特朗普稅改：兩減一改、三大新稅種和對美國經濟的影響
【作者】餘永定
【導讀】2017年12月22日，經美國總統特朗普簽署，美國《減稅和就業法案》完成立法程序。中國學界對美國政府推行特朗普聲稱的美國“歷史上最大規模減稅”的決斷印象深刻，並給予了積極評價。然而，我們對美國稅改的認識還是粗淺和不準確的。
本文的目的是提供一份關於美國稅改的比較翔實和準確的介紹, 並解釋採納相應稅改措施的原由。本文主要討論美國公司稅的稅改問題。美國公司稅稅改包括三個主要部分。第一部分是公司所得稅由35%到21%的大幅下調。對此，中國經濟學家十分關注，但遺憾的是，他們往往滿足於把美國稅改理解為公司所得稅減稅。第二部分是美國由全球徵稅制到屬地徵稅制的轉變。這種轉變是美國稅改的一個關鍵部分。第三部分是設立了一些新稅種，以回應過渡到屬地制所帶來的新問題。在這些新稅種中，最重要者有三：全球低稅無形收入稅、海外無形收入稅和稅基侵蝕稅。本文對這些稅種的徵收、功能以及它們對美國經濟的影響做了詳細解釋。
在對美國新稅制的作用和功能有了較好了解的基礎上，本文作出的結論是：雖然稅改對美國經濟增長起到一定提振作用，但這種作用是有限的。首先，美國經濟目前處於充分就業狀態，減稅導致的消費和投資的增加難以使經濟增長速度的顯著增加。其次，減稅導致公共債務的增加，而公共債務的增加必將影響美國經濟增速的增加。稅改對美國國際收支平衡的影響具有很大不確定性。因此，美元未來既可能升值也可能貶值。雖然中國應該密切關注美國稅改的短期和長期影響，但是也不應過於誇大其對美國經濟和中國經濟的影響。中國還是應該根據國內、外經濟的大局進行宏觀調控，根據自己的時間表推進改革（包括稅制改革）的各項進程。
【關鍵詞】特朗普稅改 新稅制 稅制改革
Trump’s Tax Reform Explained
Yu Yongding
US President Donald Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into a law on December 22 2017. Chinese academic circles are impressed by the US government’s determination in pushing through what the president called the largest tax cut in the history of the United States, and responded to the tax reform very positively. However, generally speaking, Chinese scholars’ knowledge of the US tax reform is rather sketchy and imprecise.
This article is aimed to depict a more detailed and accurate picture of the US tax reform and explain the underlying causes for the reform measures. Because the 70,000-page US tax code is extremely complicated, the article has to be focused on corporate tax reform, which contains three main elements. The first is a sweeping cut of corporate income tax from 35% to 21%, which is what Chinese economists are concerned most about. Unfortunately, many Chinese economists have taken the tax cuts as an equivalent to the US’ tax reform. The second is the switching from a worldwide taxation system to a territorial one, which is a key component of the tax reform. The third is to create some new types of taxes, in response to the new situation under a territorial system. Among them are tax on global intangible low-taxed income (GILTI), tax on foreign-derived intangible income (FDII), and base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT). The article explains in details how those taxes are collected and what are their functions as well as their impacts on the US economy.
Based on a better understanding of the working and functions of the US’ new taxation system, the article concludes that although the tax cuts will boost US’ economic growth, its growth-boosting effect will be limited due to the fact that the US economy currently is growing at full capacity and the US’ public debt will increase materially as a result of the tax cuts. The impact of the tax reform on US international balance of payments is not clear-cut, and hence the dollar can either rise or fall in the future. Although China should pay close attention to the impacts of the US’ tax cuts both in the short and longer run, it should avoid over-exaggerating the impact of the tax reform on both the US economy and the Chinese economy. China should implement its macroeconomic policies in accordance with domestic and international situation and carry out institutional reforms, including reform of its tax system, based on its own agenda.
