在見證過美股數次熔斷後，這一次，我們又見證了史無前例的“負油價”。
當地時間20日，紐約商品交易所5月交貨的輕質原油期貨價格暴跌超300%，收於每桶-37.63美元。這是自石油期貨從1983年在紐約商品交易所開始交易後首次跌入負數交易。
The May futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil prices, crashed 300 percent from 17.85 U.S. dollars a barrel to minus 37.63 U.S. dollars a barrel on Monday, the worst level since 1983.
那麼，如何看待油價一夜暴“負”？
大宗商品研究公司ICIS安迅思中國分析主管李莉對CGTN記者表示，美國“負油價”的出現相當於是極端情況的預演，不反映真實價格。“昨天的極端價格與期貨投機操作有很大關聯，不僅僅是全球供求不平衡所致，因此不完全代表實際的油價情況。”
李莉解釋道：“這種極端情況主要歸因於期貨到期合約的逼倉，程序化算法交易的放大也起到了推波助瀾的作用。”她認為，新冠肺炎疫情期間的“封鎖”措施導致原油需求腰斬，交割地庫容接近上限，這些因素都加大了價格非理性的程度。
The negative U.S. oil futures were a preview of extreme situations and didn't reflect the real price, a global commodity expert said as the U.S. oil futures plunged below zero U.S. dollars a barrel on Monday for the first time in history.
"The extreme prices yesterday had great relations to futures speculation, not just because of global supply-demand imbalance, so they didn't fully represent the actual oil price situation," Li Li, China head of analytics with ICIS, a global commodity intelligence provider told CGTN.
"Such an extreme case is attributed to the tight positions of the expiring contract and the amplification of programmatic trading," Li explained, adding that a collapse in oil demand from pandemic-driven lockdowns and storage facilities nearing their capacities also played a role.
由於5月期貨合約於21日到期，富樂敦首席策略分析師Jimmy Zhu認為，買家因此急於做反向對沖交易，以儘可能止損。他還認為，技術性因素是油價下跌的主要原因。
值得一提的是，在21日開盤後，油價又開始反彈。但由於對供需失衡的擔憂仍然存在，漲幅因而受到限制。
此外，李莉表示：“6月合約交易價還是在每桶20美元以上，這個才是相對真實的價格。”
The May contract were due to expire on Tuesday. "So buyers were eager to do reverse hedging transactions in order to stop losses as much as possible," Jimmy Zhu, the chief strategist at Singapore-based Fullerton Research told CGTN. Zhu also believed that technical things were the main reasons behind the negative oil futures.
Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday. The WTI crude for May delivery went up 38.73 U.S. dollars at 1.10 U.S. dollars a barrel by 0117 GMT. But gains were capped amid unresolved concerns over imbalance between supply and demand.
The U.S. oil futures for June jumped 8.4 percent to 22.15 U.S. dollars a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude for June delivery was up 1.9 percent at 26.06 U.S. dollars per barrel.
"The prices for June futures are still above 20 U.S. dollars a barrel, and this is the relatively real price," Li told CGTN.
道瓊斯指數週一收盤下跌592.10點，跌幅2.44%，報23650.44點 。標普500指數週一收盤下跌51.40點，跌幅1.79%，報2823.16點。納斯達克指數週一收盤下跌89.40點，跌幅1.03%，報8560.73點 。今年截至目前，能源股已經下跌了45%。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 2.44 percent to end at 23,650.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.79 percent to 2,823.16. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.03 percent to 8,560.73.
This year, to date, the energy index has lost 45 percent, by far the worst performer among 11 sectors.
金融危機即將來臨？
Financial crisis on the horizon?
在低油價的衝擊下，亞洲最大的燃油貿易商之一新加坡興隆集團債務危機持續發酵。該集團被曝出隱瞞8億美元虧損，並於20日申請了破產保護。
油企破產是否會觸發銀行危機？李莉認為應該不會，她告訴CGTN記者：“截至目前，還沒有出現大面積類似興隆或者與之關聯的案例。”
Singapore-based Hin Leong Trading (Pte) Ltd, one of the largest fuel traders in Asia and an operator of a major tanker fleet, has admitted to 800 million U.S. dollars in undisclosed losses and filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday.
