01
今日，作为9月份的最后一个交易日，上证指数在万千股民的抱怨中，终于重上2800点，并以两阳夹一阴的上攻态势结束了节前的交易，给股民留下了长假之后会更好的想像。毕竟老大都说了，不管国企还是民企，都要支持发展壮大。总理也在百忙之中，修改行程，不顾舟车劳顿，去看望了民营的海上石化企业。一切都在朝着投资者期待的方向转变，更何况，我们11月份开始较大范围的减税，估计对进出口企业也会是个利好，本来各个国家的人民都是希望税收越少越好的。
02
由于第三季度，从股市上来说，今日已经结束了，所以将今年以来场内基金的表现拉了一个排行表，结果相当令我满意：前三季度，涨幅领先的基金只有两类，一类是油气类，另一类就是投资美国股市的基金！在标题中，我说我押中了一类，是因为我对其中的一类进行了真实的投资，而从判断上，我其实是两类都押中了，只不过去下半年的时候，油气类的基金表现太过反复，没有美股基金走小步、不停步地喜悦，所以明知道这一板块大概率会涨，还是耐不住性子清仓了。
直接上图：
从图上可以看出，涨幅最大的场内基金是原油类的基金，去年下半年，原油价格还在40到50美元一桶的范围内挣扎，经常是进2退1.8，虽然明知道油价在这个位置是待不住的，原油价格一定是走在上升通道内的，所以在公号里也一直有推荐原油类基金，但是受不了原油基金的烦，终于清仓了。
上述这些与石油挂钩的基金中，嘉实原油的表现最为稳定，基本上是一路上扬的，不过它的成交量在几只原油基金中相对较少，交易的便捷性不够。
其中最好玩的是易方达的原油基金，在年初1元左右的时候买进，到5月份创了新高1.67元，然后又一路回调到1.12元左右，然后再次上涨到1.55元，有两次大波段可以交易，如果有较好的判断能力，可以赚上两波，第一波可以有60%左右的收益，第二波也有约35%左右的收益，合起来收益率有望超过100%！当然如果一直持有不动，三个季度的收益也有46%，相当不错的。
目前，上述几只石油基金都存在不同程度的溢价，显示投资者对石油的未来依然十分看好，不过如果是打算新开仓的朋友，可以等待油价回调或是溢价减少再考虑进入。
03
而另一类基金却有幸拿住了，那就是投资美国股市的基金，因为美国基金表现实在太好了，基本上是大涨小回，节奏也很明显，盘中带了一帮小朋友偶尔弄个短差，基本上从没失手过，每次弄个3%，摊低一下定投的成本还是超级爽的。
从上表中可以看出，本号一直力推的纳指ETF以及美国消费，在场内基金的涨幅榜排名上都进入了前十，更可喜的是，涨幅都超过了20%！年化收益率均超过了25%！
其实此前之所以判断这两个板块成功率最高，还是从基本面来考虑的，原油类的基金，主要考虑到油价在40到50美元一桶实在偏低，基本上等于上个世纪70年代左右的价格水平，真是用脚趾头想想也不太可能，上涨是必然的。
而美国股市，虽然有加息的阴影，但是加息实际上反应的是经济增长比较强劲，而美国的减税，尤其是对企业的减税，加上美元对人民币的升值，以及美国对全球新的贸易关税的谈判，都有很大的可能增强美国企业的销售。
可以说，投资其实就是正确地预见什么是必然的，然后耐心地守候就行了。只不过，有时候必然性到来的比较晚，或是会经历多次的反复。所以，耐心是非常重要的。
04
当然，在眼下这个时点，一年前的历史数据或许已经太久远了。投资者可能最关心的还是9月份的基金表现。
从上表可以看出，原油，受伊朗被制裁、俄罗斯的出口也将受限的影响，油价依然走在上升通道之中，而消费类的白酒与食品相当强势，此外就是银行与保险加上上证50，基本上可以理解为是除了券商的金融机构，外加国防与军工走得比较强。
个人的判断是，银行与保险前景是相当不错的，军工题材不少，但是业绩不佳，只适合短炒，而消费类下半年往上半年走，是旺季，也有较好的买入价值。
平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金小程序~
双语阅读~
In the first three quarters, the two types of funds have risen well. I am in a category. What about you?