特朗普稅改“衝擊波”：經濟影響與政策應對
【作者】鄭聯盛 陳旭
【導讀】特朗普政府的稅改是美國政府1986年以來最為重要的一次稅收改革，其核心內容是降低企業所得稅，提高美國企業國際競爭力。特朗普稅改具有促進再工業化、緩釋政治壓力、夯實復甦基礎等重要背景，稅改從簡化稅制、降低企業稅負和保障家庭收入等領域實施。企業所得稅稅率從35%下調至21%，對於美國大型跨國公司具有最大的政策紅利。特朗普稅改對於經濟增長具有一定的積極作用，但是，對於財政赤字和公共債務的影響整體是負面的，未來將在預算和公共債務上限等方面遭遇多重壓力。特朗普減稅疊加美聯儲加息、縮表將對世界經濟造成新的外溢效應，可能對直接投資、國際資本流動以及稅收安排等造成明顯影響，對於中國的直接投資、資本流動、匯率穩定、外儲安全、金融穩定以及國際競爭力等產生顯著影響。反思中國企業稅負相對較高的內在根源，審視中國以企業稅為支撐的稅收收入體系，構建現代財稅體系，並全面深化經濟體制改革，以市場化改革來緩釋外部衝擊可能是最優的政策選擇。
【關鍵詞】稅收改革 企業所得稅 外溢效應
US’ Tax Reform: Economic Impact and Countermeasures
Zheng Liansheng and Chen Xu 26
The tax reform of the Donald Trump administration is one of the most important tax reforms of the US government since 1986. The core objective of the tax reform is to reduce corporate income taxes and improve the international competitiveness of US companies. The Trump tax reform aims to promote re-industrialization, ease political pressure and consolidate the foundation for sustainable economic recovery. It is implemented by carrying reform to simplify the tax system, lower corporate tax burdens, and ensure household incomes. The corporate income tax rate was reduced from 35% to 21%, which has the largest policy dividend for large US multinationals. The Trump tax reform has a positive effect on economic growth. However, its overall impact on fiscal deficits and public debt is negative. In the future, the Trump administration will face significant pressure from fiscal budget and public debt ceilings. The tax cut, together with the Fed’s interest rate hikes and balance sheet contraction, will produce new spillover effects on the world economy. It may have a significant and complicated impact on China’s direct investment, capital flows, exchange rate stability, foreign exchange reserve security, financial stability and international competitiveness. It may be the optimal policy for China to rethink the intrinsic root causes of the relatively high tax burdens of its enterprises, review its tax revenue system that is supported by corporate taxes, build a modern fiscal system, and comprehensively deepen economic and financial system reforms to use market-oriented reforms to mitigate external shocks.
里根與特朗普稅制改革的比較分析及對中國的啟示
【作者】楊志勇
【導讀】2017年12月22日，特朗普簽署《減稅與就業法》，美國稅制改革方案終於落地。這一以“減稅”名義出臺的改革方案的實質是什麼？1980年代，里根總統進行過兩次稅制改革，改革也是以“減稅”的名義進行的。里根和特朗普的稅制改革有什麼不一樣，各自能實現什麼樣的不同目標？里根稅制改革促進了無通貨膨脹下的經濟增長和充分就業目標的實現，所確立的寬稅基、低稅率、簡稅制的稅改做法引領世界稅制改革。里根稅制改革更多是從國內因素出發的；特朗普稅制改革中“美國優先”的說法明顯考慮了國際競爭因素。特朗普稅制改革的國內減稅力度總體較大，必須引起注意。里根和特朗普稅制改革都特別注意改革的協調配套。中國應在全面深化改革中，找好稅制改革的合理定位，以全面減稅加以應對，促進對中國有利的國際稅收秩序的形成。
【關鍵詞】稅制改革 里根稅改 特朗普稅改 中國稅制改革 比較稅制
Tax Reform of Reagan and Trump: a Comparative Study and Implications for China
Yang Zhiyong
US President Donald Trump signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on December 22, 2017. The reform has been regarded as a tax reduction reform. What are the differences between Trump’s tax reform and Reagan’s tax reduction reform in the 1980s? The Reagan reform helped meet the target of economic growth, full employment and low inflation and the practices of broadening tax base, cutting tax rates and simplifying tax systems had guided the global tax reform at that time. Reagan’s tax reform is more oriented to domestic considerations. The Trump administration claimed that the reform targeted the domestic economy, but the slogan of “America First” obviously refers to international competition. The Trump administration’s overall tax reduction is steep and must not be neglected. Both the Reagan administration and the Trump administration pay special attention to coordination of reforms. China should comprehensively deepen its reforms and properly implement tax reform and reduce tax rates across-the-board to promote the formation of a new international tax order that benefits China.
