中文導讀
在全球抗疫中，比爾蓋茨作為一名硅谷精英確實是看問題十分通透。他不僅重視中國的抗疫經驗，更是在美國“退群”WHO之後，巨資捐款支持世衛組織進行疫苗研發。
那麼，他是怎麼看待這次疫情的呢？
在他看來，居家隔離令取消、企業復工、學校開課等等都不意味著生活能重回正軌。路漫漫其修遠兮，他認為現階段也只是剛剛開始的結束。或許只有等疫苗研製成功，人類才是真正安全的。
（公眾號：趣讀經濟學人）
雙語閱讀
1
WHEN HISTORIANS write the book on the covid-19 pandemic, what we’ve lived through so far will probably take up only the first third or so. The bulk of the story will be what happens next.
當歷史學家著書描繪這場全球新冠肺炎疫情時，到目前為止，我們可能只經歷了疫情的前三分之一。故事的主要內容將是接下來發生的事情。
take up 佔據
2
In most of Europe, East Asia and North America the peak of the pandemic will probably have passed by the end of this month. In a few weeks’ time, many hope, things will return to the way they were in December. Unfortunately, that won’t happen.
在歐洲、東亞和北美的大部分地區，疫情的高峰將會在本月底結束。許多人盼望，再過幾週日子能夠回到去年12月份的樣子。但是很不幸，他們並不會如願。
3
I believe that humanity will beat this pandemic, but only when most of the population is vaccinated. Until then, life will not return to normal. Even if governments lift shelter-in-place orders and businesses reopen their doors, humans have a natural aversion to exposing themselves to disease. Airports won’t have large crowds. Sports will be played in basically empty stadiums. And the world economy will be depressed because demand will stay low and people will spend more conservatively.
我相信人類終將能夠打贏這場“戰疫”，但是這要等到大部分人接種疫苗之後。在那之前，生活不會重回正軌。即使政府解除隔離限制，企業復工，人類也會因為害怕感染病毒而不敢真正放開手腳四處進行活動。機場人流不會再人山人海，體育賽事也鮮有人會到場觀看。由於人們花錢會更加保守，需求會持續低迷，世界經濟將會陷入蕭條。
shelter-in-place 就地隔離；居家隔離
aversion 厭惡；反感
4
As the pandemic slows in developed nations, it will accelerate in developing ones. Their experience, however, will be worse. In poorer countries, where fewer jobs can be done remotely, distancing measures won’t work as well. The virus will spread quickly, and health systems won’t be able to care for the infected. Covid-19 overwhelmed cities like New York, but the data suggest that even a single Manhattan hospital has more intensive-care beds than most African countries. Millions could die.
疫情在發達國家放緩的同時，也會在發展中國家進入加速期。而後者將要遭遇更加慘重的經歷。在欠發達國家，可遠程進行的工作較少，社交隔離措施也不會有太大作用。那麼疫情會加速蔓延，醫療體系將無法照料到所有的感染者。像紐約這樣的城市，疫情也讓其醫療體系陷入癱瘓，而資料顯示，僅是曼哈頓裡一間醫院的床位就比大多數非洲國家全國都要多。因此，數以百萬計的人可能會因此喪失。
5
Wealthy nations can help, for example, by making sure critical supplies don’t just go to the highest bidder. But people in rich and poor places alike will be safe only once we have an effective medical solution for this virus, which means a vaccine.
富裕國家可以伸出援手，例如確保關鍵醫療物資並非只能價高者得。但只要我們找到了應對新冠病毒的有效醫療方案，無論身處發達國家還是發展中甚至欠發達國家，人們都會是安全的。這個解決方案就是疫苗。
bidder 出價人；投標人
6
Over the next year, medical researchers will be among the most important people in the world. Fortunately, even before this pandemic, they were making giant leaps in vaccinology. Conventional vaccines teach your body to recognise the shape of a pathogen, usually by introducing a dead or weakened form of the virus. But there’s also a new kind of immunisation that doesn’t require researchers to spend time growing large volumes of pathogens. These mRNA vaccines use genetic code to give your cells instructions for how to mount an immune response. They can probably be produced faster than traditional vaccines.
在未來的一年裡，醫學研究人員將會是世界上最重要的人群之一。幸運的是，他們早在這場疫情之前就已經在疫苗學上取得了巨大的進步。傳統的疫苗通常是通過往身體裡注射一種已經死亡或是毒性較弱的病毒來讓身體能夠對病原體的形狀進行識別。但也有一種新的免疫方法，不需要研究人員花時間培養大量的病原體。這種信使RNA疫苗利用基因序列來指導細胞如何產生免疫反應。或許它們研製出來的速度會比傳統疫苗要快。
make giant leaps in 在..方面取得了巨大的進步（寫作很好用）
genetic code 遺傳密碼；基因序列
7
My hope is that, by the second half of 2021, facilities around the world will be manufacturing a vaccine. If that’s the case, it will be a history-making achievement: the fastest humankind has ever gone from recognising a new disease to immunising against it.
我希望是，在2021年的下半年，全世界範圍內能夠生產出一種有效的疫苗。若真是這樣，這將會是一個歷史性的成就：人類有史以來從認識一種新的疾病到對其產生免疫的最快記錄。
mandate 要求；指令
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Apart from this progress in vaccines, two other big medical breakthroughs will emerge from the pandemic. One will be in the field of diagnostics. The next time a novel virus crops up, people will probably be able to test for it at home in the same way they test for pregnancy. Instead of peeing on a stick, though, they’llswab their nostrils. Researchers could have such a test ready within a few months of identifying a new disease.