Today, as the last trading day in September, the Shanghai Composite Index finally regained 2,800 points in the complaints of thousands of investors, and ended the pre-holiday transaction with the two-in-one yin attack, leaving investors After the long holiday, it will be better and better.
After all, the boss said that regardless of state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, they must support the development and growth. The Prime Minister was also busy with the schedule, revised the itinerary, and went to the private offshore petrochemical enterprises regardless of the boat. Everything is changing in the direction that investors are expecting. What's more, we started a large-scale tax cut in November, and it is estimated that it will be a good thing for import and export companies. People in various countries hope that the tax is as small as possible.
Since the third quarter, from the stock market, today is over, so this year, the performance of the fund has pulled a ranking, the results are quite satisfactory to me: in the first three quarters, there are only two types of funds that lead the increase, one Classes are oil and gas, and the other is a fund that invests in the US stock market! In the title, I said that I was in a category because I made a real investment in one of them. From the judgment, I actually have two types of bets, but only in the second half of the year. The performance of oil and gas funds is too repetitive. There is no US stock fund to take a small step and not stop to be happy, so knowing that this sector will increase in probability, it is still unable to withstand the clearance.
Directly above:
As can be seen from the figure, the largest fund in the market is the crude oil fund. In the second half of last year, the crude oil price was still struggling within the range of 40 to 50 US dollars a barrel, often with a return of 1.8, although it is known that the oil price is This position is unstoppable, the price of crude oil must be in the rising channel, so there is always a recommendation for crude oil funds in the public number, but can not stand the annoyance of the crude oil fund, and finally cleared the position.
Among the above-mentioned oil-linked funds, Castrol crude oil has the most stable performance, basically rising all the way, but its trading volume is relatively small among several crude oil funds, and the transaction convenience is not enough.
At present, the above-mentioned several oil funds have different levels of premium, indicating that investors are still very optimistic about the future of oil, but if it is a friend who intends to open a new position, you can wait for the oil price to return or the premium to decrease before considering entering.
The most fun one is E Fund's crude oil fund, which was bought at around 1 yuan at the beginning of the year. It hit a new high of 1.67 yuan in May, then another round of callback to around 1.12 yuan, and then rose to 1.55 yuan again. The band can be traded. If you have good judgment, you can earn two waves. The first wave can have a profit of about 60%, and the second wave also has a profit of about 35%. Together, the yield is expected to exceed 100%! Of course, if you keep holding it, the income in the three quarters is 46%, which is quite good.
The other type of fund has the honor to take it, that is, the fund that invests in the US stock market, because the US fund table is actually too good, basically it is a big ups and downs, the rhythm is also very obvious, and a group of children are occasionally made in the dish. A short difference, basically never missed, every time you get 3%, the cost of a fixed investment is still super cool.
As can be seen from the above table, the Nasdaq ETF and the US consumption that this number has been pushing all have entered the top ten in the ranking of the fund's increase list. What is more gratifying is that the increase has exceeded 20%! Annualized yields are over 25%!
In fact, the reason why the two boards have the highest success rate is that they are considered from the fundamentals. The crude oil fund mainly considers that the oil price is really low at 40 to 50 US dollars, which is basically equal to the 1970s. The price level is really impossible to think about with the toes, and the rise is inevitable.
In the US stock market, although there is a shadow of interest rate hikes, the interest rate hike actually reflects the relatively strong economic growth, while the US tax cuts, especially for corporate tax cuts, plus the appreciation of the US dollar against the renminbi, and the US Negotiations on new trade tariffs are likely to increase sales of US companies.
It can be said that investment is actually predicting what is inevitable, and then waiting patiently. However, sometimes the inevitability comes later, or it will experience repeated iterations. Therefore, patience is very important.
Of course, at this point in time, the historical data of a year ago may have been too long. What investors may be most concerned about is the fund performance in September.
As can be seen from the above table, crude oil, due to Iran may be sanctioned, Russia's exports will also be limited, oil prices are still in the rising channel, while consumer liquor and food are quite strong, in addition to banks and insurance plus On the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, it can basically be understood as a financial institution other than brokers, plus defense and military workers are relatively strong.
Personal judgment is that the prospects of banking and insurance are quite good. There are many military themes, but the performance is not good. It is only suitable for short-term speculation, while the consumer category is going to the first half of the year, which is the peak season and has a good buying value.
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