美國對華經貿政策轉變與兩國貿易戰風險上升
【作者】盧鋒 李雙雙
【導讀】特朗普主政第一年中美經貿關係雖維持大體平穩走勢，然而美國政策朝加強戰略博弈方向調整，兩國經貿關係暗流湧動張力不減。尤其是2017年底以來美國官方一系列組合政策信息，顯示其強鷹派的對華經貿政策調整佈局已大體完成。2017年美國對華貿易爭端立案數達到歷史最高水平，為2018年發起更多貿易摩擦備足了彈藥。依據各方面情況觀察，2018年中美經貿關係可能會面臨更為困難複雜局面，中美貿易摩擦顯著增加應是大概率事件。
【關鍵詞】美國對華經貿政策 中美經貿關係 中美貿易戰
Changing Trade and Economic Policy of the US and Rising Risks of
China-US Trade WarLu Feng and Li Shuangshuang
During the first year of the Donald Trump administration, the Sino-US economic and trade relations had been maintained relatively stable. However, the US’ policy has been adjusted toward putting more emphasis on strategic competition with China in the area of trade and economy. As a result, bilateral economic and trade relations have become more strained. The new round of hawkish reorientation of the US economic and trade relationship toward China has been largely completed by the end of 2017. The number of China-US trade disputes initiated by the US also reached a new high in history last year. Based on observations from various perspectives, the article argues that the Sino-US economic and trade relations may face a more difficult and complex situation.
國際政治經濟學視野下的歐洲與世界
【作者】任琳 鄭海琦
【導讀】近期歐洲形勢的變化聚焦在政治、經濟社會和安全議題方面，主要表現為大選穩中有變、難民和恐怖主義等非傳統安全隱患頻現、經濟復甦與潛在危機並存、英國脫歐進程緩慢艱難等方面。大選結果整體穩定，為經濟復甦帶來利好消息，但深層問題並未解決，不確定性依然存在。歐洲形勢的變動將深刻影響國際政治的權力格局、世界經濟和全球治理的基本圖景。就權力格局而言，歐盟作為一極的能力和影響力將有所削弱，美歐關係更為務實，俄歐關係有改善空間，中歐關係前景看好。就全球治理而言，各國仍需在貨幣、貿易、發展、安全領域加深合作以共同應對各種挑戰。作為與歐洲存在廣泛共同利益的行為體，中國需要積極應對歐洲變局帶來的機遇和挑戰，培育中歐信任關係，推動“一帶一路”與歐洲國家發展戰略的對接，共謀包容性發展和互利共贏的局面。
【關鍵詞】歐洲大選 難民危機 英國脫歐 中歐關係 全球治理
Europe and the World: An International Political Economics Perspective
Ren Lin and Zheng Haiqi
Recent developments in Europe mainly focus on political, economic, social and security issues, including non-traditional security issues, such as election, refugee and terrorism, and economic recovery mixed with potential crisis, and the slow progress of the "Brexit". Although the outcomes of general elections seem to be largely predictable, which is expected to benefit economic recovery, underlying problems remain and there are still great uncertainties. Changes in Europe may profoundly influence the power structure of international politics as well as the landscape of world economy and global governance. In terms of power structure, the EU’s capacity and influence as one pole shrinks; the EU-US relationship would become more pragmatic, the EU-Russia relations have some room to improve; and the China-Europe relations have promising prospects. In terms of global governance, major countries still need to deepen cooperation in the field of international currency, trade, development and security to jointly tackle various challenges. Sharing wide-range of common interests with Europe, China needs to get prepared for the opportunities and challenges brought by European transformations to deepen mutual trust and match the Belt and Road Initiative with Europe’s development strategy so that they can seek to achieve inclusive development that benefits both sides.
以市場化、產業化和數字化策略重構中國的農村金融
【作者】黃益平 王敏 傅秋子 張皓星
【導讀】如何做好農村金融服務是一個世界性的難題，而在中國諸如准入限制、借貸利率約束和治理結構扭曲等政策性因素進一步加劇了中國農村金融的供求矛盾。自2003年以來，中國政府採取了諸多農村金融的改革舉措，但多數只是起到修修補補的作用，甚至還有一些反市場的行政手段。妨礙農村金融發展的根本性障礙尚未被掃除，主要表現是金融服務機構無法真正做到市場定價，同時缺乏有效的風控手段。本文所提出的重構農村金融的方案包括三個策略、一個分層市場服務的思路和五條具體的政策建議。三個策略是指市場化、產業化和數字化，讓市場決定金融資源的定價與配置；利用產業鏈上的供求關係降低信息不對稱的程度；利用數字技術改變農村金融獲客成本高、風控難度大的制約。分層市場思路是指以供應鏈金融的手段服務農業大戶群體、以數字金融的做法滿足普通農戶或小微農村企業的金融服務需求並以軟信息等工具改善對個體農戶的金融服務。五條具體的政策建議：儘快實現市場化利率，增加農村金融服務的有效供給；建立平等准入的原則，鼓勵民營金融機構參與競爭，構建多層次的農村金融體系；遵循“誰出資、誰決策、誰負責”的原則理順農村信用社和其他農村金融機構的治理機制；支持數字技術的軟硬件設施的建設；重建中央和地方雙層的農村金融監管框架，統一標準、分散實施，建立有效的風險防範和處置機制。
【關鍵詞】農村金融 數字化 市場化 產業化
Reconstructing China’s Rural Finance Through Digital Technologies
Huang Yiping, Wang Min, Fu Qiuzi and Zhang Haoxing
It is a global challenge to improve rural financial service and it is even more challenging in China given various policy distortions. Since 2003, the Chinese government has taken a series of policy steps to promote inclusive finance in rural area but has failed to achieve much headway. Fundamentally, rural financial institutions are unable to conduct market-based risk-pricing and lack effective means of risk assessment. In this article, we propose three strategies for improving rural financial services: one is to allow free interest rate-setting; the second is to provide financial services for small and medium-sized producers utilizing supply chain information; and last but not least, it is digitalization of rural finance through taking advantage of mobile terminals and big data analysis. To implement those proposals, we also make several detailed policy recommendations.