"I don't think there would be a banking crisis, as there have been no cases similar or related to Hin Leong till now," Li told CGTN, when asked whether fuel traders' bankruptcy will lead to a banking crisis or even a financial crisis.
對此，Jimmy Zhu也表達了類似的觀點：“不太會像2008年那樣油企接連破產。”他進一步解釋道，雖然油企的債務相對較高，但與銀行等金融機構相比，違約的連鎖反應將會降低。
他表示，雷曼兄弟破產引發2008年金融危機，是因為其本身作為一家全球性金融服務公司，是全球金融體系的一部分，因此很容易在全球範圍內引發一系列的債務違約。
"Oil companies are unlikely to go bankrupt one after another like 2008," Zhu agreed with Li. "Although the debt of oil players is relatively high, the chain reaction of default will be lower compared with banks and other financial institutions," he further explained.
The reason that Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy triggered the 2008 financial crisis is that Lehman itself, as a global financial services firm, was part of the global financial system, so it easily activated a series of debt defaults worldwide, Zhu said.
然而，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院研究員劉英則持不同的觀點。她認為，金融危機已經發生，疫情是壓倒駱駝的最後一根稻草。“流動性危機早前已出現，此次負油價帶來了債務危機。”她說。
However, Liu Ying, Research Fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China disagrees, saying that the financial crisis is already taking place as the structural problems among U.S. stocks have not been resolved since 2008, and the epidemic is the last straw to break the camel's back.
"The liquidity crisis has emerged earlier, and the negative oil price brought about a debt crisis," Liu added.
另外，至於6月合約是不是也會在臨近到期時重演5月合約的悲劇，專家們也分享了各自的看法。
李莉表示，未來幾個月，全球原油市場會不斷緩解，所以6月合約到期的時候，情況會有所好轉。Jimmy Zhu認為，6月合約取決於下個月歐美復工的情況。他指出：“由於需求下降，我們看到了存儲面臨的真正壓力。至少在下個月之前，價格將繼續承受壓力 。”
"In the coming months, the global crude oil market will continue to ease, so the situation will improve when the June contract expires," Li told CGTN.
Where the June contract will go depends on the work resumption in Europe and America next month, Zhu said.
"As demand fell, we saw real pressure on oil storage. At least until next month, the oil price will continue to bear the stress," Zhu cited.
需求雪崩
A collapse in oil demand
油價首次破零，這是一個令人不安的跡象，表明今年上半年全球供需出現了前所未有的失衡。新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延之際，幾乎一切旅行暫停，經濟活動受到抑制，原油供應一直遠遠超過需求。
受疫情影響，許多工廠關閉，飛機停飛，汽車也基本停用。“遏制病毒傳播的努力使工業需求降至歷史最低水平。”Jimmy Zhu告訴CGTN記者，需求疲軟導致交易流動性減弱，結果造成WTI價格大跌，並給對沖方造成鉅額損失。
上週石油輸出國組織歐佩克與多個非歐佩克產油國達成一項減產協議，首階段將從今年5月開始每日減產原油約1000萬桶。但李莉和Jimmy Zhu都認為，雖然減產規模世上罕見，但遠不足以平衡市場。
國際能源署預測，4月和5月全球石油需求將分別減少2900萬桶和2600萬桶。李莉說：“減產即使能夠落實，也僅相當於補了不到一半的漏洞。”
Monday's plunge is a troubling sign of an unprecedented global supply-demand imbalance in the first half of the year, as supply of crude oil has been far above demand since the coronavirus pandemic halted traveling and curbed economic activities.
"Efforts to curb the virus have made the industrial demand for oil drop to the lowest level in history," Zhu told CGTN. During the coronavirus outbreak, many factories are closed, with vehicles and airplanes standing still.
"The weak demand led to a weaker trading liquidity, finally resulting in a sharp decline in WTI prices and huge losses to hedgers," Zhu said.