除了疫苗上的進展，兩個醫療上的重大突破也會在這次疫情中橫空出世。一個就是診斷領域。當下次出現一種新型病毒的時候，人們大概就能像檢驗懷孕一樣在家對其進行檢測。不過是用棉籤來擦拭鼻孔（咽拭子檢驗），而不是在驗孕棒上尿尿。在發現新疾病的幾個月內，研究人員可以為這種測試做好準備。
crop up 突然出現
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The third breakthrough will be in antiviral drugs. These have been an underinvested branch of science. We haven’t been as effective at developing drugs to fight viruses as we have those to fight bacteria. But that will change. Researchers will develop large, diverse libraries of antivirals, which they’ll be able to scan through and quickly find effective treatments for novel viruses.
第三個突破將會是抗病毒藥物。這些都是投資不足的科學分支。我們在研發抗病毒藥物方面不如研發抗細菌藥物那樣有效。但這種情況會發生改變。研究人員將開發大規模、多樣化的抗病毒藥物庫，他們將能夠掃描這些病毒庫並迅速找到針對新病毒的有效治療方法。
10
All three technologies will prepare us for the next pandemic by allowing us to intervene early, when the number of cases is still very low. But the underlying research will also assist us in fighting existing infectious diseases—and even help advance cures for cancer. (Scientists have long thought mRNA vaccines could lead to an eventual cancer vaccine. Until covid-19, though, there wasn’t much research into how they could be produced en masse at even somewhat affordable prices.)
這三種技術將使我們能夠在確診病例數很低的情況下及早干預，為下一次全球流行病做好準備。但是這種背後的研究也將幫助我們與現有的傳染病作鬥爭，甚至有助於癌症的治療。(科學家們長期以來一直認為信使RNA疫苗有助於癌症疫苗的研發。不過，直到新冠肺炎之前，對於如何能以相對較負擔得起的價格進行大規模生產，研究並不多。
11
Our progress won’t be in science alone. It will also be in our ability to make sure everyone benefits from that science. In the years after 2021, I think we’ll learn from the years after 1945. With the end of the second world war, leaders built international institutions like the UN to prevent more conflicts. After covid-19, leaders will prepare institutions to prevent the next pandemic.
我們的進步不僅僅是在科學上。我們也有能力確保每個人都能從這門科學中受益。2021年以後，我想我們會從1945年以後吸取教訓。隨著第二次世界大戰的結束，各國領導人建立了像聯合國這樣的國際機構來防止更多的衝突。在新冠肺炎疫情之後，各國領導人要確保各個醫療體系能為預防下一波全球疫情做好準備。
12
These will be a mix of national, regional and global organisations. I expect they will participate in regular “germ games” in the same way as armed forces take part in war games. These will keep us ready for the next time a novel virus jumps from bats or birds to humans. They will also prepare us should a bad actor create an infectious disease in a home-made lab and try to weaponise it. By practising for a pandemic, the world will also be defending itself against an act of bioterrorism.
這些體系既有國家級別的、也有地區級別的和全球級別的。我希望他們能像武裝部隊參加軍事演習一樣，定期參加“細菌遊戲”。這能讓我們為下一次新病毒從蝙蝠或鳥類傳播給人類做好準備。要是有不法分子在自制實驗室裡製造了一種傳染病，並試圖將其武器化，他們也會為我們做好準備。通過為全球疫情做準備，世界也將保護自己免受生物恐怖主義行為的侵害。
Keep it global 保持全球化
13
I hope wealthy nations include poorer ones in these preparations, especially by devoting more foreign aid to building up their primary health-care systems. Even the most self-interested person—or isolationist government—should agree with this by now. This pandemic has shown us that viruses don’t obey border laws and that we are all connected biologically by a network of microscopic germs, whether we like it or not. If a novel virus appears in a poor country, we want its doctors to have the ability to spot it and contain it as soon as possible.
我希望富裕國家在這些準備工作中也能同時向欠發達國家伸出援手，尤其是通過提供更多的外國援助來建立他們的初級衛生保健系統。哪怕是最自私的人或是最孤立的政府現在也應該同意這一點。這次全球疫情向我們表明，病毒眼裡沒有邊界法律，不管我們喜不喜歡，我們所有人在生物學上都是由微生物網絡連接在一起的。如果一種新的病毒出現在一個貧窮的國家，我們希望該國的醫生有能力發現它並儘快控制它。
14
None of this is inevitable. History doesn’t follow a set course. People choose which direction to take, and may make the wrong turn. The years after 2021 may resemble the years after 1945. But the best analogy for today might be November 10th 1942. Britain had just won its first land victory of the war, and Winston Churchill declared in a speech: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
這些都不是不可避免的。歷史並不是一成不變的。人們可以選擇走哪個方向，也可能會轉錯彎。2021年後的歲月可能類似於1945年後的歲月。但是今天最好的類比可能就是1942年11月10日。當時英國剛剛贏得了第一次陸地戰爭的勝利，溫斯頓·丘吉爾在一次演講中說:“這不是結束，甚至不是結束的開始，而可能是開始的結束。”