中國金融系統性風險：主要來源、防範路徑與潛在影響
【作者】魏偉 陳驍 張明
【關鍵詞】系統性風險 金融監管 房地產 地方債 影子銀行
China’s Systemic Financial Risks: Major Sources, Measures of Prevention and Potential Impacts
Wei Wei, Chen Xiao and Zhang Ming
Prevention of systemic financial risks is the top priority of the government’s economic work in 2018. There are three main sources of systemic financial risk in China: real estate, local debt and shadow bank, which are intertwined to complicate the issue. The downturn in real estate prices could have a negative impact on banks’ balance sheets, household leverage, local government revenues, and economic growth. The risk of local debt is mainly reflected in the implicit guarantee of the government and hidden risks of debt replacement. Moreover, the PPP wave and the transformation of shantytowns have further increased the debt repayment pressure of the local governments. The continuous expansion of the shadow banking system has pushed up the overall risks of the financial system, resulting in prominent short-term liquidity risk and credit risk in the medium and long term. China needs to take measures to prevent worsening of systemic risks in three major areas. In the real estate sector, the regulatory policy should be maintained to dampen supply and demand in the short term to stabilize housing price. But in the long term, the authorities should adopt policies to encourage both housing rental and purchase, levy real estate holding taxes, and increase land supply. In terms of local government debt, borrowing of the local governments should be tightened and strictly regulated in the short term; in the long term, the mismatch between the functions and finance of the central and local governments should be addressed. Regarding shadow banking, the risk has been released to a certain extent, and monitoring of the off-balance sheet business, penetrating supervision and the complete breaking of rigid payment should be implemented in the future. In general, measures to prevent systemic risks will have a negative impact on macroeconomic soundness and financial markets in the short term, but will also bring new business opportunities.
基礎設施互聯互通建設是一個大規模資本動員過程
——兼議多邊開發性金融機制的先導引領性及其作用發揮響
【作者】袁東
【導讀】基礎設施互聯互通建設是“一帶一路”倡議實施的重點，也是亞洲乃至全球可持續發展的關鍵。這一建設是一個大規模資本動員過程。中國在這方面積累起了豐富的經驗，可供分享。融合政府與市場的作用，建立起開發性金融撬動與引領的先導機制，推進相關政府機構與項目主體具備進入中長期資本市場融資的能力，是中國經驗的核心內涵。亞投行的創建，是中國經驗共享的嘗試。亞投行應當積極連同其他多邊開發銀行，以及各國相關機構，共同起到組織動員商業資本和推動建立發展亞洲債券市場的作用。這是亞投行預期功能的應有之義。為此，需要具體經營管理者具有必備的前瞻性宏觀認識、專業素養、統籌把握和大膽探索創新的能力。
【關鍵詞】基礎設施互聯互通 資本動員 開發性金融機構 亞投行
Infrastructure Connectivity, Capital Mobilization and Multilateral Development Financial Mechanism
Yuan Dong
Infrastructure connectivity is the focus of the Belt and Road Initiative and also the key to the sustainable development of Asia and the whole world. It requires large-scale capital mobilization, in which China has accumulated rich experiences that it can share with other countries. China’s main experiences show that it is important to coordinate the roles of government and market, build a guiding mechanism for development finance, and promote the ability of relevant government agencies and market entities in financing from the capital market in the medium and long term. The establishment of AIIB is an attempt to share China’s experiences. The AIIB should actively work with other MDBs and unilateral development banking institutions to mobilize capital and push forward development of Asia’s bond market. To that end, it is necessary for top executives of the AIIB to have forward-looking macro knowledge, professional capacity, overall planning and innovative ability to tap market possibilities.
閱讀更多 中國社科經濟學 的文章
