meetings – voiced by “some participants” – to show that underlying trends in inflation are pointing upward, except for a few outliers, such as the re-collapse of oil prices and a few other items that skew the overall results, and to show that the “soft inflation readings during the earlier period were transitory.”
在最新发布的9月份联储例会会议纪要中，曾经应“某些与会委员的要求”提到过这些联储重点观察范围之外的通胀指标，这些通胀指标显示美国通胀增速正在趋势性地加速上行，只有几个异常物价因素是个例外，比如近期再次大幅下挫的油价以及其他几个与整体物价走势背道而驰的物价因素，还提到“在趋势的早期阶段表现出来的通胀增速疲软状态是临时性的”。
The oil bust that started in mid-2014 did a job on overall inflation data. The price of oil plunged by over 70%. Crude oil is not only refined into transportation and heating fuels; it’s also used as feedstock for the chemical industry. And that worked itself into the broader pricing data. In October last year, oil prices had recovered partially, with WTI trading in the range of $75 a barrel. But then oil prices collapsed again, and are now down 28% from a year ago.
2014年中开始大跌的油价对美国整体的通胀走势产生了影响，当时油价最多时下跌了超过70%。原油不仅会被加工成运输燃料和取暖用油，而且还可以作为化学工业的原材料，这就导致油价的变动会体现在更广泛的物价变动因素中。去年十月份西德克萨斯轻质原油的油价曾一度出现反弹至75美元附近，但随后再次遭遇暴跌，当前的油价与一年前相比下跌了28%。
Oil does this from time to time, as do agricultural commodities, and that is why inflation measures are offered in at least two versions: “All items” and “without food and energy.” The all-items CPI in September rose a tame 1.7% from a year ago. But the CPI without food and energy (“core CPI,” the blue line in the chart above) jumped 2.4% — the fastest rate since September 2008.
油价经常发生这样比较大的波动，农产品的价格也是如此，这就是为啥通胀指标会被分成至少两大类：一类是“包含所有物价因素的通胀指标”，另一类是“不含食品和能源物价因素的通胀增速”，9月份的全物价通胀增速与去年同期相比温和上涨了1.7%，但是“不含食品和能源物价因素的通胀增速”，即上图中蓝线表示的“消费物价指数涨幅的核心值”的同比增速达到2.4%，为2008年9月以来的最高纪录。
Energy and agricultural commodities are not the only items that skew overall inflation readings. There are other items as well that – for reasons unrelated to inflation – more or less briefly spike or collapse, before reverting toward the mean. The moves are related to short-term market manias, supply crunches, supply gluts, sudden price wars, and other factors that are unrelated to the purchasing power of the dollar (which is what consumer price inflation measures).
食品和能源的价格不是导致整体通胀指标出现异常表现的唯一因素，其他一些价格因素也会扭曲整体通胀指标的走势，变动原因虽然与整体通胀走势无关，但在最终回归正常的变动趋势之前或多或少地会出现某种程度地快速上涨或快速下跌，与物价的异常波动有关的因素有市场的短期混乱、供求失衡、骤然爆发的价格战以及其他与美元购买力无关的因素，而美元的购买力是消费物价指数统计的基础。
After the turmoil of the Financial Crisis, the Cleveland Fed launched the “Median CPI” in the chart above to show underlying trends of inflation in consumer prices and to predict inflation trends over the medium time horizon.
在2008年金融危机爆发后，克利夫兰联储银行发布了新编制的通胀指标——“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”，即上图中的红线，该指标反应的是美国消费物价的基本走势，并可被用于预测通胀的中期变动趋势。
The Median CPI tracks the mid-point (median) of the 45 CPI components, with a cumulative importance of near 50%:
“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”跟踪的是消费物价指数构成中45种商品的价格波幅的中位数，其对整个指数的波动的影响程度基本上处于50%这个位置上，在下表中：
-
Above it are the components with the biggest price declines and the lowest price gains that combined weigh about 50% in the index.
高于“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”的是跌幅最大及涨幅最低的物价因素，在指数中的占比为50%左右；
Below it are the components with the biggest price gains, weighing the remaining 50%.
低于“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”的是涨幅最大的物价因素，在指数中的占比保持在50%。
The line in between marks the midpoint of CPI, hence the “Median CPI.” This line in the middle came in at 3.0% annualized rate in September.
表中用加粗的线表示的是全部45种商品波幅中位于中间位置上的价格波动值，这就是“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”， 9月份45个物价年化波幅的中位数是3.0%。
The table (via the Cleveland Fed) shows the 45 CPI components for September 2019, from the components with the largest price declines (at the top, motor fuel: -25.1%) to the components with the largest price gains (at the bottom, lodging away from home: +28.1%). The mid-point (the point closest to a cumulative weight of 50) is the “median CPI,” and is marked in bold (if your smartphone clips one of the four columns, hold it in landscape position):
下表显示的是构成消费物价指数的45种商品的价格在2019年9月份的波幅，跌幅最大的是车用燃料油-25.1%的油价跌幅，离家在外住宿费用28.1%的涨幅最高。波幅的中位数也就是在整个物价指数中的变动权重值最接近50%的物价波幅就是“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”，在途中用加重的黑线表示。
<table><tbody>As you can see, some prices surge and other prices plunge, and many prices move up and down in smaller increments. Part of those moves are due to temporary factors. CPI is a weighted average of these moves and is skewed by outliers. Over the long term, the moves by these outliers wash out as they revert, but over the median term, they distort CPI.
可以看到，有些商品的价格在大涨，有些商品的价格在大跌，还有很多商品的价格涨跌幅度不大。价格波幅中有一部分是受临时性因素的影响，消费物价指数是对各类商品价格的波幅加权平均计算后的结果，但其中某些商品异常的价格波动会导致计算的结果被扭曲。从长期来看，这些异常的价格波动会被商品价格反方向的异常波动而抵消，但从中期来看，异常的价格波动会扭曲消费物价指数的表现。
That’s the reason why CPI is so volatile though the actual loss of the purchasing power of the dollar over time is on a fairly steady trend.
这就是虽然随着时间的演变美元的购买力总体表现仍相当稳定，但美国的消费物价指数却如此剧烈波动的原因。
The Cleveland Fed attempts to show the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar over the medium term, not influenced by the outliers. And based on this measure, the inflation trend is heating up. And “some participants” at the FOMC have started to point this out.
克利夫兰联储银行试图揭示出，在不考虑物价异常波动因素的前提下，美元购买力在未来中期的损失程度。根据该行编制的“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”，美国的物价水平正在加速上涨，而联储中的“某些与会委员”已经开始注意到这一点了。
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