A deal announced last week between OPEC and its peers would have slashed output by about 10 million barrels a day from May. However, both Li and Zhu believed that the record output cuts were still far from enough to balance the market.
The IEA forecasted that the loss of global oil demand in April and May will be 29 million barrels and 26 million barrels per day respectively. "Even if the reduction is implemented, it will only offset less than half of the loss in demand," Li said.
無處安放
A storage problem
“與此同時，依賴於管道運輸的原油，由於無處安放，目前正在折價交易 。”Jimmy Zhu說，全球各地的儲油量正在迅速增加，而在原油難以運輸的地區，生產商可能很快就會被迫向消費者支付費用，這實際上將油價壓低至零以下。
紐約商品交易所交易的“西得克薩斯中間基原油”需在位於俄克拉荷馬州的庫欣進行交割。據彭博社報道，庫欣的石油庫存自2月底以來已上漲48%，達到近5500萬桶。
摩根士丹利表示，隨著全球各地的石油儲備設施即將被填滿，海上儲油量也在大幅增加，海上儲罐將在60天內存滿。
彭博社稱，特朗普政府因擔心油企破產可能產生連鎖反應，提議向石油開採商支付費用，讓他們把石油留在地下，直到油價回升再繼續開採，從而保護生產商免受直接損失。
"Also, crude oil, which depends on pipeline transportation, is trading at a discount because it is nowhere to be placed and will often block the pipeline," Zhu told CGTN.
Crude stockpiles at Cushing in Oklahoma, which is the U.S. key storage hub and delivery point of the WTI contract, have jumped 48 percent to almost 55 million barrels since the end of February, according to Bloomberg.
U.S. crude inventories were expected to rise by about 16.1 million barrels in the week to April 17 after posting the biggest one-week build in history, according to Reuters. Analysts expected gasoline stocks to rise by 3.7 million barrels last week.
As oil storage facilities around the world are to be filled up, offshore oil storage has also increased significantly, where storage tanks will be full within 60 days, according to Morgan Stanley.
Concerned about the possible ripple effect from oil bankruptcies, the Trump Administration is proposing to pay oil drillers to keep their oil in the ground until prices recovered, so as to protect producers from immediate losses, according to Bloomberg.
"Oil reserves worldwide have been increased rapidly, and in areas where crude oil is difficult to transport due to traffic control, oil producers may soon be forced to pay for consumers, which actually undercut oil prices below zero," Zhu told CGTN.
敲響警鐘
Alarm bells ring over collapse of petrodollar
在劉英看來，美國原油價格的歷史性暴跌使得石油和美元這兩大支柱嚴重受損值得警惕。
美國剛剛成長為石油出口全球第一大國。油價暴跌實則給WTI國際油價、石油美元都帶來了巨大的信譽損失。
她表示，中國作為石油消費大國和進口大國，需要發展好人民幣石油期貨市場，推進人民幣國際化，完善全球治理。
Liu cautioned that the two pillars of oil and the U.S. dollar were severely damaged by the historical crash of U.S. crude oil prices.
She elaborated that the U.S. has just become the world's largest oil exporter before the WTI price turned negative, and the collapse brought huge reputation damage to the WTI international oil prices and petrodollar.
"As a major oil consumer and importer, the route China must take is to develop a Renminbi denominated oil futures market," said Liu.
China has launched its oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in March 2018, aiming at establishing an Asian oil price benchmark. Denominated in yuan, the exchange's total trade volume exceeded 17 trillion yuan (2.4 trillion U.S. dollars) in one year, ranking among the world's top three crude oil futures contracts.
She continued that in response to the novel coronavirus shock, the U.S. Fed has launched unlimited quantitative easing and unlimited currency swaps. Liu warned that even though the helicopter greenback is still favorable during the crisis, credibility of the dollar as a global currency has been severely damaged.
"As a major developing country, China should participate in international economic and financial governance while developing its own economy. It is necessary to promote yuan internationalization and improve global economic and financial governance," said Liu.
